Phog Blog » 2008 » February

REAL Standings: Leap Year Edition

posted by Mark on 2/27/2008 -

MIDWEEK RECAP

The major Midweek story, of course, was k-state taking a dive against UT, knowing full well that doing so would visit the ultimate blow to their arch-rivals by knocking KU out of a flat-footed tie with UT in the REAL Standings and dropping the Jayhawks into second place.

Hey, I understand the animosity and all after spending 25 years as the Hawks’—how should I say, delicately, on a blog that might be read by youngsters: as the Hawks’ whipping boys.

Still, you would think Frank Martin, who has the outward appearance of a pit boss veteran, could have been more subtle about it. Letting Beasley ride the pine with the score deadlocked at 50 until UT took firm control of the contest with seven unanswered points. And simultaneously “resting” his second best player, Bill Walker, was nothing short of arrogance. Oh, and Walker—going 0-10 from the field was just plain clumsy. Your job is to create the appearance that you are trying to win the game.

At any rate, UT picked up a full game in the RSP with its W over what was, at the time, a Tier One Team. But no longer. Whether due to incompetence or chicanery, k-state, with a Home loss to go with its four Road setbacks, drops to Tier Two. In fact, with Road games remaining at KU and Iowa St, k-state will likely need to win in Ames just to match last year’s 10-6 conference record—which was not good enough to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.

The other big Weekday winner was Okie St, also picking up a full game in the RSP with its second consecutive Road victory—this one in Columbia–as well as its second consecutive last minute W.

Baylor picked up ½ game with its win at Tier Three CU.

The other three Midweek games were all Non-Events for purposes of the REAL Standings: KU over Third Tier Iowa St in Ames, and A&M and NU at Home vs. Texas Tech and OU respectively.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/29/08

Note: The current breakdown of teams into tiers, which is the only subjective aspect of the REAL Standings is:

Tier One: KU, UT
Tier Two: Baylor, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Tier Three: CU, ISU

1. 13.5-2.5

UT (11-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at TT

2. 12.5-3.5

KU (10-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at A&M

3. 9.5-6.5

k-state (8-5) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at ISU

4. 9-7

Baylor (7-6) Projected L’s: at TT
Losable games: None

5. 8-8

OU (6-7) Projected L’s: at OSU
Losable games: None

OSU (6-7) Projected L’s: at MU, at UT
Losable games: None

7. 7.5-8.5

A&M (7-6) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

Tech (6-7) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: UT

9. 7-9

NU (7-7) Projected L’s: at OSU, at UT
Losable games: None

10. 6-10

MU (5-8) Projected L’s: at BU, at OU
Losable games: None

11. 4-12

ISU (4-9) Projected L’s: at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: None

12. 3-13

CU (2-11) Projected L’s: at ksu, at NU
Losable games: None

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

SATURDAY

1. NU at Okie St (12:30p.m.)***

Nice match up between two teams which, if not red hot, are a bit warmer than Luke.

Projected W: Okie St

2. A&M at OU (1:00p.m.)***

An elimination game for the Big Dance? Not quite, but not far from being one.

Projected W: OU

3. Mizzou at Baylor (3:00p.m.)***

Would you take the Over or Under at 185?

Projected W: Baylor

4. UT at Tech (3:00p.m.)***1/2

For all intents and purposes, KU’s chances of a share of their 51st conference rest on the shoulders of Martin Zeno and Co. The Techsters did not even show up for their first game vs. UT in Austin. However, has a team ever resembled Dr. Jekyll at home and Mr. Hyde on the Road more than this year’s Red Raiders? And they have no incentive to take a dive.

Projected W: None

5. ISU at CU (4:00p.m.)*

This is two years of your life you will never get back. Errrr—make that hours. It will just seem like years.

Projected W: CU

6. k-state at KU (8:00p.m.)****

‘Nuf said.

