It’s clear that we won’t know who is starting at quarterback for the Jayhawks much before the offense takes the field for the first time Saturday night. The time for excuses and procrastination has ceased. It’s time to prognosticate.

Nebraska 24 Kansas 13

Here’s what some others are predicting…

Corn Nation: Nebraska 40 Kansas 13

College Football News: Nebraska 38 Kansas 17

Bruce Feldman, ESPN Insider: Nebraska 35 Kansas 20

The Jayhawks are a horrible team on the road. Nebraska’s offense, the most prolific in the Big 12, matches up very well against one of the league’s worst defenses. Key stat: The Huskers are tops in the conference in turnover margin. Kansas is last. That’s a bad sign for a team with a very inexperienced QB playing on the road. Thing that has me sold: The opportunistic Huskers.

The staff of The Kansas City Star:
Blair Kerkhoff, Nebraska 31-10
Jason King, Nebraska 31-17
Derek Samson, Nebraska 40-15
Mike DeArmond, Nebraska 35-7
Howard Richman, Nebraska 26-9

Tim Griffin, San Antonio Express-News: Nebraska 49 Kansas 14

I don’t think there’s a whole lot the numbers can tell us about the Kansas-Nebraska matchup that we don’t already know, but I’ll offer them anyway.

Nebraska has yet to play a game they should win but could lose. That they refused to challenge their one worthy opponent further complicates attempts to gauge their true ability. The difference between USC’s 18 point win over Nebraska and their 36 point win at Arkansas came down to more than Nebraska’s ability to refrain from turning the ball over at every opportunity. Nebraska, looking for all the world like a team whose coach wanted nothing more than not to lose too badly, severely limited the number of plays either team ran. Against Arkansas and Arizona, USC ran 12 and 13 more plays, respectively, than they did against Nebraska. Against USC, Nebraska ran 16 fewer plays than they did against Troy and 31 fewer plays than they did against Lousiana Tech.

Furthermore, uncertainty over the identity of Kansas’s starting quarterback means that we don’t know whether Nebraska’s run defense or their pass defense will be under more pressure on Saturday night.

For a good preview of the game from a Nebraska perspective, check out Double Extra Point.

(more…)

            It is now time to get down to business.  Conference play.  Where REAL championships-not this bogus BCS crap-are won.  With the exception, of course, of those conferences that don’t play a round robin (e.g. the Big 11) or have a championship game (e.g., the Big 11).  Or that choose their championship game contestants from divisions where the teams have different schedules of varying strength (e.g., the ACC, SEC, and Big 12).
            In other words, there’s the PAC 10. 
            But even in the other conferences, at least the champions are decided on the field of play, rather than in some bozos’ heads or by some computer program that artificially eliminates the teams in the toughest conferences, with the most difficult schedules, by valuing, say,  a Texas win over Baylor in Austin on a Freeman Johns, III type screw job more highly than an LSU double OT loss to Florida in Gainesville as the result of a PAC-10 officiating type rip-off.
            So let the REAL games begin.
            Week 5’s games are all conference affairs with the exception of the one involving the team with its own TV network (i.e., the Notredame Broadcasting Company):
           
1.  KU +21 @ Nebraska
 
            Anything is possible, of course-especially if KU continues what is probably a record-setting turnover pace-but I find it hard to believe that the fortunes of these two teams has changed by 46 points since last November.  Yes, KU has less experience, but the conventional wisdom is that the Hawks are more athletic.  Yes, NU has more experience, but their talent level has not improved by leaps and bounds.  They played USC no tougher than Arizona, and AU would not beat KU by 21 anywhere, anytime.
            What this spread comes down to is:  (a) the Nebraska mystique, which some are buying into well in advance of any actual accomplishments on the field (not that KU hasn’t benefited from the same effect in basketball from time to time); (b) the home field advantage; and (c) NU’s trouncing of a respectable Troy team last Saturday.
            The first and third factors are of little consequence.  KU is not going to buy into the mystique, having taken this team apart by 25 points last season.  NU is not likely to repeat its nearly flawless effort vs. Troy a second consecutive week.
            The fly in the ointment, though, could be the home field.  The Hawks play notoriously poorly on the road-at least in terms of W’s and L’s.  And there is no question that a more experienced group of Jayhawks was intimidated by a comparable bigger than life atmosphere in Austin last year.  So there is a chance that KU will give away so many points on a Big Red platter that the Huskers could cover this spread.
            More likely, the Huskers will find a way to win-or the Hawks will find a way to lose-but by somewhat less than 21.

