Phog Blog » 2005

David Spade says, “Oklahoma, No-K”

posted by Mark on 1/31/2005 -

REAL Standings

Now we know. OU can’t take its act on the road. No SOONER had ISU been removed from the at-risk category for visiting contenders due to an 0-5 conference record and a home loss to bottom-feeder Colorado, than OU goes from world-beater at home to bag of fertilizer in the Iowa corn fields. They drop, accordingly, from a solid second place in the REAL standings to a tie for third with Texas–and, in the process, slip below arch-rival Okie St.

Otherwise, nothing significant occurred over the weekend: KU won as projected over UT and Mizzou; and Okie St, as projected, took care of business in Boulder. With OSU and OU both at home against non-contenders, and UT off licking their wounds until Saturday, don’t look for anything else of importance to happen before the weekend. Still, because they play the games on the court, rather than on the internet. . .

The REAL Standings one day before Punxsatawnee Phil makes his or her yearly appearance are:

1. 13-3

KU: Projected losses: at OU
At risk games Games: at NU, Mizzou, Tech, k-state
Key past games: (W at ISU)

2. 12-4

OSU: Projected losses at KU, OU
At risk games: at NU, A&M
Key past games (W at Tech, L at Texas)

3. 11.5-4.5

OU: Projected losses: at OSU, UT
At risk games: at MU, Tech, k-state
Key past games (W at A&M, L at ISU)

Texas: Projected losses: at KU, OSU
At risk games: at Tech
Key past games (L at A&M, L at OU, W at NU)

This week’s early games, rated on a 5 star scale (all times CST):

Tuesday:

* Baylor at ISU (7:00p.m.): There is nothing to recommend this game. Catch up on your reading. Go see one of the Oscar nominees.

Wednesday:

***1/2 k-state at OSU (6:00p.m): Unlikely that k-state will win this game. However, OSU is down a notch from last year. Mizzou hung with them well into the second half. If k-state does the same, they an earn some respect even if not a W.

**1/2 A&M at OU (7:00p.m.): If A&M can ever beat a legitimate team on the road, they will take another step toward respectability themselves. With OU smarting from its visit to ISU, this is no time to be visiting Norman. Still, A&M has shown just enough, and OU is just inexperienced enough, that you don’t want to miss it if A&M does pull off the Upset of the Year in the Big 12.

**Colorado at Tech (7:30p.m.): Shouldn’t be much of a game. Any game with the General and Patton on the sidelines, though, is worth checking in on until it gets out of hand.

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Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Missouri game

posted by asteroid on -

Prognostications

There’s good news and bad news. The bad news is that last year,
Kansas did the Saturday/Monday thing three times and came away
from it with a 3-3 record. The good news is that last year, all
three of those instances were home and away (or vice versa) pairs,
with all 3 losses on the road. The current pair is a home and home
affair.

The latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings give Kansas a 17.7-point edge
in the game with Missouri and a 91 percent chance of winning the
game. Kansas is still underrated, now by 2.7 points, while Missouri,
having sunk to second-last in the overall Sagarin ratings for the
Big XII conference, is actually overrated by 0.3 points, so the edge
for the Jayhawks climbs to 21 points. The one thing that Missouri
can say is that they are a more consistent team than Kansas, but
more consistently mediocre. Missouri is also showing a small but
statistically insignificant positive trend, while another game like
Saturday’s will go a long way toward erasing the negative trend for
Kansas, but is anybody expecting a 40-point blowout? Missouri did
handle Nebraska in Columbia more comfortably than Kansas did in
Lawrence, and Missouri did hang with Illinois, losing by only 6 on a
neutral court. On the other hand, the Tigers have lost twice to
Kansas State. The KU-MU games tend to be the kind of contest in
which you can throw out the statistics. The intensity of the rivalry
is one of the intangibles that make the games less predictable.

Kansas is giving up an average of 62.7 points per game, while
Missouri is scoring an average of 64.5 points per game, so one might
expect Missouri’s score in today’s game to be right around 63 or
64 points. Yet Dolphin’s prediction is for only 57. Missouri allows
an average of 65.1 points per game, while Kansas scores an average of
76.2 points per game. Which will prevail, the Kansas offense, or the
Missouri defense? Dolphin expects the former, predicting that Kansas
will score 75, for an 18 point victory, with a 94 percent chance of
winning the game.