Projected W: KU

–Mark

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REAL Standings: And they say politics makes for strange bedfellows edition. . .

posted by Mark on 2/24/2008 -

WEEKEND RECAP

The most important result this weekend found KU dropping a half game in the REAL Standings by frittering away a game against a vastly inferior team in Stillwater. In doing so, the Jayhawks, instead of taking a full game lead on UT, and protecting themselves against a UT W in Manhattan this Monday night, fell into a flat-footed tie with the Longhorns and now must pin their hopes on arch-rival k-state to keep UT from picking up a full game in the RSP and taking a formidable lead over the Hawks with only two games of REAL significance remaining on the Big 12 schedule: i.e., UT’s Losable game at Tech this coming Saturday, and KU’s Losable game in College Station a week later.

I must admit to giving some thought to dropping KU to Tier Two status after Saturday’s exercise in patheticism. My subjective standard for Tier One is that a team appear capable of winning every conference game at Home and at least half of its Road games. The Hawks are close to not meeting that definition if you question their chances in Ames Wednesday night. I can’t quite go there yet. I am also generally slow to change a team’s current status unless there is no reasonable argument to make for keeping it where it is.

The other result that mattered came out of Waco, as Baylor virtually ended k-state’s hopes for even a share of the Big 12 championship, dropping k-state another ½ game in the RSP. k-state should probably be dropped from Tier One with its fourth Road loss, but the sheer force of inertia says let’s see what they do Monday night.

The biggest numerical gainer of the week was Nebraska, as the Huskers continued its late season charge with a W in College Station in a game that had been a projected L. NU has not lost since being temporarily dropped to Tier Three in the RSP. Guess they took it personally.

Projected Home wins by Tech (vs. ISU), UT (vs. OU), and Mizzou (vs. CU) were all Non-Events for REAL Standings purposes.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/21/08

Note: The current breakdown of teams into tiers, which is the only subjective aspect of the REAL Standings is:

Tier One: KU, k-state, UT
Tier Two: Baylor, Mizzou, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Tier Three: CU, ISU

1. 12.5-3.5

KU (9-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at A&M

UT (10-2) Projected L’s: at ksu
Losable games: at TT

3. 11-5

k-state (8-4) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: None

4. 8.5-7.5

Baylor (6-6) Projected L’s: at TT
Losable games: at CU

5. 8-8

OU (6-6) Projected L’s: at NU, at OSU
Losable games: None

6. 7.5-8.5

A&M (6-6) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

Tech (6-6) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU
Losable games: UT

8. 7-9

MU (5-7) Projected L’s: at BU, at OU
Losable games: None

NU (5-7) Projected L’s: at OSU, at UT
Losable games: None

OSU (5-7) Projected L’s: at MU, at UT
Losable games: None

11. 4-12

ISU (4-8) Projected L’s: KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: None

12. 3.5-12.5

CU (2-10) Projected L’s: at ksu, at NU
Losable games: BU

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

MONDAY

1. UT at k-state (8:00p.m.)****

k-state holds KU’s dreams of a 51st conference title in its purple hands. As the Wicked Witch of the West would say, “What a world. What a world.”

Projected W: k-state

TUESDAY

2. Okie St at Mizzou (8:00p.m.)***

Okie St is playing well for a Tier Two Team. They are, however, 1-19 in their last 20 Road games. They did beat A&M in College Station last week, but that feat is so easy even a Cave—errrrrr–Cornhusker can do it.

Projected W: MU

WEDNESDAY

3. KU at Iowa St (6:00p.m.)***

ISU is no slouch at Hilton, despite blowing a game that was in the proverbial bag against UT. They are probably as good in Hilton as Okie St is in GIA. Bad news for KU? Maybe. Then again, another opportunity for the Jayhawks to display or develop some Road mettle.

Projected W: KU

4. OU at NU (7:00p.m.)***

Can the Huskers continue their winning ways vs. the Griffin Gang?

Projected W: NU

5. Tech at A&M (7:00p.m.)**1/2

A simply horrible Road team vs. what has recently been a simply horrible Home team. Movable Object meet Resistable Force.

Projected W: A&M

6. Baylor at CU (7:30p.m.)****

A critical game for Baylor’s NCAA chances.

