Efficiency Preview: Kansas at Oklahoma
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I posted an efficiency laden preview of the Ohio St vs. Wisconsin game over at yocohoops. I’m going to do the same thing here for the KU-OU game, but with less explanation of the numbers, since you PB readers have had a couple posts to get used to them. For reference, here is the original post that explains what I’m doing. There’s not going to be a lot of analysis, just numbers and graphs. Sorry about that, but I feel Hoopinion and Chalmersfan do a much better job of that than I do.
After the break, for both teams I’ve included a graph that charts the offensive and defensive ratings for each game of the season. Keep in mind that for the defensive rating, lower is better. For both offense and defense, I’ve included a trendline showing roughly how each unit has progressed over the year. Also, the dotted line shows the national average efficiency.
I’ve also included the average ratings for their last ten games, to give a snapshot of how the team is playing right now. To give these numbers some context, I show where this would rank in the full-season stats, and what team’s full-season rating is the closest.
Kansas
| LAST 10 | RATING | EQUIV RNK | EQUIV TEAM |
| Offense | 126.2 | 1 | Georgetown |
| Defense | 79.1 | 1 | Kansas |
| Pythag | .9952 | 1 | nobody really |
Obviously this graph looks really nice. Offense is trending upwards, and 4 of the best 5 games have come in the last 6 games. Defense is trending downwards, and 2 of the best 4 have come in the last 4. Really not much to say here that you wouldn’t have figured out from using your eyes or traditional stats. The team has playing at a very high level against inferior competition.
Oklahoma
| LAST 10 | RATING | EQUIV RNK | EQUIV TEAM |
| Offense | 111.4 | 61 | Marquette |
| Defense | 92.6 | 49 | Missouri |
| Pythag | .8941 | 52 | Kansas St. |
Oklahoma’s offense has improved over the season, but leveled off recently. Their bad games are around average, and their good games are 25% above average, instead of their bad games being 10% below average and their good games being 15% above average. Still some inconsistency. But the improvement in their offense is canceled out by their decline in defense. They haven’t had a very good defensive game in their last seven. Their last 10 games, they’ve played like a top 50 team, but not won like a top 50 team, which has been the story all year. According to Pomeroy, they’re the unluckiest team in the country. Still, they should at least be better competition than Iowa State.
Predictions
Efficiency based:
- Pomeroy… +6 … KU 65 OU 59
- Last 10 … +18 … KU 77 OU 59
- Trendlines … +24 … KU 80 OU 56
- Streaks … +18 … KU 76 OU 58
Power ratings:
- Sagarin … +6.4
- Greenfield … +5.4
- Dolphin … +5.8 … KU 65 OU 59
- Dokter … +4.5
- Moore … +10.4
- Ashby … +7 … KU 69 OU 62
- Lynch … +2.7
- Dunkel … +10.5
Other:
- Vegas … +7 … KU 68 OU 61
- My subjective pick … +12 … KU 70 OU 58
The efficiency data seems to suggest this won’t be as close as all the power ratings and Vegas suggest, but I haven’t been tracking these predictions for long, so who knows how accurate it will be. I’m going with a balance between the efficiency and power ratings, and saying it’s a 12-point KU win.
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14 Responses to “Efficiency Preview: Kansas at Oklahoma”
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February 26th, 2007 at 11:58 am
I really, really, really like these graphs.
February 26th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
Thanks, I really like messing around with the numbers.
February 26th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
If you’re taking requests, I think the Pitt defense and the Air Force offense would be interesting to look at.
February 26th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
KU will continue its domination.
KU - 79
OU - 61
is Robinson playing tonight? and just a little note, i played against Longar in high school, he dominated us.
February 26th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
KU hasn’t won by more than ten in Norman since I was alive, unless I’m mistaken.
They’ll do that tonight
KU 74
OU 59
On a side note, the graphs are extremely helpful. At the end of the year, we’ll be able to see if the “last ten” numbers really correlated to tourney success. The ultimate correlation, of course, would be the Phog Blog championship party at Hoopinion’s crib in the ATL.
February 26th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
That Air Force graph really has me worried. It looks like there’s an awful lot of covariation going on here, which is something I don’t know how to account for. Then again, I look at the KU graph and see the opposite, so maybe Air Force is just a fluke.
[EDIT: I just noticed I forgot to include the last few games for Air Force the first time. Now I’m not quite as worried.]
February 26th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
David, I modified the comment to include the images, lmk if that’s a bandwidth issue. Any idea why Air Force’s offense is going into the toilet?
February 26th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Thanks, David.
Air Force is a weird team. They went from leading the nation in AdjO by a wide margin early in the year to averaging less than 1.09 pts per possession (unadjusted) in the MWC.
I hadn’t noticed that their defense had almsot kept up.
I also don’t know if there’s another team that has both scored and allowed less than 0.7 pts per possession, much less one that’s done the double in back-to-back games.
Pitt looked like a good version of Oklahoma State for the first half of the year. It’s interesting both to see that their defensive improvement in the second-half appears to be legitimate and that it may have come at some cost to the offensive performance. I haven’t noticed any significant changes in playing time.
February 26th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Hoopinion…that’s the way I was reading it, but I hadn’t followed either team closely enough to confirm it with my eyes.
February 26th, 2007 at 3:32 pm
[…] Jeremy Chrysler: Hoopinion…that’s the way I was reading it, but I hadn’t followed either team closely enough to confirm it with my… […]
February 26th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Just FYI, I’ve used those trendlines to predict 2 games so far.
Vegas said: Ohio St over Wisconsin by 4.5
Trendline said: Ohio St over Wisconsin by 2
Actual result: Ohio St over Wisconsin by 1
Vegas said: Georgetown by 3 over Syracuse
Trendline said: Syracuse by 1 over Georgetown
Right now: Syracuse up by 13 with 6:00 left
February 27th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
Not sure where else to post this…
You’ll just have to trust me on this, since I’m posting it after the fact, but here’s how the “trendline” predictions for the top-25 games fared tonight. VERY well:
Vegas: Florida by 4
Trendlines: Tennessee by 7
Actual: Tennessee by 10
Vegas: Pitt by 9
Trendlines: Pitt by 12
Actual: Pitt by 14
Vegas: Air Force by 5.5
Trendlines: BYU by 1
Actual: BYU by 4
Now, it whiffed on the KU game. Said it’d be a blowout, but it was actually close. Still, 5 out of 6 ain’t bad. I especially like the 3 for 3 on upsets.
February 28th, 2007 at 12:03 am
And tomorrow’s top-25 trendline predictions:
VANDERBILT @ SOUTH CAROLINA
Vegas: Vanderbilt by 1.5
Tredline: South Carolina by 11
MARYLAND @ DUKE
Vegas: Duke by 5.5
Trendline: Duke by 2
TEXAS A&M @ TEXAS
Vegas: Texas by 2
Trendline: Texas by 15
February 28th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
Vegas had that Big 12 game right