There are three common opponents:

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court)
MU + 3 ISU at home (- 1 neutral court)
KU vs. MU +10 neutral court (+14 at home)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court)
MU - 2 CU on road (+ 2 neutral court)
KU vs. MU +17 neutral court (+21 at home)

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court)
MU +10 NU at home (+ 6 neutral court)
KU vs. MU - 8 neutral court (- 4 at home)

These three average to a 10.3-point margin in favor of Kansas, much
less than the Dolphin and adjusted Sagarin margins.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  3   # 11   +2.7   13.0   -0.68 +/- 0.64
Missouri       #117   # 33   #122   #110   -0.3    9.5   +0.11 +/- 0.38 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     16-1
Missouri       #110   # 40   #      #      #        #128   # 18     10-10

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  9   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  6   0.909
Missouri       #118   #118   #106   #135   # 62   #137   #118   0.389

Here is Kansas’ season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 24 Vermont                     68  61    +8.37    -1.37
HOME   #109 Saint Joseph’s              91  51   +17.69   +22.31
HOME   # 87 Nevada                      85  52   +16.15   +16.85
HOME   # 61 Pacific                     81  70   +14.29    -3.29
HOME   #111 TCU                         93  74   +17.73    +1.27
HOME   #121 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.45   +26.55
HOME   # 43 South Carolina              64  60   +12.21    -8.21
HOME   # 34 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.00    +0.00
HOME   # 16 Georgia Tech                70  68    +5.91    -3.91
HOME   # 41 Texas A&M                   65  60   +12.09    -7.09
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -5.94   +11.94
AWAY   # 96 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.83    -3.83
AWAY   #137 Colorado                    76  61   +11.19    +3.81
HOME   # 57 Nebraska                    59  57   +14.05   -12.05
AWAY   # 26 Villanova                   62  83    +0.39   -21.39
AWAY   #198 Baylor                      86  66   +15.58    +4.42
HOME   # 13 Texas                       90  65    +5.08   +19.92
HOME   #110 Missouri                             +17.69             0.913
AWAY   # 57 Nebraska                              +5.71             0.670
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                          +7.31             0.713
HOME   #137 Colorado                             +19.53             0.934
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                            -5.02             0.350
HOME   # 96 Iowa State                           +17.17             0.907
AWAY   #  8 Oklahoma                              -5.07             0.348
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State                        +1.55             0.547
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                         +15.65             0.886
AWAY   #110 Missouri                              +9.35             0.764

Latest season projection is back to four cumulative losses.  There are just
two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma State’s recent losses dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 1.6-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Missouri’s season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #209 Brown                       68  60   +11.26    -3.26
HOME   #131 Houston                     77  61    +5.50   +10.50
HOME   #150 Davidson                    81  84    +6.90    -9.90
NEUT   # 74 Creighton                   54  78    -2.30   -21.70
NEUT   #131 Houston                     55  57    +1.33    -3.33
HOME   #101 Murray State                59  55    +3.76    +0.24
HOME   #202 Oakland-Mich.               70  61   +10.48    -1.48
HOME   # 19 Arkansas                    52  62    -6.56    -3.44
HOME   #188 Montana                     87  62    +9.39   +15.61
HOME   # 58 Indiana                     56  53    +0.62    +2.38
NEUT   #  5 Illinois                    64  70   -15.78    +9.78
HOME   # 29 Gonzaga                     63  61    -3.31    +5.31
HOME   #147 American U.                 64  51    +6.62    +6.38
HOME   # 96 Iowa State                  62  59    +3.65    -0.65
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma State              68  78   -20.31   +10.31
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                54  74    -6.21   -13.79
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  78   -10.20    -5.80
HOME   # 57 Nebraska                    80  70    +0.53    +9.47
AWAY   #137 Colorado                    62  64    -2.33    +0.33
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                53  64    +2.13   -13.13
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                               -17.69             0.031
AWAY   # 41 Texas A&M                             -9.77             0.152
AWAY   # 64 UNLV                                  -7.37             0.219
HOME   #  8 Oklahoma                             -10.25             0.141
HOME   #198 Baylor                               +10.40             0.863
AWAY   # 57 Nebraska                              -7.81             0.206
HOME   #137 Colorado                              +6.01             0.736
AWAY   # 13 Texas                                -16.78             0.039
AWAY   # 96 Iowa State                            -4.69             0.311
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                -9.35             0.163

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Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Texas game

posted by asteroid on 1/29/2005 -

Prognostications

It’s days like today that remind me of an old, old promotional snippet
from the defunct Newlywed Game, hosted by Bob Eubanks. The wives were
asked the question about the foreign country in which the car was
manufactured, the last time their husbands rode in a foreign-made car.
First wife said Germany. Second wife said Japan. Third wife said
Britain. Fourth wife said United States, but Bob Eubanks reminded her
that it had to be a *foreign* country. She paused for a moment, and
then responded with “Texas?” Uproarious laughter ensued.

Texas actually has a higher Sagarin Pure Points rating than Kansas,
but Kansas is still being given a 3.0-point margin in today’s game by
virtue of the home court advantage. That would make it a 59 percent
probability of winning the game. Kansas is still underrated by 2.0
points, however, while Texas is overrated by 0.1 points, which raises
the margin to 5 points. Still too close for comfort. Kansas is a
considerably less consistent team than Texas, which makes a 5-point
margin even closer in relation to the inconsistency factor. Both teams
are showing negative trends, though the Longhorns’ is not statistically
significant. To lose the game, Kansas would have to perform more than
5 points below expectation, which has happened four times this season.
To win the game, Texas would have to perform more than 5 points above
expectation, which has happened six times this season. In each case,
it’s about a third of the games played, which works out to about a
67 percent chance of Kansas winning.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 76 to 71 in the Jayhawks’ favor,
and giving Kansas a 67 percent chance of winning.

