Some Insight: Tastes Like Tiger

posted by Mark on 1/3/2009 - -


The Insight Bowl was a fun time for all. Not as magical, nor as mystical, as the event 52 weeks earlier in Miami, but fun nevertheless.

Which is the positive of the bowl system. It gives teams like KU and Minnesota, who are in the “Others receiving votes” category (or even not that high in the college football pecking order) a nice outing to far off distant and (usually) warmer climes the last week of December, and give their fans an opportunity to enjoy watching and/or following their team one final time before the full onset of basketball season.

So keep the thirty bowls that are nothing more than exhibitions. Nothing wrong with having a little fun.

But for God’s sake, let’s have a few meaningful games as well. It is hard for me to understand why anyone would not want to see the top teams play each other with something on the line. And who wouldn’t want to see more games between teams from major conferences in September, rather than having to wait until December because the top teams refuse to play each other in the regular season—afraid that a loss will knock them out of contention for the pretend National Championship?

The BCS has destroyed September and December, with its proponents proclaiming that a playoff would undermine October and November—which, of course, is bull.

As I have noted before, there is no good reason to deny the teams and the fans a playoff. At some point, what is logical and right will prevail: we will have fewer exhibition games and more games that matter.

Until that day, the Insight, Alamo, Cotton, Orange, Sugar, Rose, Fiesta, et al., will still be fun.

But just fun.

Take it to the Bank: Finals Edition

posted by Mark on 12/2/2008 - -

Heading into the final weekend of the college football season, the Take it to the Bank record against the spread is 108-97. (You could look it up.)

Although these picks are always for entertainment purposes only, anyone who had been foolish enough to take them seriously and wagered the same amount on every game all season would have won 52.6%–just above the break even point, taking into account the normal 5% vigorish charged by most sports books.

Because of the dearth of games on this week’s schedule, we have to employ Thursday night and high handicap contests to manage a full slate of games.

Thursday

1. Louisville +10.5 at Rutgers

Two trends tend to favor the Scarlet Knights: Their five game winning streak and Louisville’s four game losing streak. With the Home Field as added motivation, I’ll take:

RUTGERS

Friday

2. Buffalo +15 vs. Ball St (Detroit)

Buffalo is one of the most improved teams in the NCAA this season. MAC Eastern Division Champions. Rumor has it that Baylor is seeking a move to that conference and division as early as next year.

No, Buffalo can’t pull the outright upset. But can they stay within 15 of David Letterman’s undefeated alma mater?

Dave has ten reasons why they can’t.

BALL ST

Saturday

3. Navy -10.5 vs. Army (Philadelphia)

The Midshipmen sail to another big victory in this recently uneven series.

NAVY

4. Pitt +3 at. UConn

Two inconsistent teams. How in the world did UConn beat BCS-Bound Cincinnati by 24, then turn around and lose to West Virginia by 22—both at Home? I like UConn at Home. But I also like the three points Pitt is getting.

Not much to choose between these teams. I look to Pitt to suffer a slight letdown after their big win last week vs. WVU.

UCONN

5. South Florida +7 vs. West Virginia

It seems like a long time ago that USF vs. KU was a battle of ranked teams, both thinking BCS Bowls were in their future. They kind of exposed each other that fateful Friday night.

The Mountaineers come out with a vengeance to wash away the bad taste of the Pitt game. West Virginia’s #5 makes his last game in Morgantown a memorable one.

WVU

6. Washington +35 at Cal

Washington wins or goes winless. Is there anyone left who even cares?

CAL

7. Southern Cal -32.5 at UCLA

UCLA traditionally plays their arch-rivals tough in this series. Not this year, as USC makes its case for the opportunity to play Bama or FU on January 8. Think UT vs. A&M—if A&M had been even worse than they were.

USC

8. Arizona +10.5 at Arizona St

It is a little known fact that, before man migrated to what we now call Arizona—before even those we refer to as Native Americans—the animals of the area governed themselves. The primary law enforcement creatures were Grizzlies—which is why policemen, even today, are referred to as Bears. Anyway, not all of the animals were good and honorable. Otherwise there would have been no need for the Grizzlies. On one fateful day, a gang of wolves (what some would call a pack) teamed up and attacked one of the Grizzlies making his appointed rounds. The Grizzly put up a valiant fight, but there were simply too many bad guys to fend off. When he finally fell, the wolves ran off, feeling free to wreak havoc wherever they wished. The Grizzly, freed from fending off his attackers, reached for his two way radio and called his dispatcher. “Bear Down!” he said, weakly. Then again: “Bear Down.”

True story.

History does not record whether or to what extent the Grizzly recovered. But Arizona’s Wildcats have adopted his words as its unofficial motto to this day.

And that is exactly what they will do this weekend: Bear Down!

AU

9. Cincinnati -7 at Hawaii

As noted earlier, Cincinnati is not your typical BCS Bowl team, having been routed by a fair to middlin’ UConn team. And a lot of teams lose their focus in post-conference jaunts to paradise. Not to mention that Hawaii has appeared to be improving as the season has progressed.

But Cincy is good. And they do not want to be a laughingstock heading into their first ever BCS appearance.

CINCINNATI

10. Arkansas St +11 at Troy

Arkansas St beat A&M, for what it’s worth. Troy did everything but beat LSU in Baton Rouge, for what that’s worth.

What might be worth something is that, in their last nine games against the spread, ASU is 2-9, and Troy is 6-3.

TROY

11. Western Kentucky +7 at Florida International

The Hilltoppers are on a seven game losing streak. FIU only two—and they are at Home.

FIU

12. East Carolina +13.5 at Tulsa

The Pirates started the season like they intended to be a BCS party-crasher, taking out both Va Tech and West Virginia. They since have gone 6-4. But they know how to play big games. They might win this one outright. Even if they don’t, they should be able to stay within two TD’s.

EAST CAROLINA

13. Boston College vs. Va Tech (Pick) (Tampa)

This game is for all the marble. The ACC is not good enough to have more than one this year. In fact, consider this: Cincinnati and one of these teams will be in a BCS Bowl, while Texas Tech is playing in a second tier bowl game. Please, someone stop the insanity. You would think with all of UT’s spare change and T. Boone Pickens’ windmill money, someone could buy off the college presidents who put their own personal agendas ahead of the kids who play the game.

Still, one of these teams is going to play in a big money but big meaningless Bowl Game. Although not a Christian attitude, BC has revenge on its mind.

