Ken Pomeroy on the Oakland Bracket.

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 3/14/2006 - -
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Friend of Phog Blog Ken Pomeroy breaks down the Bracket today, using his efficiency numbers, and I think Jayhawks will be pleased:

Seed Team         Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis  Finals Champion
  4  Kansas        78.93%  54.37%   38.45%  25.92% 14.72%   9.01%
  2  UCLA          95.39%  70.86%   53.75%  29.49% 14.80%   8.09%
  5  Pitt          81.35%  34.47%   19.87%  10.81%  4.64%   2.19%
  1  Memphis       86.40%  52.89%   22.30%  11.60%  4.70%   2.10%
  8  Arkansas      72.27%  36.08%   13.45%   6.32%  2.26%   0.90%
 11  San Diego St. 55.81%  34.29%   12.35%   4.17%  1.25%   0.42%
  7  Marquette     62.35%  19.94%   11.30%   3.88%  1.18%   0.40%
  6  Indiana       44.19%  24.66%    7.68%   2.23%  0.57%   0.16%
  3  Gonzaga       56.26%  24.58%    7.06%   1.88%  0.44%   0.11%
 13  Bradley       21.07%   8.23%    3.31%   1.25%  0.34%   0.10%
 10  Alabama       37.65%   8.61%    3.81%   0.93%  0.20%   0.05%
 14  Xavier        43.74%  16.47%    3.97%   0.88%  0.17%   0.04%
  9  Bucknell      27.73%   8.15%    1.58%   0.42%  0.08%   0.02%
 12  Kent State    18.65%   2.93%    0.73%   0.17%  0.03%   0.00%
 16  Oral Roberts  13.60%   2.88%    0.32%   0.05%  0.01%   0.00%
 15  Belmont        4.61%   0.58%    0.08%   0.00%  0.00%   0.00%

The most interesting thing about these numbers to me is that we’re not the most likely Final Four team in this bracket, but that we are the most likely Champion. That says a lot about the difficultly of our draw.

However, the good thing about our draw is that - to wax Physics 102 - it’s big on amplitude, but not on frequency. By this I mean that our draw is steadily difficult, that it doesn’t contain a single shrill note of window cracking difficulty. According to Ken, we should be favored all the way to the Final Four. And that’s not such a bad thing.

Still plenty of time to throw down your picks at the Phog Blog Pickem

One Response to “Ken Pomeroy on the Oakland Bracket.”

  1. Hoopinion Says:
    March 14th, 2006 at 12:46 pm

    The top half of the bracket is a complete crapshoot prediction-wise. I seriously doubt any team from there can win the championship, as they’ll likely have to play 5 very good teams.

    Any of KU, Pitt, or Arkansas would have a decent-to-good chance of advancing out of the bottom half of the Oakland bracket, where it’s UCLA and a bunch of teams that don’t play good defense.

    Bradley’s under-seeded as well (I count 17 teams rated below Bradley at kenpom.com playing a team seeded lower than 4), their raw deal being compounded by drawing a bad matchup in Kansas.

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