Texas is a higher scoring team than the average team Kansas has faced
this season. On the other hand, both Tucker and Aldridge are now out,
though the Longhorns did play above expectation their last two games
anyway.

There are three common opponents:

KU beat BU by 20 on road (by 24 neutral court)
UT beat BU by 19 at home (by 15 neutral court)
KU over UT by 9 neutral court (by 13 at home)

KU beat A&M by 5 at home (by 1 neutral court)
UT lost A&M by 11 on road (by 7 neutral court)
KU over UT by 8 neutral court (by 12 at home)

KU beat NU by 2 at home (by -2 neutral court)
UT beat NU by 10 on road (by 6 neutral court)
KU lose UT by 8 neutral court (by 4 at home)

These three average to a 4.3-point margin in favor of Kansas, very
similar to the Dolphin and adjusted Sagarin margins.

In other Big XII action, Texas Tech is favored by 13 points at home
against Nebraska. Oklahoma is a 12-point favorite over Iowa State
on the road in Hilton; can the Hilton magic help to saddle the Sooners
with a road loss? Texas A&M is a 17-point favorite over visiting
Baylor. Missouri has only a 3-point margin against visiting Kansas
State. Colorado and Oklahoma State are idle today, but meeting in
Boulder tomorrow, where the Cowboys are favored by 12 points.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  5   #  3   # 14   +2.0   12.7   -1.25 +/- 0.63
Texas          # 13   # 49   # 18   # 10   -0.1    8.2   -0.20 +/- 0.38 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     15-1
Texas          # 17   # 31   #      #      #        # 18   # 42     15-4

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   # 11   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  8   0.856
Texas          # 15   # 14   # 14   # 23   # 18   # 14   # 11   0.852

Here is Kansas’ season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 23 Vermont                     68  61    +7.94    -0.94
HOME   #115 Saint Joseph’s              91  51   +17.67   +22.33
HOME   # 70 Nevada                      85  52   +14.49   +18.51
HOME   # 65 Pacific                     81  70   +13.96    -2.96
HOME   #111 TCU                         93  74   +17.51    +1.49
HOME   #132 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.76   +26.24
HOME   # 53 South Carolina              64  60   +12.74    -8.74
HOME   # 32 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +10.39    +0.61
HOME   # 15 Georgia Tech                70  68    +4.69    -2.69
HOME   # 34 Texas A&M                   65  60   +10.87    -5.87
AWAY   #  7 Kentucky                    65  59    -6.20   +12.20
AWAY   #107 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.95    -3.95
AWAY   #124 Colorado                    76  61    +9.82    +5.18
HOME   # 51 Nebraska                    59  57   +12.60   -10.60
AWAY   # 28 Villanova                   62  83    +1.44   -22.44
AWAY   #205 Baylor                      86  66   +15.70    +4.30
HOME   # 10 Texas                                 +2.96             0.592
HOME   #103 Missouri                             +16.73             0.906
AWAY   # 51 Nebraska                              +4.28             0.632
AWAY   # 87 Kansas State                          +7.54             0.724
HOME   #124 Colorado                             +18.14             0.923
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -4.68             0.356
HOME   #107 Iowa State                           +17.27             0.913
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -6.97             0.292
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma State                        +1.83             0.557
HOME   # 87 Kansas State                         +15.86             0.894
AWAY   #103 Missouri                              +8.41             0.746

Latest season projection is back to four cumulative losses. There are just
two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State’s recent losses dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 1.8-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Texas’ season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #237 Texas State                 95  63   +26.89    +5.11
Div2        Chaminade                   84  62
NEUT   # 26 Iowa                        80  82    +6.27    -8.27
NEUT   # 83 Tennessee                   95  70   +12.74   +12.26
HOME   #250 Coppin State                86  50   +27.84    +8.16
AWAY   #102 Seton Hall                  70  62    +9.60    -1.60
HOME   #185 North Texas                 86  57   +23.25    +5.75
HOME   #233 Texas-Arlington             85  70   +26.60   -11.60
AWAY   # 11 Wake Forest                 88  89    -3.58    +2.58
HOME   #321 Centenary                   97  52   +35.94    +9.06
HOME   #149 Texas-San Antonio          100  82   +21.06    -3.06
HOME   # 68 UNLV                        89  82   +15.54    -8.54
HOME   # 79 Memphis                     74  67   +16.29    -9.29
HOME   #205 Baylor                      79  60   +25.22    -6.22
AWAY   # 34 Texas A&M                   63  74    +3.75   -14.75
AWAY   # 51 Nebraska                    63  53    +5.48    +4.52
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma State              75  61    +3.03   +10.97
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                    60  64    -5.77    +1.77
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  80  73    +4.84    +2.16
AWAY   # 14 Kansas                                -2.96             0.359
HOME   #107 Iowa State                           +18.47             0.988
AWAY   #124 Colorado                             +11.02             0.910
HOME   # 87 Kansas State                         +17.06             0.981
HOME   # 34 Texas A&M                            +12.07             0.929
AWAY   #205 Baylor                               +16.90             0.980
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -3.48             0.336
HOME   #103 Missouri                             +17.93             0.986
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                              +2.55             0.622
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma State                        -5.29             0.259