BOSTON COLLEGE

14. Alabama +9.5 vs. Florida (Atlanta)

When was the last time the undefeated No. 1 ranked team in the country was a 9 and ½ point underdog to a team that lost to Ole Miss at Home? Ever?

I think not.

FU might be the better team. But this is the “I can’t believe it’s not butter” game. I am not buying this spread.

ALABAMA

15. Mizzou +17 vs. Oklahoma (Kansas City)

This game will be closer than most people think. After last week’s loss to KU in Arrowhead, Mizzou has nothing to lose. They will play free and loose, and, as a result, are likely to just make plays. Their defense is inferior to OU’s, but not by much. Likewise, their offense is inferior, but not by much. And their special teams are much better.

Nor will MU be intimidated by the atmosphere in KC as they were last year in San Antonio. They will feel right at Home. And, having played OU reasonably close twice last year (despite the final margins, both games were within reach in the fourth quarter), they will not be intimidated by the mere sight of the OU uniforms. They also have the revenge factor. Not to mention the self-respect factor: if they limp into their bowl game with four losses and on a two game losing streak, everything the program has accomplished the last two years will be suspect.

The pressure is all on OU. If they don’t get off to a fast start, it could be a long night. If Mizzou scores first, a la KU last weekend, and can control the rhythm of the game, they will make OU more uncomfortable than the Sooners would like—and give UT reason to dream of Miami, much as Baylor did last Saturday in Lubbock. Except that Mizzou is less likely to stop scoring than Baylor.

The Sooners certainly have the ability to cover this spread if they are on top of their game. But if they feel the pressure or are just a little out of synch, an outright win by Mizzou is not out of the question in Chase Daniels’ last chance to demonstrate that he can play big time football in a big time game.

MIZZOU

–Mark

OU vs. Texas: Stop the Whining Whitlock, Herbstreit, James. . .

posted by Mark on 12/1/2008 - -

Jason Whitlock threw in his two cents this morning on the three way tie scenario that plagued the South. His take was, basically, UT beat OU head to head on a neutral field. Case closed. Yada, yada, yada. Blah, blah, blah.

Notwithstanding Whitlock and his mental challenged compatriots like Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit, Craig James, et al., and Mack Brown’s whining, there is no (as in ZERO) justification for throwing out Texas Tech (a flukey team, according to Whitlock) and comparing only the other two head to head. Even in the case of a two way tie, head to head is not a logical way of breaking the tie. It is merely a convenient way.

The question that gets lost in the shuffle is: Why is Team A (Texas in this case) only tied for the lead if it won the head to head game with team B (OU)?

The answer, of course, is that, the rest of the time, it was losing more games. In this case, Texas was 6-1 in other conference games, 4-1 in games vs. common opponents (the South plus KU), and 3-1 vs. the South. Meanwhile, OU was better in all comparisons: 7-0, 5-0, and 4-0. What the head-to-headers insist on is that OU beat Texas by two games (8-0 to 6-2) or stay home because they lost the wrong one.

Not saying that OU is necessarily more deserving than UT. Just saying that the argument that UT should be given preference because they beat OU head to head—a questionable argument even in a two team situation–is ludicrous in a three way.

And, no, the fact that Tech lost much (if not all) of its credibility by losing a game by 44 points does not mean they should be removed from the equation, reducing the argument to two teams to then be decided by the outcome of the game between those two. UT did not make Tech irrelevant. Indeed, it was UT that made Tech relevant by losing to them. It was OU that is totally responsible for Tech’s fall from grace. The Sooners should be punished for being too good?

In a way, however, it is good that Texas is the team left out in the cold (barring a Mizzou upset of OU). Teams like Georgia, KU, and Auburn getting screwed will never lead to change in the system.

As they say in Austin, “Money Talks.” A few more of the big boys getting screwed will eventually lead to a decent playoff format involving teams and conferences throughout the country. Not this year, for sure. Maybe not in the next few years. But the more teams like UT, Ohio St, Southern Cal, and other blue (or should I say green) bloods get the short end of the BCS stick, the more likely a REAL playoff system becomes.

As a certain playoff proponent would declare: “Yes, We Can!”

Addendum:

A friend of PB has noted that KU is UT’s only road win against a team with a winning record,
while OU beat a better OSU team and TT beat both KU and 7-5 Nevada. OU
also scheduled a non-conference road game against a BCS opponent
(Washington, which admittedly sucked this year), while UT didn’t even
leave their home state to play at UTEP. Further, OU beat two BCS top
15 schools in non-conference play (TCU and Cincinnati), while UT didn’t
play anyone in the top 25, so OU is 4-1 vs. the BCS top 15 (all wins by
at least 20 points), while UT is only 2-1 (neither win by more than 10
points.) Against the whole BCS top 25 UT is 3-1. OU can move to 5-1
by beating MU on Saturday.

Where Is the Outrage about Mizzou’s Schedule?

Where is the outrage over Mizzou winning the Big 12 North solely because of its weak schedule?

Last year, KU was given a lot of grief and accused of being a fraud because the Jayhawks “avoided” Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. And wrongfully so. Texas and Tech last year were no better than two teams the Hawks played on the Road: Okie St (where Tech lost and UT escaped with a miracle fourth quarter), and A&M (where Texas lost)—and this doesn’t even account for UT’s 20 point loss at Home to k-state and its near death experience at Home vs. a Nebraska team that KU routed in an historical manner.

Playing Baylor instead of OU? Okay, you’ve got a point.

This year, Mizzou has had the schedule advantage, yet no one even mentions it.

In the Big 12 North, both Mizzou and KU are 4-1 (as is NU). In common opponents (the North and UT), both teams are 4-2. NU is also 4-2 vs. common opponents with Mizzou (the North plus Baylor); and vs. common opponents with KU (the North plus Tech).

So why is Mizzou playing in the Big 12 title game as the North’s sacrificial lamb, rather than KU? The Jayhawks, after all, beat the Tigers head to head on a neutral field?

Okay—so the Big 12 3 way tie-breaker discards head to head (and rightfully so), and Mizzou wins the hypothetical BCS ratings fiasco. Nevertheless, the ONLY reason Mizzou has an edge in the Big 12 North standings and has avoided the three way tie scenario is its schedule.

Mizzou’s non-common conference opponents vis a vis KU are Okie St at Home and Baylor in Waco vs. Texas Tech at home and Oklahoma in Norman. I will allow that Tech and Okie St are comparable opponents, making the teams’ comparable records 4-3.

