Phog Blog » 2004 » December

We are CNN/SI’s marquee matchup

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 12/31/2004 -

I should let you know that without Wayne, we are predicted to lose 4 out of 5 times on a game simulation by an average score of 79-72.

A lack of bowls tomorrow, big bowls, kind of stinks, but at least we’re the number one thing people will watch, and hopefully we win without Wayne.

How will the Jayhawks handle the loss of Simien, who leads the team with 17.4 points and 12 rebounds per game? While Keith Langford (15.3 points per game) and J.R. Giddens (10.5) can pick up the scoring, the entire team must crash the boards to make up for the loss of Simien’s rebounding. Junior walk-on Christian Moody has been a pleasant surprise, starting all eight games, shooting 62.5 percent from the field and averaging 5.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. But with Simien out, there will be more pressure on the 6-8 Moody to be strong inside while staying out of foul trouble.

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Tsunami Relief now over $5,000,000

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 12/30/2004 -

General

An absolutely mind-boggling total for 3.5 days - over $5 million. Even more amazing is the fact that the average gift is over $60. Good job Phog Bloggers.

Keep it up.

UPDATE: Make that over $9,000,000!

Sadly, however, it looks like the death figure could be much much higher than initially suspected - officials are now suggesting the death toll could be as high as 400,000..

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KU - Georgia Tech Game Notes

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on -

Game Previews

From KU Athletics:

Dec. 29, 2004

Kansas kicks off the 2005 portion of the season Jan. 1 against No. 9 Georgia Tech. Tip is set for 1:30 p.m. at Allen Fieldhouse before an ESPN national audience. It will be the first ranked foe KU will play in 2004-05. The Jayhawks are ranked No. 2 in both the Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today Coaches’ polls while the Yellow Jackets sit at No. 9. KU is 8-0 after a 73-26 win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the Yellow Book Shootout on Dec. 22. Georgia Tech is 9-1 after a 92-58 win over Louisiana-Lafayette Dec. 28. The Yellow Jackets are one of four teams that defeated KU last season away from Lawrence who will visit the Jayhawks in 2004-05 (also Nevada, Texas and Oklahoma State). The Jayhawks avenged the Nevada loss with an 85-52 win on Nov. 29.

About Georgia Tech

No. 9 Georgia Tech returns four starters and eight letterwinners from last season’s NCAA Tournament runner-up team. Senior B.J. Elder leads the Yellow Jackets with a 14.2 scoring average. The guard is hitting 38 percent from three-point range with his team-high 23 threes this season. Junior guard Jarrett Jack is next in scoring at 13.1 points per game to go along with 4.9 assists. Senior center Luke Schenscher leads Georgia Tech in rebounding at 7.7 per contest. He is scoring 10.1 points per game and leads Tech with 20 blocked shots through 10 games. The Yellow Jackets’ only setback of the season was at the hands of Gonzaga (85-73) on Dec. 18. Senior guard Will Bynum scored 28 points in the loss.

Tech Head Coach Paul Hewitt

Paul Hewitt is in his fifth season at Georgia Tech where he is 84-55. Overall, Hewitt is in his eighth season as a head coach with a 150-82 record. He has guided Georgia Tech to two NCAA Tournament appearances and one NIT berth. Prior to Georgia Tech, Hewitt was head coach at Siena, where he was 66-27 in three seasons. Hewitt is 1-0 against Kansas.

About Kansas

No. 2 Kansas is 8-0 for the first time since the 1997-98 season. KU has been ranked in the top two nationally the entire season. The Jayhawks have held six of eight opponents to 62 points or less and all eight to under 50 percent shooting. Additionally, they average 18 assists per game and a 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio. With senior Wayne Simien out four to six weeks due to injury, senior Keith Langford is the active scoring leader at 15.3 points per game, while sophomore J.R. Giddens is at 10.5 ppg. Senior Aaron Miles is scoring 8.5 points per game and leads the league with 7.8 assists per contest. Junior Christian Moody is averaging 5.9 points and is second on the team with 4.6 rebounds per game. Simien leads KU with 17.4 points and 12 rebounds per contest. Simien is the only player in the Big 12 who is averaging a double-double.

