Last 10 games….
More likely than not, we’re either 1-0 or 2-0 headed into our last ten games.
Pomeroy has us favored in the rest of our games, but, at least according to his rankings, OU will be a nailbiter. It may very well be, but I think OU is way over-rated by Pomeroy.
I’ve had our game at Bramlage circled as a toughy since day one, and I still think the game will be tough. This team seems to have responded to a pee-away loss this year as they did last year, with steely resolve. You might call this team a spark plug with a bonfire’s mentality. Or I might.
Duke lost again. I believe that’s four in a row and they’ve got Boston College on the horizon. When ESPN is speculating that you mightn’t make the tournament, they’re trying to increase ratings for your upcoming games.
Anyone else notice that we’re scoring more points / game in conference than in non-conference games? That can’t be that common in major conferences. Might want to call that a Sherroncidence, since boyo’s averaging about 13 points a game in conference games and is clearly a fire hydrant with a bull dog’s mentality.
If you haven’t read this diary of a mock selection meeting, you need to.
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11 Responses to “Last 10 games….”
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February 12th, 2007 at 2:09 am
Love the fire hydrant reference…I didn’t think it was possible to say it that many times in a broadcast. Between that and hearing about the exploits of the great Jayhawk Brandon Wright at least three times I almost had to mute the abc broadcast.
February 12th, 2007 at 6:48 am
Dykes is pretty bad… Nessler was brilliant when he used to work with Rick Majerus, and he fared pretty well with Vitale, but Dykes needs to be sent back to the 11 at night west coast games. He used to soapbox even more in those games but there weren’t as many people awake to listen.
February 12th, 2007 at 7:24 am
And what’s so great about a bulldog anyway? To me, they seem lazy and aloof. Wouldn’t you rather be a pit bull or a mastiff? Heck, my Lhaso Apso is pretty damn mean.
February 12th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Re: Oklahoma
If there’s one valuable thing to be drawn from my season spent tracking performance in at-risk games, it’s an understanding of how little can be discerned from the degree to which teams blow out lesser teams at home.
Pomeroy has Oklahoma’s defense ranked 6th in the nation (adjusted). Their raw defensive efficiency is 88.8 pts per 100 possessions.
In their ten at-risk games (vs. Memphis, vs. Purdue, Villanova, @Tulsa, @Alabama, @Texas Tech, @Texas, @Oklahoma State, @Texas A&M, and @Baylor), their raw defensive efficiency is 104.8 pts per 100 possessions.
In Big 12 play, their raw defensive efficiency is 99.6 pts per 100 possessions.
Pomeroy’s work is a great benefit to college basketball fans, but it is, at its heart, formulaic. The formulas work for the vast majority of teams but not always for extreme cases like Oklahoma this year.
February 12th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Ken Pomeroy admits himself that OU is an aberration right now, but your at risk analysis makes it a little clearer why.
That game looks pretty dangerous to us right now, at least according to KenPom, but I’m not sure it’s going to be THAT bad.
Hoops, do you have a good idea of how our offensive efficiency has changed since league play began?
February 12th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Hoopinion, you bring up an excellent point about the non-importance of blowing out lesser teams at home. One thing I’ve been wishing I could do is to replicate Pomeroy’s ratings, THEN eliminate all games involving teams in the bottom half (or 2/3 or whatever), and run the numbers again. So it would essentially be the Pomeroy Ratings, but only for good teams.
Can’t think of a good acronym… PROM (Pomeroy Rating, Obliterating Mismatches)? PROFAT (Pomeroy Rating Only For Above-average Teams)?
February 12th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
On the topic of Oklahoma, Greenfield has them ranked #61, and KU #9. Yet he still has it as only a 3-pt KU victory
I mean, it’s not like KU has cleaned house on the road:
Result Team (Pomeroy, Greenfield)
L @DePaul (46,70)
W @S Carolina (119,93)
W @Iowa St (127,130)
L @Texas Tech (57,64)
W @Baylor (125,137)
W @Nebraska (70,73)
W @Missouri (51,80)
February 12th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Jeremy,
KU’s offensive efficiency was 111 pts/100 possessions in the non-conference season and sits at 112 pts/100 in conference play. I don’t make any adjustments for strength of opponent (because I don’t know how to), but I think it’s safe to assume that the average Big 12 opponent is stronger than Kansas’s average non-conference opponent.
Also, Kansas’s three worst offensive performances in conference play were the consecutive games @Iowa State (96), Missouri (103), and @Texas Tech (97).
Over the last six games, Kansas hasn’t posted an offensive efficiency worse than 104 and that was against Texas A&M (and almost entirely a function of not scoring for the final six minutes). Even I’m starting to believe in this team’s offensive aptitude.
February 12th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
The offense is definitely coming together, and even when everyone isn’t shooting, it can still do pretty well.
AM is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, and we’re unlikely to encounter anyone that can defend KU as well given Billy’s Self-awareness, so it’s good to hear that we did ok against them despite mediocre shooting.
I don’t think we’ll get blown out by anyone and I expect us to finish pretty strong going into the NCAAs.
I’m *really hoping for a protected seed and a trip to Chicago / St Louis, but that might be a bit much to ask.
Everyone knows that I’m always way too optimistic, and while I’m feeling somewhat nervous about both the KSU and the OU game, I like our chances to win out.
February 12th, 2007 at 4:04 pm
I’ll write a full post on this later tonight, but I’ve got a little spreadsheet worked up to combine the raw efficiency game results (from Pomeroy’s Game Plan page) with the opponent’s adjusted efficency ratings to get single game adjusted numbers. For example, in the Mizzou game, KU had an offensive efficiency of 117.7. Given that the game was on the road against a team with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 92.5, you would expect a team with an offensive efficiency rating of 132.5 to do that well.
Anyway, point is, since the Texas Tech loss, Kansas has played like a team with an OffEff of 125.1, and a DefEff of 84.6. Those would rank 2nd and 7th in the nation, respectively. So the offense has looked really good, statistically.
February 12th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
That’s certainly good news. I also like how much better this team is rebounding since the Colorado game. We’re consistently beating teams to the ball.
Lulls on offense and mediocre rebounding were / are still my biggest concern about this team, but as Collins has excelled and we’ve started to rebound better, those concerns are lessening.