Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for South Carolina game
I’m changing the name until such time as Massey actually starts making
predictions for the current season. Have no idea why he hasn’t so far
into the season, especially now that football regular season is over.
Dolphin is predicting a score of 75 to 60 in favor of Kansas, with the
Jayhawks having a 91 percent chance of winning today’s game over South
Carolina.
Sagarin Pure Points predicts a 20 point margin for Kansas and a 97
percent chance of winning the game. Kansas is playing 5.5 points
better than its Pure Points rating, while South Carolina is playing
3.4 points better than its rating, which boosts the margin of victory
to 22 points. Kansas has a marginally significant positive trend,
while South Carolina has a negative trend but with less significance.
Both teams are showing about the same level of inconsistency; South
Carolina is right on the national average, while Kansas is 0.4 points
more consistent.
Massey’s rankings indicate that South Carolina’s defense is their
strong suit, so perhaps we’re looking at a somewhat lower scoring
affair.
Like Kansas, South Carolina hasn’t been away from home in all their
previous games, so the Gamecocks are about to learn something about
their team. Their best game came against Appalachian State, while
their worst game was the most recent outing against South Florida.
Their biggest test to date came against Clemson, which was a 1-point
loss, their only loss of the season. Their next biggest test was
Temple, who they beat by a comfortable 14 points in a really low
scoring contest; recall that Temple gave Wake Forest all they handle
before succumbing by 3 points. Maybe the ACC isn’t that strong after
all? Or maybe South Carolina is better than the rankings indicate.
At least Kansas is playing a top-tier opponent (where I’m breaking
the 330+ Division I teams into three tiers).
======================== Sagarin =======================
Rate SoS Elo PP Perf Inc. Trend
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==============
Kansas # 3 #113 # 9 # 1 +5.5 10.6 +2.53 +/- 2.52
South Carolina # 49 #248 # 58 # 49 +3.4 11.0 -2.21 +/- 2.72
============ Massey ============ === RPI === ====
Rate SoS Pow Off Def Rate SOS Rec.
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
Kansas # 6 # 48 # # 10 # 38 # 2 # 9 6-0
South Carolina # 51 #233 # #104 # 53 # 27 # 63 5-1
======================= Dolphin ======================
Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== =====
Kansas # 5 # 6 # 3 # 2 # 2 # 5 # 11 0.480
South Carolina # 58 # 62 # 43 # 58 # 26 # 36 #135 -0.029
Here is Kansas’ season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== =====
HOME # 19 Vermont 68 61 +13.90 -6.90
HOME #168 Saint Joseph’s 91 51 +27.55 +12.45
HOME # 86 Nevada 85 52 +22.54 +10.46
HOME # 38 Pacific 81 70 +17.22 -6.22
HOME # 27 TCU 93 74 +15.16 +3.84
HOME #138 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 51 +25.67 +19.33
HOME # 49 South Carolina +19.81 0.970
HOME # 43 Wis.-Milwaukee +18.35 0.959
HOME # 7 Georgia Tech +7.11 0.750
HOME # 52 Texas A&M +19.93 0.970
AWAY # 17 Kentucky +5.89 0.711
AWAY # 64 Iowa State +13.16 0.894
AWAY # 94 Colorado +15.21 0.925
HOME # 54 Nebraska +20.12 0.972
AWAY # 81 Villanova +14.52 0.915
AWAY #324 Baylor +35.86 1.000
HOME # 9 Texas +11.00 0.851
HOME #153 Missouri +26.61 0.994
AWAY # 54 Nebraska +12.46 0.881
AWAY #109 Kansas State +16.06 0.936
HOME # 94 Colorado +22.87 0.985
AWAY # 4 Texas Tech -2.01 0.425
HOME # 64 Iowa State +20.82 0.976
AWAY # 24 Oklahoma +7.07 0.748
HOME # 3 Oklahoma State +5.20 0.689
HOME #109 Kansas State +23.72 0.988
AWAY #153 Missouri +18.95 0.964
The projected season record for Kansas now has 2.5 losses. Choose which
direction you prefer to round it. The 24-3 choice is the same as for the
previous projection; the 25-2 choice is yet another improvement, which
jumped a whole game over the projection before that. Still projecting a
road loss in Lubbock despite the Red Raiders’ loss to Ohio State. The
GaTech and Kentucky non-conference games early and the Texas Tech,
Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State conference games late are the only games for
which the projected point difference is single digits. Wow!
Here is South Carolina’s season to date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME #300 Western Carolina 87 61 +20.74 +5.26 HOME #142 Winthrop 62 52 +9.85 +0.15 HOME # 89 Temple 60 46 +6.77 +7.23 HOME #194 Appalachian State 91 57 +12.72 +21.28 HOME # 39 Clemson 62 63 +1.26 -2.26 HOME #207 South Florida 72 70 +13.57 -11.57 AWAY # 1 Kansas -19.81 0.036* Have the Phog Blog come to you! * Subscribe to Comments
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