Preview: Kansas vs. Bradley
Bradley got the rawest of the several raw deals teams in the top half of the Oakland received from the Selection Committee. In drawing Kansas as their first round opponent, Bradley has a far slimmer chance of pulling an upset than inferior teams (San Diego State, Montana, Wisconsin-Mailwaukee, Pacific) with equivalent or higher seeds.
From Kansas’ perspective, Bradley is a far better team than they would hope to meet in a 13-seed, but still, Kansas hasthe solace of being a better team than Bradley and should win the game.
Bradley relies heavily on two scorers (Marcus Sommerville (6-7, 225) and Patrick O’Bryant (7-0, 260)) neither of whom shoot very well from the floor or get to the free throw line often. That both Sommerville and O’Bryant are far more likely to shoot than pass further complicates matters. Kansas has generally done a fine job of suppressing the field goal percentages of their opponents’ primary offensive options. Guards Tony Bennett (6-0, 175) and Daniel Ruffin (5-10, 165) are more likely to be open than Sommerville or O’Bryant but relatively unlikely to have the ball in their hands. That’s not even taking into account the possessions Bradley will lose to a Kansas steal. It’s a nice comfort to have the bigger, quicker guards in a matchup.
Bradley’s greatest liability on offense may be defensive specialist JJ Tauai (6-3, 215). In 375 minutes this season Tauai attempted just 35 shots and 11 free throws. In the 5 games he played against the Missouri Valley’s NCAA tournament teams, he attempted only 7 shots and no free throws in 86 minutes. Tauai passes the ball much better than Marcus Dove, but he doesn’t provide the offensive rebounding that the taller Dove gives Oklahoma State. It will be interesting to see the extent to which the 6-3 Tauai can trouble Brandon Rush.
Bradley doesn’t shoot many threes, less than 30% of their field goal attempts on the year, and they make less than a third of those they take. Kansas still leads the nation in two-point field goal percentage defense.
Forwards Zach Andrews (6-8, 225) and Lawrence Wright (6-4, 198) give Patrick O’Bryant some help on the offensive glass, but, as a team, Bradley’s offensive rebounding falls off against better competition. Southern Illinois, the Valley’s most athletic team, dominated Bradley on the glass in their last two meetings. Should O’Bryant get into foul trouble, the only other big men on the Bradley roster, Brandyn Heemskerk (7-1, 260) and Sam Singh (6-9, 260), have played a combined 124 minutes this year.
Bradley’s defensive numbers may be deceivingly strong. There wasn’t a lot of offensive talent in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. Wichita State and Missouri State were the only top-50 offenses in the league and Northern Iowa, ranked 71st, was the only other Valley team in the top-90 nationally. As a point of reference, Kansas State would have been an upper division offensive team in the MVC.
The numbers show that Bradley limits their opponents’ field goal shooting (though not to the extent that Kansas does), forces a decent amount of turnovers, and (usually) controls the defensive glass. Sommerville, in particular, is a fine defensive rebounder. I assume his paltry offensive rebounding numbers are due to the volume and length of his shot attempts.
The numbers also show that Bradley’s strong defensive performances have come in the slowest-paced games they’ve played. It’s no secret that Kansas is far more effective offensively in high-possession games (unless Oklahoma State is involved). Bradley allowed 1.03 points per possession in at-risk games (road, neutral, home games against NCAA tournament teams) with at least 70 possessions per team. Kansas averages just under 70 possessions per game.
In all likelihood Bradley can’t allow 1.03 points per Kansas possession. Only three teams (Nevada, St. Joseph’s, and Texas) and Thomas Gardner have scored more than 1.03 points per possession in a game against Kansas this year. Bradley averages just 1.03 points per possession on the season. Looking at either at-risk games or just games against NCAA tournament teams, Bradley’s offense shrinks to 0.97 points per possession. There are, as I said, some good defensive teams in the Valley. None of them are as good as Kansas.
Prediction: Kansas 71 Bradley 62
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18 Responses to “Preview: Kansas vs. Bradley”
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March 15th, 2006 at 2:26 pm
I think it’s important to note that even though Bradley’s best defensive games have come when the tempo is slower, they seem to be a team that wants to push the pace. They are 96th in raw tempo and 36th in adjusted tempo at Pomeroy’s site.
So while they may be good at a slow-it-down-and-muck-it-up type of game, they may not try to do that.
March 15th, 2006 at 2:32 pm
I don’t have an answer regarding the cause-and-effect relationship between pace of play and Bradler’s defensive performances. They either a) figured out a way to play to slower paced MVC game effectively, or b) they let their opponents dictate pace.
I think Kansas can win either way, but it’ll be easier if ‘b’ is true.
March 15th, 2006 at 2:42 pm
I think Bradley will struggle mightily to execute on offense. And while our bigs may not be complete players individually, we still offer more post problems - especially defensively - than Bradley has faced this year.
I also think that they have enough athleticism that they won’t want to muck it up like a less athletically gifted team (see UTEP) would do.