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Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Baylor game

posted by asteroid on 1/25/2005 -

Prognostications

It’s Baylor. Should be an easy game to call, right? After all,
Baylor is picked to finish last in the Big XII, and they’re going up
against a contender. Their highest ranking comes in Dolphin’s pairwise
list, where the Bears are #185. They’ve played one of the weakest
schedules in Division I.

The Sagarin Pure Points ratings give Kansas a 14.5-point edge in the
contest with an 87 percent chance of winning the game. Kansas is still
underrated by 2.5 points, while the Bears are overrated by 1.1 points,
which would boost the margin in favor of Kansas to a comfortable 18.2
points.

But here is where things get interesting. Baylor has been getting
better. They are showing a positive trend of 2.4 points per game.
Look at how they played 26 points below expectation against Louisiana
Monroe, 12 points below expectation against Arkansas Pine Bluff, 16
points below expectation against Corpus Christi, and 22 points below
expectation against SMU, all right after one another at the beginning
of the season. Then came the turnaround. They played 11 points
above expectation against Prairie View, 11 points above expectation
against Purdue, 10 points above expectation against Chicago State, 5
points above expectation against Texas (on the road), 9 points above
expectation against Savannah State, 14 points above expectation against
Oklahoma (at home), and 10 points above expectation against Colorado
in picking up a conference victory. The only bump in that trend came
in their most recent game against Oklahoma State, when they played
3 points below expectation. If you extrapolate a 2.4 points per game
trend 7.5 games into the future, you get an improvement of a whopping
18 points.

Meanwhile, Kansas has been showing a negative trend for some time, and
after the thud in Philadelphia, it’s now at 1.58 points per game. After
all, the Jayhawks played 11 points below expectation against Nebraska
and 21 points below expectation against Villanova. If you extrapolate
that trend 8 games into the future, that’s a 13 point decline for Kansas.
In other words, the trends are enough to reverse the outcome of this
game and allow Baylor to come away with a victory. And it’s not
unprecedented either. Four years ago, a 19-3 Kansas team traveled to
Waco and came home saddled with an 8-point loss.

In other words, this game isn’t so easy to call.

Dolphin puts the final score as Kansas 76, Baylor 61, with the Jayhawks
having an 89 percent chance of winning the game. But will the recent
trends continue, or will the Jayhawks finally wake up? Some blame the
recent injuries on the poor recent performances. If that’s the case,
then things aren’t going to get much better. As long as Simien is
wearing a soft cast, you have to expect that it will affect his ability
to handle and rebound the ball. Giles has a foot bruise and is likely
to be out for the game. Galindo aggravated his groin injury. Niang
is said to have the flu. Has Langford completely recovered from the
concussion? Moody is still limping around. The question is whether
Kansas will come out of the gate with a fire in their collective
bellies after being humilated in Philadelphia.

No folks, unfortunately, this game is not so easy to call.

In one other important Big XII contest, Tucker-less Texas is a 3-point
favorite at home against Texas Tech. If Texas falls, they’re pretty
much out of the conference race.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  8   #  5   #  5   # 15   +2.5   13.2   -1.58 +/- 0.69
Baylor         #187   #317   #186   #201   -1.1   13.4   +2.42 +/- 0.60 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  3   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     14-1
Baylor         #207   #282   #      #      #        #252   #303      9-6

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  5   #  5   # 11   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  6   0.895
Baylor         #190   #191   #206   #194   #197   #185   #190  -0.524

