Means nothing, I know. But nice to see the Ta and the Kaw getting some love from LOOOK Winn at SI.

Julian Wright has his own bowling ball.

The Shockers have beaten half of last year’s final four, one the road!

Link.

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Luke Winn interviews Julian Wright at SI.com.

LW: If the night before the Florida win was serious, what was the night after like in Vegas?

JW: We actually left right away. People were happy, but they were tired, too — it was a high-intensity game. We watched the tape on the way back, and even though we won, we knew we still had work to do, that it’s just a stepping stone to getting better.

LW: So you’re telling me no one wanted to pull an all-nighter on the Strip.

JW: I think a lot of guys wanted to stay a little bit longer, but it was a tiring trip. We didn’t even get back into our rooms until sunrise. Had we gone out [in Vegas], I would have been more scared for the staff than the players. (Laughing.)

Ed. UPDATE: Got to pull out this quote from the comments (thanks Harger):

My name is Tad and I love Julian more than anything in the world. Words can’t describe my passion
-Tad

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I came across this post by Ken Pomeroy detailing how Oral Roberts might beat Memphis in last year’s tournament and some of what he says was eerily clear when ORU beat KU.

My friend Creighton also emailed this to me earlier and I thought I might share it. There’s less hand-wringing about ORU given the Florida win, but all of the Self Bashing that has gone on might stand to take a little historical scrutiny. Feel free to disagree, but I thought Creighton offered some good thoughts:

With all the discussion about the possible ramifications of the team’s mindset because of the loss to Oral Roberts I thought I would look back at our last 5 Final Four teams and see what happened to them in November/December. Here’s what I found:

2002-2003 National Runner-Up team:
11/27/02 North Carolina 67 KU 56 - Preseason NIT (did not make tourney)
11/29/02 Florida 83 KU 73 - Preseason NIT (#2 seed - lost in 2nd round)
12/7/02 Oregon 84 KU 78 - Portland, OR (#8 seed - lost in 1st round)

2001-2002 Final Four team:
11/19/01 Ball State 93 KU 91 - Maui Invitational (did not make tourney)

1992-1993 Final Four team:
12/19/92 KU 86 East Tennessee State 83 - Lawrence (did not make tourney)
12/30/92 Michigan 86 KU 74 - Rainbow Classic (#1 seed - National Runner Up)
1/25/03 Long Beach State 64 KU 49 - Lawrence (not in Nov/Dec but embarrassing nonetheless)

1990-1991 National Runner-Up team:
11/23/90 Arizona State 70 KU 68 - Tempe, AZ (#8 seed - lost in 2nd round)
12/8/90 Kentucky 88 KU 71 - Lexington, KY (did not make tourney)

1987-1988 National Championship team:
11/28/87 Iowa 100 KU 81 - Maui Invitational (#5 seed - lost in Sweet 16)
11/29/87 Illinois 81 KU 75 - Maui Invitational (#3 seed - lost in 2nd round)
12/30/87 St. John’s 70 KU 56 - New York (#11 seed - lost in 1st round)

The point of all this is that 3 of Roy Williams’ 4 final four teams lost in the non conference to a team that did not make the tournament. At this point in the season we don’t know whether or not Oral Roberts will make the tournament. Based upon their performance against KU and the conference they are in there is a pretty high probability that Oral Roberts will make the tournament again this year. I don’t recall fans questioning the mindset of any of these previous final four teams. With Roy’s four teams the only one that was a real surprise was the 91 team. The talent was there it was just a matter of putting it together. The 91 team was 0-1 against ranked non-con opponents. The 93 team was 1-1 against ranked non-con opponents with an impressive win over #2 Indiana. The 02 team was 2-1 against ranked non-con opponents with an impressive win over #4 Arizona. The 03 team was 1-3 against ranked non-con opponents. This year’s team is 1-0 against ranked non-con opponents with an impressive win over #1 Florida. IMO, this puts us in just as good of a position as any of our previous Final Four teams and obviously Roy was not immune to having teams not playing up to their capabilities. Do we want to be perfect now or do we want to continue to improve as the season goes along? I am very happy that we are raw enough to have a lot to work on and yet still play well enough to beat a team like Florida. So is the mindset question being overplayed a bit - my answer is yes.

