Projecting the 2006 NCAA Basketball Tournament Field…
Most of the bracket predictions out there are pretty lame. Most have Boston College and KU as 6-7 seeds, which, in my opinion, is bad, bad math. The tournament is less than a month away now, and I think it’s time to start making actual predictions about what seed teams will end up with. This seems to me to be a better use of time than “if the season ended today” predictions. The season doesn’t end today. This is a predictive bracket. I encourage your feedback. I admit I’m mailing it in for the 13-16 seeds.
The First Phog Blog Bracket (2/20/06):
1 Seeds:
Duke, UConn, Villanova, Memphis
2 Seeds:
Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas (-), Ohio State
3 Seeds:
Boston College, Florida, Tennessee, Iowa
4 Seeds:
Kansas, Illinois, West Virginia, GW
5 Seeds
UCLA, North Carolina State, Michigan State, Georgetown
6 Seeds
LSU, Oklahoma, UNC, George Mason
7 Seeds
Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Bucknell, Washington
8 Seeds
Cal, Nevada, Marquette, Alabama
9 Seeds
Creighton, So. Illinois, Seton Hall, Wichita St
10 Seeds
Arizona, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri State
11 Seeds
UAB, Air Force, Syracuse, Colorado
12 Seeds
W. Kentucky, San Diego State, UW-Milwaukee, NC-Wilmington
13 Seeds
Northwestern State, Montana, Akron, Iona
14 Seeds
Winthrop, Murray State, Penn, Pacific
15 Seeds
FDU, Belmont, IUPUI, Northern Arizona
16 Seeds
Georgia Southern, Albany, Delaware State, Play-in
I’ve got a feeling this thing has more holes in it than a horse-trader’s mule, or will have come Selection Sunday, but hey, there’s only so much you can do.
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31 Responses to “Projecting the 2006 NCAA Basketball Tournament Field…”
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February 20th, 2006 at 12:25 pm
I like that 4 seed.
CU in after loss to KSU? I hope so.
February 20th, 2006 at 12:35 pm
CU was one of the proverbial last 4 in. When you look at the other teams on the bubble, it was hard to leave them out.
Watch out for George Mason though, they are good.
February 20th, 2006 at 12:53 pm
Did you overlook George Washington, or am I blind?…
February 20th, 2006 at 12:57 pm
Amateur night. I didn’t want to make them a 2 and I thought that I had included them. I’d make them about a 4. Their RPI isn’t great and neither are they. They are now in, and Utah State is out. Thanks for noticing that.
February 20th, 2006 at 1:26 pm
Missouri State over Wichita State from the MVC? Is that an oops, or do you really think the Shockers won’t get in?
February 20th, 2006 at 1:39 pm
I learned to beta test from Microsoft. That was an accident. I did the first half of the bracket before lunch, and the latter half after. There’s almost certainly a conference missing.
If you want to learn empathy for the selection committee, try doing one from scratch, it’s just not that easy.
February 20th, 2006 at 3:38 pm
Look for Iowa to drop from all of this pretty soon - they’ll make the tournament no problem, but with their coach likely looking towards Indiana after the season is over, I’m thinking Iowa is going to start losing (e.g. @ Minnesota). That might be our way into a 3 seed, which, based on the #1 seeds, is far better than a #4 seed.
February 20th, 2006 at 3:50 pm
Jeff, that’s a good point about Iowa. I do think they’ll start behaving a little like the lame duck that they soon will be before too long.
Hopefully, Indiana will have the decency to not push the issue until after the tournament, but as we learned in 2003, that just doesn’t happen.
I think we control our own destiny as far as the threes go. There’s just enough time left that we can play our way into a better seed.
February 20th, 2006 at 5:30 pm
1. Winthrop and Birmingham Southern? If that happens I will bow down before you. If the Big South gets two bids those two would be it, but that’s not gonna happen.
2. Conferences missing Atlantic Sun. Unless Its Belmont vs Lipscomb in the play-in.
February 20th, 2006 at 6:05 pm
Thanks Will. I just didn’t have time to fact check the later seeds. I’ll replace BS with Belmont.
