Efficiency Preview: Kansas at Oklahoma

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I posted an efficiency laden preview of the Ohio St vs. Wisconsin game over at yocohoops. I’m going to do the same thing here for the KU-OU game, but with less explanation of the numbers, since you PB readers have had a couple posts to get used to them. For reference, here is the original post that explains what I’m doing. There’s not going to be a lot of analysis, just numbers and graphs. Sorry about that, but I feel Hoopinion and Chalmersfan do a much better job of that than I do.

After the break, for both teams I’ve included a graph that charts the offensive and defensive ratings for each game of the season. Keep in mind that for the defensive rating, lower is better. For both offense and defense, I’ve included a trendline showing roughly how each unit has progressed over the year. Also, the dotted line shows the national average efficiency.

I’ve also included the average ratings for their last ten games, to give a snapshot of how the team is playing right now. To give these numbers some context, I show where this would rank in the full-season stats, and what team’s full-season rating is the closest.

Kansas

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LAST 10 RATING EQUIV RNK EQUIV TEAM
Offense 126.2 1 Georgetown
Defense 79.1 1 Kansas
Pythag .9952 1 nobody really

Obviously this graph looks really nice. Offense is trending upwards, and 4 of the best 5 games have come in the last 6 games. Defense is trending downwards, and 2 of the best 4 have come in the last 4. Really not much to say here that you wouldn’t have figured out from using your eyes or traditional stats. The team has playing at a very high level against inferior competition.

Oklahoma

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LAST 10 RATING EQUIV RNK EQUIV TEAM
Offense 111.4 61 Marquette
Defense 92.6 49 Missouri
Pythag .8941 52 Kansas St.

Oklahoma’s offense has improved over the season, but leveled off recently. Their bad games are around average, and their good games are 25% above average, instead of their bad games being 10% below average and their good games being 15% above average. Still some inconsistency. But the improvement in their offense is canceled out by their decline in defense. They haven’t had a very good defensive game in their last seven. Their last 10 games, they’ve played like a top 50 team, but not won like a top 50 team, which has been the story all year. According to Pomeroy, they’re the unluckiest team in the country. Still, they should at least be better competition than Iowa State.

Predictions

Efficiency based:

  • Pomeroy… +6 … KU 65 OU 59
  • Last 10 … +18 … KU 77 OU 59
  • Trendlines … +24 … KU 80 OU 56
  • Streaks … +18 … KU 76 OU 58

Power ratings:

Other:

  • Vegas … +7 … KU 68 OU 61
  • My subjective pick … +12 … KU 70 OU 58

The efficiency data seems to suggest this won’t be as close as all the power ratings and Vegas suggest, but I haven’t been tracking these predictions for long, so who knows how accurate it will be. I’m going with a balance between the efficiency and power ratings, and saying it’s a 12-point KU win.