Travis Robinett over at the Kansan thinks it’s possible. And I, too, think it’s possible, although I would put the odds at that happening at about 2-5%.

Okay, so a 14-2 conference record isn’t likely, but it is possible. A 10-6 record is certainly within reach. A team with the No. 1 shooting percentage defense in the country and a sudden offensive burst of 90 points per game during the past five games, no team will want to see Kansas in its bracket on Selection Sunday when, not if, the Jayhawks are selected.

I agree. No one will want to see KU. No one. And I think we’ll have a 4-7 seed, for what it’s worth.

Can anyone challenge my wild-eyed assertions?

KU versus Duke:

2006-01-07 @ Kansas 73 Kentucky 46

2005-11-22 Kentucky 80 West Virginia 66 Kansas City, MO

2006-01-11 @ West Virginia 68 Georgetown 61

2006-01-21 @ Georgetown 87 Duke 84

Transitivity proves that Kansas is better than Duke. This 4 game conquering path predicts: Kansas over Duke by 51 points.

KU versus UCONN: 

2006-01-21 @ Kansas 96 Nebraska 54

2005-11-30 @ Nebraska 84 Marquette 74

2006-01-03 @ Marquette 94 Connecticut 79

Transitivity proves that Kansas is better than Connecticut. This 3 game conquering path predicts: Kansas over Connecticut by 67 points.

Date from mratings.com

I’ve come across a couple of KU tickets for tonight’s game in section 3 row 24. Face ($40/) will get you into the Fieldhouse to watch KU dismantle Bobby Knight’s struggling Texas Tech team.

First email wins, so hop on it.

Available for pickup anywhere in Lawrence.

Here you go. Five votes in one poll and se7en in the other.

Flying this low, they might harpoon us, but they sure as hell won’t catch us on radar.

(FYI, both Pomeroy and webprince have updated their player statistics through the Iowa State game.)

The weekend’s theme seems to be that Kansas plays better on the road than they do at home. The writers and columnists on the Kansas beat will most likely have to find another hook on which to hang their stories for the rest of the week. Why? Texas Tech is 1-8 away from Lubbock.

They’ve lost all three of their conference road games (at Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma), scoring no more than 0.91 points per possession in any of them, shooting no better than 47.4 eFG% in any of the games, and turning the ball over on at least 29.5% of their possessions in each game. The loss of both Terry Martin and Drew Coffman, who both attempted just under 3 three-point shots per game, has pretty much removed the three-point shot from the Texas Tech offensive arsenal.

Texas Tech is attempting very few three-pointers (19.5% of field goal attempts) in conference play. Over two-thirds of those attempts come from Jarrius Jackson (13-28) and Darryl Dora (5-12). LucQuente White is the only other Texas Tech player attempting even one three-pointer per game in conference play. In addition to the team-wide reliance on two-point shots and free throws, two players combine to provide the bulk of Texas Tech’s scoring.

Jackson and Martin Zeno have combined to take just over half of the team’s shots in conference play and 63% of the team’s free throws. Jackson (54.7 eFG%, 79.5 FT%) and Zeno (51.4 eFG%, 71.1 FT%) both shoot the ball well though Zeno has limited his efficiency slightly by committing almost four turnovers per game in Big 12 play.

Zeno should be a tough matchup for the Jayhawk defenders tonight. His size will all allow him to shoot over smaller defenders and his quickness could give Brandon Rush some problems. To Rush’s credit, he did a fine job on Curtis Stinson in the second half Saturday after Russell Robinson picked up his third foul. To the entire team’s credit they did a good job of rotating into and out of the double teams for most of the game.

Expect a similar defensive strategy from the Jayhawks tonight as none of Texas Tech’s supporting players approach the all-around contributions of Jackson and Zeno (or even those of the solid offensive players who surround Blalock and Stinson at Iowa State).

Darryl Dora has struggled shooting the ball but leads the team in both assists and assist-to-turnover ratio. Dior Lowhorn has been effective on the glass and made over half the shots he’s taken, but like everyone on the team other than Jackson and Dora, Lowhorn is turnover prone.

The other three players in Texas Tech’s rotation, Jonathan Plefka, Martin Prince, and White, do little positive that shows up in the boxscore. Texas Tech’s defense has struggled comprehensively in conference play. Their field goal defense (they’ve only held Baylor and Oklahoma below 50 eFG%), defensive rebounding (62.8 DR%), and ability to create turnovers (21.4 TO%) has all been sub-standard. Further exaggerating their turnover deficit, only 28 of the 86 turnovers Texas Tech has forced have been the result of a steal.

The entire Texas Tech team has managed only 5 more steals than Mario Chalmers in conference play. The one thing that Texas Tech has done well defensively, keeping their opponents off the free throw line, hasn’t been much help either as their opponents have made 74.7% of the free throws they get to attempt in conference play.

As Kansas continues to lead the nation in two-point field goal defense, features a rotation wherein eight of the nine players have shot over 50% from the floor in conference play, and whose four best free throw shooters are getting to the line often, it would take an atypically strong performance from Texas Tech and an unexpectedly poor performance from Kansas for Texas Tech to win tonight.

