Rankings tomorrow
This post will be good for about 15 hours, so get while the getting is good. A quick and dirty projection of next week’s rankings.
1. Wisconsin - Lost…twice…and lost a player. Next week: 6th
2. Ohio State - Nearly peed the bed against Penn State…again…beat a Wisconsin team missing its leading rebounder by a point at home. Next week: moving to their rightful position as the greatest team in all of basketball.
3. Florida - Lost to LSU, sans Glen Big Baby Davis. What’s worse, they got only 23 rebounds. I guess they have an excuse because they have the SEC locked up and have for weeks now, it seems, but one must wonder whether the listless play will carry over into the tournament. If any future Florida foes are watching, here’s how you beat them: zone them, get Joachim frustrated and hope that Humpty isn’t hot. Next week: 4th
4. UCLA - Two solid wins this week, which is about all you can ask for. Next week: 2nd. The only true lock for a one seed, in my opinion, but this means very little. Next week: 2nd (but they’ll get some more first place votes)
5. UNC - A pull-away victory over NCSU and a give-away loss at Maryland. If Maryland were a better team and if they hadn’t had a 12 point lead with less than 10 to play, this wouldn’t have been a bad loss. Still, they’ll get a pass and probably stay a one seed without another slip-up. Next week: 6th
6. KU - A solid win at Huggyville in the biggest game in Manhattan in the last twenty years and another pasting of a conference foe in the Phog v. Iowa State. Next week: 3rd
7. Memphis - I don’t know where to put these guys. I’ve got to think that it says something that KU is pounding better opponents by more. Next week: 7th. I think they’ve hit their ceiling. I said that a few weeks ago.
8. A&M - The Aggies got the job done…it just wasn’t that tough of job. Next week: 8th.
So by the twisted crimson and blue reasoning above, KU should be in pretty good shape for a one seed. But in this coastally biased world in which we livin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stuck at 6th.
Here’s the Phog Blog projected top ten for next week.
1. An Ohio State University
2. UCLA
3. KU
4. Florida
5. UNC
6. Wisconsin
7. Memphis
8. A&M
9. Georgetown
10. Nevada (Idaho State Champions)
Placing 3, 4, 5 and 6 wasn’t easy, so this is my vote people.
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15 Responses to “Rankings tomorrow”
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February 26th, 2007 at 12:25 am
First, keep in mind that the polls mean absolutely nothing. So I wouldn’t worry about whether it’s 3rd or 6th.
Anyway, I was going to disagree with you about being in good shape for a 1 seed, because of what I heard a talking head on TV say (I think it was Jay Bilas). He said he didn’t think it was even possible for KU to get a 1 seed, partly because the conference is so weak. The one fact he gave to support himself was that Kansas has only beaten one team ranked in the top 25 of the RPI (vsFlorida). I thought, “Hmm, that is a pretty paltry sum, I buy that argument.” But now while writing this post, I’ve convinced myself otherwise. It is definitely possible, but things have to swing the right way.
Let’s take a look at top-25 wins of the other contenders:
OHIO STATE … 5 (Indiana, Tennessee, Mich St, @Mich St, Wisconsin)
UCLA … 6 (BYU, vsKentucky, vsTexas A&M, Arizona, Oregon, @Arizona)
UNC … 5 (vsTennessee, Ohio St, Kentucky, @Arizona, @Duke)
Florida … 3 (Ohio St, Tennessee, Kentucky)
Wisconsin … 2 (Pittsburgh, Ohio St)
Georgetown … 2 (Pitt, @Villanova)
Pitt … 2 (Georgetown, @Villanova)
Memphis … 1 (vsKentucky)
So my question is, what if Kansas beats Texas A&M in the Big 12 tourney, and Boston College moves up 1 spot (from 26 to 25)? So KU’s got 3. Meanwhile, Florida loses @Tennessee, beats Kentucky at home, and loses their 2nd game in the SEC tourney. So they’ve got 4 top-25 wins to KU’s 3. But then they’ve got 4 losses in their last 7 games, while Kansas is on an 11 game winning streak. AND KU has a win over Florida on a neutral court. I think clearly in this not-unfathomable situation, KU is ahead of Florida on the S-Curve.
So, if OSU, UNC, and UCLA do their thing and win their conference tourneys, they get 1 seeds. The last spot comes down to Florida, Kansas, and Georgetown or Pitt (whoever wins the Big East tourney). The Big East winner could have 4 top-25 wins by that time, but neither one of them beat anybody notable in nonconference, and I’m pretty sure the committee will hold that against them. I say Kansas gets it (assuming Florida doesn’t win out).
So, here’s what I’ll be rooting for:
-KU wins out (duh)
-Wisconsin falters (already happening)
-Florida falters (already happening)
-surprise teams wins Big East tourney
I think those 4 things happen, KU gets a #1. And the last one might be non-essential.
February 26th, 2007 at 1:27 am
no, we dont want to win out. We need to lose in the big 12 tounrey championship to a streaking team making a run into the tourney. we dont want to be on an 11 game winning streak going into the tourney. that would mean we need 17 in a row, possible, but not likely. My best hope would be we win out last to conference games, lose in the conference championship to a hot texas team going for a 3/4 seed or so in a close game.
being a 1 seed, not that important, a 2 is just about the same thing and honestly i would rather play a 7/10 team than a 8/9 team. usually 8/9 teams are hot and on a roll while 7/10 teams are falling off.
the one thing i would point out is i still think that if there is a Wisc - Ohio St. big 10 championship and Wisc wins, that Wisc gets a 1 and Ohio St. drops to a 2.