 
            KU

 
2.  k-state +2.5 @ Baylor
 
     k-state at last takes to the road.  Baylor is not going to beat anyone by a margin much greater than 3.5.  But they will eke out a 4-6 point win here, and the students can carry the goal posts down the road to the Elite Café, where the Elite Meet to Eat.  (Including, legend has it, some guy named Elvis.)

 
            BAYLOR

 
3.  Texas Tech +1.5 @ Texas A&M: 
 
            Home team or halfway decent team.
            Although Tech considers A&M to be one of its two major rivals, the feeling isn’t mutual.

 
            TECH

 
4.  Colorado +14 @ Mizzou
 
            CU will not be great this year.  But they are playing people tough.  Well, if you don’t count losing to the team that lost to Chadron St.  Mizzou appears to have its most competent team of the Pinkel era (which is called damning with faint praise), but the Tigers would be hard pressed to play Georgia on the road any better than CU did last Saturday.

 
            COLORADO

 
5.  Northwestern +18 @ Penn St
  
            Penn St has shown it can play a little D.  Northwestern is just two games removed from losing by 17 at home to something called New Hampshire.  Easy call, right? 
            Not exactly.  Covering an 18 point spread requires Penn St to score 18. 
            But New Hampshire scored 34. . .

 
            PENN ST

 
6.  Ohio St -7 @ Iowa
 
            Could be the year’s first major upset.  I keep trying to pick it, but my fingers won’t type the letters.

 
            OHIO ST

 
7.  Michigan -10 @ Minnesota
 
            Masonota will jump out to a 14 point lead, be up by three with four minutes remaining-and lose by 11.

 
            MICHIGAN

 
8.  Houston +15.5 @ Miami
  
            Houston can score points.  Miami can allow them.

 
            HOUSTON

 
9.  Purdue +14 @ Notre Dame
 
            Notre Dame’s friends must all drive Porsches:  After stealing a W in East Lansing last Saturday, they must make a-mends.

 
            NOTRE DAME

 
10.  Alabama +13 @ Florida
 
            Florida would be favored by 3 if Vegas did not expect Bama to miss three field goals and an extra point.

 
            FLORIDA

 
11.  Georgia -17.5 @ Ole Miss
 
            Was Georgia looking ahead to this game last week when it eked out a one point victory over Colorado?  Of course not.  That would be like looking ahead to Curly while playing Moe.

 
            GEORGIA

 
12.  USC -17 @ Washington St
 
            USC suddenly seems like something less than a juggernaut, with back to back wins of 18 and 17 points over Nebraska and Arizona.  The question is:  Can Wazzou score enough to stay within 17? 

 
            WASHINGTON ST

 
           
13.  Cal -9 @ Oregon St
 
            Call Cal “Butter” because the Bears are on corn on the cob and covered with salt.

 
            CAL

 
14.  Washington +4 @ Arizona
 
            Bob Stoops’ Bro gets an ordinary team at home.

 
            ARIZONA

 
15.  Oregon -1.5 @ Arizona St
 
            Oregon can’t take their PAC 10 officials with them on the road.
            Wait a minute.  Of course they can.
            Won’t matter.  ASU rebounds in the desert from the spanking they received last week in the Bay area.

 
            ASU

 
            Ding dong, the witch is dead.  Which old witch?  The Big Red Witch.  Ding dong, the Big Red witch is dead.

