Everyone is aware by now that K-State and KU are tied for the conference lead heading into the final day of the season.

Except they are not.

KU maintains the same advantage it held before downing Texas Tech on Senior Night, before K-State did the same to TCU.

KU’s advantage is that it has played Okie St in Stillwater, and K-State hasn’t.

That edge is offset somewhat by the fact that K-State has already played in Waco, and KU hasn’t. Overall, these two factors are reflected in the REAL Standings as a ½ game KU lead.

I mean, REALly, who would you rather play on the Road with a championship on the line, Okie St or Baylor? A team that has won 10 of its last 12 games or one that has lost 5 of 6, including two Home games (OU and K-State) and a fairly non-competitive game against Texas on the Road–whose only win during this time has been at West Virginia? And that’s without even mentioning their “coach.”

As calculated in the last REAL Standings report, KU has (approximately) a 44% chance of standing alone with the Big 12 Championship trophy at the end of the evening Saturday. K-State: 11%. There is also a 44% likelihood that the two teams will share the crown, basking both in glory: KU’s ninth straight Big 12 title, and K-State’s second co-championship of the year in the two sports that matter. (But who, REALly, wants to see the latter?)

For those who do not want to look it up (even though you could), here are the possibilities:

• KU wins the title outright: 44%. KU beats Baylor in Waco (66%) and K-State loses to Okie St in Stillwater (66%)
• K-State wins the title outright: 11%. Baylor beats KU (33%) and K-State beats Okie St (33%)
• KU and K-State tie at 14-4: 22%. KU wins (66%) and K-State wins (33%)
• KU and K-State tie at 13-5: 22% KU loses (33%), K-State loses at Stillwater (66%)

Of course, an 88% chance of being outright or co-champions is not the same as 100%. Despite being “coached” by Scott Drew, Baylor is still a dangerous team on the right night. They have talent and athleticism that would rank at the top of the conference in a Superstars or skills competition. They have taken KU down twice in recent years in the Big 12 tourney when they simply wanted and needed the game more than the Jayhawks.

That shouldn’t be the case Saturday night. Baylor might be fighting for its NCAA Tournament life, but the Hawks will be playing for a championship.

Because of the coaching differential, KU will likely be home free if they take an early lead and require Baylor to find some motivation and composure in playing from behind.

One thing I will discount is the possibility of another TCU-like effort by KU. The Jayhawks have done that, which is why they won’t do it again.

As for K-State, they are playing a more talented team on the Road. Always a tough combination. And throw in a team coming off a loss. And it’s Senior Night.

Yes, KU has the advantage. It has the lead heading into the final game of the season. No matter what the newspaper standings say.

What KU doesn’t have is that last 11-12%. They still have to show up for a game against some talented players.

But, then, that is Self’s forte.

In mid-week action, only Texas picked up ground in the REAL World, at Baylor’s expense, UT won that at-risk game in Austin.

In other games, the projected winners all prevailed at Home: KU over Tech, K-State over TCU, Oklahoma over West Virginia, and Iowa St over Okie St (labeled a “stunner” on ESPN’s crawl and as an “upset” elsewhere—are these “experts” not aware that ISU is kinda good at Home?)

THE CURRENT 2013 SEASON REAL TIERS (Subject to change)

1. Tier One: ISU/KU/KSU/OU/OSU

2. Tier Two: Baylor

3. Tier Three: Texas/West Virginia

4. Tier Four: Texas Tech

5. Tier 5: TCU

THE CURRENT 2013 REAL STANDINGS:

1. 14.5-3.5

KU (14-3) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: at BU

2. 14-4

K-State (14-3) Projected L’s: at OSU
At-risk games: None

3. 13-5

Okie St (12-5) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: None

4. 12-6

Oklahoma (11-6) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: None

5. 11-7

Iowa St (10-7) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: None

6. 8.5-9.5

Baylor (8-9) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: KU

7. 6.5-11.5

Texas (6-11) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: at Tech

8. 6-12

W. Virginia (6-11) Projected L’s: ISU
At-risk games: None

9. 3.5-14.5

Texas Tech (3-14) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: UT

10. 1-17

TCU (1-16) Projected L’s: OU
At-risk games: None

:

What to Watch on Judgment Day

1. K-State at Okie St**** (12:30p.m.) (Projected W: Okie St)

K-State plays for its first conference championship in basketball in 36 years, as well as distinction of being the first co-champions in both sports that matter in the same academic year. (Yes, OU and UT have claimed championships in both sports before in the same academic year, but not as co-champions.)