Thoughts?

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Dean Oliver was, I believe, the first to posit that there are “four factors” to offensive or defensive success: shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws. Dartmouth is poor in each of those areas whether they or their opponents (@UMass, @GW, Colgate, Siena, @Hartford–all losses) have the ball.

Dartmouth shoots under 42% from the field and they allow their opponents to shoot over 57%.

They turn the ball over on 23.6% of their possessions and they force turnovers on just 20.2% of their opponents possessions. That’s actually not terrible but my larger point here is that the best you can say about Dartmouth’s basketball team is that there’s an area in which they are not terrible, merely below average.
They get just 29% of possible offensive rebounds and 65 % of possible defensive rebounds.

The Big Green can shoot free throws–they’ve made 73% of their attempts–but they rarely get the chance. They make one free throw for every 7.4 field goals they attempt. Their opponents shoot one free throw for every 3.3 field goals they attempt.

Kansas is going to win this game going away whether they play or they play poorly, whether they play with passion or just go through the motions. Dartmouth’s bad and they’re decimated by injuries. More than half their roster has missed at least one game so far. I think the most we’ll learn tonight is how many shots Jeremy Case can get up in garbage time.

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Behind Ohio State, UCLA, Pitt and Florida.

Link to poll here. Somebody ping me when the new AP poll comes out. I think we might be in the top 4 there.

We’ll be in a great position to be entrenched in the top 10 for the rest of season if we can match enthusiasm moving forward.

UPDATE: KU is also 5th in the AP poll.

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So pretty much everything I predicted on Friday turned out to be wrong. Kansas won, for one thing. The game was a shootout, albeit a slow paced one. Julian Wright was the best big man on the court by a significant margin. Darrell Arthur, in the few minutes he was allowed to play, was more effective than either Noah or Horford. Robinson and Chalmers had decent games but were outshined by Taurean Green. Sherron Collins looked very much like a freshman and Sasha Kaun looked very much like someone still getting over a knee injury.

And every Jayhawk not named Jon Cornish laid an egg in Columbia.

The good news is that Kansas beat the best college basketball team in the country (and one that posed several difficult matchups for them) without fully correcting many of their obvious and ongoing weaknesses. The bad news is that Kansas still has several obvious and ongoing weaknesses. Chief among them is the complete inability to handle end-of-game situations with much composure. Brandon Rush’s maddening passivity, the team’s penchant for committing unforced turnovers and guards providing needless help defense and leaving shooters open beyond the three-point line all deserve mention as well.

This team is obviously pretty good when they play hard. I still don’t think they’re close to tapping fully into their potential.

stats glossary

For comparison’s sake: 2006 and 2005 individual and team stats from kenpom.com.

TEAM OFFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
NAU	75.0	58.7	39.4	18.7	27.0	1.21
ORU	77.2	44.8	41.9	24.6	16.4	0.92
Towson	75.7	61.4	31.0	23.8	29.8	1.15
Tenn St	72.0	60.2	41.9	20.8	30.5	1.24
Ball St	63.2	46.4	48.6	26.9	23.6	1.01
Florida	61.2	57.1	37.9	17.4	32.1	1.19
Season	70.5	54.6	40.6	22.0	26.3	1.12

There weren’t many turnovers committed against Florida, they just tended to be unneccessary ones (Chalmers and Robinson committing carrying violations twenty-five feet from the basket or Julian Wright attempting to dribble through the Florida zone along the baseline). Overall, though, it was an outstanding (and coming on the heels of Friday’s putrid offensive displaye against Ball State a thoroughly unexpected) offensive performance.