Projected W: None

–Mark

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REAL Standings: Lincoln Celebrates President’s Day Edition

posted by Mark on 2/21/2008 -

Kansas Basketball

MIDWEEK RECAP

Once again, for anyone who still doesn’t understand the difference between a Home game and a Road game, and you know who you are, Kerkhoff, the premise of the REAL Standings was validated Wednesday night as Nebraska took out k-state in Lincoln. This, in spite of the fact that k-state had earlier toyed with the Huskers in Manhattan as if they were a junior high team, and despite the fact that, although this game had been listed as a Losable game for k-state for weeks, it was re-characterized as a Projected W just four days ago because of NU’s demotion to Tier Three status. That was apparently a bit hasty, because either NU is a Tier Two team or k-state is. Or both.

Further evidence of the significance of the Home court came in Austin, as UT dismantled the same A&M team that had taken them apart in College Station.

The bottom line, however, is that UT’s Home victory was a non-event in the REAL Standings, as are all Home victories by Tier One Teams.

k-state’s loss, on the other hand, cost it a full game in the RSP. Should they lose their Losable game in Waco this weekend, the k-staters might find themselves in a fight for a first round bye in the conference tourney. And, even worse, they will be at risk of losing their status as a Tier One Team in the REAL Standings.

In other news, Tech picked up ½ game with its Road victory at Colorado vs. a team that is beginning to make the Ricardo Patton era look like the Golden Age of Buffalo Basketball.

And OU’s Projected Home W over Baylor, while a non-event for purposes of the REAL Standings, was easily the most exciting game of the week, even though requiring direct aid from the Bears, who have done more choking in the last week than Boris Karloff in the Body Snatcher.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/21/08

Note: The current breakdown of teams into tiers, which is the only subjective aspect of the REAL Standings is:

Tier One: KU, k-state, UT
Tier Two: Baylor, Mizzou, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Tier Three: CU, ISU

1. 13-3

KU (9-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12.5-3.5

UT (9-2) Projected L’s: at ksu
Losable games: at TT

3. 11.5-4.5

k-state (8-3) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at BU

4. 8.5-7.5

A&M (6-5) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

5. 8-8

Baylor (5-6) Projected L’s: at TT
Losable games: k-state, at CU

OU (6-5) Projected L’s: at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: None

7. 7.5-8.5

Tech (5-6) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU
Losable games: UT

8. 7-9

MU (4-7) Projected L’s: at BU, at OU
Losable games: None

9. 6.5-9.5

OSU (4-7) Projected L’s: at MU, at UT
Losable games: KU

10. 6-10

NU (4-7) Projected L’s: at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: None

11. 4-12

ISU (4-7) Projected L’s: at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: None

12. 3.5-12.5

CU (2-9) Projected L’s: at MU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: BU

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

SATURDAY

1. Iowa St at Tech (12:30p.m.)*1/2

What can you say? It’s on the schedule. It has to be played.

Projected W: Tech

2. OU at UT (2:30p.m.)***1/2

Let’s listen in on a conversation between Rick Barnes and that guy from Duke (remind me to call Dickie V for his name) who coaches OU, as to which team should be named LTOY:

Barnes: We’re the luckiest team in the conference. We got to play you guys in Norman when Longar was hurt.

TGFD: No. We are the luckiest team in the country. We hit a fluke 30 footer in the final two seconds to win in Lubbock.

Barnes: But we are the luckiest team in the world. Baylor was 1 for 17 from three point land for the entire first half when we played them in Waco.

TGFD: Disagree. We are the luckiest team in this solar system. Aaron Bruce fouled our shooter as he was making a three point shot with eight seconds left in the game. Went from down 3 to 1 up just like that.

Barnes: Child’s play. We are the luckiest team in the Milky Way Galaxy. Bruce called a time out against us that he didn’t have.

TGFD: I can top that, because we are the luckiest team in the universe. Baylor’s best player, Curtis Jerrells, missed two free throws with one second left in the game.