But Baylor in Waco vs. OU in Norman? You decide whether Mizzou’s W at Baylor (a game they would have lost had a Baylor defender not dropped an easy Pick-6 in the last two minutes of a tie game) means they are more deserving than a team that had to play in a stadium where OU has lost twice in the Bob Stoops era.

The guess here is that Mizzou is 4-4 had they played OU rather than Baylor, and KU is 5-3 had the Hawks visited Waco instead of Norman.

At any rate, there is no logical basis for anyone concluding that Mizzou is a better team or a more deserving one than KU.

Take it to the Bank: Week 14’s Games

posted by Mark on 11/26/2008 - -

What has the world come to when Texas is such a big favorite over A&M (35 points) that it is not even a game worth picking against the spread?

Take Thanksgiving Day off. The REAL action begins Friday:

1. Mississippi St +16 at Ole Miss

Stop me before I give Ole Miss too much credit for beating LSU.

Mississippi St

2. LSU -4.5 at Arkansas

Two great names in the world of college football that suck out loud. I mean OUT LOUD!

If LSU’s Pretend National Championship team can’t beat the Razorbacks in Baton Rouge, how is their Pretend Team this year going to win on the Road?

ARKANSAS

3. Colorado +18 at Nebraska.

Eighteen is a lot of points. But Colorado gives up a lot of points. And doesn’t score many. Bad combination.

NU

4. Fresno St +21 at Boise St

Boise St is undefeated, ranked in the Top 10, and headed for the Poinsettia or Blue Field Bowl. They take out their frustrations over the fiasco that is the BCS on Fresno.

BSU

5. UCLA +10 at Arizona St

The Bruins get caught looking ahead to their cross-town rivals.

ASU

Saturday

6. Miami (FL) -1.5 at NC State

Two teams finally hitting their stride. Home field makes the difference.

NCSU

7. Vanderbilt +3.5 at Wake Forest

Two teams that, like our beloved Jayhawks, have gone from dreams of grandeur to illusions of adequacy. The Demon Deacons are more than adequate at Home.

WAKE

8. UNC -7.5 at Duke

College Game Day. ESPN, ESPN 2, ESPNU, ESPN 360, Dick Vitale. The most overhyped event in all of sports.

Oops. Getting three months ahead of myself.

The first step in a sweep of the two sports that matter is taken by:

UNC

9. Baylor +22 at Texas Tech

How does Tech rebound from the butt whipping it experienced in Norman? My guess is that they have been thrown off their stride and start slowly—but pull away late on the High Plains.

TECH

10. KU +16 vs. Mizzou (K.C.)

Vegas was late to discover how good KU was last year—hence, the Hawks’ 12-1 record not only on the field of play, but also against the spread. I fear the reverse has happened this year.

MIZZOU

11. Oklahoma -7 at Okie St

I would not be surprised if the team that beat Mizzou in Columbia and did everything but beat Texas in Austin were to take OU out of the Pretend Championship Picture. Or if the team that was stomped by Tech in Lubbock was stomped in Stillwater.

OU

12. Auburn +14 at Alabama

Bama has a major score to settle with their arch-rival and tormentors of recent years.

ALABAMA

13. Florida -16.5 at Florida St

The Gators are feeling it. If the Seminoles stay within this spread, it will be the upset of the week.

FU

14. Kentucky +4.5 at Tennessee

An indication of how screwy the BCS system is: Phillip Fullmer has a Pretend National Championship on his resume.

A win Saturday, and he goes out avoiding the ignominy of being the only Tennessee coach to lose eight games in a season.

TENNESSEE

15. Oregon +3 at Oregon St

The Ducks would enjoy nothing more than depriving the Beavers of a spot in the Rose Bowl. This nailbiter will be decided by a two point conversion in the third OT.

OREGON

–Mark

Take it to the Bank: Pre-Thanksving Games

posted by Mark on 11/21/2008 - -

Guess I misread the situation in the KU-Texas game last weekend. Yes, I correctly took UT minus 13 points. But I anticipated that the bogus calls would come late in the game if the Jayhawks were in position to pull the upset.

But Nooooooooo. . . The Big 12 refs couldn’t wait longer than UT’s third play from scrimmage to step in and salvage a Longhorn drive that was otherwise 3 and out. The free first down led to seven points.

Not that it was necessary. KU would have been hard pressed to win this game even had Kerry Meier and Jake Sharp been at full strength. Still, another bogus pass interference call kept alive a third quarter drive and squelched the Jayhawks’ last hope of crawling back into the game. And KU was not good enough, as Tech had been two weeks earlier, to overcome a UT T.D. aided by the officials picking up a flag for a block in the back, and an imaginary offensive pass interference call (why does that ring a bell?) that kept UT in the game (within 6 points rather than 10) in the fourth quarter—allowing the Horns to take the lead before Tech’s Mario Chalmers moment.

Speaking of Tech, the Red Raiders headline the games of Week 13:

1. Texas Tech +7 at Oklahoma

Everything favors OU in this game: They have the revenge factor. A 23 game home winning streak, the longest in the country. They have lost but two home games in the Bob Stoops era. They are “at home” as well in big game situations. Another big game to the Sooners is like—well—another big game to the Jayhawks in Allen Fieldhouse.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has never been in a game of this magnitude in its history. Yes, the same was true three weeks ago when the Red Raiders played UT in a battle of unbeatens, but (a) that game was at Home, and (b) this week’s game is further along the pressure path that leads to posterity. A win Saturday, and a berth on the Pretend National Championship Game is Tech’s to lose—or should I say give away. Wins over Baylor and Mizzou, both games in which Tech will be heavily favored, and Tech goes from having never played in a BCS Bowl game to playing Florida or Alabama for all the Pretend Marbles college football has to offer.

How can Tech not choke? How can they stay within one score of mighty Oklahoma?

They not only can, they will. They are the better team. If they have early success, they will roll the Sooners. If they fall behind early, they will continue playing, and once they start scoring, they will keep scoring against OU’s vulnerable defense. Think KU vs. Mizzou last year. Mizzou loosened up first, but when the Hawks started to score, they weren’t stopped, they simply ran out of time. Tech might not be able to pull it out on the Road. OU might lose by 14 or more or win by less than 7. Either way, the point spread winner is:

TEXAS TECH

2. Iowa St +10 at k-state

How in the world is k-state going to beat anyone by 10?