 
–Mark

______________________________________________________________________

Remember:  These picks are for entertainment purposes only. You get what you pay for.  There are no refunds.
 
 
 
 

Rushing Offense/Defense

South Florida’s ground game (read: QB Matt Grothe and WRs Ean Randolph and Amarri Jackson) had their best performance of the season (113 yards, 3.9 ypc, 1 TD) against the best defense they’ve faced. The yards and yards-per-carry surrendered were the highest of the season by the KU defense.

The parenthetical above, however, might augur well for the Jayhawk run defense in future games. When handing the ball off to a running back, South Florida gained just 16 yards on eight carries. With their top two running backs unavailable through injury and suspension and their remaining backs unable to contribute, South Florida, to their credit, created a viable running game. QB Grothe (when not being sacked) ran 15 times for 78 yards. WRs Randolph and Jackson combined to run around the end 3 times for 31 yards.
Future Kansas opponents may explore similarly unconventional approaches to the running game if they too find that lining up and running the ball at Kansas proves difficult.

The Jayhawks obviously missed Kerry Meier’s presence when running the football. Jon Cornish had another fine performance running the ball but nobody was able to replace the 48+ yards per game Meier contributed in his three starts. (Meier’s contribution in the first three games is actually greater than that, hence the plus sign. He gained 48 yards per game on the ground after yards lost on sacks are included thanks to the NCAA’s counterintutive approach to maintaining official rushing stats.) Adam Barmann ran three times for four yards (losing one fumble) while Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp each carried the ball twice, gaining seven and six yards respectively.

Passing Offense/Defense

In his first two starts, South Florida QB Matt Grothe completed 61.7% of his passes for 507 yards (8.45 ypa) with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Against Kansas Grothe completed half of his passes for 196 yards (5.8 ypa) with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

On September 9th, Kansas allowed 377 passing to Louisiana-Monroe. Over the last two weeks, Kansas has allowed Toledo and South Florida to throw for a combined 332 yards on 81 attempts. I shall now rank the reasons for this vast, sudden improvement of the pass defense in order of importance.

• Aqib Talib
• Lousiana-Monroe caught the Kansas coaching staff by surprise. The young Jayhawk defenders were ill-prepared for the WarHawk attack. (Jerome Kemp, in the LJW on Sept. 10th: “…we were kind of caught off guard. Looking at the tape of Alcorn, they came out, basically, with an almost totally different offense.“
• Increased playing time for true freshman CB Anthony Webb, who made his first start against South Florida.

When the Jayhawks had the ball, they were in the capable hands of Adam Barmann. Yes, I was most pleasantly surprised, too. Barmann, against a fine, fast defense, completed over 70 percent of his passes for 273 yards with no interceptions. Barmann’s numbers are all the more impressive when one takes into account the thoroughness with which South Florida eliminated Jon Cornish from the passing game.

Just over 20 percent of Kerry Meier’s passing yards came on throws to Cornish. I think it’s reasonable to give Cornish most of the credit for those gains. South Florida held Cornish to 14 yards on six receptions. Only 5 percent of Barmann’s passing yards were attributable to screens, shovels, or dump-offs to Kansas’s premier offensive threat.

It’s hard to determine on television (especially when the game is broadcast by Fox Sports Net with upwards of three camera angles available) how much credit should go to Barmann and how much should go to the Jayhawk receivers for getting open. Either way, after two years of debating whether the quarterbacks or receivers were more to blame for Kansas’s passing woes, I welcome this new conundrum into the discussion.

Special Teams

I anticipated excitement one way or the other in the punting game but none developed. South Florida failed to take advantage of the two punts (one a quick-kick by QB Grothe) they downed deep in Kansas territory. Dangerous punt returners Ean Randolph and Brian Murph combined for 11 return yards on three attempts.

Jim Leavitt prevented any placekicking gaffes on South Florida’s part by eschewing an early opportunity at a chip shot.

