Jayhawk Big Men Must Catch Up
KU’s current platoon of post men has performed well enough to beat above-average competition (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Cal) but imploded when faced with a seriously talented big man (Aldridge). Bill Self was quick to note that the team’s youth and lack of muscle inside was big factor in the Austin wax job.
I find myself wondering whether the ‘Hawks will fare any better against similarly talented frontcourts in the tournament. The transformation of this team has been fueled largely by a backcourt that acquired confidence, tenacity, and learned when to gamble on defense. The inside beef, on the other hand, has remained inconsistent throughout most of the season.
Julian Wright is coming into his own, but it will take more than ball fakes and finesse to advance. The play of KU’s more ‘traditional’ post trio (Kaun, Giles, Jackson) will determine how long the Jayhawks play in March.
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15 Responses to “Jayhawk Big Men Must Catch Up”
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March 1st, 2006 at 12:54 pm
I don’t think there are enough frontlines comparable to Texas’ for this to be a worry. Aldridge and Buckman and Tucker all gave Kansas trouble.
If Tyrus Thomas gets healthy, LSU could pose a similar problem, but other than that, I think only UConn fits the bill and if Kansas gets far enough in the tournament to play UConn, I’ll be pleased.
Though much improved from the beginning of the season, I still think Kansas’ offense will limit the team’s post-season run.
March 1st, 2006 at 3:17 pm
I agree with Hoop.
Just for fun, I used my expanded Basketball Shrink page I mentioned earlier to explore the issue. This time, instead of seeing which teams were most similar to Texas, I looked for those that were furthest from the median in several categories that I thought would be indicative of good inside play:
Category (weight given)
Offensive Rebounding % (3)
Off. Reb. % allowed (3)
eFG% allowed (2)
Defensive Efficiency (2)
eFG% (1)
Offensive Efficiency (1)
% of pts allowed from 3pt shots (1) [because good inside D leads to teams giving up and settling for 3’s]
Here’s who showed up:
1. Texas
2. Connecticut
3. LSU (nice call, Hoop)
4. Illinois
5. Pittsburgh
6. Oklahoma (maybe KU had a tougher test than you would think from OU’s general ranking)
I don’t know a lot about this year’s Illinois and Pitt squads, I guess I’ll have to look a little closer now.
March 1st, 2006 at 3:34 pm
The stats are revealing, David. Maybe I should have given OU more credit. But what if KU plays a team with even one stud in the middle, i.e. UNC’s Hansborough? I could see a matchup like that causing big problems.
March 1st, 2006 at 3:55 pm
I’m not overly concerned with teams with a single good post player (UNC-Hansbrough, Illinois-Augustine, Pittsburgh-Gray, Oklahoma-Gray) troubling Kansas. The frontcourt depth can minimize some of the difference in frontline talent.
Leon Powe is comparable to all those guys. He doesn’t have four other guys on the court that equal the talent surrounding him the players listed above have. It’s the totality of those offenses that could trouble Kansas.
I think my NCAA tournament preview will help weed out the teams/players that inflate their season averages by beating up on their weakest opponents. (cough) CarlKrauserMikeHall (cough)
Granted, it’s the preliminary work for that preview that lead me to believe that, despite my observational concerns about Kansas matching up with Texas’ frontline, the Jayhaks could adequately defend the Longhorns last Saturday.
March 1st, 2006 at 4:16 pm
You said what I wanted to say, only better. Except that I would say Bookout (OU) and Randle (Illinois) are no slouches. Sure, not at Tucker’s level, but that’s not much of an insult.
March 1st, 2006 at 4:21 pm
Oh, I guess there’s Buckman to account for also.
March 1st, 2006 at 4:56 pm
Randle and Bookout are both useful and important players, but they’re rarely more than the fourth offensive option for their teams. They do a good job of picking up scraps, but Augustine and Gray are the big men having plays run for them.