TEAM DEFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
NAU	75.2	38.3	29.3	27.9	23.3	0.76
ORU	73.4	56.0	26.5	21.8	32.8	1.06
Towson	75.2	44.6	31.4	31.9	25.0	0.81
Tenn St	70.7	35.3	29.8	24.1	37.9	0.76
Ball St	60.9	36.2	36.1	31.2	38.3	0.76
Florida	63.7	51.5	38.6	19.5	33.8	1.12
Season	69.7	44.0	32.1	26.0	31.7	0.88

Keep in mind that opponents’ FT Rate counts the number of attempts the opposition gets per 100 field goals. Still, there’s been a lot of fouling in the last three games. Tangentially, I’m still waiting for ESPN to show a replay of Sasha Kaun’s foul on Al Horford in the final minute of regulation so I can determine whether that was the early leader for worst play of the year or worst call of the year.

Updated individual stats after the jump.

(more…)

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If I have to be in the office today, I might as well be productive. Therefore…

Ball State

KU OFFENSE vs. BALL ST. DEFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
KU off	75.0	55.9	39.0	22.0	25.6	1.13
BSU def	65.3	46.0	35.2	33.7	39.1	0.81

KU DEFENSE vs. BALL ST. OFFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
KU def	73.6	43.5	29.3	26.5	29.7	0.85
BSU off	65.6	41.4	43.2	18.8	24.6	1.03

Ball State won their first two games of the year, beating Northern Colorado and Prairie View A&M at home. They lost at home to Chattanooga on Tuesday night. Ball State’s offensive numbers are inflated and their defensive numbers deflated due to their 39-point blowout of Northern Colorado.

The Cardinals have not shot 50% from the floor in any of their three games, though their solid offensive rebounding and free throw shooting (plus an atypical reluctance to turn the ball over against Northern Colorado) have helped them to achieve offensive mediocrity overall against very marginal competition.

Ball State’s defensive success is predicted on forcing turnovers which may keep them in the game for awhile against the Jayhawks.

SO #23 Jalon Perryman comes off the bench but leads Ball State in scoring (31.3 pts/100 possessions) through three games.

Perryman, SO #32 Anthony Newell, JR #2 Micah Rollin, and FR #34 Rashaun McLemore (in limited minutes) all sport offensive rebounding percentages over 10.

JR #5 Steve Horton has shot poorly from the field (25% on two-point attempts, 31.6% on 19 three-point attempts), but enters tonight’s game with a 6.9:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Florida

KU OFFENSE vs. FLORIDA DEFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
KU off	75.0	55.9	39.0	22.0	25.6	1.13
UF def	66.6	38.5	26.5	30.3	30.4	0.71

KU DEFENSE vs. FLORIDA OFFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
KU def	73.6	43.5	29.3	26.5	29.7	0.85
UF off	68.0	63.6	41.4	17.9	21.1	1.31

These numbers are through Florida’s Tuesday game against Prairie View A&M. The Gators’ stats should be slightly less imposing after their game against Western Kentucky tonight in Vegas as Florida has thus far played Samford, Northern Florida, Jacksonville, and Chattanooga at home.

I doubt that will matter as Florida is a terribly difficult matchup for Kansas. As you can see above, Florida will attempt to slow the pace of the game and their adept at forcing turnovers and rebounding on both ends of the court.

The individual matchups along the frontcourt don’t favor Kansas at all. Noah and Horford are superior to any combination of Kansas big men. Both are excellent passers (Noah averages 8 assists/100 possessions, Horford 7.1, and both have assist-to-turnover ratios better than 1:1) capable of exploiting Kansas’s double teams in the post even if the defensive rotations have improved (and they couldn’t be any worse) since the Oral Roberts game. Corey Brewer, himself an excellent passer and efficient scorer, is probably Florida’s best defender and should be expected to expose the limitations of Brandon Rush’s offensive game.