Scott Webb made both his field goals (37, 41) and added a touchback on the opening kickoff.

Kansas’s kick coverage went 1 for 2. After Webb’s first field goal, Taurus Jackson returned a kick 39 yards to set up South Florida’s touchdown drive. After Webb’s second field goal put the Jayhawks up 13-7, good coverage a deep, directional kick held Ean Randolph to a 13 yard return.

     Saturday demonstrated again why college football is the greatest game in the world.  Nothing else matches the emotion and the excitement that spring from college pigskin games even when  one or both teams are in contention for absolutely nothing.
 
    I had dubbed this week as Post Partum Saturday.  Not a great game on the agenda.  And still, somehow, games with great intensity and thrills broke out on channel after channel. 
 
    It started with Louisville at k-state.  A 14.5 point favorite, UL had methodically taken a 24-0 lead.  Both the game and the point spread victory were safe, right?

 
            Wrong.  k-state scores a quick TD on a 69 yard run to pull within 18 early in the fourth quarter.  Then, with less than two minutes remaining, they are at Louisville’s 30, threatening to score again-not because another score will win the game.   Noooooooo.  But purely out of spite.  For no apparent reason other than to cost me a game against the spread.  The tension, as they say, was palpable. 

 
     Thankfully, Louisville thwarted the threat.  But there were some uneasy moments as a UL defender’s late hit on a purple receiver late on a wildly overthrown fourth down pass appeared to not only allow k-state to maintain possession with 1:37 remaining, but to move the ball inside the 20.  Could the pick that had looked so safe moments earlier, be slipping from my grasp?

 
     Fortunately, the Big East officiating crew made the correct call and ruled that, because the play was over when the contact was made, Louisville would be penalized 15 yards but take over on downs.  Game, set, match, point spread!

 
     And that was just the beginning of the day’s thrills and chills and even spills.

 
     There was Michigan, which had its 14 point spread covered at 27-10 until Wisconsin decided to screw the betting public by kicking a meaningless FG to pull within 14 points at 2:53.  And don’t give me this “they needed three scores, might as well get the FG while you can” crap.  Like they were going to recover an onside kick, get a TD, recover a second onside kick, and get another TD, all in less than three minutes to take the game into OT.  And without a PAC-10 officiating crew within a thousand miles. . .

 
     And UT/ISU.  The Cyclones were competitive at 23-14 with time running out in the second quarter until they roughed the passer on what would have been a 3 and out.  UT keeps the ball, scores easily for a 30-14 lead, and is well on its way to covering the 24.5 spread.  At 37-14 midway through the third, it looked as if it were only a matter of time until that 24.5 points was like Lubbock, Texas to Mac Davis: i.e., in the rear view mirror.  Then the weather came.  The game was put on hold.  The stands were cleared.  The players went to the locker room.  When they returned, the intensity of the teams had disappeared with the severe storm warnings.  Final:  37-14.  ISU covers.

 
     And Alabama misses an extra point in the second OT.  Instead of going to a third overtime with a chance to win the game, they lose by 1 to Arkie–but they cover the 1.5 spread. 

 
     Not to mention Iowa having a 21 point spread covered at 24-0 until losing their cover by allowing a meaningless TD in the fourth quarter to Illinois for a 24-7 final.

 
     Meanwhile, Ohio St is getting played off its feet by the heretofore hapless Nittany Lions of Joe Paterno, leading by a scant 7-3 margin after 3 quarters in a game in which the Buckeyes are 16.5 point favorites.  Two INT returns for TDs in the fourth quarter, including one at 1:07, rally the Buckeyes to a 28-6 victory and point spread cover.
Of course, everyone reading this is familiar with KU’s late FG and last second escape from being on the Road to Perdition in covering a 5.5 point spread by .5.

 
     And what about the Bad Luck of the Irish? They miss an extra point to avoid covering a 3.5 point spread in an otherwise routine 3 point victory over Michigan St.

