Preview: Kansas at Texas, Part One

posted by Hoopinion on 2/23/2006 - -

I’ve got too many tables for a single preview post, so here’s the breakdown:

Part One: Team stats and Backcourts
Part Two: Rush v. Tucker and Post players
Part Three: Prediction

All stats will be from conference games only as the teams played significantly different non-conference schedules and I’m not near clever enough to adjust for quality of competition faced. (Nor am I clever enough to thoroughly cut-and-paste my introduction on the first try.)
Stats glossary

Team Stats

Kansas has almost closed the efficiency gap with Texas. The Jayhawks are more reliant on their defense while the Longhorns have the best offense in the conference by a considerable margin.

Team PPP Opp PPP Diff
KU 1.09 0.86 +0.23
UT 1.18 0.93 +0.25

There’s not a lot of difference between the two teams in terms of field goal offense and defense or rebounding.

Team eFG% FTRate OR% TO%
KU Off 53.2 28.6 39.5 23.2
UT Def 44.8 27.2 29.8 20.5

Texas has more of the possessions in their games end with a shot attempt than does Kansas. The Jayhawks and their opponents are more likely to turn the ball over.

Team eFG% FTRate OR% TO%
KU Def 43.4 30.4 29.7 23.8
UT Off 53.3% 26.2 42.1 19.3

It will be incumbent upon the Jayhawks to force Texas into more turnovers. An average Texas possession in conference play is worth 1.18 points to the Longhorns. Over a 67 possession game (Kansas plays at about 70 possessions a game; Texas plays at 64.), there’s a difference of 3 turnovers between the turnover rate Kansas forces on average and the average rate at which Texas turns the ball over. That’s three-and-a-half points the Jayhawks could gain on Saturday.

On the other hand, Texas will likely do a better job of keeping Kansas off the free throw line (their lack of depth forbids them from getting into foul trouble) than the typical conference opponent and could pick up an equal number of points versus the season averages.

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KU Climbs in Power Rankings

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on - -

ESPN has us as a three seed (effectively ranked #11) in their latest Power 16, and the silver tongues are wagging our way:

Yes, KU is blasting people left and right, but aside from a one-point W over Oklahoma, is this streak a product of a mediocre Big 12? We’ll know more Saturday, but I think that answer is no.

Check out the individual voter’s breakdowns here.

Luke Winn is sprouting flightless wings this week, naming the Baby Jays the 8th best team in the nation. His sailor-tongued missive on our own Julian Wright is a must read:

Damn, Julian Wright! The Jayhawks’ freakishly athletic point/power forward scored 20 points in 22 minutes on Tuesday in a win over Baylor — on 10-of-11 shooting. It was Wright’s breakout performance this season, his first time over 15 points in a game. And according to the Kansas City Star, it was the best percentage (90.9) a KU player had shot in a Big 12 game since the venerable Mark Randall made 11 of 12 attempts against Oklahoma State in 1989.

Dunkel says 3rd best.

Pomeroy says 7th, 4th and 4th.

Sagarin Predictive says 6th.

Dolphin Predictive says 4th.

Is this team that good or do we just know how to play to make computers love us?

Micah Downs: “Kansas Really Sucked”

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on - -

MySpace is not just for pedophiles any more. Dear friends, this internet marvel now allows fans such as you and I to plumb the depths of the teenage consciousness to reveal the mysterious truths that lie therein. So what’s there? Why did Micah leave KU?

Because Kansas Sucked. Really Sucked. Or so says Micah, to his buddy snarf snarf:

im doing pretty good. kansas really sucked so i transferred to gonzaga and that is where i am now. me and natanya are still together and as strong as ever.

Glad to hear about Natty. And to know that the Red Vest has been summarily tossed into the blazing fires of fashion hell.

Micah Downs says that Kansas Really Sucked

Ken Pomeroy: KU, UNC possible 2 seeds

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on - -

UNC is really coming on and I am going to go ahead and say that this is Roy’s best coaching job in years. His team is a lot more experienced than KU’s, but probably not as talented (KU, for those who count this sort of thing, had a combined 514 minutes of career PT from this year’s starting 5 at the beginning of the year).

Says Pomeroy:

It’s possible Kansas and UNC could still play their way into their deserved seed. I doubt either will win out, but if they did, they would be looking at 2-seeds even despite the early hiccups. More than likely they lose one or two, and stay as an extremely dangerous 4 or 5. How would a KU/UNC sweet sixteen game sound? Come to think of it, that’s exactly what the folks at CBS Sports would want.

It would be a shame to see that matchup early in the tournament. Wouldn’t that be a second round game though? Maybe I’m missing something.

Per Hoopinion’s comment, I thought bracket junkies might be interested in this Grade A Smack from Andy Katz regarding the difficulties the selection committee will face this year in selecting/seeding the Big Dance:

Littlepage said the first ballot (for potential at-large locks) during the orientation meeting earlier this month came back with a lower total than normal. He said that still could be the case when the 10 members convene in March. There’s also a strong chance, though, that over the final two-plus weeks of the regular season that enough teams will get the wins necessary to push themselves into lock status.

“It’s a smaller number than we’ve had before, and that’s a reflection of the gridlock in the high-end conferences,'’ Littlepage said.

He also said seeding will be a difficult challenge, and he added that the 2-3-4 lines could be just as hard to seed as the 8-9.