On the other hand, how in the world is Iowa St going to stay within 10 of anyone?

Quite the conundrum.

The Prince formerly known as Coach goes out in style. Kind of.

k-state

3. Illinois -3 at Northwestern

Which raises the question: What is Northwestern Northwest of? Or was it named after San Antonio attorney North West?

What I do know is that neither team is bad. Neither team is good. Just the sort of opponent KU would be happy to see in the Insight Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

I’ll take the Home Dog.

NORTHWESTERN

4. B.C. +2 at Wake Forest

Illinois at Northwestern: ACC Version. Except for the Home team being favored.

WAKE

5. Michigan +21 at Ohio St

Here’s the deal, Michigan. Take the 2 mil or so you owe West Virginia for stealing their coach and place it on the Buckeyes giving the points.

Voila. Problem solved.

OHIO ST

6. Michigan St +14 at Penn St

Penn St is one play from being one game from playing on January 8. They will win this game. But, damn, 14 is a lot of points against a good team.

MICHIGAN ST

7. Iowa -5.5 at Minnesota

The Gophers are another tempting Home Dog. I’ll bite.

MINNESOTA

8. Tennessee +3 at Vanderbilt

The Volunteers are one of only two college football programs that have never lost eight games in one season. They are 3-7.

And then there was one.

Ohio St if you’re wondering.

VANDY

9. Arkansas -1 Mississippi St

Don’t look now, but at 4-6, the Razorbacks still have a shot at going bowling. If they win out.

ARKANSAS

10. Ole Miss +4 at LSU

Don’t let LSU’s pathetic effort vs. Troy fool you.

The Bayou Bengals REALly are kind of pathetic.

In fact, if I think on this game too much, I might not take:

LSU

11. Syracuse +19.5 at Notre Dame

Vegas is dead on with this spread. Twenty points is too many for Notre Dame to give even a team as bad as Syracuse. Likewise, nineteen is too few.

Notre Dame covers on a last minute touchdown. Jesus!

ND

12. Washington -7 at Washington St

Washington St has not come within seven points of a Division 1 team all season. Then again, Washington has not beaten anyone by 7. Or by 1.

Has there been a worse matchup since Idaho at Utah St?

WASHINGTON

13. Oregon St +2.5 at Arizona

The Beavers move one step closer to the Rose Bowl.

OREGON ST

14. Boise St -6 at Nevada

Boise stakes its claim for a BCS berth.

BOISE ST

15. BYU +7 at Utah

The Blood Bath in the Beehive State. The Utes relegate Boise St to a minor bowl with a win over Brigham Young. This is a straight toss-up, likely to be decided on the final possession. No matter who wins, a full seven point margin is unlikely.

BYU

–Mark

Take it to the Bank: The Games of Week 12

posted by Mark on 11/12/2008 - -

Texas finds itself in quite a pickle. With Penn St’s loss, the Longhorns are ranked No. 3 in the BCS. All they have to do is win out and wait for either Tech or Alabama to lose, and they are in the BCS title game—right?

Not so fast, Phony-Championship Breath.

If Alabama loses, it will likely be to Florida in the SEC championship game, and the Gators will simply swap places with the crimson Tide as the conference’s almost certain representative in the only bowl game that matters.

And if Tech loses (more likely to OU in Norman than Baylor in Lubbock), and OU proceeds to beat Okie St, the Sooners will, in all probability, move past UT in the BCS Standings on the basis of strength of schedule, which is the deciding factor in a three way with Tech and UT.

But what if OU beats Tech and loses to Okie St? That scenario creates but a two-way tie between UT and Tech, with Tech holding the head to head tie-breaker.

But wait: Suppose Tech plays in the Big 12 championship game and loses to Mizzou. Will Texas then sneak into the Big Game?

Not likely. A clear bias against teams that do not win their conference or division was expressed last year when Georgia and KU were one loss teams that failed to win or even participate in their respective conferences’ championship games. If Texas does not play in Arrowhead on December 5, expect Southern Cal to magically jump them in the human polls to a great enough extent to result in a USC/SEC Pretend Title Game.

That is, unless there are special rules for Texas that apply to no one else. . .

Early line: Texas +3.5 vs. Florida on January 8.

1. Texas -13 at KU

There is, of course, no way that KU can win this game. First, it is being played a year late. Last year the Jayhawks were clearly the superior team and were unlucky that UT was not on the schedule.

This year, not only is UT unarguably the better team, there is BCS money involved. Don’t think for a minute that the Big 12 won’t send an officiating crew that understands that if Texas Tech wins out, the conference’s only chance of securing two helpings of BCS cash is for UT to also win out. Don’t be surprised if the conference pulls out all stops to clear UT’s path to a BCS bowl, including—yes, the nuclear option–assigning Freeman Johns, III to the game.

Of course, the officials only matter if KU can manage to keep the game close—and the Jayhawks have done nothing all season to suggest that it will be. But, this is college football, so anything (almost) is possible. If Iowa can take out Penn St. . .

But assuming, for the sake of the following poll that the game is close, and assuming that KU makes a play that would appear to secure a Jayhawk victory. Which of the following will occur:

a. Offensive pass interference is called against Dez Briscoe, negating TD Todd’s quarterback sneak for a touchdown.

b. Defensive pass interference is called against KU on a desperation fourth down pass by Colt McCoy that is swatted into the stands by Russell Brorsen.

c. UT is awarded a first down on a fourth and one handoff that is fumbled and recovered by Mike Rivera three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

d. Trailing by two with three seconds remaining on the clock, UT’s desperation 58 yard field goal attempt is called good despite being blocked and coming to rest at the 20 yard line.

e. All of the above.

Or “f”: the game will not close enough to require creative officiating.

Unfortunately, the Jayhawks’ blocking and tackling and other fundamentals, coupled with lesser talent, makes “f” all too likely in the absence of a sudden and unlikely epiphany. Or a serious cold front accompanied by precipitation.

UT

2. Mizzou -28 at Iowa St

There is no doubt that Mizzou will cover this spread at some point during the game. The question is whether they will allow Iowa St back within the spread as they did last Saturday with k-state.

Just a hunch:

ISU

3. Texas A&M +8 at Baylor

Baylor is slowly learning how to win. The first step is becoming proficient at covering the spread.

BAYLOR

4. Nebraska -6.5 at k-state

Next to the definition of “mediocrity” in Webster’s Unabridged Dictionary is a photo of a Nebraska football helmet.