 
     There was even some wildness not related to the point spread-witness NC St’s last gasp desperation pass completion in the end zone to end BC’s delusions of BCS grandeur.

 
     All in all, I was more than happy to go 8-6 on the week.

 
     Repeat after me:  40-15.  40-15. 40-15. . .

 
     Is there a sweeter sound?

 
–Mark
 

It’s not the best feeling in the world to wake up and discover that you’re working the same side of the street as octogenarian Lawrence Journal-World sports columnist Bill Mayer.

Hoopinion, on PhogBlog, 9/16/06: “…seven days from today, Kansas plays a must-win game.”

Headline in the LJW today:

Mayer: Kansas must win Saturday

All credit due, Mayer does, in his column, beat me to the punch in comparing the Oklahoma/Oregon refereeing debacle to the blown call which determined the winner of the 1940 Dartmouth/Cornell game.

I was saving that for a bye week.

Injury News

Greg Auman of the St. Petersburg Times reports that South Florida will be without their starting left guard, sophomore Jake Griffin, but left tackle Thed Watson will return to the lineup after missing the last two games.

As to the possible impact on Saturday’s game:

“Sophomore Ryan Schmidt took over at guard Saturday against Central Florida after Griffin was injured. Left tackle Thed Watson, who has missed two games with an ankle injury, is expected to make a healthy return this week, so USF could slide Matt Huners, who started at tackle Saturday, back to the opening at guard.”

Human Interest Story

Auman also describes how leading receiver and punt returner Ean Randolph came to join the South Florida program. Randolph began his college football career playing for a club team at NAIA school Webber International four years ago.

Statistical Note

Gregg Becnel of the Tampa Tribune reports that South Florida has outscored opponents 65-7 in the second halves of their three games. The lone touchdown they surrendered was on a blocked punt against Central Florida last week.

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     Last week was dubbed Separation Saturday by ESPN.  This week, by comparison, is Post Partum Depression Saturday.  Not a five star game to be found.  Doesn’t mean there won’t be some entertaining contests to behold, but keep your remote handy to find them. 
            The Games of Week 4***:
1.  South Florida +5.5 @ KU
 
            The Big M has established three things in his tenure at KU:  His teams suck on the road.  His teams are a bear (more Chicago than Baylor) at home.  And his teams are resilient.  They routinely come back from the most bitter circumstances possible with more determination than Mangino, Tom Amstutz, and Ralph Friedgen competing for the last piece of pizza at a coaches’ clinic.  Even with the play-calling of Nick Quartaro, the Hawks cover with ease.
            KU
2.  Louisville -14.5 @ k-state
 
            This game started the week at 10 points.  Wish I had gotten my money in early.  Shouldn’t make any difference, though.  This is close to being a name the score game for Louisville-even on the road.  They are that good. And, yes, k-state is that bad.
            Louisville
3.  Iowa St +24.5 @ Texas
 
            It’s hard to imagine Iowa St being able to hang with Texas for 60 minutes in Austin.  They do have enough firepower, however, to force UT to score more points than a freshman QB will likely be able to engineer to cover a 3 TD plus FG plus ½ point spread.
            Iowa St
4.  Colorado +26.5 @ Georgia
 
            Until the Buffs actually cover a spread, might as well keep going with the flow.  It’s been easy money so far.
            Georgia
5.  Army +11 @ Baylor
 
            Baylor fools me every week.  When I think they are good enough to cover (e.g., TCU), they fall just short.  When I think they won’t cover, they play lights out-they still lose, but cover (e.g., Washington St).  And this is not a new phenomenon.  It happened last year, and the year before that.  The safe bet is probably to pick them to fail to cover every week.  But what fun would that be?
            The Bears do look like an improving team.  Not that there was another direction available.  Still, Army looked well-drilled against A&M, and fell short by a mere couple of yards or couple of seconds.  I will be surprised if Baylor takes them out by double digits.
            Army
6.  Okie St -1 @ Houston
 