2. Iowa St at West Virginia** (12:30p.m.) (Projected W: ISU)

The Mountaineers have nothing to play for other than to end a five game losing streak. Still, Iowa St’s 3 point frenzy isn’t as magical on the Road as it is in Hilton Coliseum. Hell, they lost at Tech. If they can blow it there, they can blow it anywhere.

3. Texas at Texas Tech**1/2 (3:00p.m.) (At-risk game)

UT is looking good at Home with Kabongo at the helm. Here is a legit chance to grab a W on the Road.

4. Oklahoma at TCU* (4:00p.m.). (Projected W: OU)

And they call the last player taken in the NFL Draft irrelevant. . .

5. KU at Baylor**** (5:00p.m.)*(At-risk game)

Pretty important game if you hadn’t heard.

–Mark

KU fans are insufferable. From Coast to Coast. This according to an Iowa State fan named Paul Shirley. Who was also an Iowa State basketball player. Who was also a self-acknowledged KU fan, having grown up within an hour of Lawrence, before not being offered a scholarship by KU and becoming an Iowa St player.

He has a point. However, as my mother used to say, if he puts on a hat, no one will notice.

Seriously, he ctually does have a point. There are insufferable KU fans from Coast to Coast.

So what else is new? There are insufferable fans of every team from Coast to Coast. Including Iowa St. It’s just that fans of teams that win a lot get noticed more, because they have more opportunities to say things that are viewed by fans of less successful teams as arrogant, gloating, or condescending—even when they are not.

The converse is also true. There are good fans of every team, Coast to Coast. Even Iowa St. Even—dare I say it on the PhogBlog—Mizzou.

So what is it that set this particular Iowa St fan off this time?

A KU fan in Los Angeles did not react the way Paul Shirley wanted him to react when Paul Shirley broached the topic of last Monday’s KU victory over Iowa St in Ames.

Paul Shirley wanted the KU fan to agree with him that the Jayhawks’ win was illegitimate, that Iowa St REALly deserved the victory, and it was wrongfully taken from them by the officials. And he would charitably (his word) allow this KU fan to “save face” for laying claim to the Jayhawks’ undeserved victory by muttering something about ”how when you watch basketball, you’ve implicitly agreed to terms — that human error might determine the outcome of the game.”

In other words, he was beneficently giving the KU fan an opportunity to stop enjoying his team’s hard fought victory and, instead, beg forgiveness for his team for accepting credit for a game stolen from the game’s rightful winner.

And the Jayhawk fan’s sin?

He acknowledged that bad calls were made throughout the game and was disappointed that the only one anyone wanted to talk about was the last one.

This was such an insufferable statement that Paul Shirley rolled his eyes, it being inconceivable that a bad call that kept Jeff Withey out of the game for five minutes or so in the second half might have aided Iowa St’s cause, allowing the Cyclones to be in position in the final seconds of regulation where the refs making a no call in a charge/block situation might affect the outcome.

In Paul Shirley’s defense, this KU fan’s buddy did follow with a statement that could more reasonably be interpreted as insufferable (assuming that Paul Shirley quotes him acccuratelt): “I’m just glad we could win when we weren’t playing well. We played our worst game and they played their best and we still came out on top.”

Obviously, KU did not play its worst game. That was against the Topeka YMCA.
In fact, the Jayhawks were forced to play an incredible game—at least offensively—to even hang around in the face of ISU’s unprecedented three point barrage and amazing free throw shooting prior to the “last one”—the one no one apparently wants to talk about.