March 15th, 2006 at 2:42 pm
Poor Texas…won’t somebody please pick them to go to the Final Four? Anyone? Dickie V? Gottlieb?
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney06/news/story?id=2369439
March 15th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
How about that! 5/7 ESPN announcers agree - KU will be in the Final Four.
The insanity of this is that these guys nearly unanimously declare Roy Willams Coach of the Year.
Has the youngest team in the country ever been the best defensive team in the country?
If the answer to that is no, then Bill Self should get Coach of the Year.
March 15th, 2006 at 3:02 pm
I ran the log5 calculation, it says Bradley has a 21.07% chance of winning this game. By comparison, 13 seeds all-time have a 19% winning% in the first round. Bradley is very good for a 13 seed.
However, I don’t think they have the tools to do it. Foxsports put together a highlight clip of every team in the tournament, and from the 60 seconds or so of Bradley footage it would seem that A. O’Bryant has no range and B. Sommerville spends too much time in the midrange rather than driving to the basket or posting up.
Kansas 76
Bradley 64
March 15th, 2006 at 3:04 pm
Sommerville gives the ball away a lot as well.
Neglected to give my projection:
KU 74
Bradley 60
March 15th, 2006 at 3:18 pm
Tempo Pred. 73.81
Kansas [4] (B12)
OE Pred.
98.94
Score 73
Bradley [13] (MVC) OE Pred.
86.24
Score 64
March 15th, 2006 at 3:28 pm
I’m sticking with it. KU by 15+, ignited by they’re hatred for the Bucknell conversation and inspired beyond the magnitude of the Big XII Championship. While computers are good, they do not project well for teams that are getting better. Hope we can keep our intensity strong into Sunday.
March 15th, 2006 at 3:42 pm
Let’s see, Bradley scored 54 vs. Creighton, 60 vs. Wichita St and 46 vs. Southern Ill.
I will take the average of those 3 games and say
KU-74
BU-53
March 15th, 2006 at 3:56 pm
Great break down of the game. I’ve been a little worried this week because of our youth, inexperience, struggle in the half-court offense (before Texas,) and from just being generally shell-shocked from the way last season eneded. Then I watch this and everything feel right in the world. JuJu!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjQAXWINnwM&search=julian%20wright%20dunk
March 15th, 2006 at 4:07 pm
Can Bradley beat us?
No.
Can we lose to Bradley, the fifth place team in the Missouri Valley?
Yes. If our guys are overwhelmed by the situation the way they were in Austin and freeze up.
Do I expect that?
Not beyond the first 10 minutes if at all.
Unlike last year, these Jayhawks will force the action with their D. Their big men can’t score if their guards can’t (a) get the ball into the front court, and (b) get it into them in scoring position. There won’t be a lot of the latter going on.
March 15th, 2006 at 9:54 pm
I think Peter’s right!
KU 72
Bradley 53
They don’t score against their MVC foes. They won’t score on KU either. We can stop most teams that are limited in offensive options. We’ve got a lot of fouls to give in the paint, and our depth is our seldom-mentioned strength! KU’s guards are both quick and big. KU has a lethal combination for Bradley, who relies too heavily on two players.
March 16th, 2006 at 10:31 am
A note about ChevyHawk’s comments:
A filled out an entire bracket according to the score predictions using this method. I just created a spreadsheet containing the calculations and let it do the work. This method of prediction has KU making to Final Four and losing to Texas 68-67 in the semi. It has Texas winning the championship over UCONN 73-72.
However if Texas is eliminated, it favors KU to win it all, beating both Duke and UCONN in by the slightest of margins.
March 24th, 2006 at 4:19 pm
Well, everyone seems to have been way off… If the teams didn’t have school names on their uniforms, after reading this blog you would have thought Kansas was wearing red. Just about everything that was posted happened in reverse. Maybe next year. Interestingly, Bradley did the same to Pitt. It was too bad that Bradley had to run up against the best team (Memphis) as I think they could have beated just about anyone else except UConn.
March 24th, 2006 at 4:33 pm
I’m not taking anything away from Bradley, but going from 5th place in the Missouri Valley to being able to “beated” anyone besides UConn.
Had Bradley not had the best three point shooting day of the entire season last Friday, they wouldn’t have beaten the youngest team in the tournament, let alone anyone but UConn.
March 25th, 2006 at 6:02 pm
What I don’t get is some of the reactions after the game… the log5 calculation had said that Bradley had a 21% chance of winning. And then when it happens it means that they were the better team all along? I’ve heard that far too many times, from the print media, the radio, and fellow KU fans.
March 26th, 2006 at 2:16 pm
CF, I believe the odds that we lost in the first round were slightly better than our odds of getting to the Final Four.
I haven’t lost a ton of sleep over the loss, though I have watched significantly less basketball as a result.
Had we taken care of business earlier in the year, we probably would have gotten a better draw in the first round, but I have still greatly enjoyed watching this year’s team bloom and grow, to borrow a phrase from Eidelveiss (hey it’s Spring!).
Next year we’ll come out hungry and wise, and that’s a dangerous combination.