Kansas Head Coach Bill Self

Kansas coach Bill Self is 32-9 in his second season at KU and 239-114 in his 12th season overall. Last year, KU posted a 24-9 record and finished tied for second in the Big 12 race at 12-4. KU advanced to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year, falling to Georgia Tech in overtime, 79-71. Self’s 24 victories tied Dick Harp for the most wins by a KU coach in his debut season at Kansas. Prior to KU, Self led Illinois to two Big Ten titles and three straight NCAA Tournament appearances. Before Illinois, he guided Tulsa to two WAC championships in 1999 and 2000 and was The Sporting News National Coach of the Year in 2000. A four-time Naismith Coach of the Year Award finalist, Self began his coaching career at KU in 1985-86 and was an assistant at his alma mater - Oklahoma State - from 1986 until 1993. His first head coaching stint was at Oral Roberts where he guided the Golden Eagles to the NIT in 1996-97, their first postseason appearance since 1983-84. Self is 1-1 against Georgia Tech. Self guided Illinois to a 105-66 win over Tech at the Las Vegas Invitational Nov. 23, 2001.
(more…)

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Tsunami Relief

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 12/29/2004 -

General

I try not to meander too far from things related to the Jayhawks on this blog, but given that news has indicated that the death toll due to the tsunami in Asia is now over 80,000, I think it’s ok for this post. Amazon has been collecting funds for disaster relief through the American Red Cross. This is not the international Red Cross that some people may express reticence about, just so you know. In any case, if you would like to donate a few of your Christmas dollars to help those in need, feel free to do so using the link on the right side of your screen.

If you like, you can also follow this link to go straight to the page.

In the last 15 minutes, generous Amazon users have given $45,000 to help the tsunami victims. Overall the tally is up to $1,423,000 since they put up the link. For scale, the French government has given $177,000 and the German government has given about $2 million. I’m pretty impressed with that system, and certainly with the generosity of Amazon users.

UPDATE: As of 7.37 Jayhawk Time, the total is now up to $3,059,670.14. Once again, very impressive. Here’s the link if you’re too lazy to scroll up.

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Jayhawks get a B from Self

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on -

LJW Articles

All apologies for the long absence - this will be a particularly busy month for me, as I am getting married in less than 30 days. Phog Blog will continue however, as I am able, but I would certainly enlist the assistance of surrogates. If this sounds like fun to you, let me know.

Bill Self gives KU a “B” for the season so far, and I think he’s about right, although I would probably say C- for freethrow shooting.

While those numbers may be “A” quality, others like free-throw shooting and rebounding may be closer to “C” status. The Jayhawks have made 62.8 percent of their free throws and are outrebounding foes 42.4 per game to 35.9.

“Rebounding has been a struggle the whole time,” Self said. “We’ve been plus-8 in rebounding. We should be plus-12. I think we should be better. If we were able to steal four more possessions a game, you score on half those possessions, that’s four more points, then you are looking at an �A’ first half grade as opposed to a �B’.

Regarding some of this Micah Downs confusion that went down over the holidays, I’m inclined to think that Steve Downs spoke with something less than the wisdom of Solomon, then spent a week trying to dig himself out of a hole.

There was a nice article about Julian Wright in the Star the other day, here it is if you were tripping on tryptophan and slept most of the last few days away.

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Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Milwaukee game

posted by asteroid on 12/22/2004 -

Prognostications

There’s something fishy with the Sagarin ratings that was revealed by
the usual research for today’s game with Wisconsin Milwaukee. The
Panthers’ schedule includes a game against South Dakota State.
Massey’s listing, albeit for last season, shows South Dakota State to
be a Division II school, though Sagarin includes the Jackrabbits in
his ratings, and his ratings only include Division I schools. Could
it be that South Dakota State is a provisional member of Division I
this year? But that’s not the fishy part. Sagarin gives South Dakota
State the 6th most difficult schedule, yet who have they played? Well,
#37 Butler, #54 Wisconsin Milwaukee, #56 Marquette, #97 Denver,
#98 Illinois Chicago and on down. Kansas has played a tougher schedule
than that, so why does Sagarin call it the #115 schedule? Methinks
Sagarin has a bug in his software.

Anyway, the latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings give Kansas a 16.5 point
edge in today’s game and a 90 percent chance of winning. Kansas is
playing 5.0 points better than its Pure Points rating, while Milwaukee
is playing 4.0 points better, which boosts the edge to 17.5 points.
The narrow win over South Carolina has resulted in a negative trend for
Kansas, but it is not statistically significant. Milwaukee started with
lopsided victories over Prairie View and Parkside, then a win over a
decent Air Force team, then another lopsided win over South Dakota State
plus a solid win over Illinois Chicago, which led to a rather lofting
rating for them. Against Saint Louis they played as expected, but lost
to a weak Valparaiso team and then got trounced by Wisconsin, leading to
a steep negative trend of very high significance. But expect them to
bring their A game against Kansas, with a little extra confidence
arising from the fact that they won’t have to go up against Simien. I
wouldn’t expect their negative trend to continue. Both teams are less
consistent than the national average, but Milwaukee by 4 more points
than Kansas.