            Okie St’s first game of the season away from home-against an opponent that acquitted itself well against a vastly superior team in the Fort Worth Bowl last December.  Against a comparable team, the home field makes the difference.
            Houston
7.  Troy +22.5 @ Nebraska
 
            Nebraska played the Men of Troy tough last week.  Can they do the same against the Men of Troy this week?  Will Callahan unleash their firepower?  Can they separate themselves from the team that did everything but take out Florida St?  NU should win, but Troy is not fazed by playing big name teams in hostile arenas. 
            Troy
8.  Wisconsin +14 @ Michigan
 
            Michigan is not as good as they looked last Saturday vs. Notre Dame. But then, they couldn’t be. If they were, you could hand them the mythical national championship trophy right now.  The big question is how big will their letdown be one week after?  My guess is that that the home crowd invigorates them and keeps the adrenaline flowing long enough to cover this spread.
            Michigan
9.  Iowa -21 @ Illinois
 
            There is an old saying:  If something is too good to be true, it is.
            There is a competing saying:  Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
            This is a battle of the sayings. 
            I will go with the gift horse.
            Iowa
10.  Penn St +16.5 @ Ohio St
 
            There is an old saying:  If something is too good to be true, it is.
            There is a competing saying:  Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
            This is a battle of the sayings. 
            I will go with the gift horse.
            Ohio St
11.  Notre Dame -3.5 @ Michigan St
 
            Notre Dame is not as bad as they looked last week against Michigan.  But then, they couldn’t be-unless, of course, they had lost to Toledo.  If Mangino were their coach, they would win this one handily, because of their resiliency.  Or would they lose handily because they are on the road? 
            Notre Dame
12.  Alabama +1.5 @ Arkansas
 
            With a shutout, all the Crimson Tide needs to cover is a safety.

After further review, they could even allow a field goal and cover with a safety. How can you not take that?

            Alabama
13.  UTEP -9.5 @ New Mexico
 
            Mizzou allowed New Mexico a TD with 25 seconds remaining in the game last Saturday, turning a 17 point cover into a 10 point loss against the spread.  Mike Price has UTEP playing  as well as Mizzou and has had two weeks to prepare for the Miners’ conference opener. 
            UTEP 
14.  UCLA -3.5 @ Washington
 
            How bad is Washington?  Let me count the ways.  At least 3.5 of them. 
            UCLA
15.  Arizona St +7.5 @ Cal
 
            It’s that last little ½ that Vegas uses to crush your dreams.  Even though 7.5 doesn’t look like much more than 7, it is virtually the same as 10 or 13.  It is a two score margin.  I will trust the Bears to pull out that second score at home.
            Cal
            If Tampa is in South Florida, where the hell is Miami?  And why are they Bulls instead of some sort of seafood?
            Surf or Turf, the Hawks feast Saturday night in Lawrence.
–Mark
 —————————————————————————————————————————

 ***These picks are for entertainment purposes only.  You get what you pay for.  There are no refunds.
 

     Last week was dubbed Separation Saturday by ESPN.  This week, by comparison, is Post Partum Depression Saturday.  Not a five star game to be found.  Doesn’t mean there won’t be some entertaining contests to behold, but keep your remote handy to find them. 
            The Games of Week 4***:
1.  South Florida +5.5 @ KU
 
            The Big M has established three things in his tenure at KU:  His teams suck on the road.  His teams are a bear (more Chicago than Baylor) at home.  And his teams are resilient.  They routinely come back from the most bitter circumstances possible with more determination than Mangino, Tom Amstutz, and Ralph Friedgen competing for the last piece of pizza at a coaches’ clinic.  Even with the play-calling of Nick Quartaro, the Hawks cover with ease.
            KU
2.  Louisville -14.5 @ k-state
 
