Using Pomeroy’s Predictor to Project a Bracket
This is my first post, so I’ll try not to embarass myself.
Last night David sent me a file that can be used to predict games using Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Using this Excel spreadsheet, you can predict the winner of each game, the score, and % of the time that either team will win. There are various uses for this, obviously. What I have done is take Joe Lunardi’s current projected bracket (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology) and figure out what percentage of the time each team will advance to each round. As this is fairly time consuming, I have only done the West region (where Kansas currently resides). Here’s what I came up with:
Advances to 2nd Rd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four
Wisconsin 98.7% 71.2% 51.6% 22.9%
Central Connecticut 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas 98.9% 75.5% 52.0% 37.%
East Tennessee St. 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 94.1% 79.6% 34.4% 21.0%
Pennsylvania 5.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Air Force 94.7% 56.3% 20.2% 5.3%
Vermont 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 75.8% 37.2% 12.3% 2.9%
Santa Clara 24.2% 6.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Virginia 62.8% 13.4% 2.0% 0.5%
Winthrop 37.2% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Southern California 30.6% 4.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Michigan St. 69.4% 19.8% 9.5% 4.9%
Notre Dame 67.6% 22.3% 12.4% 3.5%
Tennessee 32.4% 6.3% 2.1% 0.3%
Obviously, a lot of this depends on the draw, but Kansas will be the favorite to advance in just about any draw they have, as they are #2 in Pomeroy’s ratings. What I found interesting was Wisconsin and Kansas reach the Elite 8 almost the exact same percentage of the time, although Kansas is clearly superior when they play head to head. This is a byproduct of Kansas having both Georgetown (Pomeroy #7) and Michigan St. (Pomeroy #11) in their half of the bracket. I would expect that in an average bracket, Kansas would have a greater chance of reaching the Elite 8, but if they were paired with a stronger #1 seed, their chances of winning their Regional Final game would decrease.
I’ll probably do another one of these with a future Lunardi bracket, and compare the two.
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4 Responses to “Using Pomeroy’s Predictor to Project a Bracket”
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February 24th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Jeremy,
Sorry, new home computer. Can’t remember how to post, or set it up so I can post. I don’t have time to go down to the office to post this scoop.
COLE ALDRICH NAMED TO MCD’S GAME!!! ANNOUNCED TODAY!!!
February 24th, 2007 at 10:48 pm
I obviously figured it out!
February 25th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
Great post Jacob. It will be very interesting to do this analysis once the actual brackets come out.
May 12th, 2007 at 12:06 am
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