Phog Blog » Efficiency Preview: Texas at Kansas

Efficiency Preview: Texas at Kansas

posted by DavidH on 3/2/2007 -

Click here for the preview that actually gives you some ideas about how this game’s going to be played. Read on for the one with pretty graphs and hand waving. Format is the same as last time, so you can skip the next paragraph unless you need a refresher. (And for reference, here is the original post that kind of explains what I’m doing).

After the break, for both teams I’ve included a graph that charts the offensive and defensive ratings for each game of the season. Keep in mind that for the defensive rating, lower is better. For both offense and defense, I’ve included a trendline showing roughly how each unit has progressed over the year. The dotted line shows the national average efficiency. I’ve also included the average ratings for their last ten games, to give a snapshot of how the team is playing right now. To give these numbers some context, I show where this would rank in the full-season stats, and what team’s full-season rating is the closest.

Texas

LAST 10	RATING	EQUIV RNK	EQUIV TEAM
Offense	126.4	1	Georgetown
Defense	95.0	69	Fordham
Pythag	.9640	13	Michigan St

I was going to lead off with a comment about how great the Texas offense played against Texas A&M, and that it was the best any offense had done against the Aggies since _______. But _______ turns out to be Baylor, just 4 days earlier, so apparently the A&M D wasn’t quite at top form heading into the game. Still, look at that graph. 7 of the past 9 games Texas has had a rating over 125 (better than the year-long efficiency of the #1-rated Hoyas). And they’ve put some great numbers up against very good defenses. They’ve played 8 games against Pomeroy’s top 30 defenses, and reached 1.09 PPP in 5 of them:

Opponent	Adj Def Eff*	Texas Game	Diff
Michigan St.	85.8	95.5	9.7
Louisiana St.	90.1	98.7	8.6
Arkansas	90.5	120.4	29.9
Oklahoma	88.1	124.9	36.8
Villanova	87.4	95.4	8
Texas A&M	84.0	109.2	25.2
Oklahoma	85.3	112.5	27.2
Texas A&M	86.8	118.5	31.7
AVERAGE	87.7	109.4	22.1
Kansas	79.0	???	???

*adjusted for site of game

OK, so you already knew Texas had a good offense. But did you know their defense has been playing a little better recently? Now, “better” is relative - it’s not like they’ve all of a sudden turned into last year’s team. But prior to Wednesday, they’d held 5 straight opponents to an eFG% under 50, and forced 5 straight to turn the ball over at an 18% rate (their first and second such streaks this season, respectively). I expect the second streak to continue. Whether the first does will probably determine whether this is a close game or an easy win for Kansas.

Kansas

LAST 10	RATING	EQUIV RNK	EQUIV TEAM
Offense	125.3	1	Georgetown
Defense	80.6	2	Kansas
Pythag	.9938	1	N Carolina

Scraping out a narrow victory in Norman on senior night against a strong defensive OU team hasn’t altered the graph much. The offense is still trending upwards, though not as strongly as before, and the defense is still trending down at the same rate. Take KU’s worst offensive game in their last 11, pair it with their worst defensive game in the last 6, and they still should be expected to beat Texas, though it would be close.

One slightly worrisome fact for KU fans is that the team’s offensive performance is significantly correlated to their defensive performance, specifically opponent eFG% and OR% (see the bottom of this page). No other KU opponent this year has ranked as high in both eFG% and OR% as Texas. So not only might the Texas offense be a tough test for the Kansas defense, it might also be a tough test for the Kansas offense.

Just a note - the comparison of the offense to Georgetown (for both these teams) is a bit misleading. Sure, they’re playing at a level equivalent to GTown’s season stats, but the Hoyas are playing even better than that recently. I’d like to get a database up and running that can automatically calculate last-10 ratings for all the teams. But I’d like a free burrito about now, too.

Predictions

As Jacob pointed out, this is a matchup of two of the hottest teams in the country. If both teams are at the top of their game, there will be 3 elite units on the floor - the exception being the Texas defense. But if Texas can shoot and rebound well, the lack of transition opportunities will keep the Kansas offense from performing at it’s best, and Texas will be able to stay in the game. I’m gonna say this ends up being Texas’s “A” game vs. KU’s “A-” game. That should be enough for the Hawks to pull out a single digit home win.

My subjective pick … +7 … KU 81 UT 74
Vegas … +9.5 … KU 79 UT 69

Efficiency based:

Pomeroy… +13 … KU 79 UT 67
Last 10 … +16 … KU 86 UT 70
Trendlines … +12 … KU 81 UT 69
Streaks … +14 … KU 81 UT 67

Power ratings:

Sagarin … +11.5
Greenfield … +6.5
Dolphin … +11 … KU 78 UT 67
Dokter … +8.5
Moore … +14.5
Ashby … +11 … KU 86 UT 75
Lynch … +7.5
Dunkel … +16

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8 Responses to “Efficiency Preview: Texas at Kansas”

Jeremy Chrysler Says:
March 2nd, 2007 at 5:18 pm
KU 83
UT 69
awiggo Says:
March 2nd, 2007 at 10:05 pm
Fantastic post. Your Texas graph confirms what PB and I have been writing about on Burnt Orange Nation all year. Our offense is an elite unit and our defense, while never good, is certainly improving.

Hoping for a great game in Lawrence.

Love the blog, btw.

AW
Burnt Orange Nation
DavidH Says:
March 3rd, 2007 at 4:08 am
Aaaaaaaaargh, I just found out I’m going to be getting UConn at GTown instead of Texas at KU.

I [heart inside a no smoking circle]
NY
nychawk Says:
March 3rd, 2007 at 2:46 pm
i feel your pain, DavidH. at least they gave us the last few minutes so i could have a stroke watching us brick free throw after free throw. has sasha kaun become our best foul shooter?
nychawk Says:
March 3rd, 2007 at 2:48 pm
adding: that uconn-georgetown game sure was exciting…
jayhawkgl Says:
March 3rd, 2007 at 5:54 pm
Huge win…little disappointed in the media because virtually everyone is writing that KU went on a run *after* Durant was hurt. Durant didn’t go out until 9 minutes into the 2nd half and KU had pulled even by then (or somewhere right around there). Was very impressed with their 2nd half attitude!
DavidH Says:
March 3rd, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Yeah, when Durant fell to the floor, KU was up 69-65. They scored to make it 71-65 before the whistle blew, then he left. When he came back it was 81-72, I think. The made up the huge deficit and went ahead for good while Durant was still perfectly healthy.
JCook Says:
March 3rd, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Yeah, they just came into the second half with a whole new attitude and totally took Durant out of the game. He only had 2 points in the first 9 minutes of that half. Kansas one because they half a full team not a one man show.

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Efficiency Preview: Texas at Kansas

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