Barnes: Give me a break. We are the luckiest team in this dimension. We get to play you with Longar back in the lineup at HOME!

TGFD: You win.

Projected W: UT

3. KU at Okie St (3:00p.m.)****

A Losable game for the Hawks. Even more Losable than previously anticipated with Okie St gathering momentum from recent victories over Baylor at Home and A&M on the Road. A W here gives KU a full game lead over UT in the REAL Standings, a matter of utmost importance, taking into account that UT has the tie-breaker vs. the Jayhawks for the No. 1 seed in the conference tourney by virtue of their victory when the teams played in Austin.

Projected W: None

4. NU at A&M (3:00p.m.)*

Don’t you have a lawn to mow or something?

Projected W: A&M

5. CU at Mizzou (7:00p.m.)*

Or a house to paint?

Projected W: Mizzou

6. k-state at Baylor (7:00p.m.)****

Monster game for k-state. Lose this, and they are history. The Bears, meanwhile, are just as desperate. They have lost six of their last seven and need this game to avoid bubble status. Unfortunately, they are the chokiest chokers that ever choked. What new way will they invent to avoid winning on this occasion? Whatever way they choose, they need to patent it so no one else can use it without written authorization.

Projected W: None

–Mark

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REAL Standings: Superbad Edition

posted by Mark on 2/16/2008 -

WEEKEND RECAP

Counterintuitively to those who slavishly follow the Uninformed Standings, KU followed up its positive Midweek (despite losing) with a Superbad Weekend (despite winning). And knowledgeable Jayhawk fans are not McLovin it.

Although your local newspaper will make it appear that the Jayhawks treaded water vis-a vis k-state and UT, the REAL Standings reveal the truth: UT’s victory over Baylor, which had been a Projected L, allowed it to pick up a full game in the RSP. UT now trails KU by a mere ½ game.

k-state also picked up a full game, albeit by a different route. Their Projected W over Mizzou in Manhattan, like KU’s routine victory over Colorado, was a non-event for purposes of the Real Standings. However, their remaining schedule suddenly looks a full game easier as both Baylor and Nebraska have proven unworthy of their former status as Tier One and Tier Two Teams respectively—resulting in the Baylor game moving from the Projected L column to being merely a Losable game, and NU moving from the Losable column to a Projected W. Each move benefits k-state to the extent of ½ game, meaning k-state, along with UT, is now within a half game of the Jayhawks.

Don’t look now, but what this means is that KU fans may become Beasley, Walker and Co.’s most ardent supporters on Big Monday a week hence when they take on UT. Otherwise, barring an unexpected L by UT to A&M at Home or tech in Lubbock, the Jayhawks may need to win out just to tie for the Big 12 title and claim the No. 2 seed in the conference tourney.

In news from the nether regions, OU remained in the conversation for the fourth bye in the Big 12 tourney as it picked up a full game in the RSP with a fluke heave from Plainview in the final two seconds at Tech.

Okie St, meanwhile, proved itself to be a legitimate Tier Two Team by following up its Home Win vs. Baylor (a Tier One team at the time) with its first Road W in two years at the expense of A&M, for a combined 1½ game move up the REAL Standings ladder.

Nebraska, on the other hand, went the other way, dropping 1½ games in the RSP by losing to Tier Two Mizzou at Home and Tier Three ISU in Ames—and, in the process, dropping in rank to the Tier 3 itself.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/17/08

1. 13-3

KU (9-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12.5-3.5

UT (8-2) Projected L’s: at ksu
Losable games: at TT

k-state (8-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at BU

4. 8.5-7.5

A&M (5-4) Projected L’s: at UT, at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

OU (5-5) Projected L’s: at UT, at OSU
Losable games: at NU

6. 8-8

Baylor (4-5) Projected L’s: at OU, at TT
Losable games: k-state, at CU

7. 7-9

MU (4-7) Projected L’s: at BU, at OU
Losable games: N.A.