Next to “head case” is Willie the Wildcat.

NU

5. Okie St -17 at Colorado

At least there is one easy pick this week.

OKIE ST

6. Northwestern +3.5 at Michigan

Little by little, the Wolverines are making progress. Kind of like Baylor, only without the decades of futility.

MICHIGAN

7. Ohio St -9.5 at Illinois

Payback is a bitch.

OHIO ST

8. Notre Dame -3.5 at Navy

Charlie Weis: “Where are we going? Why is it so hot in November? And what’s with the handbasket?”

NAVY

9. Vanderbilt +4 at Kentucky

It wasn’t that long ago that Vanderbilt was looking like the heir apparent to KU’s rags to riches story in 2007.

Yet it seems like a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.

KENTUCKY

10. Mississippi St +21.5 at Alabama

Alabama is the most resourceful team in the country. They will find way to win—but not necessarily easily.

MISSISSIPPI ST

11. South Carolina +22 at Florida

South Carolina has the better coach by a little bit. Florida has the better players. By a lot. Maybe 21 points worth.

USC

12. Utah St +14 at La Tech

When in doubt, find a Utah St game to pick.

LA TECH

13. Utah -30 at San Diego St

San Diego St almost took out Notre Dame in South Bend.

UTAH

14. UCLA -7 at Washington

How bad is UCLA? Not bad enough to lose to Washington. Or win by fewer than 7 points. . .

UCLA

15. Southern Cal -23 at Stanford

The best game the BCS could put together is USC vs. Oklahoma. Reason 143 why the BCS SUCKS.

USC

–Mark

Barack Obama approves this message. . .

posted by Mark on 11/9/2008 - -

It was gratifying to learn that our President-elect is a long time reader of the PhogBlog. In an interview with Chris Berman on the eve of the election, he echoed PB’s call on January 1, 2006 for an eight team college football playoff: “”I think it is about time that we had playoffs in college football. I’m fed up with these computer rankings and this and that and the other. Get eight teams — the top eight teams right at the end. You got a playoff. Decide on a National Champion.”

More specifically, the system proposed by PB is as follows:

1. Take the conference champion of each of the BCS conferences and two at-large teams—i.e., the two highest ranked remaining teams, or perhaps a mandatory slot for the highest ranked non-BCS team as one of the two teams. This Elite 8 would maintain the integrity and importance of the regular season, a concern often cited by the anti-playoff forces.

2. Use the four BCS Bowls for the Elite 8 games on or around January 1. Leave all other bowl games in place. They would be the nice rewards for the teams and alumni, with no effect on the big picture, just as they have always been. It also results in all four BCS bowl games being important instead of just one. Not to mention three more, for a total of seven games that matter—rather than the present singleton.

It would also result in a true champion being crowned for the first time in over 100 years of college football. The sport would join the civilized world in letting the best teams compete head to head with each other for the right to be called “champion,” rather than rely on the same method used to decide beauty pageants for ten year olds, diving, gymnastics, and ballroom dancing: i.e., opinions based on inherent biases. And, worse yet, unlike these other Opinion Driven events, Division 1 football does not even present the competitors to the scorers in an equal setting. Instead, teams play highly dissimilar schedules, with a major advantage enjoyed by teams in lesser conferences, because being undefeated in a weak conference with no playoff is given priority over being 12-1 in a meat grinder conference (such as the SEC) with an extra hurdle, sometimes a huge one, at the end of the regular season.

So what’s the problem? It isn’t money. The dollars to be made from a seven game championship series would dwarf what is now in play for the four meaningless BCS Bowls plus the Pretend National Championship Game.

Nor has any rational excuse been offered by the opponents of progress. The most common of the Bogus Arguments, as pointed out in our previous post in 2006, are:

Bogus Argument No. 1: Academics

Let’s see: We have two teams play one extra week and two additional teams teams play two. In January. Between semesters.

Why is it that academics is an important consideration in Division 1 football, but not in Division II or lower? Or in basketball, volleyball, soccer, golf, and all other sports that have multiple weeks of championship competition? Is it that Division 1 football players are not as smart as these other athletes?

If anything, Division 1 football players are better suited for coping academically with post-season games than their counterparts at other levels or in other sports. Unlike basketball, and virtually all other sports, the football playoff would be played when school is out. What Division 1 schools are in session January 1-20? If there are any, it is a marked exception, not the rule.

Bogus Argument No. 2: Too Many Games

This argument is not only bogus, it is hypocritical.

This pretend concern about the wear and tear on the athlete was used as a reason for not extending the season with a playoff when there was a nine game regular season. That didn’t stop the powers that be from adding a tenth game. Then an eleventh. And now a twelfth.
With exemptions for “charity” games prior to the normal start of the season, exemptions for games in Hawaii, conference championship games, and bowl games, there have already been teams that have played 14 games. In fact, in 2002, Nebraska went 7-7, including the Independence Bowl, and would have played a fifteenth game had the Huskers won the Big 12 North and qualified for the conference championship.

Further, if there is a concern about the number of football games, why does it apply only to Division 1?

Bogus Argument No. 3: It would diminish the importance of the regular season

This argument’s premise is that EVERY regular season game now is big, because one loss can, and often will, cost a team any chance of playing for the national championship. EVERY game, the argument goes, is a playoff game. For example, Penn State just lost to Iowa on a last second field goal, and is now no more than an afterthought in the pretend National Championship picture.

The primary problems with this assertion are:

The regular season “playoff” games are not against each other. Florida, for example, defeats LSU, Auburn, and Georgia, and is then kicked out of the national championship picture because it has a letdown against Ole Miss? Why should teams like Oregon St or Ole Miss determine the Pretend National Championship Game participants? Why should teams in the ACC or Big East benefit by the fact that USC failed to get up for Oregon St early in the season? What argument is there for not having best teams playing each other, with equal motivation, and an identical task?

This “every game is a playoff game” theory has created an atmosphere of timid scheduling that robs us of truly compelling intersectional games from September through November. It is responsible for uncompetitive games between powerhouse programs and second, third, or even fourth level programs like Louisiana-Lafayette, Rice, Maine, Central Michigan, Middle Tennessee St, Appalachian St, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Indiana St, Sam Houston St, etc.
Who in his right mind would not prefer a fall afternoon or evening watching games like Alabama/Texas, Michigan/Florida, Oklahoma/Ohio St–or even Michigan St/Texas Tech or Virginia Tech/Cal?

