Heading into the final weekend of the college football season, the Take it to the Bank record against the spread is 108-97. (You could look it up.)

Although these picks are always for entertainment purposes only, anyone who had been foolish enough to take them seriously and wagered the same amount on every game all season would have won 52.6%–just above the break even point, taking into account the normal 5% vigorish charged by most sports books.

Because of the dearth of games on this week’s schedule, we have to employ Thursday night and high handicap contests to manage a full slate of games.

Thursday

1. Louisville +10.5 at Rutgers

Two trends tend to favor the Scarlet Knights: Their five game winning streak and Louisville’s four game losing streak. With the Home Field as added motivation, I’ll take:

RUTGERS

Friday

2. Buffalo +15 vs. Ball St (Detroit)

Buffalo is one of the most improved teams in the NCAA this season. MAC Eastern Division Champions. Rumor has it that Baylor is seeking a move to that conference and division as early as next year.

No, Buffalo can’t pull the outright upset. But can they stay within 15 of David Letterman’s undefeated alma mater?

Dave has ten reasons why they can’t.

BALL ST

Saturday

3. Navy -10.5 vs. Army (Philadelphia)

The Midshipmen sail to another big victory in this recently uneven series.

NAVY

4. Pitt +3 at. UConn

Two inconsistent teams. How in the world did UConn beat BCS-Bound Cincinnati by 24, then turn around and lose to West Virginia by 22—both at Home? I like UConn at Home. But I also like the three points Pitt is getting.

Not much to choose between these teams. I look to Pitt to suffer a slight letdown after their big win last week vs. WVU.

UCONN

5. South Florida +7 vs. West Virginia

It seems like a long time ago that USF vs. KU was a battle of ranked teams, both thinking BCS Bowls were in their future. They kind of exposed each other that fateful Friday night.

The Mountaineers come out with a vengeance to wash away the bad taste of the Pitt game. West Virginia’s #5 makes his last game in Morgantown a memorable one.

WVU

6. Washington +35 at Cal

Washington wins or goes winless. Is there anyone left who even cares?

CAL

7. Southern Cal -32.5 at UCLA

UCLA traditionally plays their arch-rivals tough in this series. Not this year, as USC makes its case for the opportunity to play Bama or FU on January 8. Think UT vs. A&M—if A&M had been even worse than they were.

USC

8. Arizona +10.5 at Arizona St

It is a little known fact that, before man migrated to what we now call Arizona—before even those we refer to as Native Americans—the animals of the area governed themselves. The primary law enforcement creatures were Grizzlies—which is why policemen, even today, are referred to as Bears. Anyway, not all of the animals were good and honorable. Otherwise there would have been no need for the Grizzlies. On one fateful day, a gang of wolves (what some would call a pack) teamed up and attacked one of the Grizzlies making his appointed rounds. The Grizzly put up a valiant fight, but there were simply too many bad guys to fend off. When he finally fell, the wolves ran off, feeling free to wreak havoc wherever they wished. The Grizzly, freed from fending off his attackers, reached for his two way radio and called his dispatcher. “Bear Down!” he said, weakly. Then again: “Bear Down.”

True story.

History does not record whether or to what extent the Grizzly recovered. But Arizona’s Wildcats have adopted his words as its unofficial motto to this day.

And that is exactly what they will do this weekend: Bear Down!

AU

9. Cincinnati -7 at Hawaii

As noted earlier, Cincinnati is not your typical BCS Bowl team, having been routed by a fair to middlin’ UConn team. And a lot of teams lose their focus in post-conference jaunts to paradise. Not to mention that Hawaii has appeared to be improving as the season has progressed.

But Cincy is good. And they do not want to be a laughingstock heading into their first ever BCS appearance.

CINCINNATI

10. Arkansas St +11 at Troy

Arkansas St beat A&M, for what it’s worth. Troy did everything but beat LSU in Baton Rouge, for what that’s worth.

What might be worth something is that, in their last nine games against the spread, ASU is 2-9, and Troy is 6-3.

TROY

11. Western Kentucky +7 at Florida International

The Hilltoppers are on a seven game losing streak. FIU only two—and they are at Home.

FIU

12. East Carolina +13.5 at Tulsa

The Pirates started the season like they intended to be a BCS party-crasher, taking out both Va Tech and West Virginia. They since have gone 6-4. But they know how to play big games. They might win this one outright. Even if they don’t, they should be able to stay within two TD’s.