Tech (4-6) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU
Losable games: at CU, UT

9. 6.5-9.5

OSU (4-7) Projected L’s: at MU, at UT
Losable games: KU

10. 4.5-11.5

NU (3-7) Projected L’s: ksu, at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: OU

11. 4-12

ISU (4-7) Projected L’s: at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: N/A

CU (2-8) Projected L’s: at at MU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: TT, BU

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekday Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

MONDAY

1. A&M at UT (8:00p.m.)****

The game in College Station was never in doubt, as the Aggies controlled the contest from start to finish. We’ll see how much difference home cooking makes to UT.

Projected W: UT

TUESDAY

2. Baylor at OU (7:00p.m.)****

After the 5 OT game at A&M, it looked like Baylor had arrived as a player in the Big 12. Their choke job Saturday at Home vs. UT proved otherwise. 1-17 from three point range in the first half? Are you kidding me? To paraphrase Dickie V, a word having something to do with a diaper would be appropriate, but it would not be “dandy.”

Projected W: OU

WEDNESDAY

3. Texas Tech at CU (7:00p.m.)*1/2

The worst tem in the league vs. the worst Road team in the league. Won’t be a “good” game, but it could be close.

Projected W: None

4. k-state at NU (8:00p.m.)**

This game had been slated as a Losable game for k-state prior to Saturday. The Cornhuskers are devoid of good wins during the conference season, and there is no reason to believe that this will change Wednesday night—even vs. a team that has already lost on the Road to Mizzou and become Pat Knight’s first and only victim as a head coach.

Projected W: k-state

–Mark

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REAL Standings: A Half Step Closer

posted by Mark on 2/15/2008 -

MIDWEEK RECAP

Again, for two days, my ears were subjected to the nonsensical assertion that k-state was in first place in the Big 12—that KU had somehow fallen out of the lead just because they lost a game they were projected to lose in the REAL Standings.

I pity the fool who gives any mind to the UNreal—or should I say Uninformed—Standings found in your local newspaper.

In REALity, KU moved closer to capturing its 51st conference championship during this midweek session of games, by virtue of k-state’s losable game loss to Texas Tech, which caused the purple gang to drop ½ game further behind the Jayhawks in the REAL Standings. KU’s REAL Standings record remained 13-3, because the L the Jayhawks took in Austin had already been debited against their account. The Hawks did miss an opportunity to virtually end the conference race by picking up a full game in the REAL Standings. But what fun would that be? Then there would be little reason for me to engage in this exercise, other than keeping track of the team most likely to grab the fourth first round bye in the conference tourney.

The biggest midweek winner is Mizzou, picking up a full game in the REAL Standings with its OT victory at Nebraska, a game that was a projected L for the Tigers. This avenged Mizzou’s earlier loss in a projected W game to NU in Columbia.

Other midweek winners, picking up ½ game in the RSP, are, of course, Tech, as well as Okie St, with its victory over a One Tier Higher team (Baylor) in Stillwater. The latter game raises the issue of whether Baylor should retain its status as a Tier One Team. Let’s just say that the Bears are on double secret probation. (Although, in its favor, BU has no Road games remaining on its schedule at any contender’s venue.)

OU’s victory over Iowa St in Norman, being a projected W for the Sooners, was, like the UT/KU game, a non-event in the REAL world.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/15/08

1. 13-3

KU (8-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 11.5-4.5

k-state (7-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU
Losable games: at NU

UT (7-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at ksu
Losable games: at TT

4. 11-5

Baylor (4-4) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OU, at TT

5. 9.5-6.5

A&M (5-3) Projected L’s: at UT, at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

6. 7.5-8.5

Tech (4-5) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU
Losable games: at CU, UT, BU

7. 7-9

MU (4-6) Projected L’s: at ksu, at BU, at OU
Losable games: N.A.

