Imagine, if you will, that the U.S. Government had the foresight four weeks ago to invest 750 billion dollars each week on the Phogblog Handicapping Service’s “Take it to the Bank” picks: that’s 50B per game.

At this moment, after 60 games–discarding the three games that have been pushes and the Texas/Arkansas game that was postponed due to Hurricane Ike—and taking into account the House’s 5% commission on each bet, the USA would have a 36-20 record and be up 660 billion dollars. That’s almost enough to bail out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman, Merrill, and AIG, without risking the taxpayer’s hard earned dollars.

But nooooooooo. . .

Let’s risk the taxpayers’ money on risky ventures like investments banks, financial firms, and insurance companies.

Let’s see if either presidential candidate is insightful enough to propose this solution to the current financial crisis. Whoever does is truly thinking outside the traditional Washington/Wall Street box—a maverick, if you will—and is worthy of your vote.

Please, no comments that this theory is flawed, because Vegas would not be able to withstand almost seven hundred billion dollars in losses in four weeks. No worries. The government simply buys every casino in Vegas with the money it wins in the succeeding four weeks. And with the government running all the casinos, we might even be looking at middle class tax breaks. A win-win if ever there was one.

How unfortunate that these picks are for entertainment purposes only.

The Games of week 5:

1. TCU +17.5 at Oklahoma

I’m riding the Sooner Schooner until OU gives me a reason to do otherwise.

OU

2. Colorado +5.5 at Florida St

The Seminoles have given me no reason to suspect that they are a good team. I took Wake Forest +4 last week, and the Deamon Deacons won convincingly in Tallahassee. Meanwhile, Colorado was taking down West Virginia in Boulder. This week, CU gets 5.5 points. Easy pick, right?

Right. FSU ridin’ the Redemption Train.

FLORIDA ST

3. Troy +17 at Okie St

Troy lost on the Road last Saturday by 18 to Ohio St. This OSU is better.

OKIE ST

4. La-Lafayette +21 at k-state

k-state has been exposed. They are probably good enough to win this game at Home. But by 3 TD’s? Not bloody likely.

ULL

5. Arkansas +27.5 at Texas

Texas is on a mission. Lesser teams beware. I took UT -24 two weeks ago, when this game was postponed. The extra 3 ½ points are not a deal breaker.

6. Army +28.5 at Texas A&M

It is not as if A&M is good. But, good grief, is Army ever bad. . .

TEXAS A&M

7. Pitt -15 at Syracuse

There are two teams I like every week: Oklahoma and whoever is playing Syracuse.

PITT

8. UNC +7.5 at Miami

Slowly, but surely, UNC is improving. Miami is improving faster.

MIAMI

9. Ole Miss +23.5 at Florida

What part of Tim Tebow and The Swamp don’t you understand?

FLORIDA

10. Minnesota +18 at Ohio St

Ohio St: the most overrated team in the nation three years running.

MINNESOTA

11. Alabama +7 at Georgia

The Crimson Tide would win this game outright at Home. They won’t go down easy between the hedges.

ALABAMA

12. Wisconsin -6 at Michigan

Michigan will be good again in time. The key phrase being “in time.”

WISCONSIN

13. Fresno St -7 at UCLA

Fret not, UCLA fans. October 15 is just around the corner.

FRESNO ST

14. Illinois +14 at Penn St

Vegas still hasn’t caught on to Penn St—they are this year’s KU.

PENN ST

15. Idaho +11 at San Diego St

Did I say OU and whoever’s playing Syracuse? Make that Syracuse OR Idaho.

SAN DIEGO ST

–Mark

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Vegas is fast becoming a party pooper. After two weeks of lines so flimsy that David Patterson could see through them, the oddsmakers present us with a number of legitimate point spreads in week 4.

Still, the PhogBlog Handicapping Service stands unfazed by this challenge. In fact, we welcome it. We scoff at Vegas as if it were the illegitimate child of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and had brothers named Lehman, Merrill and Iggy.

You might notice that the KU scrimmage vs. Sam Houston State is not included in this week’s picks. In the past, when there has been no official line on a KU game, I have devised a reasonable one to ensure having the KU game in the mix. This week, though, there is no reasonable line. This is truly a name the score game. What kind of line would make sense: 35? 42? 50? 60? Whatever the Big M wants, he will get. And I don’t claim to be a mind reader. Ergo,

The Jayhawk-less Games of Week 4:

1. Miami (Fl) -4 at Texas A&M

The team that cost Franchione his job takes on A&M again—this time in College Station. When I mentioned that there were a number of legitimate lines this week, I didn’t mean they all were. . .