Still no ratings from Massey; his rankings aren’t very informative.

Jerry Palm doesn’t include South Dakota State in his RPI list, nor does
he include North Dakota State, while Sagarin includes both. That may
explain why Sagarin lists 332 schools while Palm lists only 330, but
I’ve seen it mentioned elsewhere that there are 331 Division I schools
this season. Anybody know who is right? Interesting to see Palm’s RPI
show Boston College as #1 and Kansas at #2, whereas Dolphin has them
reversed. They can’t both be right. It has been noted that the RPI
calculation this season is supposed to give more weight to road wins,
but has the NCAA come right out and stated what their formula is? If
they have, then all accurate implementations of that formula ought to
yield the same results. So either the implementations are not accurate,
or they’re guessing at what the NCAA’s formula is.

Dolphin is predicting a score of 78 to 63 in favor of Kansas with a 90
percent chance of Kansas winning. Those outcomes are assuming Kemper
Arena represents a home game for Kansas. That probability is consistent
with Sagarin’s prediction.

The numbers show the Lafayette game to be the best of the season for
Kansas, yet Self called it the worst. South Carolina was the worst
game of the season for Kansas.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #115   # 14   #  4   +5.0   12.8   -0.37 +/- 2.64
Milwaukee      # 59   #209   # 82   # 54   +4.0   16.9   -6.68 +/- 1.81 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  5   # 59   #      # 14   # 52     #  2   # 13      7-0
Milwaukee      # 66   #119   #      # 86   # 99     #112   #231      6-2

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  6   #  6   #  5   #  4   #  1   #  5   # 12   0.499
Milwaukee      # 53   # 54   # 47   # 72   #184   #129   # 25   0.407

Here is Kansas’ season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 28 Vermont                     68  61   +13.46    -6.46
HOME   #174 Saint Joseph’s              91  51   +24.96   +15.04
HOME   # 69 Nevada                      85  52   +18.56   +14.44
HOME   # 29 Pacific                     81  70   +13.63    -2.63
HOME   # 42 TCU                         93  74   +15.62    +3.38
HOME   #124 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +21.96   +23.04
HOME   # 41 South Carolina              64  60   +15.52   -11.52
HOME   # 54 Wis.-Milwaukee                       +16.50             0.902
HOME   #  6 Georgia Tech                          +7.37             0.718
HOME   # 50 Texas A&M                            +16.27             0.898
AWAY   # 11 Kentucky                              +1.78             0.555
AWAY   #109 Iowa State                           +13.16             0.848
AWAY   #110 Colorado                             +13.19             0.849
HOME   #106 Nebraska                             +20.83             0.948
AWAY   # 81 Villanova                            +11.43             0.814
AWAY   #326 Baylor                               +32.43             0.994
HOME   #  9 Texas                                 +8.88             0.756
HOME   #144 Missouri                             +23.14             0.965
AWAY   #106 Nebraska                             +12.87             0.843
AWAY   #107 Kansas State                         +12.96             0.845
HOME   #110 Colorado                             +21.15             0.951
AWAY   #  8 Texas Tech                            +0.77             0.524
HOME   #109 Iowa State                           +21.12             0.951
AWAY   # 15 Oklahoma                              +3.49             0.608
HOME   #  2 Oklahoma State                        +2.43             0.575
HOME   #107 Kansas State                         +20.92             0.949
AWAY   #144 Missouri                             +15.18             0.882

We’re back to a season record projection of 23-4, which looks more
likely with Simien out, yet all games are now projected wins, thanks
to Texas Tech’s drubbing by Iowa.

Here is Wisconsin Milwaukee’s season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #329 Prairie View A&M           117  55   +33.27   +28.73
Div2        Wisconsin Parkside          87  50
HOME   # 59 Air Force                   50  45    +4.61    +0.39
HOME   #217 South Dakota State          89  54   +15.37   +19.63
AWAY   # 98 Illinois-Chicago            75  67    +0.06    +7.94
AWAY   #257 Saint Louis                 57  47   +10.06    -0.06
AWAY   #189 Valparaiso                  71  72    +5.76    -6.76
AWAY   # 30 Wisconsin                   37  66    -6.75   -22.25
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -16.50             0.164

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It’s a shame about Wayne.