No, a playoff system that places an emphasis on winning your conference and playing a strong non-conference schedule (to qualify for one of only one or two at large slots) would create MORE important regular season games, within and without the conference schedule-and better games..

Bogus Argument No. 4: It would diminish the importance of the other bowl games

This is the most laughable argument of all. How do you diminish something that does not exist? Currently, there is one, and occasionally two-bowls that matter, and 30 or so that do not. With the playoff system proposed here, there will be more games that matter (seven). The others will remain as “important” and as relevant as they are under the present system: i.e., the football equivalent of the NIT.

Bogus Argument No. 5: A playoff would leave only one team with a successful season

This argument is that, with a playoff, rather than having 30 or so teams conclude their season with a win, there would be only one. Every other team would look back on their season with a bitter taste in their mouths.

Obviously, this assertion is nonsensical.

First, under the system proposed here, 30 or so teams (not one) would end their seasons with victories: the national champion and all of the other bowl winners.

Second, the additional three losers in the final two rounds would not likely consider themselves losers. Just making it to that point will be a badge of honor–as is making the Final Four in basketball. In fact, it would more likely be celebrated with new banners hanging in the stadium and contract extensions for the coaches.

Bogus Argument No. 6: The logistics would be too difficult

Yeah, right! We can run a three week 65 game neutral court tournament, with 14 sites, in basketball, but can’t figure out how to play three extra football games in two weeks.

My guess is that all the brains at all of the NCAA colleges, plus the television networks, with virtually unlimited resources, could figure it out.

Or I’ll do it. Play the extra three games at one of the four major bowl sites and rotate the honor. Or play the semi-final games at one site and the final game at another-and rotate these sites.

Oh, the detractors say, but the fans! How could they possibly afford the time and expense required to make all these games?
Maybe they could–as many now do for three consecutive weekends of basketball in March and April, or maybe they couldn’t. If they can’t make it, they can watch it on T.V. I would take my chances on filling the stands with locals and a goodly showing by the participating schools. Especially if you make the tickets affordable-and why shouldn’t they be with all the TV money this spectacle would garner.

Bogus Argument No. 7: But the No. 9 team. . .

This argument is one I have never followed. If the controversy moves from whether an undefeated Auburn team is left out of a one game playoff to whether Oregon or West Virginia is left out of an eight game field, that’s a good thing.

The first team out in a two team field can make a strong argument that it was the best team in all the land and was unfairly prevented from proving it.

The argument for the No. 9 team is much less compelling. You have only yourself to blame by not winning your conference.

In other words, a controversy at the top of the food chain is important. The further down the food chain this controversy is moved the better. If 116 teams were allowed in, there would still be a controversy between the last team chosen and the 117th team. But who would care-other than the 117th team?

If you are left out of a two team playoff, it might be the system’s fault. If you are left out of an eight team playoff, with six automatic qualifiers, it is your own fault.

In conclusion, as long as only two teams are chosen to participate in one game to be declared the national champions, that title continues to be mythical. It is, in reality, nothing more than a game for the championship of two conferences: or even less if, somehow, both teams are from the same conference, or from no conference at all, a la Notre Dame.

Even the 2006 game between Texas and Southern Cal, where the BCS purportedly “got it right,” was not for the National Championship. It decided nothing more than championship of the Big 12/PAC-10. Who is to say that one or more teams from the SEC or elsewhere was not better than both? If Penn St, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Florida St, and West Virginia or Oregon had been invited to the party, the winner would have been both REAL (as opposed to a myth) and to have gained its title the old-fashioned way-by earrrrrrrning it.

If the United States of America can elect a black President named Barack Hussein Obama, maybe even the presidents of the Division 1 universities can wise up and initiate an eight team playoff because it is the smart thing to do. And college presidents are supposed to be smart—notwithstanding Mizzou.

–Mark

Take it to the Bank: Week 11’s Picks

posted by Mark on 11/6/2008 - -

Second weekend of November. The wheat is beginning to get separated from the chaff.

Or, in some cases, from the corn.

The games of Week 11:

1. KU + 1 at Nebraska

Piece of cake. Easy as pie. No problemo. Can of cornhusker. The Hawks win again in Lincoln, as they are wont to do in years ending in 8 whose first three digits add up to 2 or some higher power of 2.

KU

2. Baylor +28 at Texas

As if Mack Brown is not going to take out last week’s frustrations on the Bears.

3. Iowa St +9 at Colorado

First team to 9 wins.

CU

4. Oklahoma -27 at Texas A&M

OU. The gift that keeps on giving. . .

OKLAHOMA

5. k-state +26.5 at Mizzou

There is a reason k-state is looking for a new coach.

Mizzou

6. Okie St +3 at Texas Tech

Paging Dr. Phil.

Is Tech riding a high for another 60 minutes, or suffering a letdown? Okie St is the better team. But, then, so was Texas. And, as with Texas, Tech is at Home. I’ll take the Raiders by a two point conversion in the fourth OT. Which means, for point spread purposes:

Okie St

7. Ohio St -11.5 at Northwestern

About 3 points too many for my blood. The team with the big Z at midfield covers.

Zorthwestern.

8. Penn St -7.5 at Iowa

Which is more likely to leave money under your pillow: Joe Pa or the Tooth Fairy? This year, anyway, it is:

Penn St

9. Notre Dame +3 at Boston College

Notre Dame is making a habit of losing to those darn Catholics.

BC

10. Georgia -10.5 at Kentucky

Kentucky plays well when I expect them to suck, and vice-versa. I expect them to play Georgia tough this week at Home: ergo, it is now officially basketball season in the Bluegrass State.

GEORGIA

11. Alabama -3.5 at LSU

Jambalaya, Crimson Tide, and filet gumbo. Son of a gun, they’re gonna have big fun on the bayou.

LSU

12. Florida -24 at Vanderbilt

Florida: Southern for Oklahoma.

FU

13. Oregon St -8 at UCLA

If USC can’t stop the Beavers, what chance does UCLA have? Even at Home:

OREGON ST

14. Arizona St -14.5 at Washington

Here’s a hypothetical play-off scenario: Washington vs. Washington St for the right to play Idaho (loser against Utah St) for the BCS Chumpionship.

Arizona St

15. Cal +20.5 at USC

No way Cal wins this game. The Trojans won’t lose again unless they sneak back into the Pretend National Championship picture. But 20+ points?