8. 6.5-9.5

OU (4-5) Projected L’s: at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: BU

9. 6-10

NU (3-6) Projected L’s: at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, ksu

10. 5.5-10.5

OSU (3-7) Projected L’s: at A&M, at MU, at UT
Losable games: KU

11. 3.5-12.5

ISU (3-7) Projected L’s: at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: NU

CU (2-7) Projected L’s: at KU, at MU, BU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: TT

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

SATURDAY

1. CU at KU (12:30p.m.)*

For the second time this season, CU catches the Jayhawks coming off a loss. In fact, no one else has had this distinction even once. The first time, CU put up a fight for 30 minutes. This game, however, is in Lawrence vs. a team whose manhood has been questioned not only by fans and sportswriters, but by its own coach. And it is Hoops reunion weekend in Lawrence, including a celebration of the 1988 NCAA champions. The halftime festivities should be more interesting than the actual game.

Projected W: KU

2. Okie St at A&M (2:00p.m.)**1/2

Okie St got a nice Home victory for a Tier Two Team Wednesday night vs. Baylor. Will it ever take its act on the Road?

Projected W: A&M

3. NU at ISU (3:00p.m.)*1/2

Two teams going nowhere. Iowa St is watchable in Hilton Coliseum.

Projected W: None

4. OU at Tech (3:00p.m.)***

Nice Tier Two matchup with Longar Longar back in the lineup for OU OU.

Projected W: Tech

5. Mizzou at k-state (5:00p.m.)***

Let’s see if k-state is any good at playing the revenge card. Even so, Mizzou, having nothing to lose, might make this a ball game.

Projected W: k-state

6. UT at Baylor (5:00p.m.)****

An Opportunity Game for UT. A W here, and they move past k-state and to within ½ game of the Jayhawks in the REAL Standings. On the other side of the coin, a Baylor loss places them in jeopardy of losing their edge over A&M for a Thursday bye in the Big 12 tournament.

Projected W: Baylor

–Mark

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REAL Standings: Live Music Capital Edition. . .

posted by Mark on 2/9/2008 -

WEEKEND RECAP

A&M continues its quest to re-establish itself as a Top Tier Team in the Big 12. Winning in Columbia—a task UT and k-state were unable to accomplish—is a nice feather in the Aggie helmet, to the extent of ½ game in the REAL Standings. There may, indeed, be five high quality teams in the Big XII. How many conferences can say that?

Before Longar Longar went down, it looked like there might be six. But losing at Home on Monday to UT and in Boulder on Saturday cost OU a full game in the REAL Standings Projections. Meanwhile, the victory by the Buffs over the Sooners moved CU up ½ game and into a flat-footed tie with 11th place Iowa St. A Road W by either CU or ISU vs. a Tier Two team would separate one from the other and be cause for serious consideration of an upgrade to Tier Two.

The other four games went as projected, with KU, k-state, and Nebraska holding their serve at Home vs. visiting Baylor, Okie St, and Tech. UT was fortunate to win in OT at Two Tier Lower ISU, but they did win. No harm done to their REAL Standings’ standing or their hopes for a conference championship.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/10/08

1. 13-3

KU (8-1) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12-4

k-state (7-1) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU
Losable games: at TT, at NU

3. 11.5-4.5

Baylor (4-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at TT

UT (6-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at ksu
Losable games: at TT

5. 9.5-6.5

A&M (5-3) Projected L’s: at UT, at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

6. 7-9

NU (3-5) Projected L’s: at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, ksu

Tech (3-5) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU
Losable games: ksu, at CU, UT, BU

8. 6.5-9.5

OU (3-5) Projected L’s: at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: BU

9. 6-10

MU (3-6) Projected L’s: at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU
Losable games: N.A.

10. 5-11

OSU (2-7) Projected L’s: at A&M, at MU, at UT
Losable games: Baylor, KU

11. 3.5-12.5

ISU (3-6) Projected L’s: at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: NU

CU (2-7) Projected L’s: at KU, at MU, BU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: TT

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekday Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

MONDAY

1. KU at UT (8:00p.m.)****

Monday night, the Live Music Capital of the World becomes the Live Basketball Capital. UT is the rest of the contenders’ Great Orange Hope. Lose, and not only can they forget about the Big XII title, everyone else is on life support.

Projected W: UT

WEDNESDAY

2. Baylor at Okie St (7:00p.m.)**

Okie St needs to do something—anything—to show that they are justly categorized as a second tier team.