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on -

Game Previews

I’ve been trying to come to terms with the fact that Wayne Simien will be out for 4-6 weeks all week, and I really haven’t had a whole lot to say that’s all that positive. Mostly I feel bad for Wayne. This is the third injury that’s kept him out for a significant amount of time and it virtually kills his chances of being national POY, which is too bad, because his numbers up until this point have been very good, especially his rebounding.

Self seems to be searching for silver lining as well:

Self hardly expects Kaun, Jackson or Giles - or starting forward Christian Moody - to make up for the 17.4 points and 12 rebounds that Simien was averaging each game. But he is predicting that each will play a lot of minutes beginning with tonight’s game in the Yellow Book Shootout.

“We need two of those three guys to step up,” Self said. “It’s amazing how people start to play better when the collar gets tight. Hopefully that will be the case with these guys.”

Hopeful as he is that someone will emerge as a post presence alongside Moody, Self is far from married to the idea of playing most of the game with a pair of big bodies down low.

Honestly, I’d like to see Galindo get in there and play the 4 - he has a nose for offensive rebounding and if he can use his quickness advantage down low defensively, he could really help us on the offensive end.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be a tough game tonight, especially without Wayne. I think we’ll band together though and play tough and motivated ball, but I suspect the freshman bigs will be full of foul-prone enthusiasm. Expect at least one DQ among Giles, Jackson and Kaun. The Panthers are 6-2 and undefeated in their league and get this, this will be their 5th straight game away from home. AFH East better be warm on this frigid December’s night, because if the Hawks come out cold, it could be worse than last week.

My prediction: 79-63, but it will feel closer than that.

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Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for South Carolina game

posted by asteroid on 12/18/2004 -

Prognostications

I’m changing the name until such time as Massey actually starts making
predictions for the current season. Have no idea why he hasn’t so far
into the season, especially now that football regular season is over.

Dolphin is predicting a score of 75 to 60 in favor of Kansas, with the
Jayhawks having a 91 percent chance of winning today’s game over South
Carolina.

Sagarin Pure Points predicts a 20 point margin for Kansas and a 97
percent chance of winning the game. Kansas is playing 5.5 points
better than its Pure Points rating, while South Carolina is playing
3.4 points better than its rating, which boosts the margin of victory
to 22 points. Kansas has a marginally significant positive trend,
while South Carolina has a negative trend but with less significance.
Both teams are showing about the same level of inconsistency; South
Carolina is right on the national average, while Kansas is 0.4 points
more consistent.

Massey’s rankings indicate that South Carolina’s defense is their
strong suit, so perhaps we’re looking at a somewhat lower scoring
affair.

Like Kansas, South Carolina hasn’t been away from home in all their
previous games, so the Gamecocks are about to learn something about
their team. Their best game came against Appalachian State, while
their worst game was the most recent outing against South Florida.
Their biggest test to date came against Clemson, which was a 1-point
loss, their only loss of the season. Their next biggest test was
Temple, who they beat by a comfortable 14 points in a really low
scoring contest; recall that Temple gave Wake Forest all they handle
before succumbing by 3 points. Maybe the ACC isn’t that strong after
all? Or maybe South Carolina is better than the rankings indicate.
At least Kansas is playing a top-tier opponent (where I’m breaking
the 330+ Division I teams into three tiers).


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  3   #113   #  9   #  1   +5.5   10.6   +2.53 +/- 2.52
South Carolina # 49   #248   # 58   # 49   +3.4   11.0   -2.21 +/- 2.72 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  6   # 48   #      # 10   # 38     #  2   #  9      6-0
South Carolina # 51   #233   #      #104   # 53     # 27   # 63      5-1

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  5   #  6   #  3   #  2   #  2   #  5   # 11   0.480
South Carolina # 58   # 62   # 43   # 58   # 26   # 36   #135  -0.029

