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fda approved cialisIt’s days like today that remind me of an old, old promotional snippet
from the defunct Newlywed Game, hosted by Bob Eubanks. The wives were
asked the question about the foreign country in which the car was
manufactured, the last time their husbands rode in a foreign-made car.
First wife said Germany. Second wife said Japan. Third wife said
Britain. Fourth wife said United States, but Bob Eubanks reminded her
that it had to be a *foreign* country. She paused for a moment, and
then responded with “Texas?” Uproarious laughter ensued.
Texas actually has a higher Sagarin Pure Points rating than Kansas,
but Kansas is still being given a 3.0-point margin in today’s game by
virtue of the home court advantage. That would make it a 59 percent
probability of winning the game. Kansas is still underrated by 2.0
points, however, while Texas is overrated by 0.1 points, which raises
the margin to 5 points. Still too close for comfort. Kansas is a
considerably less consistent team than Texas, which makes a 5-point
margin even closer in relation to the inconsistency factor. Both teams
are showing negative trends, though the Longhorns’ is not statistically
significant. To lose the game, Kansas would have to perform more than
5 points below expectation, which has happened four times this season.
To win the game, Texas would have to perform more than 5 points above
expectation, which has happened six times this season. In each case,
it’s about a third of the games played, which works out to about a
67 percent chance of Kansas winning.
Dolphin is predicting a final score of 76 to 71 in the Jayhawks’ favor,
and giving Kansas a 67 percent chance of winning.
Texas is a higher scoring team than the average team Kansas has faced
this season. On the other hand, both Tucker and Aldridge are now out,
though the Longhorns did play above expectation their last two games
anyway.
There are three common opponents:
KU beat BU by 20 on road (by 24 neutral court)
UT beat BU by 19 at home (by 15 neutral court)
KU over UT by 9 neutral court (by 13 at home)
KU beat A&M by 5 at home (by 1 neutral court)
UT lost A&M by 11 on road (by 7 neutral court)
KU over UT by 8 neutral court (by 12 at home)
KU beat NU by 2 at home (by -2 neutral court)
UT beat NU by 10 on road (by 6 neutral court)
KU lose UT by 8 neutral court (by 4 at home)
These three average to a 4.3-point margin in favor of Kansas, very
similar to the Dolphin and adjusted Sagarin margins.
In other Big XII action, Texas Tech is favored by 13 points at home
against Nebraska. Oklahoma is a 12-point favorite over Iowa State
on the road in Hilton; can the Hilton magic help to saddle the Sooners
with a road loss? Texas A&M is a 17-point favorite over visiting
Baylor. Missouri has only a 3-point margin against visiting Kansas
State. Colorado and Oklahoma State are idle today, but meeting in
Boulder tomorrow, where the Cowboys are favored by 12 points.
======================== Sagarin =======================
Rate SoS Elo PP Perf Inc. Trend
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==============
Kansas # 4 # 5 # 3 # 14 +2.0 12.7 -1.25 +/- 0.63
Texas # 13 # 49 # 18 # 10 -0.1 8.2 -0.20 +/- 0.38
============ Massey ============ === RPI === ====
Rate SoS Pow Off Def Rate SOS Rec.
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
Kansas # 2 # 4 # # # # 1 # 1 15-1
Texas # 17 # 31 # # # # 18 # 42 15-4
======================= Dolphin ======================
Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== =====
Kansas # 3 # 3 # 11 # 1 # 1 # 2 # 8 0.856
Texas # 15 # 14 # 14 # 23 # 18 # 14 # 11 0.852
Here is Kansas’ season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== =====
HOME # 23 Vermont 68 61 +7.94 -0.94
HOME #115 Saint Joseph’s 91 51 +17.67 +22.33
HOME # 70 Nevada 85 52 +14.49 +18.51
HOME # 65 Pacific 81 70 +13.96 -2.96
HOME #111 TCU 93 74 +17.51 +1.49
HOME #132 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 51 +18.76 +26.24
HOME # 53 South Carolina 64 60 +12.74 -8.74
HOME # 32 Wis.-Milwaukee 73 62 +10.39 +0.61
HOME # 15 Georgia Tech 70 68 +4.69 -2.69
HOME # 34 Texas A&M 65 60 +10.87 -5.87
AWAY # 7 Kentucky 65 59 -6.20 +12.20
AWAY #107 Iowa State 71 66 +8.95 -3.95
AWAY #124 Colorado 76 61 +9.82 +5.18
HOME # 51 Nebraska 59 57 +12.60 -10.60
AWAY # 28 Villanova 62 83 +1.44 -22.44
AWAY #205 Baylor 86 66 +15.70 +4.30
HOME # 10 Texas +2.96 0.592
HOME #103 Missouri +16.73 0.906
AWAY # 51 Nebraska +4.28 0.632
AWAY # 87 Kansas State +7.54 0.724
HOME #124 Colorado +18.14 0.923
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech -4.68 0.356
HOME #107 Iowa State +17.27 0.913
AWAY # 4 Oklahoma -6.97 0.292
HOME # 6 Oklahoma State +1.83 0.557
HOME # 87 Kansas State +15.86 0.894
AWAY #103 Missouri +8.41 0.746
Latest season projection is back to four cumulative losses. There are just
two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State’s recent losses dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 1.8-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.
Here is Texas’ season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== =====
HOME #237 Texas State 95 63 +26.89 +5.11
Div2 Chaminade 84 62
NEUT # 26 Iowa 80 82 +6.27 -8.27
NEUT # 83 Tennessee 95 70 +12.74 +12.26
HOME #250 Coppin State 86 50 +27.84 +8.16
AWAY #102 Seton Hall 70 62 +9.60 -1.60
HOME #185 North Texas 86 57 +23.25 +5.75
HOME #233 Texas-Arlington 85 70 +26.60 -11.60
AWAY # 11 Wake Forest 88 89 -3.58 +2.58
HOME #321 Centenary 97 52 +35.94 +9.06
HOME #149 Texas-San Antonio 100 82 +21.06 -3.06
HOME # 68 UNLV 89 82 +15.54 -8.54
HOME # 79 Memphis 74 67 +16.29 -9.29
HOME #205 Baylor 79 60 +25.22 -6.22
AWAY # 34 Texas A&M 63 74 +3.75 -14.75
AWAY # 51 Nebraska 63 53 +5.48 +4.52
HOME # 6 Oklahoma State 75 61 +3.03 +10.97
AWAY # 4 Oklahoma 60 64 -5.77 +1.77
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 80 73 +4.84 +2.16
AWAY # 14 Kansas -2.96 0.359
HOME #107 Iowa State +18.47 0.988
AWAY #124 Colorado +11.02 0.910
HOME # 87 Kansas State +17.06 0.981
HOME # 34 Texas A&M +12.07 0.929
AWAY #205 Baylor +16.90 0.980
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech -3.48 0.336
HOME #103 Missouri +17.93 0.986
HOME # 4 Oklahoma +2.55 0.622
AWAY # 6 Oklahoma State -5.29 0.259
* Have the Phog Blog come to you! * Subscribe to Comments
February 1st, 2005 at 12:41 pm
First of all, I’m very, very impressed with your analysis. Well done. Second, I’m going to include a link to your site on my own University of Texas blog. If you want to link your own readers to me, that’d be fantasitc.
I’d also love to learn a bit more about some of this statistical analysis you’re running using the Sagarin numbers. Shoot me an email if you get a chance.
Great work on this blog…
Best,
Peter Bean
All Things Longhorn