Projected W: None

3. ISU at OU (7:30p.m.)*1/2

ISU had UT on the ropes Saturday in Ames. With OU reeling from Longar Longar’s unfortunate unfortunate injury imjury, this is the Cyclones’ opportunity to earn a battlefield promotion to Tier Two.

Projected W: OU

4. Mizzou at NU (7:00p.m.)**

The players’ families will be watching this game closely. They pretty much have to.

Projected W: NU

5. k-state at Tech (8:00p.m.)***

Pat Knight tries again to pull within 901 wins of his dad. Not to mention 16 of Frank Martin. Heady stuff, indeed.

Projected W: None

–Mark

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REAL Standigns: Midway Edition

posted by Mark on 2/6/2008 -

MIDWEEK RECAP

The mid-season doldrums struck with a vengeance this week (even though that is not the normal nature of doldrums). Three of the top four teams in the REAL Standings won handily in their Home courts. No story there.

Okie St protected its Home court vs. the Colorado Woefulloes. Nothing noteworthy in that.

The only minor changes in the REAL Standings came with UT and A&M pulling out Road victories vs. One Tier Lower Teams OU and Iowa St respectively. UT’s win, however, came with Longar Longar on the bench the bench, taking some of the luster off what would otherwise be an impressive achievement.

Still, impressive or not, UT picked up ½ game in the REAL Standings and remained a viable contender in the championship race—especially with their only game vs. KU being in Austin. A&M’s ½ game pickup kept the Aggies in contention for one of the four first round byes in the conference tournament.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/7/08

1. 13-3

KU (7-1) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12-4

k-state (6-1) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU
Losable games: at TT, at NU

3. 11.5-4.5

Baylor (4-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at TT

4. 11.5-4.5

UT (5-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at ksu
Losable games: at TT

5. 8.5-7.5

A&M (4-3) Projected L’s: at MU, at UT, at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

6. 7-9

OU (3-4) Projected L’s: at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: at CU, BU

NU (2-5) Projected L’s: at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, ksu

Tech (3-4) Projected L’s: at NU, at A&M, at KU
Losable games: ksu, at CU, UT, BU

MU (3-5) Projected L’s: at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU
Losable games: N.A.

10. 5-11

OSU (2-6) Projected L’s: at ksu, at A&M, at MU, at UT
Losable games: Baylor, KU

11. 3.5-12.5

ISU (3-5) Projected L’s: UT, at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: NU

12. 3-13

CU (1-7) Projected L’s: at KU, at MU, BU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: OU, TT

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

SATURDAY

1. A&M at Mizzou (12:30p.m.)***1/2

Mizzou has already taken down UT and k-state in Columbia. A&M looks for its biggest win of the season to catapult it back into consideration as a Tier One team.

Projected W: Mizzou

2. OU at CU (2:00p.m.)**

If CU comes to play as focused as it did last Saturday against KU, it could be crying time for the Sooners.

Projected W: None

3. UT at ISU (2:30p.m.)*1/2

UT is starting to gel. Iowa St will have to step up its game at least two notches to pull the upset here. Is there any Magic remaining in Hilton, or does that require magical players?

Projected W: UT

4. Tech at Nebraska (5:00p.m.)**

A win here, and Pat Knight is a mere 901 W’s behind his dad.

Projected W: NU

5. Okie St at k-state (7:00p.m.)*1/2

Move along, folks. Nothing to see here.

Projected W: k-state

6. Baylor at KU (7:00p.m.)***1/2

Baylor’s opportunity to make a name for itself and become the second Big 12 South team to win in AFH.

Projected W: KU

–Mark

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REAL Standings: The Let’s get REAL Edition

posted by Mark on 2/3/2008 -

WEEKEND RECAP

For three days, I kept hearing and reading lies: that k-state was atop the Big 12 standings.

