Phog Blog » Take it to the Bank: Week 6 Forecast

Take it to the Bank: Week 6 Forecast

posted by Mark on 10/1/2008 -

The Big 12 is going to the dogs.

Home dogs, that is.

The only Home favorite in the six Big 12 games this first week of conference play is Okie St, giving 24 ½ points to Texas A&M. In four other games, the Home team is a double digit underdog.

Evidently, Vegas has noted that taking the favored tem has been a winning proposition thus far this year, both in the Big 12 and elsewhere, and has adjusted accordingly. The big question, time and again this week, is whether it has over adjusted in the opposite direction.

The games of Week 6:

1. Kansas –13 at Iowa St

A major obstacle in making the transformation from being a traditionally mediocre or bad program to becoming a strong program in any sport is separating from your peers. Whereas your historical mediocrities like Iowa St, k-state, Colorado, Mizzou, and Baylor readily accept their inherent inferiority to the Oklahomas, Texases and Nebraskas of the world , they will clutch and scratch and claw and scrape to their final breath to avoid being left behind by a member of their peer group—as KU is threatening to do.

This game opened at KU -14. Thirteen is better. Still, this is a Road game vs. a team that is becoming more cohesive on a weekly basis. In its last outing, the Cyclones roared back from a 21 point deficit on the Road to send its game at UNLV into overtime, capped by a clutch 90+ yard drive in the final two minutes.

The Jayhawks are better than UNLV, no doubt. Good enough that they should beat Iowa St in Ames. But by 14 points?

Not likely, as sky-high as ISU will be, playing a Top 20 team at Home in its conference opener. Not unless the Hawks have greatly improved their pass rush and running game, probably not. It is certainly possible, what with two weeks to prepare for this game. But that is not the way to bet. I mean, as great as last year’s team was, who did they beat on the Road by 14? Well, there was Okie St 43-28. That’s it.

ISU

2. Texas Tech -7.5 at k-state

At first blush, this game looks like easy money. Tech is 14-17 points better than Prince’s Purple people on a neutral field. Right?

Right. Still, the Red Raiders had a tough time with Eastern Washington in Lubbock. Not to mention their propensity for pulling a cropper on the road. Or that k-state has handled a bigger name from the Lone Star State two years running.

Vegas is about two points off with this line. Should be Tech -9.5. Meaning that giving only 7.5 is value.

TEXAS TECH

3. Mizzou -11 at Nebraska

Ganz put up 70 last year vs. k-state. He could lead the Huskers to 40+ against Mizzou’s defense. And, playing a Top 5 team coming off a loss to Virginia Tech, the Huskers will be focused. Plus, if there is one thing tougher than separating from a peer, it is separating from a better, which is Mizzou’s task Still, Mizzou has the upper hand this year and two weeks to prepare. This will be a single digit game late in the fourth quarter. Last team to score covers the spread.

NEBRASKA

4. Oklahoma -27.5 at Baylor

Until the Sooners give me a reason to doubt them, I won’t.

5. Texas A&M +24.5 at Okie St

A is for Atrocious. M for Miserable.

OKIE ST

6. Texas -14 at Colorado

Another Home team on a mission, following the Buffs’ loss in Tallahassee last Saturday. Not to mention playing a Top 5 team. You can ask OU about being a Top 5 team playing in Boulder.

COLORADO

7. Penn St-13 at Purdue

See Oklahoma at Baylor.

PENN ST

8. UConn +7 at UNC

A Tar Heel let down, perhaps, after their big win in Miami? Or are they on a roll?

UNC

9. Stanford +7.5 at Notre Dame

Would you believe these two teams used to be good? Great even?

The Fighting Irish are closer to being there again. And at Home.

NOTRE DAME

10. Illinois +2.5 at Michigan

Despite their fluke win last week vs. Wisconsin, Michigan has a long way to go to stop sucking.

ILLINOIS

11. Florida -24.5 at Arkansas

Not that Michigan sucks as much as Arkansas.

FLORIDA

12. Washington St +17 at UCLA

Why would I expect UCLA to beat anyone by more than 17 points anywhere?

13. Ohio St -2.5 at Wisconsin

Two straight losses for Wisconsin? This one in Madison? In another day, when Ohio St was good.

WISCONSIN

14. Oregon +16.5 at USC

Hell hath no fury like a Trojan scorned.

USC

15. Hawaii +22.5 at Fresno St

There is trouble in paradise.

–Mark

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4 Responses to “Take it to the Bank: Week 6 Forecast”

dave31175 Says:
October 5th, 2008 at 7:24 am
I’m so happy how wrong you were about Missouri/Nebraska! I had been amazed Missouri was only favored by 10. Nebraska was unimpressive against all but one of its creampuffs. And Va Tech seemed very overrated, having been beaten by a barely mediocre E.Carolina team, and still not having beaten a team of substance.

Nonetheless you had me concerned. I thought perhaps I was overlooking something. As much as I hate, loathe, and despise Missouri, that’s nothing compared to how I feel against one of the most arrogant teams, and THE most arrogant fan base in the country.

Go Red Raiders!
Mark Says:
October 5th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I certainly overestimated the effect of the Home Field in the NU game. I was not deluded into thinking they were back, but I did think they would play tough defenidng their Home turf. Don’t know why you felt the need to talk about UT fans, though, in a comment about the Nebraska/Mizzou game.
dave31175 Says:
October 5th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
UT fans? Having lived in or near Nebraska for 35 years, I find it hard to imagine that any fans anywhere could possibly be more arrogant than NU’s!

And yeah, I thought NU would put up more of a fight than they did. I would have guessed MU by 17, and hoped MU by 80!
Mark Says:
October 5th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Has the NU A.D. ever said anything as arrogant as, “We don’t keep up with Joneses. We are the Joneses”? Do NU fans wear t-shirts that say, “Money talks”?

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Take it to the Bank: Week 6 Forecast

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