Here is Kansas’ season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 24 Vermont                     68  61    +7.53    -0.53
HOME   #114 Saint Joseph’s              91  51   +16.68   +23.32
HOME   # 68 Nevada                      85  52   +13.71   +19.29
HOME   # 63 Pacific                     81  70   +13.49    -2.49
HOME   #119 TCU                         93  74   +16.94    +2.06
HOME   #135 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.28   +26.72
HOME   # 52 South Carolina              64  60   +12.07    -8.07
HOME   # 38 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +10.32    +0.68
HOME   # 14 Georgia Tech                70  68    +3.91    -1.91
HOME   # 37 Texas A&M                   65  60   +10.19    -5.19
AWAY   #  9 Kentucky                    65  59    -6.35   +12.35
AWAY   # 87 Iowa State                  71  66    +7.07    -2.07
AWAY   #116 Colorado                    76  61    +8.49    +6.51
HOME   # 61 Nebraska                    59  57   +13.32   -11.32
AWAY   # 28 Villanova                   62  83    +0.31   -21.31
AWAY   #201 Baylor                               +14.51             0.865
HOME   # 13 Texas                                 +3.02             0.591
HOME   #105 Missouri                             +16.07             0.889
AWAY   # 61 Nebraska                              +5.00             0.648
AWAY   #100 Kansas State                          +7.48             0.715
HOME   #116 Colorado                             +16.81             0.899
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                            -6.47             0.311
HOME   # 87 Iowa State                           +15.39             0.879
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -7.91             0.274
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma State                        +0.73             0.522
HOME   #100 Kansas State                         +15.80             0.885
AWAY   #105 Missouri                              +7.75             0.722

Latest season projection is now for five cumulative losses. There are just
two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State’s recent losses dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 0.7-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Baylor’s season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
Div2        Hillsdale                   92  51
HOME   #295 Louisiana-Monroe            61  75   +11.86   -25.86
HOME   #330 Ark.-Pine Bluff             63  53   +21.56   -11.56
HOME   #162 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     58  73    +1.17   -16.17
AWAY   # 86 SMU                         43  77   -11.61   -22.39
HOME   #310 Southern U.                 75  62   +13.61    -0.61
HOME   #332 Md.-Eastern Shore           97  73   +30.07    -6.07
HOME   #329 Prairie View A&M            84  52   +20.64   +11.36
AWAY   #123 Purdue                      73  72    -9.53   +10.53
HOME   #259 Chicago State               77  59    +7.83   +10.17
AWAY   # 13 Texas                       60  79   -23.97    +4.97
HOME   #331 Savannah State              86  50   +27.35    +8.65
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                    61  65   -18.26   +14.26
HOME   #116 Colorado                    67  59    -1.86    +9.86
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma State              53  82   -26.26    -2.74
HOME   # 15 Kansas                               -14.51             0.140
AWAY   # 37 Texas A&M                            -16.80             0.105
AWAY   # 87 Iowa State                           -11.60             0.193
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma State                       -17.94             0.090
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                           -25.14             0.030
HOME   # 61 Nebraska                              -5.35             0.345
AWAY   #105 Missouri                             -10.92             0.208
HOME   # 13 Texas                                -15.65             0.122
AWAY   #100 Kansas State                         -11.19             0.202
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                             -26.58             0.024
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                           -16.82             0.105
HOME   # 37 Texas A&M                             -8.48             0.263

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Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Villanova game

posted by asteroid on 1/22/2005 -

Prognostications

Because of the early tip-off, I’m using the Sagarin Pure Points ratings
through games of Thursday for the latest projections. Fortunately,
there are relatively few games on Friday, so the situation won’t change
much.

To say that the Villanova game should be interesting is an understatement.
Sagarin gives Kansas a scant 2.2-point edge in the contest, which
translates into a 58 percent chance of winning using the 11.4-point
inconsistency factor for Kansas. The Jayhawks are playing 3.3 points
above their Pure Points rating, but Villanova is playing 2.6 points
above their rating, so the margin increases to only 3 points. Kansas
is showing a negative trend with fair significance, while Villanova is
showing a tiny positive trend of no statistical significance.

If you ignore the surprising blowout win over a previously undefeated
West Virginia team, Villanova would be showing one of smallest
inconsistency factors I’ve seen, with performances ranging from 6 points
above expectation against Middle Tennessee to 10 points below expectation
against Georgetown. Unfortunately, with a difference of just 3 points,
it wouldn’t be uncommon for Villanova to overcome that deficit, though
they’ve done it only three times this season. Meanwhile, Kansas has
played 3 or more points below expectation five times this season. It
would not be a surprise for the Jayhawks to come up short in this game.

Dolphin predicts an even closer affair, giving Kansas a mere 0.9-point
edge and just a 53 percent chance of winning. He’s predicting a final
score of 67 to 66.

There are no common opponents.