Here is Kansas’ season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 19 Vermont                     68  61   +13.90    -6.90
HOME   #168 Saint Joseph’s              91  51   +27.55   +12.45
HOME   # 86 Nevada                      85  52   +22.54   +10.46
HOME   # 38 Pacific                     81  70   +17.22    -6.22
HOME   # 27 TCU                         93  74   +15.16    +3.84
HOME   #138 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +25.67   +19.33
HOME   # 49 South Carolina                       +19.81             0.970
HOME   # 43 Wis.-Milwaukee                       +18.35             0.959
HOME   #  7 Georgia Tech                          +7.11             0.750
HOME   # 52 Texas A&M                            +19.93             0.970
AWAY   # 17 Kentucky                              +5.89             0.711
AWAY   # 64 Iowa State                           +13.16             0.894
AWAY   # 94 Colorado                             +15.21             0.925
HOME   # 54 Nebraska                             +20.12             0.972
AWAY   # 81 Villanova                            +14.52             0.915
AWAY   #324 Baylor                               +35.86             1.000
HOME   #  9 Texas                                +11.00             0.851
HOME   #153 Missouri                             +26.61             0.994
AWAY   # 54 Nebraska                             +12.46             0.881
AWAY   #109 Kansas State                         +16.06             0.936
HOME   # 94 Colorado                             +22.87             0.985
AWAY   #  4 Texas Tech                            -2.01             0.425
HOME   # 64 Iowa State                           +20.82             0.976
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                              +7.07             0.748
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                        +5.20             0.689
HOME   #109 Kansas State                         +23.72             0.988
AWAY   #153 Missouri                             +18.95             0.964

The projected season record for Kansas now has 2.5 losses. Choose which
direction you prefer to round it. The 24-3 choice is the same as for the
previous projection; the 25-2 choice is yet another improvement, which
jumped a whole game over the projection before that. Still projecting a
road loss in Lubbock despite the Red Raiders’ loss to Ohio State. The
GaTech and Kentucky non-conference games early and the Texas Tech,
Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State conference games late are the only games for
which the projected point difference is single digits. Wow!

Here is South Carolina’s season to date:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #300 Western Carolina            87  61   +20.74    +5.26
HOME   #142 Winthrop                    62  52    +9.85    +0.15
HOME   # 89 Temple                      60  46    +6.77    +7.23
HOME   #194 Appalachian State           91  57   +12.72   +21.28
HOME   # 39 Clemson                     62  63    +1.26    -2.26
HOME   #207 South Florida               72  70   +13.57   -11.57
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -19.81             0.036

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Young Saint Nick Bahe

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 12/17/2004 -

Now I know he doesn’t get a lot of playing time, but this is still a breath of fresh air:

“To be in position to help … it’s your duty whenever you can,” KU sophomore Nick Bahe said while checking out CDs before picking out “Blue’s Clues” tapes for a 2-year-old child. “This is my favorite thing we get to do as a team, taking part in the season of giving.”

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There’s life after basketball for some walk-ons…

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 12/15/2004 -

Do you remember Scott Novosel, the former Kansas walk-on who scored three points against East Tennesee State back in 1994? I was at that game, and I don’t remember those points. I don’t even remember Novosel. He only scored 1 more point that entire season, so I don’t think it’s too surprising if you haven’t heard of him.

He is however, making a name for himself as, of all things, a Japanese rapper. His rap group’s name is Nice Guy Jin and you can see their video below. Note the flagrant use of Jayhawk regalia - why not?

And before you go thinking his fame hadn’t brought him anything, observe this commercial, wherein Nice Guy Jin, a Japanese lady and some magical flowers make you want to buy the Suzuki Solio, it may take a minute for the video to load and buffer, so hold your horses:

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Shooting Stars

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 12/14/2004 -

We’re only 6 games into this season, and we’re shooting very well, as Bedore notes today:

The Jayhawks, who hit 46.5 percent of their shots a year ago, have made 193 of 372 attempts in the early going for 51.9 percent.

Last year, six games in, we were shooting only 46.8%, just a shade above what we shot for the year. I’d be happy if we could keep that up. Here’s our shooting stats for the first six games of last season:

Self dismisses our early success, with predictable coachspeak:

“Those are good numbers. We’ll win a lot of games if we keep that up,” KU coach Bill Self said Monday during his Hawk Talk radio show.

“We’re shooting 52 percent, but we’ve made a lot of layups, too. You shoot better when you get those. We’ve not shot a lot of threes.”

But you don’t have to shoot a lot of threes if you shoot good shots, and particularly if you make them. Last year, we were shooting only 28.5% from deep. We had made 35 threes on 123 shots. This year, we’ve attempted 20 less threes over 6 games (about 3.7 less attempts per game), but we’ve made 6 more. We’re shooting 40% from three point land this year, which is more than enough to make zoning us a dangerous prospect.

Clearly the season is young, but I think there’s strong statistical evidence that this team is a better shooting team than it was last year. Last year’s team got better at shooting, at least at three point shooting, as the year went on.

We should be so lucky.

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Feel good about your Self…

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 12/13/2004 -

Because according to the Sagarin ratings, he has strong associations with the top 3 teams in America:

1. Illinois - responsible for almost all of the players.
2. Oklahoma State - It’s his alma mater after all.
3. Kansas - Umm…I know he’ has something to do with Kansas.

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