Phog Blog » Take it to the Bank: Football Picks

Take it to the Bank: Football Picks–Week 2

posted by Mark on 9/4/2008 -

It is that time of year when you can make a living outsmarting Vegas as the bookmakers feverishly attempt to adjust to the new season.

Or outsmart yourself.

One trend to watch is the success major conference teams had in Week 1 vs. teams from minor conferences. Case in Point: Major conference underdog (Alabama) routing minor conference opponent (Clemson). Or major conference team Kentucky taking out minor conference foe Louisville. Not to mention major conference team Mizzou covering against minor conference team Illinois. Or Colorado covering handily against in-state minor conference rival Colorado St. And, of course, Cal over Michigan St.

The only exception to this trend in Week 1’s Take it to the Bank picks was KU, which I don’t count, because the Hawks, 35 point favorites, would not have been involved in the week’s picks at all had they worn any other uniform.

The games of Week 2:

1. La Tech +21 at KU

This week’s KU opponent is a major step up from Fla International. La Tech has given major conference teams fit for years. Last week, they took out Mississippi St. Will the Jayhawks unleash the extent of their pent up fury after keeping a low profile in Week 1? Or will they continue to play it close to the vest in order to keep South Florida guessing? Tough call. But when in doubt, I take the team that was 12-1 against the spread last year:

2. San Jose St +26 at Nebraska

Unlike the Monkees, I am not a believer in Nebraska in the second week of the BP era. However, I believe even less in San Jose St.

3. Cincinnati +22 at Oklahoma

This would be a troublesome spread the Queen City. In Norman, what is Vegas thinking?

4. Texas Tech -10 at Nevada

I have a good friend who is a Red Raider diehard. He is distressed already by their close call (49-24) against Eastern Washington. But, hey, EWU is a good FCS team (according to my Big Sky source). And you can’t put too

much stock in an opener against a no-name opponent.

TECH

5. Texas A&M -3 at New Mexico

A tough test for the major/minor conference theory. Especially considering that this is the first road game for A&M’s new coach. And having been in New Mexico earlier this week, I can attest to the fact that the Lobos are chomping at the bit to take down a flailing Big 12 team. Won’t surprise me if UNM wins this game outright. But what conference are they in this year?

A&M

6. Houston +16.5 at Okie St

Okie St even appears to be a good team from a major conference.

OKIE ST

7. Kent +7.5 at Iowa St

Iowa St might not yet be in the good category, but they are approaching respectability. As long as Baylor is in the Big 12, the Cyclones are not the worst team in the conference. In fact, they might even be better than a certain other Big 12 South team.

IOWA ST

8. Texas -26.5 at UTEP

Please, don’t throw me in that briar patch, Mr. Vegas man.

9. Northwestern -6.5 at Duke

It IS at Duke. Unfortunately, in an outdoor stadium. Not Duke’s forte.

NORTHWESTERN

10. Miami (FL) +21 at Florida

Miami is trying to claw its way back into prominence. The operative word being “trying.”

11. Oregon St +16.5 at Penn St

Gotta go with a major team in a minor conference in this case over the minor team in a major conference.

PENN ST

12. BYU -6.5 at Washington

Ditto Game No. 11.

BYU

13. Ole Miss +8 at Wake Forest

Another test of the conference theory. Don’t know that Ole Miss will take out Wake, but they should be able to cover this generous spread.

OLE MISS

14. South Florida -14 at Central Florida

Speaking of generous spreads–especially with USF looking ahead to the biggest game in its short history next Friday night..

UCF

15. Fla Int’l +27 at Iowa

If FIU can hang within 30 of a truly great team, why wouldn’t it stay within 20 of the Hawkeyes?

FIU

–Mark

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Take it to the Bank: Football Picks–Week 2

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