In other Big XII action, there are several interesting matchups.
Visiting Nebraska is favored by 0.8 points in Columbia. Oklahoma at
home is a 7 point favorite over Tucker-less Texas. Iowa State is
usually tough at home, so they have a 7 point edge on visiting
Colorado. Texas A&M is favored by 9 points over Kansas State in
College Station. The laugher of the day is Baylor at Oklahoma State,
where the Cowboys are projected to have a 27 point advantage. Texas
Tech is idle until Tuesday.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  6   #  1   # 12   +3.3   11.4   -1.11 +/- 0.72
Villanova      # 44   #131   # 66   # 33   +2.6    9.2   +0.14 +/- 0.71 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  1   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     14-0
Villanova      # 63   # 79   #      #      #        # 57   # 78      9-4

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  9   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  5   0.824
Villanova      # 57   # 55   # 26   # 56   # 43   # 41   # 57   0.501

Here is Kansas’ season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 23 Vermont                     68  61    +8.48    -1.48
HOME   #124 Saint Joseph’s              91  51   +18.11   +21.89
HOME   # 77 Nevada                      85  52   +15.10   +17.90
HOME   # 74 Pacific                     81  70   +14.86    -3.86
HOME   #113 TCU                         93  74   +17.35    +1.65
HOME   #145 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +19.57   +25.43
HOME   # 52 South Carolina              64  60   +13.04    -9.04
HOME   # 40 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.23    -0.23
HOME   # 11 Georgia Tech                70  68    +3.45    -1.45
HOME   # 38 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.04    -6.04
AWAY   # 10 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.74   +10.74
AWAY   #100 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.09    -3.09
AWAY   #135 Colorado                    76  61   +10.74    +4.26
HOME   # 47 Nebraska                    59  57   +12.37   -10.37
AWAY   # 33 Villanova                             +2.22             0.577
AWAY   #208 Baylor                               +15.80             0.917
HOME   # 15 Texas                                 +4.88             0.666
HOME   #110 Missouri                             +17.21             0.935
AWAY   # 47 Nebraska                              +4.23             0.645
AWAY   # 95 Kansas State                          +7.96             0.758
HOME   #135 Colorado                             +18.88             0.951
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                            -5.74             0.307
HOME   #100 Iowa State                           +16.23             0.923
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -6.39             0.287
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State                        +1.08             0.538
HOME   # 95 Kansas State                         +16.10             0.921
AWAY   #110 Missouri                              +9.07             0.787

Latest season projection is still for four cumulative losses. There are now
just two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State’s recent loss dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 1.1-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Villanova’s season to date:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #296 UMBC(Md-Balt)               66  41   +24.87    +0.13
NEUT   # 43 Temple                      52  53    +1.19    -2.19
HOME   #211 Monmouth-NJ                 70  50   +17.92    +2.08
AWAY   #213 La Salle                    54  43    +9.84    +1.16
HOME   #217 Fordham                     68  47   +18.19    +2.81
HOME   #160 Albany-NY                   86  72   +14.09    -0.09
HOME   #138 Middle Tennessee            81  62   +12.68    +6.32
HOME   # 81 Pennsylvania                74  64    +9.17    +0.83
HOME   # 72 West Virginia               84  46    +8.48   +29.52
AWAY   # 59 Notre Dame                  72  78    -0.43    -5.57
AWAY   # 61 Providence                  83  78    -0.10    +5.10
HOME   # 65 Georgetown                  64  66    +8.15   -10.15
AWAY   # 31 Boston College              66  67    -4.41    +3.41
HOME   # 12 Kansas                                -2.22             0.405

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Chi-town is fat…around the Bulls, whatever that means

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 1/20/2005 -

Kirk Hinrich is suddenly receiving a lot of attention now that the Bulls aren’t dusting the NBA’s dirty (yet still very expensive) cellar. Indeed, everyone’s talking about the Bulls these days and it’s darn hard to talk about the Bulls without talking out a cagey, unassuming, tough as nails Jayhawk named Kirk Hinrich. Today, people are talking about the All-Star Game for young Kirk:

So, why couldn’t the Bulls have their first All-Star since 1998 in Kirk Hinrich? [snip] Everyone’s fat around the Bulls these days.

Especially Hinrich, who leads the Bulls in scoring, assists, steals, three-pointers made and minutes played. He is shooting 83 percent on free throws, playing both guard positions and usually defending the opponents’ tougher or bigger guard since the beginning of December. So why not, finally, a Bulls’ All-Star?

What follows this quote is a rather tedious dissection of the All Star potentials besides Kirk, which calls out Paul Pierce as a “pouting, selfish shooter”. In other words, it’s not worth reading unless you want to hear yet another writer do all but scream at the ignorant All-Star voting public which seems to be hell-bent on making Vince Carter the guy to be voted to an All-Star team no matter what he does.

Read it if you like, but most of the red meat is above.

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Way off topic: The GIANT baby

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on -

General

A baby was born to a Brazilian woman that one doctor called a “Giant Baby”. He’s so big, I’m not even really that comfortable showing him on this site.

Ah well, I feel better now. For your viewing pleasure, weighing in at an astonishing 16.7 pounds as he sucked in his first gasps of air, el bebe gigante, Ademilton Ramos dos Santos:

Ademilton Ramos dos Santos - The Giantest Baby you've ever seen!

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REAL Standings: It’s KU’s title to lose–and they’re trying. .

posted by Markkuok on -

The REAL Standings seem a bit SUR-real after Wednesday night’s effort–or lack thereof–by the Kinda Big Blue.