2. Rice +30.5 at Texas

The thing is, we don’t usually do 30+ point games. But here’s what happened: This spread is so seductive, I made an exception. You’ll thank me later.

UT

3. Iowa St +3 at UNLV

Iowa St is on the way to being a respectable team. Do away with a few correctable mistakes, and they are in last Saturday’s game at Iowa to the bitter end. Unfortunately, the end was still bitter. I might be a wee bit apprehensive about them when the Hawks visit Ames two weeks hence. But I don’t see them as ready to win on the Road yet.

UNLV

4. Temple +28.5 at Penn St

Like I said, not ALL of the lines are legit. Vegas has yet to wise up to the rising juggernaut in State College.

PENN ST

5. Ohio +11 at Northwestern

Don’t be fooled by Ohio playing their in-state rivals tough in Columbus. If the Buckeyes have not been exposed by now, what will it take? They were last year, and still are, KU-lite.

NORTHWESTERN

6. LSU -3 at Auburn

Ouch, Vegas. I REALly prefer easy lines. I am reluctant to go against Auburn as a Home dog, but until they can pull a Mizzou and Show Me they can win a game of this magnitude, what choice do I have?

LSU

7. Alabama -9 at Arkansas

Maybe Vegas just has an SEC thing. The Crimson Tide should roll over the dismal Hogs. But Arkansas, even when bad, has a penchant for not rolling over at Home.

ALABAMA

8. Va Tech +1.5 at UNC

Is UNC developing into a team that Psycho T can be proud of? Or is Rutgers just that bad? I will go with the Home team in the shadow of the Roy Dome.

UNC

9. Wake Forest +4 at Florida St

Three years into the Demon Deacons’ resurgence (or insurgence as the case may be), Vegas has still yet to Wake up. You might say, they can’t see the Forest for the trees. W.F. might not beat FSU, but they are hard-nosed competitors. This game will not get out of hand.

WAKE

10. Notre Dame +8.5 at Michigan St

The Fighting Irish are taking baby steps toward becoming the Fighting Irish again. Staying within a TD in East Lansing is the next step.

NOTRE DAME

11. Wyoming +29 at BYU

I had to pass on Boise St +11.5 at Oregon and AU +2 t UCLA to make room for this game. But there are enough difficult lines this week. So let’s do the game that makes you scratch your head and say, “Helloooooooooo! Earth to Vegas: Anybody home? You do realize that this game is in Provo, not Laramie, don’t you? You’re aware that last weekend, BYU hung 59 on the team that took out Tennessee in Week 1? That they don’t stop scoring just because they get ahead by four TD’s or so? You have been paying attention. Or have you?

BYU

12. Utah -7 at Air Force

Oops. Don’t tell anyone, but this is another Vegas faux pas. (That rhymes with Joe Pa for you k-staters).

UTAH

13. Idaho +4.5 at Utah St

This is what ABC wanted USC/Ohio St to be. The top two teams in the country going at each other.

Bizarro ABC that is.

That said, why would one expect one of the two worst teams in Division 1 to stay within 5 points of anyone on the Road? Even the other?

If it were but on a neutral field—say a blue field in Boise—this would be a classic.

UTAH ST

14. Florida -7.5 at Tennessee

Somebody check Vegas’s meds. Its bipolar pills are not working. It vacillates between happy-go-lucky, devil may care, what-me-worry spreads to ones—like this—that are absolutely diabolical. If my only concern were finding the easiest games to pick, this one would find its way to the cutting room floor. But without a few challenges, it would be no fun, right? Gotta believe that the Vols can stay within a TD of almost anyone at Home. That extra ½ point is the difference-maker.

TENNESSEE

15. Georgia -6.5 at Arizona St

Another sick line. Wouldn’t be if Georgia had thus far resembled the Pretend National Championship contender it was reputed to be ever since dispensing of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl. But the Bulldogs have not yet looked like a team that can go on the Road and take out a competitive BCS conference team by a full TD. Or is ASU a competitive BCS team? Sure didn’t look like one last Saturday vs. UNLV. Or were the Sun Devils caught looking ahead? A lot of unanswered questions make this a tough game to figure. I will take UGA to wear ASU down and pull out to a two score lead in the waning moments.