            This game started the week at 10 points.  Wish I had gotten my money in early.  Shouldn’t make any difference, though.  This is close to being a name the score game for Louisville-even on the road.  They are that good. And, yes, k-state is that bad.
3.  Iowa St +24.5 @ Texas
 
            It’s hard to imagine Iowa St being able to hang with Texas for 60 minutes in Austin.  They do have enough firepower, however, to force UT to score more points than a freshman QB will likely be able to engineer to cover a 3 TD plus FG plus ½ point spread.
            Iowa St
4.  Colorado +26.5 @ Georgia
 
            Until the Buffs actually cover a spread, might as well keep going with the flow.  It’s been easy money so far.
            Georgia
5.  Army +11 @ Baylor
 
            Baylor fools me every week.  When I think they are good enough to cover (e.g., TCU), they fall just short.  When I think they won’t cover, they play lights out-they still lose, but cover (e.g., Washington St).  And this is not a new phenomenon.  It happened last year, and the year before that.  The safe bet is probably to pick them to fail to cover every week.  But what fun would that be?
            The Bears do look like an improving team.  Not that there was another direction available.  Still, Army looked well-drilled against A&M, and fell short by a mere couple of yards or couple of seconds.  I will be surprised if Baylor takes them out by double digits.
            Army
6.  Okie St -1 @ Houston
 
            Okie St’s first game of the season away from home-against an opponent that acquitted itself well against a vastly superior team in the Fort Worth Bowl last December.  Against a comparable team, the home field makes the difference.
            Houston
7.  Troy +22.5 @ Nebraska
 
            Nebraska played the Men of Troy tough last week.  Can they do the same against the Men of Troy this week?  Will Callahan unleash their firepower?  Can they separate themselves from the team that did everything but take out Florida St?  NU should win, but Troy is not fazed by playing big name teams in hostile arenas. 
            Troy
8.  Wisconsin +14 @ Michigan
 
            Michigan is not as good as they looked last Saturday vs. Notre Dame. But then, they couldn’t be. If they were, you could hand them the mythical national championship trophy right now.  The big question is how big will their letdown be one week after?  My guess is that that the home crowd invigorates them and keeps the adrenaline flowing long enough to cover this spread.
            Michigan
9.  Iowa -21 @ Illinois
 
            There is an old saying:  If something is too good to be true, it is.
            There is a competing saying:  Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
            This is a battle of the sayings. 
            I will go with the gift horse.
            Iowa
10.  Penn St +16.5 @ Ohio St
 
            There is an old saying:  If something is too good to be true, it is.
            There is a competing saying:  Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
            This is a battle of the sayings. 
            I will go with the gift horse.
            Ohio St
11.  Notre Dame -3.5 @ Michigan St
 
            Notre Dame is not as bad as they looked last week against Michigan.  But then, they couldn’t be-unless, of course, they had lost to Toledo.  If Mangino were their coach, they would win this one handily, because of their resiliency.  Or would they lose handily because they are on the road? 
            Notre Dame
12.  Alabama +1.5 @ Arkansas
 
            With a shutout, all the Crimson Tide needs to cover is a safety.
            Alabama
13.  UTEP -9.5 @ New Mexico
 
            Mizzou allowed New Mexico a TD with 25 seconds remaining in the game last Saturday, turning a 17 point cover into a 10 point loss against the spread.  Mike Price has UTEP playing  as well as Mizzou and has had two weeks to prepare for the Miners’ conference opener. 
            UTEP 
14.  UCLA -3.5 @ Washington
 
            How bad is Washington?  Let me count the ways.  At least 3.5 of them. 
            UCLA
15.  Arizona St +7.5 @ Cal
 
            It’s that last little ½ that Vegas uses to crush your dreams.  Even though 7.5 doesn’t look like much more than 7, it is virtually the same as 10 or 13.  It is a two score margin.  I will trust the Bears to pull out that second score at home.
            Cal
            If Tampa is in South Florida, where the hell is Miami?  And why are they Bulls instead of some sort of seafood?
            Surf or Turf, the Hawks feast Saturday night in Lawrence.
–Mark
 
 —————————————————————————————————————————-

 ***These picks are for entertainment purposes only.  You get what you pay for.  There are no refunds.
 

For those of us who missed it, the Oklahoma - Oregon game provided a zany ending to say the least.