CAL

–Mark

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Take it to the Bank: The Games of week 10

posted by Mark on 10/29/2008 - -

Before the season, I thought the Big Blue had a good chance of winning 9-10 games following this formula: Beat the seven teams they were clearly better than, and 2-3 of their five quality opponents. Didn’t seem unreasonable, what with two of the five being at Home, one at Arrowhead, and one against a good but lesser foe.

To this point, the Hawks are 5-0 vs. the teams they were expected to beat. Unfortunately, they are 0-3 vs. the good teams, having lost to South Florida on the game’s final play, to OU in Norman (which was no surprise), and to a Tech team that proved to be vastly improved over last year—while KU appears to be substantially inferior to the Orange Bowl championship squad.

The question is, exactly how far have the Jayhawks fallen?

We may find out this week.

1. k-state +11 at KU

Until last Saturday, I had considered this game as safe. All of a sudden, it has become an at-risk game. KU has been no more impressive vs. common opponents Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech than k-state has been. Yes, KU has beaten Colorado, while k-state lost to the Buffaloes by 1, but the Hawks played CU at Home, whereas k-state played the Buffs in Boulder.

The Jayhawks have the Home field in this contest, which, along with their quest for redemption, should be enough to carry the day for a W. But by more than eleven points? K-state’s offense will keep the game within a TD and a field goal.

k-state

2. Texas -6 at Texas Tech

Texas proved it was vulnerable vs. Okie St., doing everything but losing at Home to the Cowboys. In fact, the key play of the game was an interception thrown by Colt McCoy that appeared to end a UT drive inside the 10. But noooooooo. An Okie St defender was a bit rough with McCoy, and the INT was nullified. Instead of taking possession, Okie St watched as the officials moved the ball closer to the OSU goal line, from where UT scored a TD post haste. Turned out to be a seven point gift by Okie St. They ultimately lost by four.

Unless you count UTEP, this is UT’s first REAL Road challenge of the year. Tech will score against the Longhorns’ suspect pass defense. Whether Tech can slow down McCoy and Co. is another matter.

The REAL key? How Tech handles the pressure of playing in a game of this magnitude. This is the first time in its history that it has had to prepare for a game between two undefeated teams ten weeks into the season, vs. the No. 1 ranked team in all the land, with College Game Day in town, and a slot in the Pretend National Championship game potentially at stake.

I have a REAL tough time envisioning Tech winning this game under these circumstances—unless it gets off to a REAL fast start, such as a long TD pass on its second offensive play of the game.

I also have a tough time seeing UT running away and hiding from a Home team that will put 35 or more points on the board.

TECH

3. Mizzou -20 at Baylor

Baylor has shown it can score. So can Mizzou, of course. But they will need to score 49 to cover this spread. Is that REALly a problem?

MIZZOU

4. Colorado +3 at Texas A&M

A&M is starting to come alive—at least against mediocre teams. Colorado is a mediocre team without even a mediocre offense.

A&M

5. Nebraska +21.5 at Oklahoma

I remember the day when College Game Day—had it existed—would have been in Norman for this game, the biggest game of the year nationally, and it would have been played on Thanksgiving Day or that weekend. No longer.

OKLAHOMA

6. Northwestern + 6 at Minnesota

A big time game looking at the records. Northwestern at 6-2 vs. Minnesota at 7-1. Minnesota at Home and Northwestern without the services of its best running back, as well as a questionable QB is a prescription for an easy cover by:

MINNESOTA

7. Wisconsin +5 at Michigan St

Wisconsin has not been too kind to me this season. They cover when I pick against them. They fail to cover when I take them. Meaning they will cover this week, because my pick is:

Michigan St

8. Duke +7.5 at Wake Forest

Duke is fading weakly as the season progresses. What the heck: it’s basketball season.

WAKE

9. Pitt +5.5 at Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish will be in the hunt for all the Pretend Marbles next year.

NOTRE DAME

10. Tulsa -7 at Arkansas

There was a time when a Tulsa victory over Arkansas would have constituted an upset of major proportions. This year, not so much.

TULSA

11. Tennessee +6 at South Carolina

The Gamecocks don’t beat anyone by much. The Vols don’t beat anyone. . .

SOUTH CAROLINA

12. Florida -5.5 at Georgia

The one team no one wants to play for the PNC.

FLORIDA

13. Oregon +3 at Cal

Cal at Home is a Bear.

CALIFORNIA

14. Arizona St +14 at Oregon St

Two teams headed in the opposite direction. Like ships passing in the night. To the extent there are ships in the desert. And except for the Beaver Ship ramming the Sun Devil Ship, sending it to its watery or sandy grave.

OREGON ST

15. Utah -7.5 at New Mexico

Last week’s Gimme of the Week didn’t go so well. Utah St gave Fresno everything it wanted, beating a 16.5 point spread by 14.5 points. Nor would it have been better to have played the other Usual Suspect, as Idaho not only came within the 14 points they were allotted vs. New Mexico St, they actually won the game outright, 20-14. So what is there to believe in anymore? Washington St? Maybe. But can Stanford beat ANYONE by thirty points—even what might be the worst team in the FBS?
Let’s try the other route; i.e., playing a mismatch because one of the teams is a juggernaut rather than a patsy. I’ll take the juggernaut.

UTAH

–Mark

Take it to the Bank: Week No. 9, No. 9, No.9. . .

posted by Mark on 10/22/2008 - -

This weekend marks the halfway point of the Big 12 conference season. And whereas the Jayhawks had a nothing to lose situation last week in the only game on this season’s schedule that they had virtually no chance to win, every game from here on in is both important and winnable. Each loss in the next five weeks likely drops KU one full tier in the Bowl pecking order.

The ultimate achievement, of course, would be a second consecutive trip to a BCS bowl—which is in the proverbial bag if the Hawks win out, including the Big 12 championship game.

Not likely? Not the way the defense has looked this season. But there are other bowl games worthy of attaining. Especially if the Big 12 sends two teams to the BCS, which is a distinct possibility. Making this week’s game vs. Texas Tech, a peer Bowl competitor, huge.

The games of Week 9:

1. Texas Tech +1.5 at KU

Two fantastic offenses. Two less than fantastic defenses. Two unspecial special teams. KU’s D appears to have a slight edge, but the REAL edge is the Home field, where the Hawks have won their last 13 games. Tech would have the edge in Lubbock. But they will have to wait a year for it.

KU

2. Oklahoma -19 at k-state

What goofball set this line? OU should cover this spread by halftime.