Prediction: Kansas 80 Texas Tech 65

Mario Chalmers, who helped lead KU to two road victories last week, has been named Big XII Rookie of the Week.  Here’s the release:

Chalmers led the Jayhawks to two wins away from home as KU won at Texas A&M (83-73) and Iowa State (95-85). The freshman guard averaged 18.0 points, 6.5 assists and 4.5 steals in the two contests, shooting 60.0 percent (9-of-15) from the floor. He connected on 4-of-6 (.667) 3-pointers and finished 82.4 percent (14-of-17) from the free throw line. Chalmers established a career-high for assists at A&M, posting eight with just two turnovers. He has scored 15.9 points per game in Big 12 play.

What can we do with the Jayhawks but look upon them in awe. The last ten days have shown us the sound and the fury of Kansas Basketball. But don’t just believe me, listen to the 4th PhogCast. It was recorded earlier in the week, so please think fondly of my bold predictions.

You can listen here:

Or download here.

Enjoy. And as always, we like feedback.

BIG XII RECAP

Normally, a win by the home team is a non-event in the REAL Standings–the primary premise of which is that championships are won on the road. All you can do at home is stay alive and maintain the opportunity to separate yourself from the field on foreign territory.

But OU’s home court victory over UT Saturday was an event. Because of its early losses to. NU in Lincoln and to hapless Mizzou in Norman, OU had been downgraded from contender to just another team seeking a bye on March 9 in Dallas. And UT, fueled by a nine game winning streak, including a road win at No. 3 Memphis, had assumed an aura of invincibility in a conference of teams that were either mediocre or trying to find their way.

Saturday’s game, therefore, had changed from a projected OU victory to being characterized as an at-risk game for both teams. What was surprising was how little fight Texas put up when losing was clearly an option. Missing free throw after free throw, they went out not with a bang, but a whimper.

At any rate, the talk about UT becoming the second team to go through the conference undefeated can now stop. KU’s 2002 team retains ownership of that singular achievement. Speaking of KU, the 2006 Jayhawks’ Road victory in Ames coupled with its W on Wednesday in College Station, results in a big +2 in the REAL Standings for the week.

The Jayhawks take over 2nd place in the REAL Standings by a full game over Colorado. CU, as projected, won its home game vs. k-state. In addition to the Buffs, NU, A&M, and Tech also performed as projected by protecting their home courts vs. Mizzou, Baylor, and Okie St respectively. No movement, therefore, up or down, by any of these teams in the REAL Standings.

As an aside, Baylor, hanging tough in a 72-70 loss at A&M, gave notice that it is shaking off the rust accumulated during its non-conference suspension and intends to show up the rest of the year. Any team that does not come prepared to play the Bears-especially in Waco-is inviting serious damage to its RPI.

THE REAL STANDINGS

The REAL Standings* as of January 29, 2006, are:

1. 12.5-3.5 Texas (L at OU/No projected L’s/at risk games: at MU, Texas Tech, Okie St, k-state, A&M)

2. 10-6 Kansas (L’s vs. k-state, at Mizzou/projected L’s at NU, Okie St, UT, k-state)

3. 9-7 Colorado (L’s at UT, vs. KU/projected L’s at ISU, A&M, k-state, NU, KU)

4. 8.5-7.5 Oklahoma (L at Nebraska, vs. Mizzou/projected L’s at KU, Okie St, CU, Tech, UT/at risk game: at Baylor)

5. 8-8 k-state (L’s at ISU, vs. NU, at CU/projected L’s at Mizzou, Tech, OU, NU/at risk games: at Baylor, vs. UT)

Nebraska (L’s vs. ISU, at KU, at CU/projected L’s at OSU, UT, ISU, A&M, MU)

Texas Tech (L’s at A&M, UT, OU/projected L’s at KU, CU, NU, Okie St/at risk games: vs. UT, at Baylor)

8. 7.5-8.5 A&M (L’s vs. OU, at OSU, at k-state, vs. KU/projected L’s at OU, UT, MU, Tech/at risk games: at Baylor)

Iowa St (L’s vs. UT, at Tech, vs. A&M, vs. KU/projected L’s at k-state, KU, OU, CU/at risk games: at Baylor)

OkieSt (L at Mizzou, vs. CU at UT, at Tech/projected L’s at k-state, A&M, ISU, OU/at risk games: vs. UT)

11. 7-9 Mizzou (L vs. CU, at k-state, vs. ISU, at NU/projected L’s at Tech, KU, CU, ISU/at risk games: vs. UT, at Baylor)

GAMES TO WATCH

Big XII Games January 30-February 1, 2006, with IQ (Interest Quotient) are:

1. Texas Tech at KU (Mon. @ 8p.m.)*** The genesis of the Hawks’ demise last season, which culminated in their loss to Bucknell, was the game in Lubbock. One moment the Hawks were a 21-1 team and undefeated in conference play, with the lead and possession of the ball in the game’s final seconds. The next moment, after being mugged by Tech defenders desperately attempting to be called for a foul, Miles was charged for traveling. It was all downhill from there. The current nucleus of the Hawks was on the KU bench or in high school at the time, so who knows how much they care about last year. This year’s game in Lawrence shouldn’t be close in the final five minutes. Still, you take a Bobby Knight team for granted at your peril.