Texas has two frontline scoring threats, plus Buckman filling a role similar to that of Randle and Bookout (and I have my doubts that either Randle or Bookout could produce as well as Buckman did last year when pressed into being his team’s first offensive option).
March 1st, 2006 at 5:06 pm
I’ve had the theory all year that it’s the height rather than the ability of the opposing big man that troubles KU. Pepperdine starts a 7 footer, and they held KU to 63 points. Nevada starts 2 7 footers and held KU to 38% shooting in AFH. Aldridge… we saw what happened. Kentucky has 3 7 footers, but they only played 24 minutes. Arkansas has 2 7 footers and held KU to under a point per possession. A small sample size, but…
I think the only post players who give KU serious trouble are 7-footers. The reason why KU’s defense is so great is because it’s hard to get past our guards and because it’s hard to score over our forwards. I think that players like Gray, Jones, Bookout, 6′8-6′10 forwards aren’t a major threat to KU. The biggest threat IMO is teams with a 7 footer and good 3-point shooter, and luckily that only applies to Texas, UConn, and Pitt among notable tourney teams.
March 1st, 2006 at 5:16 pm
Who is 7′ on Texas? According to ESPN, LA is the tallest at 6-10.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=251
March 1st, 2006 at 5:18 pm
I swear he is taller than that… he has been referred to as a 7-footer by announcers. Nbadraft.net says he is 6′11″, which is close enough.
March 1st, 2006 at 5:22 pm
They also used to say that Wayne Simien was 6′10″. Those numbers are almost always wrong until they actually run through a camp with an NBA team.
March 1st, 2006 at 8:03 pm
Amid all the kansas hype let us talk some facts. There are 4 states in which MVC and Big 12 teams co exist. There are 5 teams from each conference in these states. Let us look at what one RPI rating service has as the RPI ratings for these teams (other RPI sites might differ slightly. State of Kansas: Wichita State 21, Kansas 52, Kansas State 117; State of Nebraska: Creighton 32, Nebraska 103; State of Iowa: Northern Iowa 26, Iowa State 105, Drake 170; State of Missouri: Missouri State 18, Missouri 150. Note Kansas, the best Big 12 team in these five states has an RPI rating 20 spots below the MVC’s 4th best team in these states. Let the numbers speak for themselves. Serious question: Does Kansas deserve an at large bid to the Big Dance or should they receive preferential treatment because of their past sucsess and “big name” and be included as at large team with aRPI over 50? I think that they should be trated like any other team which would mean they would not likely get an invite to the Big Dance.
March 1st, 2006 at 8:32 pm
First, I don’t know where you got your numbers, but I they seem to be way off. Let’s compare POmeroy’s RPI listings to yours:
Team yourRPI/pomRPI
Wich St 21/25
Kansas 52/45
Kansas St 117/102
Creighton 32/31
Nebraska 103/95
N Iowa 26/30
Iowa St 105/85
Drake 170/164
Missori St 18/20
Missouri 150/136
Not enough to change anything, I guess.
Second, the RPI is not a very good rating system, so I really don’t care what any of these teams’ RPI is, unless it is so bad that the committee will not consider them.
Third, as for your state-by-state comparison, kind of convenient that the 4 highest rated (by the RPI) MVC teams are in those states, and 4 of the bottom half of the Big 12 are included. Real fair.
Fourth, having seen multiple Kansas and Wichita State games, I’m confident that Kansas is as good as Wichita State. I THINK they are better, but I’m not that SURE that they are.
Fifth, I read recently that almost all major conference teams with 20 wins and an RPI better than 50 have made the tourney. Don’t know if this is true or not.
March 1st, 2006 at 8:46 pm
Just checked on that last point about the sub-50 RPI plus 20+ wins for major conference teams. It is true for at least 1999-2005.
March 1st, 2006 at 9:06 pm
Anybody know where I can find team stats broken down into home and away?