Still, Paul Shirley takes this anecdote and concludes: “No matter where you go, no matter where you live, a Kansas fan is a Kansas fan: implacable, insufferable and perfectly happy to stay that way.”

Seems to me like that conclusion says more about Paul Shirley than it does about any KU fan.

Paul Shirley’s screed is at: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130301/SPORTS020604/303010092/Paul-Shirley-Kansas-fans-insufferable-from-coast-coast?nclick_check=1

–Mark
.

It is a sad day.

I am about to run out of Scott Drew jokes.

Wait. How about this one?

Did you hear about the game where Baylor was tied with one second left in the game? At Home? And had possession of the ball?

They lost in regulation.

No, REALLy!

No, REALly! This is not a joke.

Well, okay, it is a joke. Just not a made up one.

It would be funny except that this coaching fiasco kept KU from virtually clinching at least a share of the Big 12 championship for the ninth consecutive year.

Assuming KU and K-State win mid-week Home games vs. Texas Tech and TCU respectively, it all comes down to next Saturday when K-State takes its show on the Road to Stillwater and KU gets to find out what Scott Drew has up his new Adidas uniform’s sleeves in Waco.

Barring a mind-boggling upset by either Tech or TCU early in the week, here are the remaining possibilities and my assessment of the likelihood of each:

• KU wins the title outright: 44%. KU beats Baylor in Waco (66%) and K-State loses to Okie St in Stillwater (66%)
• K-State wins the title outright: 11%. Baylor beats KU (33%) and K-State beats Okie St (33%)
• KU and K-State tie at 14-4: 22%. KU wins (66%) and K-State wins (33%)
• KU and K-State tie at 13-5: 15%. KU loses (33%), K-State loses at Stillwater (66%), and Okie St loses to Iowa ST at Ames on Wednesday (66%).
• KU, K-State, and Okie St tie at 13-5: 7%. KU loses (33%), K-State loses (66%), and Okie St beats ISU in Ames on Wednesday (33%)

In sum, K-State picked up ½ game in the REAL World with its W at Baylor. Nothing of significance happened in any other game Saturday, with the projected winners prevailing at Home in each case: KU over West Virginia, Oklahoma over Iowa St, Texas Tech over TCU, and Okie ST over UT.

THE CURRENT 2013 SEASON REAL TIERS (Subject to change)

1. Tier One: ISU/KU/KSU/OU/OSU

2. Tier Two: Baylor

3. Tier Three: Texas/West Virginia

4. Tier Four: Texas Tech

5. Tier 5: TCU

THE CURRENT 2013 REAL STANDINGS:

1. 14.5-3.5

KU (13-3) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: at BU

2. 14-4

K-State (13-3) Projected L’s: at OSU
At-risk games: None

3. 13-5

Okie St (12-4) Projected L’s: at ISU
At-risk games: None

4. 12-6

Oklahoma (10-6) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: None

5. 11-7

Iowa St (9-7) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: None

6. 9-9

Baylor (8-8) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: at UT, KU

7. 6-12

W. Virginia (6-10) Projected L’s: at OU, ISU
At-risk games: None

Texas (5-11) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: BU, at Tech

9. 3.5-14.5

Texas Tech (3-13) Projected L’s: at KU
At-risk games: UT

10. 1-17

TCU (1-15) Projected L’s: at K-State, OU
At-risk games: None

What to Watch

Monday

1. Texas Tech at KU*1/2 (6:00p.m.) (Projected W: KU)

Nothing to see here. Move along.

2. Baylor at Texas*** (8:00p.m.) (At-risk game)

Texas should have won the game in Waco without Kabongo. Of course, Baylor was without Drew. If Baylor would suspend Drew for this game, they will only have to overcome Kabongo.

Tuesday

3. TCU at K-State*(7:00p.m.) (Projected W: K-State)

Nothing to see here. Keep moving.