February 26th, 2007 at 1:31 am
right now i think the 1’s go to UCLA, UNC, Florida, and Ohio St/Wisc.
the 2’s would be Wisc/Ohio St., KU, Georgetown, A&M.
my bigger question is, IF A&M loses and we win the conference, and neither of us wins the conference tournament, who gets top priority in seeding, KU or A&M? we would have the conference and a better record but they beat us at home?
February 26th, 2007 at 10:42 am
That’s an interesting point about a long winning streak. I only checked the last 8 years, but in that time the longest winning streak heading into the tourney for the national champion was 5.
honestly i would rather play a 7/10 team than a 8/9 team. usually 8/9 teams are hot and on a roll while 7/10 teams are falling off
OK, I have no evidence either way about how hot the teams are, so I’ll just take your word for it. But look at the “last 10 games” record for the most recent 8/9 seeds to knock off 1 seeds:
2004 Alabama … 6-4 (lost 2 of 3)
2004 UAB … 7-3 (lost 3 of 7)
2002 UCLA … 5-5 (lost 4 of 6)
2000 N Carolina … 5-5 (lost 4 of 6)
2000 Wisconsin … 7-3
Not exactly “hot and on a roll.”
February 26th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Florida went on a big roll going into the tournament last year. I believe the tourney was their 15th or 16th straight win.
I meant to comment on it earlier, but no team in either the NBA or NCAA Division 1 men have gotten a streak longer than 17 this year.
If KU wins out, they’ll cut down the nets in Atlanta having won…you guessed it…17 in a row.
February 26th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Th championship game was Florida’s 11th straight win.
February 26th, 2007 at 11:25 am
David, your right, i have no stats to back up the 8/9 7/10 thing but its just one of those things i dont know. i dont think being a 1 or a 2 matters to us.
and yes last year i know Florida won the SEC tournament and went on to win the NCAA but most teams that win their conference tournaments dont seem to do as well come NCAA time.
February 26th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
KU is 3rd in the USA Today poll
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/usatpoll.htm
February 26th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
I don’t remember the exact numbers but something like 80% of 1 seeds make the Sweet 16 while its only 55% or thereabouts for 2 seeds.
February 26th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
#1 seeds are 76-12 (.864) in the 2nd round since the expansion to 64 teams in 1985.
#2 seeds are 55-29 (.655), with 4 first round losses. In the last 10 years, the number of top seeds losing early has increased, especially #2 seeds.
#1 seeds are still pretty close totheir historical percentage in the 2nd round (34-6, .850), but only half the #2 seeds made it through to the Sweet 16 (20-18, .526 in the
2nd round with two 1st round losses.)
Here are the upsets of #1 and #2 seeds in the first two round since 1997.
2006 : #7 Wichita State beat #2 Tennessee, #7 Georgetown beat #2 Ohio
State
2005 : #10 N.C. State beat #2 Connecticut, #7 West Virginia beat #2
Wake Forest
2004 : #10 Nevada beat #2 Gonzaga, #9 UAB beat #1 Kentucky, #8 Alabama
beat #1 Stanford, #7 Xavier beat #2 Mississippi State
2003 : #10 Auburn beat #2 Wake Forest, #7 Michigan State beat #2 Florida
2002 : #10 Kent State beat #2 Alabama, #8 CCLA beat #1 Cincinnati
2001 : #7 Penn State beat #2 CCOC (#2 Iowa State lost in the 1st round)
2000 : #10 Seton Hall beat #2 Temple, #10 Gonzaga beat #2 St. John’s,
#8 Wisconsin beat #1 Arizona, #8 CCOC beat #1 Stanford, #7 Tulsa beat
#2 Cincinnati
1999 : #10 Miami-OH beat #2 Utah, #10 Purdue beat #2 Miami-FL, #10
Gonzaga beat #2 Stanford
1998 : #10 West Virginia beat #2 Cincinnati, #8 Rhode Island beat #1
Kansas
1997 : #10 Providence beat #2 Duke (#2 South Carolina lost in the 1st
round)
February 26th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
Thing is, all these numbers about 2 seeds doing worse don’t mean that 7/10 seeds are better. Could just be that 2 seeds are worse than 1 seeds. And if that’s the case, then getting a 1 or a 2 doesn’t matter, what really matters is how good the team is. What would really be interesting is if you could somehow look at the performance of only those 1’s and 2’s that were borderline, and could have been seeded in either spot.
February 26th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
DavidH, Don’t forget that a win on Saturday over Texas would be another top 25 win. They are currently 15th and on their way up.
Personally I see no need to lose in the conference tournament. I know 17 in a row is a lot to ask but I see this team as the most talented in the country. Well seem to have gotten everything clicking and have been playing extremely well on both sides of the ball. I see Sherron Collins having the ability to pull us out of scoring slumps and getting other teams into serious foul trouble down the stretch.
If you take a look at Joe Lunardi’s current bracket predictions they look extremly favorable to KU at the moment. We would be playing in St. Louis with Ohio State as the one seed. I personally feel they are the weakest top team. They barely escaped defeat yesterday to Wisconsin who lost they leading rebounder.
February 26th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
In Joe’s bracket, we’d also face off against Wisconsin in order to play in the National Championship game. I don’t think they’ll make it that far, but one couldn’t complain about that bracket.
February 26th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
JCook, I’m talking about RPI top 25, which is what is listed in the committee’s nitty gritty report. Texas is 36th in RPI, according to Lunardi.
February 26th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
I agree that Ohio State is the weakest 1 seed as of now BUT the one thing that scares me against Ohio State is OUR coach. Self would most likely play Kaun against Oden, but that is NOT how you beat him. Darnell can make Oden gaurd him 15 feet from the hoop so our gaurds can drive like they like to do. Sasha’s game style would be extremally hurtful against Oden as Oden would work Sasha and still be able to block our guards drives.
the other thing that could hurt us against Ohio St. is they like to shoot 3’s and we let teams shoot 3’s against us.