OU

3. Baylor +11 at Nebraska

This is a tough one. So that I must resort to Rule No. 23 of college football prognosticating: When in doubt, doubt Baylor.

NU

4. Okie St +13 at Texas

Texas might be the most improved team in the country. And they are on a roll.

TEXAS

5. Colorado +22 at Mizzou

If I were not committed to picking all big 12 games, I wouldn’t touch this one. Mizzou has been exposed and is in free fall. A loss here sets the program back 20 years. Fortunately for them, they get to regain their swagger at Home. Might be a slow first quarter. But once they taste a little success, don’t expect Pinkel to call off the dogs before the separation is well past the point spread.

MIZZOU

6. Texas A&M +3 at Iowa St

A&M is bad, but they are a little less bad each week. Iowa St, on the other hand, appears to have peaked three weeks ago—when it led KU by 20 at the half. It hasn’t had much go right since then.

A&M

7. Penn St -2.5 at Ohio St

Same song, umpteenth verse: I will ride Penn St until they give me a reason not to. Ohio St in Columbus is tempting, but they aren’t going to get in the way of JoePa’s last stand.

PENN ST

8. Illinois -2.5 at Wisconsin

Wisconsin can’t sink any lower, can they? Or will they?

ILLINOIS

9. Notre Dame -11 at Washington

How bad is Washington? We might not REALly know until they play their truly dreadful in-state rival for the Apple Cup.

NOTRE DAME

10. Kentucky +24.5 at Florida

Florida is a far superior team, and the game is in The Swamp. But Kentucky can put points on the board. If they score 24, the Gators have to score 49 to cover.

UK

11. Georgia +2 at LSU

Georgia is the better team, but LSU in Baton Rouge is a tall order. If this game were one of those crazy magical night parties in the bayou, I would have to go with the Bengals. With a mid-afternoon start, the air will hold just a little less magic.

GEORGIA

12. Alabama -6.5 at Tennessee

The Crimson Tide has the best win of the college football season in its romp at Georgia. Its season opener at Clemson wasn’t too shabby, either, notwithstanding the fact that Clemson was vastly overrated. Still, Bama, has been anything but a juggernaut against lesser teams—like Tennessee.

TENNESSEE

13. Virginia Tech +5 at Florida St

Speaking of teams that are not juggernauts: I give you Florida St.

VT

14. Southern Cal -16 at Arizona

USC is the best team in the country when they pay attention. Which they have since the Oregon St debacle.

USC

15. Fresno St -16.5 at Utah St

Couldn’t decide whether to pick against Utah St in this game or against Idaho (+14 vs. New Mexico St) as the freebie of the week. Both teams are at Home. Idaho gives fewer points. But Fresno is the better opponent. Idaho might actually compete into the fourth quarter. Utah St might compete into the second.

FRESNO ST

Hey, Wreck, Texas Tech!

–Mark

Take it to the Bank: The Games of Week 8

posted by Mark on 10/15/2008 - -

1. KU +20 at Oklahoma

The early line on this game was 14. That was a tough line, what with OU looking for redemption AND playing at Home. OU has lost but two Home games during Stoops’ tenure. This Saturday is not likely to be No. 3. However, at 20 points, this should be an easy cover for a team with the Big 12’s best QB and a running game and D that are both improving weekly. The Hawks can score 28 on the Sooners’ D—meaning OU will need 49 to beat the spread.

KU

2. k-state +3 at Colorado

Will Colorado allow k-state to stretch the Buffs’ losing streak to four? In Boulder? With all the talk about the QB rich Big 12, CU is not sharing the wealth. Cody Hawkins is a Big Sky QB in Big 12 clothing. With the points, I will take:

k-state

3. Mizzou +6 at Texas

Texas has two advantages in this game: Superior athletes and the Home Field. Mizzou has the edge in motivation, being a desperate team after losing for the first time in two years to a team not named the Sooners. With the inevitable let down by UT after its epic struggle with Oklahoma last weekend, Mizzou will not go down quietly. To win, Daniel will have to perform well in the clutch. Not likely. However, staying close does not require poise under pressure.

MIZZOU

4. Texas Tech -21 at Texas A&M

How dismal is A&M?

TEXAS TECH

5. Baylor +17 at Okie St

Okay, so Baylor isn’t the worst team in the Big 12. And Okie St will have a let down. Could be a close game into the third quarter. However, until Baylor shows it can take its newfound prowess on the road:

OKIE ST

6. Nebraska -7 at Iowa St

Nebraska has finally reached the status of a truly mediocre program: i.e., one that can play over its head for sixty minutes one week and ALMOST beat a better team, then fold against a bad team the next. Long-time KU fans are familiar with this syndrome. ISU wins this game outright.

IOWA ST

7. Wisconsin +3.5 at Iowa

Wisconsin is shell shocked after two flukey losses and a royal butt-kicking by Penn St. If the Badgers have any character at all, the bleeding will stop in Iowa City.

WISCONSIN

8. Ohio St -3.5 at Michigan St

The Buckeyes are not a great team. They are, however, a resourceful one. Perhaps the most resourceful college football team of the modern era. If this game is close in the final minutes, they will find a way to win. Whether by 3 or 4 is the question.

OHIO ST

9. Michigan +23 at Penn St

Penn St is on a roll that could lead to Miami in January. Michigan seems to get worse every week. The game is in State College. What’s not to like?

PENN ST

10. Arkansas +10 at Kentucky

Pay no attention to that win over Auburn. That game revealed more about Auburn than Arkansas.

KENTUCKY

11. Ole Miss +13 at Alabama

The Tide is a legitimate threat to play for the pretend national championship. But they are not a juggernaut.

OLE MISS

12. Idaho +20 at La-Tech

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Picking against Idaho has been a reliable way of scoring against Vegas thus far this season. The Vandals have shown no measure of improvement with the passing weeks. I’ll go to this well one more time.

IDAHO

13. Utah St +21 at Nevada

Speaking of reliability, I offer Exhibit 2: Utah St.

NEVADA

14. Oregon St -14 at Washington

Washington is the Michigan of the PAC-10. Oregon St is not the West Coast’s version of Penn St, but they don’t have to be to cover 14 points.

OREGON ST

15. Colorado St +21 at Utah

Utah is taking no prisoners. If they score to go up 35 in the final minute, don’t be surprised to see an on-side kick.

Boom the Sooners!

–Mark