February 20th, 2006 at 6:55 pm
5 Teams from the MVC….I like the way it looks…I just don’t beleive it will happen.
February 20th, 2006 at 6:58 pm
I had a hard time with it, but really, there aren’t a lot of worthy teams out there, particularly with the likes of Wake, Maryland, Indiana, Iowa State and such falling off the map.
February 22nd, 2006 at 4:04 pm
FSU should be in there, they are the most underated team in the country.
February 22nd, 2006 at 4:17 pm
FSU is close. This week’s matchup with Maryland may very well determine which team goes and which team stays.
They could definitely surprise somebody in the tourney though.
February 22nd, 2006 at 10:52 pm
who do u have matching up against cal…..do u think they get a higher seed if they win the pac 10?
February 23rd, 2006 at 2:18 am
I don’t see KU getting a higher seed than OU given the number of rookies on the squad. I hate to say this, but I believe UCONN has the best chance at winning it all. Don’t count Texas out though. They’re better than people think and have a very deep bench. Paulino can play, no doubt. I’m an OU fan but our hopes depend on one player- Neal. If he gets hurt it’s over for us.
Da Chrisman
February 23rd, 2006 at 2:23 am
I do think one more big 12 team will make it, I’m not sure which, I have to say our conference stinks this year. However, if I had to put a finger on who, it would be Iowa State. I think they’ll make it pretty deep in the big 12 tourney and impress some of the pickin’ folks. They have some good players
da chrisman
February 23rd, 2006 at 8:08 am
DC, I hate to do this, but I’m going to have to disagree with nearly everything you just wrote.
KU beat OU head to head and will likely finish at least 2 games ahead in the Big 12. If KU doesn’t get a higher seed under those circumstances, Mizzou should probably initiate another investigation.
UT, while talented isn’t deep and it would take a miracle at this point for ISU to make a run. They’ve just lost too many bad games to get an at large bid.
I also think that OU is more than Neal and should do pretty well in the tournament, especially if they can maintain this run of luck.
February 23rd, 2006 at 4:21 pm
I appreciate your insight JC. I didn’t notice KU’s record before the post. I might have to take a look at their strength of schedule before I totally change my mind on that the OU-KU comment though. Also, the big 12 tourney is coming up. I wouldn’t be shocked if ISU won the whole thing and got an automatic bid. You didn’t discount the UCONN comment (maybe you are from Connecticut- hehe). I’ve seen Texas play a few times, and have noted that they have size, speed, and shooting ability. Maybe my deep bench comment was off base, but I haven’t seen them stuggle with foul trouble (like I think OU would if Gray, Bookout, or Neal got 4 fouls- which in Gray’s and Bookout’s cases seems to happen alot). To me, I think Colorado is a joke and won’t make it past the first round. They’ve been lucky to win as many games as they have.
Other teams I see going out early, newly crowned Cinderella Bucknell (overrated-blah!)and Ohio State (I’ve never been impressed with their program)
Teams I think will be surprises- Kentucky, Syracuse, and Arkansas.
Well, I better shut up now, I’m sure I’ve raised a few tempers and disagreements.
Peace Out.
Da Chrisman
February 23rd, 2006 at 4:39 pm
Just posting a link for the current RPI’s of the teams.
http://teamrankings.com/ncb/8powerratings.php3
hmmm, interesting, most of the higher ranked teams have lower strength of schedules, LOL
btw, OU tops Kansas in both RPI and strength of schedule rankings. I don’t know how much that means, but I think it means this.
Whoever does better in the tourney gets the 3 seed. Whoever does worse gets a 4-6 seed. Texas most likely will be a 2.
Da Chrisman
February 24th, 2006 at 8:30 pm
All this being said, I’m impressed with Kansas and definitely find it easier rooting for them than rooting for Texas. I root for the Big 12 no matter what though. I even rooted for Texas in the Football National Championship. I think Kansas is one year away though from making a run. I don’t see them getting past the Round of 32. I just hope people up there give Self a chance though. I think he’s a great coach, better than Williams in fact, and if Sampson ever left OU I would be happy to have Self as our coach (will never happen though-Self is big time-we are a football school primarily). I’m happy with Sampson. I’d love to have a Billy Tubbs, Jerry Tarkanian run up and down style type coach though. I hate the Bobby Knight bruising, slow-it-down defensive style that most teams are playing now. I like up and down running Basketball.