2. Nebraska at Okie St (Tue. @ 7p.m.)** “That’s boring. You’re boring. Stop boring everybody!” –Homer Simpson

3. k-state at Baylor (Wed. @ 7p.m.)*** What could be Baylor’s best chance to grab a win this season is also k-state’s best remaining chance to grab a Road win (unless Mizzou completely tanks in Q’s final games as its dead-errrrr head-coach). At any rate, this is a must game for the purple people. If k-state loses this one, they are Thursday and NIT bound.

4. A&M at Oklahoma (Wed. @ 7p.m.)***1/2 The Aggies lost to OU in College Station, so why would you think they could win in Norman-especially having just squeezed by Baylor at home while OU was taking down mighty UT? Maybe A&M was looking ahead? Maybe OU will have a letdown and/or be looking ahead to KU on Sunday? Might be an easy Sooner W. Might be a barnburner. Worth checking out.

5. Texas at Mizzou (Wed. @ 8p.m.)***1/2 Texas will be bringin’ it to take out its OU frustrations on the Tigers. It is hard to come up with a scenario in which this game is even moderately interesting. Maybe Thomas Gardner scores 81? The only reason to watch this foregone-conclusion-game is to see whether Mizzou has enough pride to compete for 25-30 minutes or has packed it in for the season. Go Big-and less green–Blue!

–Mark

*Texas, the only Tier One team, is projected to win all of its home games and to be “at risk” in all road games vs. Tier Two teams. The Tier Two teams are projected to win all home games with the exception of UT. They are projected to lose all road games not played in Manhattan and Waco. They are “at risk” against UT at home and on the road at Baylor. As always, teams can move up or down in status with meaningful road wins and embarrassing home losses.

What is it that used to keep the Hawks from attaining their goals in the post season? In fact,often caused us to be a laughingstock as we blew No. 1 Seed after No. 1 Seed?

1. Quick, heady guards who could penetrate the lane with ease for layups (their own or some otherwise mediocre big man’s) and hit the 3 all day;

2. A steady diet of big men who would simply push our inside players around for rebounds, follow shots and inside position; and

3. Pathetic free throw shooting–especially under pressure.

Bill Self has put together a team that appears to be capable of handling all three of these problems. We have the best perimeter D I have seen at KU, with the possible exception of Valentine, Douglas, and Johnson. And WE have the guards who can penetrate and dish or score.

We have enough big, strong, athletic players, with enough fouls to give, to keep the opponent’s big men from pushing us around inside. We might be outplayed to an extent inside, but we will not be dominated. Even the best frontcourts that can be thrown at us will have to work hard for everything they get.

And we can put five 70% FT shooters on the court in the end game.

Not that we will the NC this year–we still have 2 problems: (1) Inside players who have serious trouble finishing within 3 feet of the basket; and (2) experience in big game (I mean bigger than A&M and ISU) situations.

The latter will take care of itself.

As for the former, add a little moxie and efficiency by CJ, DJ, and K, and next year, we will have the best of all possible worlds–we will have the edge on everybody we play both inside and out.
And having a natural point guard won’t hurt either. Why didn’t Roy ever put this team together? I think this team could get an 8 or 9 Seed and take out a 1. Fortunately, I don’t expect us to be an 8 or 9 Seed.

I also think we are now at the apex of the coaching triangle.

–Mark

• Our guard production continues to impress me.  Self’s move of Ruh-Roh to point was inspired - I say it again.  59 points, great outside shooting, and merciless defense.
• Good guard play and great defense will make us a tough out in the NCAA tournament.
• We have a very realistic shot at 12-4 in the conference, and a 5-7 seed in the tourney doesn’t seem out of the question.
• We’ll need more post production in order to really excel, but I like what I’m seeing
• I may add more later, but I’d love to hear what people think!

Please excuse any technical difficulties we may have during this process as we’re moving from WordPress 1.5 to 2.0. It’s the biggest upgrade we’ve made in some time, so if you see anything funky, please excuse my dear Aunt Sally, as they say.

Update:  It’s 1:58, and everything appears to have gone fairly smoothly.  I know most of you don’t really care about this sort of thing, but the old Phog Blog doesn’t run itself, you know, so I like to let people know what it takes to keep the old jalopy running.

Hopefully all is well and it won’t take too much time over the weekend.

Micah Downs has begun the enrollment process according to the Spokane Spokesman Review. Said Downs:

“I really just want to focus on getting the rest of this (admissions) stuff taken care of,” he explained. “Then I’ll be willing to set down and talk to the media – hopefully by the middle of next week.”

Link to Gonzaga beat writer Steve Bergums blog entry on this topic.