Wednesday

4. Okie St at Iowa St**** (6:00p.m.). (Projected W: Iowa St)

Okie St tries to keep its hopes alive for a tri-championship. ISU is in danger of moving to Bubble City. Could be a game to rival last week’s KU at Iowa St contest.

5. West Virginia at Oklahoma** (8:00p.m.) (Projected W: OU)

OU fights to the bitter end for the all-important 4 seed in the Big 12 tourney.

–Mark

OMG. Did this REALly happen?

Did Baylor REALly come from behind on the Road to defeat the seventh best team in the Big 12?

Indeed, they did. Take that, Scott Drew critics!

Today West Virginia. Tomorrow the sixth best team.

Oh, wait. That would be Baylor.

At any rate, give credit where it’s due. A nice win for BU, and a nice effort by Isaiah Austin. It will be difficult for even Scott Drew to screw this guy up. The question is how much time will he have to accomplish that feat?

Anyway, a half game pick-up for Baylor in the REAL world.

Picking up a full game was UT, taking down Oklahoma in overtime at Home after trailing by 22 points at the 7:52 mark. A horns down taunt and a damn good Elijah Johnson imitation by Myck Kabongo, and UT turned a projected loss into its best W of the year.

In other “news,” Okie St, beat TCU as projected in Fort Worth.

THE CURRENT 2013 SEASON REAL TIERS (Subject to change)

1. Tier One: ISU/KU/KSU/OU/OSU

2. Tier Two: Baylor

3. Tier Three: Texas/West Virginia

4. Tier Four: Texas Tech

5. Tier 5: TCU

THE CURRENT 2013 REAL STANDINGS:

1. 14.5-3.5

KU (12-3) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: at BU

2. 13.5-4.5

K-State (12-3) Projected L’s: at OSU
At-risk games: at BU

3. 13-5

Okie St (11-4) Projected L’s: at ISU
At-risk games: None

4. 12-6

Oklahoma (9-6) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: None

5. 11-7

Iowa St (9-6) Projected L’s: at OU
At-risk games: None

6. 9.5-8.5

Baylor (8-7) Projected L’s: None
At-risk games: KSU, at UT, KU

7. 6-12

W. Virginia (6-9) Projected L’s: at KU, at OU, ISU
At-risk games: None

Texas (5-10) Projected L’s: at OSU
At-risk games: BU, at Tech

9. 3.5-14.5

Texas Tech (2-13) Projected L’s: at KU
At-risk games: UT

10. 1-17

TCU (1-14) Projected L’s: at Tech, at K-State, OU
At-risk games: None

What to Watch

Saturday

1. Iowa St at Oklahoma**** (12:30p.m.) (Projected W: OU)

The PTSD game. The team that made 17 threes and 22 consecutive free throws and lost vs. the team that had a 22 point lead against the conference’s 8th place team in the final eight minutes and lost in OT. Whichever team gets over it first will have a decided edge.

2. West Virginia at KU** (1:00p.m.) (Projected W: KU)

KU has overlooked teams before. But that was before Perry Ellis had adjusted to Big 12 basketball.

3. Texas at Okie St***(3:00p.m.) (Projected W: OSU)

Suddenly, Kabongo is running an effective offense, and UT is competitive. The question is whether they can take their act on the Road. We will find out here.

4. TCU at Texas Tech* (3:00p.m.). (Projected W: Tech)

Where else have you read the words, “Projected W: Tech” in recent memory?

5. K-State at Baylor (5:00p.m.)**** (At-risk game)

Dangerous, dangerous game for K-State, on the Road with Baylor pumped up after its best win of the season, Scott Drew believing he can coach, and Isaiah Austin believing he’s a man. Maybe THE man. If he has grown up enough to be the man consistently, the Jayhawks might wake up Sunday morning with only Tech at Home standing between them and clinching at least a share of the Big 12 crown.

On the other hand, we’re still talking about Scott Drew and Baylor. . .

–Mark