Prediction: Kansas at Texas

posted by Hoopinion on 2/24/2006 - -

I think Kansas will be able to play the game at a faster pace than Texas typically plays.

I don’t think Kansas will be able to play the game as fast as they would prefer.

I think both teams will shoot a hair below 50 eFG% from the field.

I think both teams will get to the free throw line about 20 times.

I think if Robinson, Chalmers, and Jackson take the bulk of those free throw attempts, Kansas will at least match Texas’ production at the line.

I think Daniel Gibson will score 19 points on 17 shots.

I think Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush will combine for 12 three-point attempts, making 5.

I think both teams will get about 40% of their offensive rebound opportunities.

I think PJ Tucker gets, at minimum, 12 rebounds.

I think both teams will turn the ball over on just over 20% of their possessions.

I think point differential between Jeff Hawkins and AJ Abrams will be very close to the point differential between the two teams.

I think that PJ Tucker will present such a unique set of complications for Brandon Rush that Rush can play well and still be less effective than Tucker.

I think it’s unlikely that Kansas wins this game.

I think it’s less likely that the outcome of the game is decided with more than 30 seconds left on the clock.

I think the game will be close enough that a bad call could impact its outcome.

I think that Brandon Rush takes and misses Kansas’ final shot.

I think PJ Tucker gets the rebound, is fouled, and makes at least one free throw.

I think Kansas throws the ball away attempting a long inbounds pass.

I think Texas wins 71-68.

7 Responses to “Prediction: Kansas at Texas”

  1. Jeremy Chrysler Says:
    February 24th, 2006 at 1:22 pm

    Hoops, thanks for that exhaustive list of predictions. I’m going to get on board here and lay down my prediction.

    At the beginning of the week, I thought KU had a 30-35% chance of winning this game. At this point, though, I feel better about it.

    Texas is in a funk and unless they get really jazzed up for the game, I think KU wins. I think we’ll execute and fight and eventually, we’ll wear them down.

    I will go out on a limb and pick


    KU 73
    UT 69

  2. Quinn Ried Says:
    February 24th, 2006 at 1:42 pm

    The only team Kansas has played all year with a starting line up similar to Texas was Oklahoma. And we beat them by a point. Mario Chalmers hit the game winner. He’ll do it again.
    KU - 72
    UT - 71

  3. Harger Says:
    February 24th, 2006 at 1:43 pm

    If this were in Lawrence, KU would win by double digits. In Texas, however, I agree that this will be a close game (at the end).

    I’m going to go out to the very tip of the deadwood to predict:

    CJ Giles will be the difference maker in the middle for KU. Why? (1) Texas gets in early foul trouble thanks to dribble penetration by the guards; (2) Giles will be inspired Saturday, just like he was against Powe of Cal; (3) the hole in the UT zone is at the spot where he likes to put up a jumper, at the top of the key, and he’s been making those shots lately.

    Actually, KU’s second line of Jackson and Giles is the difference. This will be a very physical affair.

    Depth is big advantage for KU, whose legs are fresher at the end. I expect UT to control the first half and KU to dominate the second half. KU makes the right adjustments at half time, and that changes the entire game.

    Refs will call this one tight. Chalmers and Hawkins will both have foul problems, I predict, and one of the backup guards will give us valuable minutes - not scoring, but keeping up the pressure. It won’t be Case.

    This will be a lower scoring affair played at a fast (somewhat sloppy) pace. I predict KU by 6

    KU 67
    UT 61

  4. Chalmersfan Says:
    February 24th, 2006 at 5:23 pm

    My prediction:
    The game will be a tough one in the first half. KU will try to find the hot hand, and Texas will have foul trouble with one or more of their starters. Both teams will struggle against the others nationally ranked FG defense. While the defenses will dominate the first half, KU will do just enough in transition to grab a 6 point lead, say 33-27, at the break.
    The 2nd half will be a war of attrition. Wright, Chalmers and Rush will be showing off their full compliments of skills, while Paulino and Gibson will hit guarded 3’s and Texas will get numerous second chance points. KU fans will be screaming at the TV for their team to box out; the Texas fans in the arena will grow restless as the team with the most raw talent in the Big 12 repeatedly answers every challenge.
    With 4 minutes left, KU will find themselves with a 4-6 point lead. Led by Russell Robinson’s composure, KU will keep the lead and with 15 seconds left will have a dumb turnover to give Texas new life. Texas will miss a 3 instead of going for 2, Robinson will add a free throw, and the final score:

    KU 72
    UT 68

  5. Mike Says:
    February 24th, 2006 at 5:25 pm

    KU is much better on the road than at the house. They seem to be a lot more insink when they’re away expect a game or two, either way.

    UT 64
    KU 72

  6. NorCalHawk Says:
    February 25th, 2006 at 9:11 am

    Keys IMO:

    Russ Rob has to penetrate — I am confident he will have success — and finish – needs to step up here

    Transition game — don’t give them time to set up the zone.

    Rush needs to be Rush — pick up your 14 -16

    JW — expose the holes in the zone and distribute when Aldridge emerges.

    The network and I both hope this is a repeat of TJ Ford/Collison classic. KU wins again in a similar dramatic fashion.

    KU 80
    UT 77

  7. Jeff Says:
    February 25th, 2006 at 1:34 pm

    KU 83
    UT 67

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