Kansas’s guards will have to outplay their Florida counterparts for the Jayhawks to be competitive. It’s not at all a remote possibilit but Green, Humphrey, and Hodge all shoot the ball well from the three-point line and don’t turn the ball over. Robinson, Chalmers, and Collins need to force the Florida guards to have to score off the dribble. That may be difficult due to the likely constant double-teaming of Florida’s post players. On the other end of the court, Robinson and (especially) Chalmers need to start making some shots while Collins must continue to shoot well.

Thus, to win the game, Kansas will need an excellent team defensive effort in what figures to be a relatively low-scoring game. Plus, the guards will have to score more efficiently than they have thus far, Brandon Rush must not be a complete zero offensively, Julian Wright and Darrell Arthur will have to match the performances of players who are bigger and better than they are, and the Jayhawks can’t afford to get into foul trouble such that Rodrick Stewart or Matt Kleinmann enter the game. I’m not optimistic. I am, however, very much looking forward to the game tomorrow night. It will be especially fun coming on the heels of the football team’s invasion of Columbia.

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Having once again volunteered to provide both sides of our family with a little Thanksgiving turkey, I figured I would pass on a little internet knowledge for all you other turkey makers out there.

It’s a little late, I know, but if it’s not helpful for you this year, it might help next year. First of all, brine that bird! Soak it for at least 12-15 hours in a nice brining solution. I get mine from Williams-Sonoma. It’s a little more expensive, but it’s hassle free, and it’s the best turkey you’ll ever taste. Moist moist moist.

Last year, I made this really tasty turkey, but butchered it like a nubile young thing in a horror flick. It looked like road kill, but my was it good!

This year, I’ve turned to my good friend the internets and used the youtube to find the way to carve this thing properly. I’ve decided to carve the whole breast off and slice thereafter, as opposed to slicing off the bird. Much easier, in my humble opinion. Here’s a video showing you how. Remember, you only have to get your turkey to 165 degrees this year, which means tastier meat for all!

Enjoy and happy Thanksgiving.

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Thursday’s To Do List:

1. Stuff face.

2. Watch Pro football.

3. Watch college football (on split screen or second TV as required).

4. Prepare for Friday and Saturday football.

The games of Week 13***:

FRIDAY:

1. Texas A&M +13 at Texas

UT wants a big victory to ease the sting of their loss to k-state. Good thing for the Longhorns that KU, the team that routed UT’s conquerors by 19 points (should have been 41), is not on their schedule this year. As for this game, UT is at home-and that makes all the difference. That and the Big 12 refs they carry in their pockets like so many nickels and dimes. . .

TEXAS

2. LSU at Arkansas (Pick)

LSU has nothing to lose, which makes them dangerous: i.e., Les Miles can’t choke. Arkansas is at least in the BCS Imaginary Championship discussion, which gives it something to lose. I’ll take the loose talented team over the tight home team.

LSU

3. Colorado +14 at Nebraska

On the first day after Thanksgiving , Las Vegas gave to me. . .

NEBRASKA

4. Oregon +3 at Oregon St

The Beavers are tough at home. Ask USC.

OREGON ST

SATURDAY:

5. KU +7 at Mizzou

I spent a number of paragraphs last week explaining why k-state’s victory over UT and four bucks would get them a cup of coffee at Starbucks. This week, the shoe is on the other foot. KU takes to the road to play a hated rival seven days after a glorious victory that has raised everyone’s hopes and expectations.

The differences?

First, KU’s opponent is not on a roll-or even semi-roll-itself. It is in the midst of a downward spiral in a bottomless pit.

Second, they are coached by Gary Pinkel. There is no reason to believe that he has the leadership traits necessary to right the ship and get the Tigers back on the winning track.

Third, if Mark Mangino has demonstrated nothing else in his tenure at KU, it is that he can prepare for a big game better than Pinkel. And that he can get his team to play hard every game without regard to what happened the week before. They never give up. They never let up.

Well, with the exception of the UT game last year.

This will not be anything like the UT game. It won’t be a rout unless KU is doing the routing.

