Missouri Predictions?

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 2/17/2006 - -

While I expect soon to see one of Hoopinion’s most choice previews for tomorrow’s game, I would be remiss if I didn’t get my prediction in early in the day to encourage discussion and dissent.

Well, here goes. For the absurd way in which Mizzou beat KU just a few short weeks ago, and even more for the pathetic way in which Mizzou folded like a meticulously crafted Japanese fan post-KU in order to give us a bad RPI loss, I expect us to unleash an unholy terror all over the struggling Tigers.

Remember hearing how tornados could somehow thrust a piece of hay several inches into a brick? Yeah, that’s about what I’m thinking.

Boot to the head!


KU 87
MU 59

Anyone care to disagree?

17 Responses to “Missouri Predictions?”

  1. AJ Vanderhorst Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 11:21 am

    I’m going to disagree only mildly.
    KU 85
    MU 63

    Robinson and Rush combine to hold Gardner to 14 points.

  2. fed Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 11:23 am

    Blowout it will be. I’m thinking 90-50.

  3. Chalmersfan Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 11:34 am

    KU 93
    MU 68

    KU forces 22 turnovers, only commits 12.

  4. Jeremy Chrysler Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 11:45 am

    Wow, a turnover prediction!

    I predict that Melvin Watkins will use the word “disappointing’ in the post game.

  5. Peter Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 11:59 am

    I predict Watkins will sing “Eye of the Tiger” in the locker room before the game.

    KU 74
    MU 60

    Although what I want most is Rus Rob to get his shot back.

  6. Harger Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 12:14 pm

    KU 77
    MU 53

    I predict Melvin Watkins works on his resume on the bus to Lawrence.

  7. jmac Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 1:10 pm

    KU 190
    MU 15

  8. Jeremy Chrysler Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 1:14 pm

    There’s a prediction I can get behind.

  9. KCJayhawk Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 1:19 pm

    Kansas 89
    Mizzou 60

  10. DavidH Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 2:32 pm

    I’m gonna use Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency stats and my abacus to come up with

    KU 80
    MU 57

  11. Jeremy Chrysler Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 2:47 pm

    DH, how do you use KP’s efficiency stats to come up with a margin?

    Where do you get your abacus?

  12. DavidH Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 3:00 pm

    First I calculate the projected offensive efficiency of each team. For example, for KU it is:

    [KU AdjOffEff] * [MU AdjDefEff]
    ——————————–
    [NCAA median efficiency]

    You could get the median efficiency by looking at the 165th and 166th ranked offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and averaging them, but it always works out to very close to 100 (today it is 100.15), so I usually just use 100.

    This gives me 110.8 for KU and 84.1 for MU.

    Now I find the projected tempo of the game:

    [KU AdjTempo] * [MU AdjTempo]
    —————————— = 70.7
    [NCAA median AdjTempo]

    Now I combine the tempo and efficiency numbers:

    [KU ProjEff] * [ProjTempo] / 100

    For KU, 110.8 * 70.7 / 100 = 78.3
    For MU, 84.1 * 70.7 / 100 = 59.5

    Then I add 2 to KU and subtract 2 from MU for the 4-point home field advantage (the Pomeroy Ratings have an adjustment of 4.09, and Sagarin uses 3.94):

    KU 80.3
    MU 59.5

    And I rounded MU down instead of up because I don’t like them.

  13. DavidH Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 3:05 pm

    That “=70.7″ should not be in the middle of that tempo calculation.

    Oh, by the way, Pomeroy explains this on his site:

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/stats_explained/

  14. Jeremy Chrysler Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 3:09 pm

    Makes perfect sense - and it’s no wonder I didn’t figure it out - I was looking for simple addition and subtraction.

    Have you been doing this for games all season?

    Pomeroy seems to think that his efficiency stats are better than his normal rankings.

    I’ve been amazed at just how good KU looks on all of the various predictive indices:

    PREDICTIVE RANKING SUMMARY 

    Index	Ranking
Dolphin	4
Dunkel	4
Sagarin	6
Pome L5	5
PomPyth	4
Pom Eff	4
Average	4.5

    If those numbers hold, this will be a good tournament.

  15. Jeremy Chrysler Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 3:57 pm

    Using Pomeroy’s L5 numbers, KU should win by 26 or so.

    That’s how I choose to justify my boot to the head numbers of 28 above.

  16. DavidH Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 5:53 pm

    Jeremy-

    I’ve been running these numbers every once in a while just for fun, but I haven’t been doing it consistently, and I haven’t been keeping track of how accurate they’ve been

  17. Jeremy Chrysler Says:
    February 17th, 2006 at 6:35 pm

    Interesting. Well I suppose we have a test case tomorrow. Texas looks to be a 6-9 point favorite a week from Saturday if everything plays out.

    I’m hopeful that OSU can give them a game and that KSU can summon some courage to at least fight a little bit on Wednesday, but I don’t have my hopes up too much about either of those things.

    I do think that if we’re within 4 with 8 minutes to go, we’ll be in good shape to wear them down and win.

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