Anyway, in the future next few weeks, I’ll try to post some predictions related to the other conferences. The final comment about the big 12 is that 4 teams definitely make it, with a 5th dark horse of Iowa State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, or maybe even Nebraska getting an auto-bid by winning the big 12 tourney. I don’t see one of the already “in” teams winning the big 12 tourney. I think this is the year that one of the dark horses in the big 12 wins the big 12 tourney. The big 12 is very mediocre this year with the exception of Texas and OU.
Like I said earlier, Kansas has a year to go.
They have talent, but they are too young and as of yet don’t really measure up to that Fab 5 team that Michigan had a while back.
If it happens that I’m right, I think the dark horse will proceed to the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney. Nobody will be expecting them to be good enough to beat them.
Well, no more comments about the big 12 from me, unless someone solicits them.
I’ll move onto irritating other conference peoples.
On that note, I’m not thinking that Florida State has a shot of advancing in the tourney ir the get in. They might be fast and talented, but for some reason everytime I’ve seen them in tourney play, they can’t shoot worth a diddle.
Da Chrisman
February 25th, 2006 at 12:20 pm
LMAO- he thinks OU is legit but KU is a year away. The same OU team that has stolen 3 games by 1 point each this year. What a homer.
February 26th, 2006 at 2:39 pm
Well, U win ‘em any way U can. About being a homer, I’ll admit to it, probably not as bad as U KU fans though, lol.
I’m not saying OU’s going to make it to the final four either.
IMHO I think they’ll make it to the Sweet 16 though. Kansas will get beat in the round of 32.
Give those pups a year.
I’d love to hear anyone else stick it out on the line to say how far their team will go. lol
Da Chrisman
February 28th, 2006 at 9:27 pm
fsu should definitely be in there. people said if they beat maryland then theyd be in but they win by 11 and still dont get the love shown towards them. i mean i know they did lose to lowly va.tech but still they defintitely could surprise some top seeds in this years tourney. with the explosive starting five they should be in just because of there fire power potential(and there 17-8 record)
p.s. and when they beat duke on wednesday they will definitely turn a lot of heads
February 28th, 2006 at 10:13 pm
What’s with all the agendas here… Northern Iowa, and now Florida State.
March 1st, 2006 at 3:49 pm
wut are you talking about im just saying fsu deserves a shot cuz they could be one of if not the biggest surprise underdogs in the nation. they proved they could play with the best in the nation when they lost to duke 97-96 in ot in a game they should have won if the officials didnt blow it for them. then they also barely got edged out by b.c. and n.c. i mean give this sleeper a shot
March 2nd, 2006 at 10:02 pm
WHERE’S THE LOVE FOR TAMU WHO BEAT COLORADO AND JUST BEAT TEXAS WHAT KIND OF SEED TO THEY REPRESENT
March 4th, 2006 at 7:31 pm
Well, I must give FSU props for beating Duke, I think they deserve a bid now
March 5th, 2006 at 8:53 am
I CALLED THE UPSET AND NOW THAT IT CAME TRUE EVERYBODY IS BACK TO OHH YEA FSU DESERVES A BID NOW….I DONT UNDERSTAND HOW 1 GAME CAN MAKE OR BREAK YOU NI THIS TOURNAMENT. USUALLY WITH AN 18-8 RECORD YOU GO TO THE TOURNAMENT. I THINK PEOPLE JUST DONT WANT TO SEE FSU GO. AND WITH A WIN AGAINST MIAMI TODAY THEY WILL LOCK A BERTH IN THE TOURNEY.
March 16th, 2006 at 2:45 pm
Can anyone tell me if there was ever a number one seed that lost in the first round of the tournament?
March 16th, 2006 at 2:54 pm
Not since the tournament went to 64 teams has a 16 beaten a 1.