Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Nebraska game
Home, Sweet Home.
Sagarin sez that Kansas is favored by 14.7 points and has a 91 percent
chance of beating Nebraska. Both teams are underrated, Kansas by 4.3
points and Nebraska by 2.0 points, which boosts the margin to 17.0 points.
Nebraska is the less consistent of the two teams, but the difference is
not that large. Both teams show a negative trend; however, Nebraska’s
is not statistically significant, and in the case of Kansas, it basically
means that the Jayhawks haven’t had a blowout win recently, which could
be attributed to the absence of Simien in several of those games.
Dolphin predicts a similar 14.8-point margin and 91 percent chance of
winning for Kansas, but in addition predicts a final score of 70 to 55.
There is one common opponent:
KU beat CU by 15 on the road (by 19 neutral court)
NU beat CU by 7 on the road (by 11 neutral court)
KU over NU by 8 neutral court (by 12 at home)
All three indicators are pretty consistent, pointing to a 12- to 15-point
victory for Kansas.
Only two other Big XII games today. Texas Tech is favored by nearly
10 points on the road at Missouri. Although of no consequence as far
as the conference crown is concerned, the closest game could be Colorado
on the road at Baylor, where the Buffaloes are favored over the Bears by
a bit less than 2 points.
======================== Sagarin =======================
Rate SoS Elo PP Perf Inc. Trend
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==============
Kansas # 3 # 4 # 2 # 12 +4.3 10.8 -0.91 +/- 0.79
Nebraska # 77 #232 #102 # 66 +2.0 12.0 -0.47 +/- 0.92
============ Massey ============ === RPI === ====
Rate SoS Pow Off Def Rate SOS Rec.
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
Kansas # 1 # 3 # # # # 1 # 1 13-0
Nebraska #104 #115 # # # #140 #142 8-5
======================= Dolphin ======================
Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== =====
Kansas # 2 # 2 # 6 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 4 0.877
Nebraska #109 #105 # 65 #118 # 87 # 81 #109 0.299
Here is Kansas’ season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== =====
HOME # 21 Vermont 68 61 +7.45 -0.45
HOME #113 Saint Joseph’s 91 51 +17.73 +22.27
HOME # 80 Nevada 85 52 +15.81 +17.19
HOME # 56 Pacific 81 70 +14.08 -3.08
HOME #104 TCU 93 74 +17.27 +1.73
HOME #168 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 51 +21.01 +23.99
HOME # 50 South Carolina 64 60 +12.94 -8.94
HOME # 43 Wis.-Milwaukee 73 62 +11.69 -0.69
HOME # 9 Georgia Tech 70 68 +3.61 -1.61
HOME # 42 Texas A&M 65 60 +11.68 -6.68
AWAY # 11 Kentucky 65 59 -4.34 +10.34
AWAY # 86 Iowa State 71 66 +8.03 -3.03
AWAY #135 Colorado 76 61 +10.51 +4.49
HOME # 66 Nebraska +14.67 0.912
AWAY # 35 Villanova +2.32 0.585
AWAY #225 Baylor +16.41 0.935
HOME # 15 Texas +5.62 0.698
HOME #111 Missouri +17.48 0.947
AWAY # 66 Nebraska +6.29 0.719
AWAY #105 Kansas State +8.91 0.795
HOME #135 Colorado +18.89 0.960
AWAY # 10 Texas Tech -4.60 0.335
HOME # 86 Iowa State +16.41 0.935
AWAY # 4 Oklahoma -6.49 0.274
HOME # 5 Oklahoma State +2.12 0.578
HOME #105 Kansas State +17.29 0.945
AWAY #111 Missouri +9.10 0.800
Latest season projection is for four cumulative losses. There are now
just two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State’s recent loss dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 2.1-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.
Here is Nebraska’s season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME #329 Ark.-Pine Bluff 97 40 +28.76 +28.24 HOME #290 Texas Southern 78 58 +20.47 -0.47 AWAY # 37 UAB 66 80 -7.73 -6.27 HOME #277 Morgan State 64 34 +18.91 +11.09 HOME # 47 Minnesota 48 57 +1.84 -10.84 HOME # 72 Creighton 48 50 +4.80 -6.80 HOME #313 N.C. A&T 71 49 +22.49 -0.49 AWAY # 70 Marquette 62 81 -3.79 -15.21 AWAY # 98 Tennessee 62 61 -1.73 +2.73 HOME #228 Montana State 78 45 +14.71 +18.29 HOME #105 Kansas State 95 85 +6.81 +3.19 AWAY #135 Colorado 68 61 +0.03 +6.97 HOME # 15 Texas 53 63 -4.86 -5.14 AWAY # 12 Kansas -14.67 0.111 AWAY #111 Missouri -1.38 0.454 HOME # 42 Texas A&M +1.20 0.540 AWAY # 10 Texas Tech -15.08 0.105 HOME #253 Utah Valley State +16.62 0.917 HOME # 12 Kansas -6.29 0.300 HOME # 86 Iowa State +5.93 0.689 AWAY #225 Baylor +5.93 0.689 AWAY # 4 Oklahoma -16.97 0.079 HOME #111 Missouri +7.00 0.720 HOME # 5 Oklahoma State -8.36 0.243 AWAY # 86 Iowa State -2.45 0.419 HOME #135 Colorado +8.41 0.758 AWAY #105 Kansas State -1.57 0.448
Nebraska is projected to win just 5.6 more conference games, possibly
leaving them with a .500 record, good enough for the top of the bottom
half of the conference.
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