Yes, KU is still leading the pack both in the REAL Standings and the newspaper standings, and yes, the Big 12 conference championship is still KU’s to lose. The problem is, they almost look like losing it is no their goal, since doing so will almost be more of a challenge than winning it.

Only two changes of any significance in this edition of the REAL Standings. OU picks up half a game by brining A&M back to reality in College Station. That was an at-risk game for the Sooners, considering how A&M played UT at home.

However, OU, as well as KU, back up half a game by re-characterizing all games in Manhattan as at-risk games for contenders. True, a 20 point victory over Mizzou doesn’t mean what it used to, but KU’s four victories combined have been by only 7 more points than k-state’s margin in that game. Not to mention that k-state took NU to double OT at Lincoln. Pretty impressive compared to the KBB’s dodge of a Big Red bullet at home in the form of a wide open game winning three-pointer–the kind of shot k-state and NU traded like baseball cards 11 days earlier when the game was on the line. Fortunately, NU couldn’t pull one of those shots out of the hat Wednesday night at the buzzer with the mystique of Allen Fieldhouse thrown into the equation.

In other words, only Baylor and CU are now considered automatic road wins for contenders.

The only other early week game had no effect on the REAL Standings, as Texas downed OSU in Austin as projected.

A monster game, however, is on tap this Saturday as UT takes on OU in Norman. As are all home games–particularly against other contenders–this is a Must Win game for the Sooners.

The midweek REAL Standings on 1/20/05 are:

1. 13-3

KU: Projected losses: at OU
At risk games Games: at NU, Mizzou, Tech, k-state
Key past games (W at ISU)

2. 12-4

OU: Projected losses: at OSU, UT
At risk games: at ISU, MU, Tech, k-state
Key past games (W at A&M)

OSU: Projected losses at KU, OU
At risk games: at NU, A&M
Key past games (W at Tech, L at Texas)

4. 11.5-4.5

Texas: Projected losses: at KU, OSU, OU
At risk games: at Tech
Key past games (L at A&M, W at NU)

Saturday’s Big 12 games, rated on a scale of 1-5 stars (5 being cancel everything, but watch this game, and 1 being keep the game on in the background as an insomnia cure):

***NU at MU (12:30p.m.) (If NU had anything to do with making Wednesday’s game a nailbiter in Lawrence, they should be able to take out Mizzou in Columbia. Note: My money’s on Mizzou)

**Baylor at Okie State (12:30p.m.) (Yes, Baylor is improved, but not enough to give an angry OSU team a run for its money in Stillwater. The second star is the interest factor in seeing exactly what OSU can do this year to an out-manned team when it’s mad)

*****Texas at OU (2:45p.m.) (It’s not at the Cotton Bowl, but it’s still Texas/Oklahoma–and Texas even has a chance in a Barnes/Sampson Battle of Wits, seeing as how both coaches in this sport have wits)

***k-state at A&M (3:00p.m.) (Report Card time for both programs–which one is a fraud and which is for REAL. Or are both frauds–or for REAL?)

*CU at ISU (7:00p.m.) (Good night for a movie. Might I suggest Hotel Rwanda?)

–Mark

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Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Nebraska game

posted by asteroid on 1/19/2005 -

Prognostications

Home, Sweet Home.

Sagarin sez that Kansas is favored by 14.7 points and has a 91 percent
chance of beating Nebraska. Both teams are underrated, Kansas by 4.3
points and Nebraska by 2.0 points, which boosts the margin to 17.0 points.
Nebraska is the less consistent of the two teams, but the difference is
not that large. Both teams show a negative trend; however, Nebraska’s
is not statistically significant, and in the case of Kansas, it basically
means that the Jayhawks haven’t had a blowout win recently, which could
be attributed to the absence of Simien in several of those games.

Dolphin predicts a similar 14.8-point margin and 91 percent chance of
winning for Kansas, but in addition predicts a final score of 70 to 55.

There is one common opponent:

KU beat CU by 15 on the road (by 19 neutral court)
NU beat CU by 7 on the road (by 11 neutral court)
KU over NU by 8 neutral court (by 12 at home)

All three indicators are pretty consistent, pointing to a 12- to 15-point
victory for Kansas.

Only two other Big XII games today. Texas Tech is favored by nearly
10 points on the road at Missouri. Although of no consequence as far
as the conference crown is concerned, the closest game could be Colorado
on the road at Baylor, where the Buffaloes are favored over the Bears by
a bit less than 2 points.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  3   #  4   #  2   # 12   +4.3   10.8   -0.91 +/- 0.79
Nebraska       # 77   #232   #102   # 66   +2.0   12.0   -0.47 +/- 0.92 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  1   #  3   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     13-0
Nebraska       #104   #115   #      #      #        #140   #142      8-5

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  6   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  4   0.877
Nebraska       #109   #105   # 65   #118   # 87   # 81   #109   0.299