Can Mizzou win? They have the motivational edge. In addition to being a desperate team trying to salvage its season, they must beat KU Saturday or they will have lost five straight games to the Jayhawks-because if the streak reaches 4 Saturday, they are not going to break KU’s hold on them next fall in Lawrence.

Not that KU has no motivation. The Hawks have the opportunity to nail down a bowl bid-and, perhaps, a decent one. Lose this game, and the giveaways to Toledo, Baylor, and A&M will come home to roost. Emphasis on HOME-as in For the Holidays.

On balance, this game should be a pick–although Mizzou -2 would be understandable because of the venue.

KU +7 is better than any bargain Best Buy or Circuit City is offering this weekend, no matter how early you get out Friday morning.

KU

6. Oklahoma -6 at Okie St

The Bedlam series is in Stillwater this year. OU wins, but the homestanding Bedlammers hang around to the end:

OKLAHOMA

7. South Florida +20.5 at West Virginia

I have made some hay this fall with USF. They are a respectable and under-rated team. They are so good, they almost beat KU. WVU”s offense, however, is rolling like a bowling ball down a luge track. Get out of their way or get bowled over. I’m thinking 45-17.

WVU

8. Syracuse +14.5 at Rutgers

Rutgers obviously was not worthy of playing in the imaginary national championship game. Just thinking about what Ohio St would do to them brings to mind the Texas Chainsaw Massacre. Fortunately, the Scarlet Knights are playing Syracuse, a team not worthy of being in any game, imaginary or REAL.

RUTGERS

9. Louisville -11.5 at Pitt

Call Pitt butter, because the Panthers are on a roll.

NOT! NOT Even at home.

That joke kills in Kazakhstan.

LOUISVILLE

10. North Carolina -7 at Duke

Like MOST basketball schools, these two teams are anxiously awaiting the end of football season. Wouldn’t you just hate to be a fan of a one dimensional sports program like these? As for this pathetic excuse for a football game, Duke better win, because they have nothing but a long, cold winter in front of them in Cameron Indoor Stadium-especially vis a vis UNC.

UNC

11. South Carolina +5.5 at Clemson

Hoping that Steve Spurrier wants this one half as much as he wanted Florida.

SOUTH CAROLINA

12. Florida -9.5 at Florida St

How far has Florida St fallen? The head coach’s son can’t even keep his job.

FLORIDA

13. Georgia Tech +2 at Georgia

The Ramblin’ Wreck might be a heck of a bunch of engineers, but they are a hcek of an inconsistent football team. Unfortunately, I have had little success with their games this year, expecting them to be good the weeks they stink, and expecting them to stink the weeks they look like world-beaters. There isn’t a more inconsistent, maddening team in the land.

Unless it’s Georgia.

Since this game is being played between the hedges, I will go with:

GEORGIA

14. Arizona St +3.5 at Arizona

AU is the PAC 10’s version of KU: Bringin’ it strong late in the season.

ARIZONA

15. Notre Dame +7 at Southern Cal

Southern Cal makes its claim to the other spot in the Imaginary Championship Game.

USC

Lose Tigers, lose to the Big Blue

You’re in the big time when you play KU

Throw the ball away and have no fear

Today the Hawks will grab your tail and kick your rear

So lose Tigers, lose to the Big Blue

We’ll score many points and you’ll score few

We will stomp you ‘til you moan and groan

And you’ll wish we’d stayed at home.

–Mark

_______________________________________________________________***As always:
1. These picks are for entertainment purposes only.
2. You get what you pay for.
3. There are no refunds.

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stats glossary

For comparison’s sake: 2006 and 2005 individual and team stats from kenpom.com.

