Phog Blog » Stats Glossary

Stats Glossary

posted by Hoopinion on 2/28/2007 -

Here’s a glossary of terms thrown around on Phog Blog:

(Estimated) Team Possessions = FGA+(.44*FTA)+TO-OR

THE FOUR FACTORS

Effective Field Goal Perentage (eFG%) = (FGM+(0.5*3PTM))/FGA

Free Throw Rate (FT Rate) = (FTM*100)/FGA

Note: For teams, their opponents’ FT Rate is calculated as (FTA*100)/FGA on the assumption that, over time, you have minimal control over how well your opponents shoot free throws.

Turnover Percentage (TO%) = TO/Possessions

Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) = OR/(teamOR+oppDR)

Note: individual offensive rebounding percentage = player’s OR/((teamOR+oppDR)*(player’s MIN/(teamMIN/5)))

Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DR%) = DR/(teamDR+oppOR)

Note: individual defensive rebounding percentage = player’s DR/((teamDR+oppOR)*(player’s MIN/(teamMIN/5)))

SOME INDIVIDUAL STATS

PPWS (Points Per Weighted Shot) = PTS/(FGA+(.44*FTA))
Pts/100 = Points per 100 individual possessions
A/100 = Assists per 100 individual possessions
TO/100 = Turnovers per 100 individual possessions
S/100 = Steals per 100 individual possessions
BS/100 = Blocked Shots per 100 individual possessions

Note: individual possessions = (Min/(teamMin/5))*teamPossessions

TEAM EFFICIENCY STATS

Offensive Efficiency (OE) = the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions
Defensive Efficiency (DE) = the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions

Efficiency ratings come in several flavors. If one of these words is used to describe an efficiency rating, it means the following:

Raw (OE or DE)= tells you what actually happened, without adjusting for the opponent or location
Adjusted = adjusted based on opponent rating and location in order to indicate how many points a team would score or allow per 100 possessions against an exactly average opponent. There are two types of adjustments.

Season (AOE or ADE) = Explained in depth here. Essentially, all the ratings for all the teams are adjusted so that predictions based on the ratings best match the actual results.
Single game (AGOE or AGDE) = Takes the opponent ratings, location, and score from a single game and tells you the ratings of a hypothetical team that would have gotten the same result.

Pythagorean Rating (Pyth) = a rating that supposedly tells what a team’s winning percentage would be over time against an average schedule. As always, a longer explanation is on Pomeroy’s site. The formula is:

AOE^11.5 / (AOE^11.5 + ADE^11.5) … AGOE and AGDE can be used in place of AOE and ADE

SCORE PREDICTIONS

Predictions based on efficiency ratings all use the same formula, listed below. More explanation can be found here. The only difference between the various predictions is in what values are used for the offensive and defensive efficiencies.

[TeamA predicted offensive efficiency] = [TeamA offensive efficiency] x [TeamB defensive efficiency] / [National average efficiency]

Home field advantage is accounted for by multiplying the home offense and the visiting defense by 1.014, and dividing the home defense and the visiting offense by the same.

“Last 10″ = uses the average of the two teams’ last 10 Adjusted Game Efficieny ratings
Trendline = A 2nd-order polynomial trendline is fit to the season-long graph of individual AGOE and AGDE ratings. The trendline’s value as of the latest game is used in the equation.
Streaks = This tries to take a middle ground between two “streak” predicitons. The last N AGOE and AGDE ratings are averaged, where N is between 5 and 10, with the value of N selected to maximize the home team’s predicted margin of victory. Then the reverse is done, but N is selected to maximize the visiting team’s margin of victory. The two predictions are then averaged.Recommended further reading for those interested is available from the invaluable Ken Pomeroy (some of these are the same links from above):

If any of the above is unclear or incomplete, please ask about it in the comments and we’ll be glad to try and do better.

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3 Responses to “Stats Glossary”

Phog Blog » Preview: Kansas vs. Kentucky (2nd Round–NCAA Tournament) Says:
March 17th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
[…] Kentucky’s offense performed quite similarly to Kansas’s in at-risk games. The Wildcats make a few more shots and rebound a lower percentage of their misses. The frequency with which they turn the ball over will necessitate that they make a typical percentage of their field goals. That’s extremely difficult to do against Kansas. Kentucky has a shot at doing so, though, as Sheray Thomas is the only player in the Wildcat rotation to shoot less than 50 eFG% or score less than 1.07 PPWS. […]
Phog Blog » Julian Wright Entering NBA Draft Says:
April 9th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
[…] stats glossary […]
Phog Blog » Rush Declaring For Draft, Not Hiring Agent Says:
April 27th, 2007 at 10:40 am
[…] stats glossary […]

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Stats Glossary

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