Here is Kansas’ season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 21 Vermont                     68  61    +7.45    -0.45
HOME   #113 Saint Joseph’s              91  51   +17.73   +22.27
HOME   # 80 Nevada                      85  52   +15.81   +17.19
HOME   # 56 Pacific                     81  70   +14.08    -3.08
HOME   #104 TCU                         93  74   +17.27    +1.73
HOME   #168 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +21.01   +23.99
HOME   # 50 South Carolina              64  60   +12.94    -8.94
HOME   # 43 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.69    -0.69
HOME   #  9 Georgia Tech                70  68    +3.61    -1.61
HOME   # 42 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.68    -6.68
AWAY   # 11 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.34   +10.34
AWAY   # 86 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.03    -3.03
AWAY   #135 Colorado                    76  61   +10.51    +4.49
HOME   # 66 Nebraska                             +14.67             0.912
AWAY   # 35 Villanova                             +2.32             0.585
AWAY   #225 Baylor                               +16.41             0.935
HOME   # 15 Texas                                 +5.62             0.698
HOME   #111 Missouri                             +17.48             0.947
AWAY   # 66 Nebraska                              +6.29             0.719
AWAY   #105 Kansas State                          +8.91             0.795
HOME   #135 Colorado                             +18.89             0.960
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -4.60             0.335
HOME   # 86 Iowa State                           +16.41             0.935
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -6.49             0.274
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma State                        +2.12             0.578
HOME   #105 Kansas State                         +17.29             0.945
AWAY   #111 Missouri                              +9.10             0.800

Latest season projection is for four cumulative losses. There are now
just two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State’s recent loss dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 2.1-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Nebraska’s season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #329 Ark.-Pine Bluff             97  40   +28.76   +28.24
HOME   #290 Texas Southern              78  58   +20.47    -0.47
AWAY   # 37 UAB                         66  80    -7.73    -6.27
HOME   #277 Morgan State                64  34   +18.91   +11.09
HOME   # 47 Minnesota                   48  57    +1.84   -10.84
HOME   # 72 Creighton                   48  50    +4.80    -6.80
HOME   #313 N.C. A&T                    71  49   +22.49    -0.49
AWAY   # 70 Marquette                   62  81    -3.79   -15.21
AWAY   # 98 Tennessee                   62  61    -1.73    +2.73
HOME   #228 Montana State               78  45   +14.71   +18.29
HOME   #105 Kansas State                95  85    +6.81    +3.19
AWAY   #135 Colorado                    68  61    +0.03    +6.97
HOME   # 15 Texas                       53  63    -4.86    -5.14
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                               -14.67             0.111
AWAY   #111 Missouri                              -1.38             0.454
HOME   # 42 Texas A&M                             +1.20             0.540
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                           -15.08             0.105
HOME   #253 Utah Valley State                    +16.62             0.917
HOME   # 12 Kansas                                -6.29             0.300
HOME   # 86 Iowa State                            +5.93             0.689
AWAY   #225 Baylor                                +5.93             0.689
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                             -16.97             0.079
HOME   #111 Missouri                              +7.00             0.720
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma State                        -8.36             0.243
AWAY   # 86 Iowa State                            -2.45             0.419
HOME   #135 Colorado                              +8.41             0.758
AWAY   #105 Kansas State                          -1.57             0.448

Nebraska is projected to win just 5.6 more conference games, possibly
leaving them with a .500 record, good enough for the top of the bottom
half of the conference.

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ESPN Poll indicates the foolishness of mobs

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on -

ESPN has predicted their Final Four. Not surprisingly, they include Illinois, Wake Forest, UNC and Kansas, as just about everyone is doing these days, for just about the same reasons.

Included in their feature is the “Sportsnation” poll, which asks respondents a number of questions regarding their opinions on the above final four scenario.

My favorite, the last question:

6) Who would you want designing a play with the national title on the line?

48.4% Roy Williams, North Carolina
22.9% Bruce Weber, Illinois
19.2% Bill Self, Kansas
9.5% Skip Prosser, Wake Forest

Make your own conclusions - I just work here.

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Classic Coach K Photoshops

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on -

General

I know that many of you have seen these, but it’s never inappropriate to cull the finest of photoshops of Coach K for the enjoyment of loyal Phog Blog readers. Here are a few - feel free to share with your friends.

If you’re interested, these images come from an old photoshop contest at Fark.com.

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Advice for beating OSU

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on -

Via the College Basketball Blog

Mike Baldwin of the Oklahoman summarizes Oklahoma State’s weaknesses following a surprisingly poor performance against the Texas Longhorns. My advice for future OSU opponents? Get Eddie Sutton’s players into foul trouble.

The Cowboys lack quality depth. Zone defenses have caused trouble for one of the nation’s best shooting teams. Coaches don’t have confidence in any of the three big men in pressure situations. Team chemistry, a strength last season, must improve. And leadership, an expected positive, was absent against the Longhorns.

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