GEORGIA

–Mark

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Friday Night Lights. First Big Game of the Season. Without further ado:

The Games of Week 3:

FRIDAY:

1. KU +3.5 at South Florida

Before the start of the season, I anticipated that the spread in this game would be KU-2.5. That was before I saw the state of our running game. Through two games, both at Home, the offensive line has not opened holes against vastly inferior teams. What will it do against a legitimate BCS conference team—one ranked in the Top 20? I am not inclined to believe that the Hawks have been sandbagging the running game in order to deceive USF into thinking that our O-Line is our Achilles heel.

Could be that the running game will suddenly come around Friday night. But that’s not the way to bet.

So, running game aside, is it enough that the Jayhawks’ passing game might be the best in the nation? Especially with our D fast coming together, meaning the game will never get out of hand.

Two years ago, Grothe was impressive as a freshman in Lawrence. Almost pulled out a USF W in the game’s waning seconds. I compared him at the time to our own freshman QB, red-shirting (at the time) TD Todd. Two years later, I am still high on Grothe. As good as our own QB is, I don’t think this position will decide the game.

What will decide the game is the Jayhawks’ maturity. Take last years’ Orange Bowl champions and place them in the Buccaneers’ stadium this Friday evening, and they carry the day. But this is a new team, with its own personality, despite having much of last year’s nucleus.

Tough call. KU is the better team. But USF will be sky high. It is the biggest game in the program’s history. A chance to establish its brand. The Bulls will neither give up nor let up. The Hawks had better bring their A game and lots and lots of poise.

They will. It is, after all, a chance for KU to take another step in establishing its own football brand. Which makes the game a tossup. Quite likely decided by a Field Goal or less.

Meaning that getting ½ point more than a Field Goal is a good bet:

KU

SATURDAY:

2. Nevada +26.5 at Mizzou

Nevada stayed within 17 of a similar team (Texas Tech) last week.

They are in for a rude awakening when they leave Reno and play a Top 10 team on the Road.

MIZZOU

3. Iowa St +13.5 at Iowa

Iowa is looking for revenge after last year’s loss in Ames. And they might well get it.

But not by two TD’s. Iowa St is not a spectacular team, but they are solid and becoming solider by the week.

IOWA ST

4. Oklahoma -20.5 at Washington

The Huskies looked competitive last week in almost taking out BYU at Home.

However, OU is not BYU. Norman is not Seattle.

OU

5. Arkansas +24 at Texas

Don’t sleep on Arkansas. They are 2-0, having dispatched Western Illinois 28-24 and powerhouse La. Monroe 28-27.

UT might not be able to name the score as it has vs. its first two opponents (52-10 and 42-13), but they will hold the Razorbacks under 28 (let’s say 10 or under) and score 35 (or more).

TEXAS

6. Washington St -2 at Baylor

This is what they call being on the horns of a dilemma; between the Scylla and the Charibdas; or a rock and a hard place. Your only choices are Washington St to win on the Road or Baylor to stay within a point of a team from a BCS conference. As they say north of the border, “Diabolical, eh? “
I have a good friend in Houston who proclaims that he never picks Baylor. NEVER. (Although he did once.)

This week, that is good advice.

WSU

7. Navy +1.5 at Duke

Duke is for REAL—spreadwise, that is. Their skill level is running ahead of Vegas’s respect level by a good three points. Covered against Northwestern last Saturday–getting seven, losing by only four.

DUKE

8. UCLA +8.5 at BYU

UCLA’s first Road game under a new coach and with a new QB. Sounds like a disaster in the making.

BYU

9. Oregon -7.5 at Purdue

Nice job on this one, Vegas. Taking Purdue down by more than a TD in West Lafayette is a tough task, indeed. Oregon, though, is on an early season roll.

OREGON

10. Georgia -7 at South Carolina

If Georgia is truly deserving of their pre-season No. 1 ranking, they will cover this spread without breaking a sweat. And they are motivated, having already dropped behind another USC in the polls.

UGA

11. Penn St -27.5 at Syracuse

Already, the refrain can be heard in upstate New York: “Wait ‘til basketball season!”