Those who bothered to take the short trip to phogblog.com knew better. KU was still in first place in the REAL Big 12 Standings, where winning any Home game does not improve your lot, nor does losing a Road game to a team in your peer group damage your position—with the exception of when it comes at the hands of an opponent from the other division, and you do not get the opportunity to even the score on your Home court.

Repeat the REAL Standings mantra after me: You prove yourself on the Road. You win championships on the Road. All you can do at Home is stay alive.

In the REAL world, k-state had simply managed to tread water Wednesday night in Manhattan, no matter how history views their first W in 25 tries exploits. They remained where they were prior to that game REAL Standings-wise: ½ game behind the Jayhawks.

However, k-state had a chance to move into a flat-footed tie with KU Saturday. All they had to do to make up that ½ game was win at Columbia. KU, playing Two Tier Lower Colorado in Boulder could not make any headway in the REAL Standings—this was a game they were projected to win. k-state’s game, on the other hand, being at One Tier Lower Mizzou, was a losable game, meaning they could gain ½ game with a Road victory.

Of course, it also meant k-state could lose ½ game and fall a full game behind the Hawks in the REAL Standings.

The latter happened. Meaning that KU is now more firmly in control of the Big 12 race than it was before going to Manhattan.

All other games this weekend went as projected: UT, Tech, NU, and A&M all prevailed at Home vs. Baylor, Okie St, Iowa St, and OU respectively. No change in the REAL Standings for any of these eight teams. Only k-state and Mizzou made any movement, which was inevitable under the REAL Standings formula.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/3/08

1. 13-3

KU (6-1) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12-4

k-state (5-1) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU
Losable games: at TT, at NU

3. 11.5-4.5

Baylor (4-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at TT

4. 11-5

UT (4-2) Projected L: at BU, at ksu
Losable games: at OU, at TT

5. 8-8

A&M (4-3) Projected L: at MU, at UT, at OU, at BU
Losable games: at ISU, KU

6. 7.5-8.5

OU (3-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: UT, at CU, BU

7. 7-9

NU (2-4) Projected L’s: at ksu, at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, ksu

Tech (3-3) Projected L’s: at BU, at NU, at A&M, at KU
Losable games: ksu, at CU, UT, BU

MU (3-4) Projected L’s: at KU, at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU
Losable games: N.A.

10. 5-11

OSU (1-6) Projected L’s: at ksu, at A&M, at MU, at UT
Losable games: Baylor, KU

11. 4-12

ISU (3-4) Projected L’s: UT, at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: A&M, NU

12. 3-13

CU (1-6) Projected L’s: at OSU, at KU, at MU, BU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: OU, TT

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekday Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

MONDAY

1. Mizzou at KU (8:00p.m.)***1/2

Doesn’t look like much on paper. But, hey, it’s Kansas v. Missouri. You can bet that Mizzou will bring it for 40 minutes.

Projected W: KU

TUESDAY

2. A&M at Iowa St (7:00p.m.)***

Iowa St is a Level Three Team, but has shown that it is a tough out in Ames. The Aggies, trying to work their way back to the Top Tier after lsong to Baylor at Home and being blown out on the Road by Tech and k-state, better come prepared with an antidote for Hilton Magic or their newly-regained prowess could be history.

Projected W: None

WEDNESDAY

3. UT at OU (6:00p.m.)****

UT takes to the Road again to play another arch-rival. And fighting for survival in the championship race. They can’t afford a third Road loss to a Tier Two Team. Should be the game of the week.

Projected W: None

4. Colorado at Okie St (7:00p.m.)*1/2

A rare chance for a Buffalo Road victory. If they play like they did in Austin, Okie St will be in for a battle.

Projected W: OSU

5. NU at k-state (7:00p.m.)**1/2

NU goes for three in a row. Unfortunately, this game is not at Home (a la ISU), against a Level Three Team (ISU), or vs. a suspension depleted team (Mizzou). It is against a team that has shown that it can play well at Home.

Projected W: k-state

6. Tech at Baylor (7:00p.m.)**1/2

If Tech plays like it has on the Road all season, this one will be a laugher at Bobby Knight’s expense.

Projected W: Baylor

–Mark

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