TEAM OFFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
NAU	75.0	58.7	39.4	18.7	27.0	1.21
ORU	77.2	44.8	41.9	24.6	16.4	0.92
Towson	75.7	61.4	31.0	23.8	29.8	1.15
Tenn St	72.0	60.2	41.9	20.8	30.5	1.24
Season	75.0	55.9	39.0	22.0	25.6	1.13

TEAM DEFENSE

Opp	Poss	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FT Rate	PPP
NAU	75.2	38.3	29.3	27.9	23.3	0.76
ORU	73.4	56.0	26.5	21.8	32.8	1.06
Towson	75.2	44.6	31.4	31.9	25.0	0.81
Tenn St	70.7	35.3	29.8	24.1	37.9	0.76
Season	73.6	43.5	29.3	26.5	29.7	0.85

INDIVIDUAL OFFENSE

Name	Min	eFG%	FT%	FT Rate	PPWS	Pts/100	A/100	TO/100
Robinson	114	32.5	68.8	55.0	0.89	11.2	11.7	2.8
Rush	113	56.4	60.0	19.1	1.16	29.3	3.8	5.7
Wright	109	64.1	70.0	21.9	1.32	23.5	5.4	6.9
Chalmers	100	45.9	62.5	13.5	0.96	20.8	6.4	2.1
Arthur	92	65.1	82.4	32.6	1.39	40.6	0.6	4.6
Jackson	79	68.2	64.3	40.9	1.38	26.3	1.4	6.1
Collins	79	68.0	71.4	20.0	1.39	26.3	5.4	3.4
Stewart	31	30.0	0.0	0.0	0.47	5.2	5.2	1.7
Kleinmann	30	33.3	0.0	0.0	0.67	3.6	1.8	5.3
Morningstar	25	20.0	0.0	0.0	0.40	4.3	4.3	0.0
Case	12	37.5	0.0	0.0	0.75	13.3	17.8	4.4
Kaun	9	100.0	100.0	150.0	2.11	41.5	0.0	11.9
Name	Min	eFG%	FT%	FT Rate	PPWS	Pts/100	A/100	TO/100

INDIVIDUAL REBOUNDING AND DEFENSE

Name	Min	OR%	DR%	BS/100	S/100
Robinson	114	6.2	5.4	0.0	5.7
Rush	113	6.2	13.5	1.0	0.5
Wright	109	10.8	22.4	5.5	3.0
Chalmers	100	1.2	13.2	1.6	6.0
Arthur	92	16.6	11.1	5.3	2.4
Jackson	79	14.9	20.6	2.1	2.1
Collins	79	1.5	10.3	0.0	0.7
Stewart	31	0.0	3.3	0.0	1.8
Kleinmann	30	0.0	23.8	1.8	1.8
Morningstar	25	0.0	20.4	0.0	4.3
Case	12	9.8	0.0	0.0	9.1
Kaun	9	0.0	11.3	0.0	0.0
Name	Min	OR%	DR%	BS/100	S/100

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Hey, I love good gratuitous destruction of someone else’s property as much as the next guy, but I’m inclined to agree with Ryno that when we beat teams like KSU or MU at home, that we shouldn’t give them a de facto compliment by tearing down the goalposts in a raucous celebration. Indeed, for such games as these, I have a modest proposal.

For games that KU should and does win, I propose we keep another set of goal posts on hand for a band of students to come together to put up.

That’s right, an additional set of goal posts.

Having a fanbase tear down posts validates the losers as worthy adversaries. Having said fanbase erect an entirely new and gratuitous set of posts would bestow upon them the ultimate indignity…’even if you had two sets of goal posts at which to kick, you could not have beaten us you miserable slime…’

Anyway, we’d make national news for it and it could be our own tradition.

Who’s with me?

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Nice win for KU yesterday, but not worthy of rushing the field and tearing down $10,000 worth of goal posts.  For all of the freshmen phog-readers out there…KNOCK IT OFF with this crap when we beat a lesser opponent on our own field.  KU wins at home (most of the time).  We should expect to.  And when we celebrate a win over a mediocre K-State team in our own house, the entire program looks ridiculous.  This win is worth a couple of beers after the game at the wheel..and that’s IT.  We were a 2.5 point favorite for heaven’s sake.  I understand that rushing the field is fun..and I’m fine with it after beating Nebraska for the first time in almost half a century.  But come on..yesterday’s post game display was just a joke.

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