PENN ST

12. Michigan -1 at Notre Dame

Fact or fiction proposition on a recent College Game Day Show: “Michigan will win more games than Notre Dame.” Could come down to this stinker. The Wolverines do what San Diego St could not: end N.D.’s dreams of an undefeated season.

MICHIGAN

13. Ohio St +10.5 at Southern Cal

I have no idea how many points it would take to entice me to take Ohio St in this game. This is not an early season showdown among two teams in serious contention for the pretend national championship. It is more like a bloodletting.

USC

14. Arizona -10 at New Mexico

AU is approaching respectability. I am not a believer, however, that they are ready to cover a double digit spread on the Road.

UNM

15. Utah -24.5 at Utah St

Utah took out Michigan in Ann Arbor. They should be able to name the score, even away from Home, against the worst or next to worst team in the country.

UTAH

–Mark

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It is that time of year when you can make a living outsmarting Vegas as the bookmakers feverishly attempt to adjust to the new season.

Or outsmart yourself.

One trend to watch is the success major conference teams had in Week 1 vs. teams from minor conferences. Case in Point: Major conference underdog (Alabama) routing minor conference opponent (Clemson). Or major conference team Kentucky taking out minor conference foe Louisville. Not to mention major conference team Mizzou covering against minor conference team Illinois. Or Colorado covering handily against in-state minor conference rival Colorado St. And, of course, Cal over Michigan St.

The only exception to this trend in Week 1’s Take it to the Bank picks was KU, which I don’t count, because the Hawks, 35 point favorites, would not have been involved in the week’s picks at all had they worn any other uniform.

The games of Week 2:

1. La Tech +21 at KU

This week’s KU opponent is a major step up from Fla International. La Tech has given major conference teams fit for years. Last week, they took out Mississippi St. Will the Jayhawks unleash the extent of their pent up fury after keeping a low profile in Week 1? Or will they continue to play it close to the vest in order to keep South Florida guessing? Tough call. But when in doubt, I take the team that was 12-1 against the spread last year:

KU

2. San Jose St +26 at Nebraska

Unlike the Monkees, I am not a believer in Nebraska in the second week of the BP era. However, I believe even less in San Jose St.

NU

3. Cincinnati +22 at Oklahoma

This would be a troublesome spread the Queen City. In Norman, what is Vegas thinking?

OU

4. Texas Tech -10 at Nevada

I have a good friend who is a Red Raider diehard. He is distressed already by their close call (49-24) against Eastern Washington. But, hey, EWU is a good FCS team (according to my Big Sky source). And you can’t put too

much stock in an opener against a no-name opponent.

TECH

5. Texas A&M -3 at New Mexico

A tough test for the major/minor conference theory. Especially considering that this is the first road game for A&M’s new coach. And having been in New Mexico earlier this week, I can attest to the fact that the Lobos are chomping at the bit to take down a flailing Big 12 team. Won’t surprise me if UNM wins this game outright. But what conference are they in this year?

A&M

6. Houston +16.5 at Okie St

Okie St even appears to be a good team from a major conference.

OKIE ST

7. Kent +7.5 at Iowa St

Iowa St might not yet be in the good category, but they are approaching respectability. As long as Baylor is in the Big 12, the Cyclones are not the worst team in the conference. In fact, they might even be better than a certain other Big 12 South team.

IOWA ST

8. Texas -26.5 at UTEP

Please, don’t throw me in that briar patch, Mr. Vegas man.

UT

9. Northwestern -6.5 at Duke

It IS at Duke. Unfortunately, in an outdoor stadium. Not Duke’s forte.

NORTHWESTERN

10. Miami (FL) +21 at Florida

Miami is trying to claw its way back into prominence. The operative word being “trying.”

FU

11. Oregon St +16.5 at Penn St

Gotta go with a major team in a minor conference in this case over the minor team in a major conference.

PENN ST

12. BYU -6.5 at Washington

Ditto Game No. 11.

BYU

13. Ole Miss +8 at Wake Forest

Another test of the conference theory. Don’t know that Ole Miss will take out Wake, but they should be able to cover this generous spread.

OLE MISS

14. South Florida -14 at Central Florida

Speaking of generous spreads–especially with USF looking ahead to the biggest game in its short history next Friday night..

UCF

15. Fla Int’l +27 at Iowa

If FIU can hang within 30 of a truly great team, why wouldn’t it stay within 20 of the Hawkeyes?

FIU

–Mark

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