Former US Senator, Oklahoma Governor, Rhodes Scholar and OU President David Boren had this to say:

“It is truly sad and deeply disappointing that members of our football team should be deprived of the outcome of the game … because of an inexcusable breakdown in officiating”

Down by 13 with just a few minutes to go, Oregon scored a touchdown, then lined up for an onside kick. Though Oregon appeared to have violated the 10 yard rule, officials awarded Oregon with the recovery and the ball, and Oregon went on to score after yet another controversial interference call. Oregon wins.

Here’s a slow motion video of the on-side kick:

Making things worse, it looks like this edit that Oregon didn’t even recover the onside kick:

I didn’t watch it live, so I’ve got only the grainy flash video of YouTube, but the idea that Oregon got this ball is preposterous. Dan Fouts, hall of famer and OREGON GRAD, calls the call “ridiculous” on the broadcast:

You can watch 5:10 of insanity in this video, but you’ve got be hungry, because most of it is already above:

This will go down in the history of College Football as one of the all time blown sequences.

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MANHATTAN, Kan. (AP) — Rashaad Norwood, the leading receiver for the Kansas State Wildcats, was arrested Sunday and charged with two misdemeanor counts of disorderly conduct and obstruction of the legal process.

Norwood appears to have obstructed the legal process. That’s a damnable offense in my law-abiding mind.I don’t know how KSU will recover!Thanks to Quinn for the tip.

Link.

South Florida has struggled to win both of their games against Football Bowl Subdivision Division I-A opponents needing late, fourth quarter touchdowns to defeat both Florida International and Central Florida. This may give back some of the optimism Kansas fans forfeited after watching the Jayhawks struggle to beat Louisiana-Monroe at home and lose at Toledo.

I’ll look at South Florida’s offensive, defensive, and special teams stats today (all stats courtesy of cfbstats.com and for Division I-A games unless otherwise noted). News and notes regarding issues of health, eligibility, and strategy which will impact the game on September 23rd will follow later in the week.

Offense–Running

South Florida has not run the ball effectively in either of their last two games gaining 123 yards (3.6 ypc) and 100 yards (2.6 ypc) against FIU and UCF respectively. Florida International has held all three of their opponents to less than 4 ypc on the ground. UCF’s only other Division I-A opponent was Florida who predictably ran roughshod over the UCF defense (204 yds, 5.7 ypc). South Florida’s run offense fared similarly to Villanova’s (81 yards, 2.6 ypc) against UCF.

155 of South Florida’s 223 rushing yards in the games against FIU and UCF were gained by freshman quarterback (#8) Matt Grothe. Sophomore (#30) Benjamin Williams leads South Florida running backs in rushing with 36 yards (on 14 carries) against I-A opposition.

Offense–Passing

Grothe struggled throwing the ball (15-28, 174 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT) in his first collegiate start against FIU, though his lone touchdown pass was the game-winner. He improved his numbers (22-32, 333 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT) significantly against UCF and again threw a game-winning touchdown pass. Grothe’s improved numbers from his first start to his second may be credited to the respective defenses he faced. UCF allowed Florida 433 passing yards and four touchdowns on 38 attempts the week prior to the South Florida game whereas FIU has allowed their three Division I-A opponents to complete just 55% of their passes for less than 6 yards per attempt while intercepting five passes.

Grothe has spread the ball around to sophomore (#89) Taurus Johnson (9 receptions, 146 yds), senior (#80) Ean Randolph (7 rec, 135 yds, 1 TD), sophomore (#11) Marcus Edwards (6 rec, 49 yds, 1 TD), and sophomore LSU transfer (#6) Amp Hill (4 rec, 56 yds).

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