EAST CAROLINA

13. Boston College vs. Va Tech (Pick) (Tampa)

This game is for all the marble. The ACC is not good enough to have more than one this year. In fact, consider this: Cincinnati and one of these teams will be in a BCS Bowl, while Texas Tech is playing in a second tier bowl game. Please, someone stop the insanity. You would think with all of UT’s spare change and T. Boone Pickens’ windmill money, someone could buy off the college presidents who put their own personal agendas ahead of the kids who play the game.

Still, one of these teams is going to play in a big money but big meaningless Bowl Game. Although not a Christian attitude, BC has revenge on its mind.

BOSTON COLLEGE

14. Alabama +9.5 vs. Florida (Atlanta)

When was the last time the undefeated No. 1 ranked team in the country was a 9 and ½ point underdog to a team that lost to Ole Miss at Home? Ever?

I think not.

FU might be the better team. But this is the “I can’t believe it’s not butter” game. I am not buying this spread.

ALABAMA

15. Mizzou +17 vs. Oklahoma (Kansas City)

This game will be closer than most people think. After last week’s loss to KU in Arrowhead, Mizzou has nothing to lose. They will play free and loose, and, as a result, are likely to just make plays. Their defense is inferior to OU’s, but not by much. Likewise, their offense is inferior, but not by much. And their special teams are much better.

Nor will MU be intimidated by the atmosphere in KC as they were last year in San Antonio. They will feel right at Home. And, having played OU reasonably close twice last year (despite the final margins, both games were within reach in the fourth quarter), they will not be intimidated by the mere sight of the OU uniforms. They also have the revenge factor. Not to mention the self-respect factor: if they limp into their bowl game with four losses and on a two game losing streak, everything the program has accomplished the last two years will be suspect.

The pressure is all on OU. If they don’t get off to a fast start, it could be a long night. If Mizzou scores first, a la KU last weekend, and can control the rhythm of the game, they will make OU more uncomfortable than the Sooners would like—and give UT reason to dream of Miami, much as Baylor did last Saturday in Lubbock. Except that Mizzou is less likely to stop scoring than Baylor.

The Sooners certainly have the ability to cover this spread if they are on top of their game. But if they feel the pressure or are just a little out of synch, an outright win by Mizzou is not out of the question in Chase Daniels’ last chance to demonstrate that he can play big time football in a big time game.

MIZZOU

–Mark

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Jason Whitlock threw in his two cents this morning on the three way tie scenario that plagued the South. His take was, basically, UT beat OU head to head on a neutral field. Case closed. Yada, yada, yada. Blah, blah, blah.

Notwithstanding Whitlock and his mental challenged compatriots like Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit, Craig James, et al., and Mack Brown’s whining, there is no (as in ZERO) justification for throwing out Texas Tech (a flukey team, according to Whitlock) and comparing only the other two head to head. Even in the case of a two way tie, head to head is not a logical way of breaking the tie. It is merely a convenient way.

The question that gets lost in the shuffle is: Why is Team A (Texas in this case) only tied for the lead if it won the head to head game with team B (OU)?

The answer, of course, is that, the rest of the time, it was losing more games. In this case, Texas was 6-1 in other conference games, 4-1 in games vs. common opponents (the South plus KU), and 3-1 vs. the South. Meanwhile, OU was better in all comparisons: 7-0, 5-0, and 4-0. What the head-to-headers insist on is that OU beat Texas by two games (8-0 to 6-2) or stay home because they lost the wrong one.

Not saying that OU is necessarily more deserving than UT. Just saying that the argument that UT should be given preference because they beat OU head to head—a questionable argument even in a two team situation–is ludicrous in a three way.

And, no, the fact that Tech lost much (if not all) of its credibility by losing a game by 44 points does not mean they should be removed from the equation, reducing the argument to two teams to then be decided by the outcome of the game between those two. UT did not make Tech irrelevant. Indeed, it was UT that made Tech relevant by losing to them. It was OU that is totally responsible for Tech’s fall from grace. The Sooners should be punished for being too good?

In a way, however, it is good that Texas is the team left out in the cold (barring a Mizzou upset of OU). Teams like Georgia, KU, and Auburn getting screwed will never lead to change in the system.

As they say in Austin, “Money Talks.” A few more of the big boys getting screwed will eventually lead to a decent playoff format involving teams and conferences throughout the country. Not this year, for sure. Maybe not in the next few years. But the more teams like UT, Ohio St, Southern Cal, and other blue (or should I say green) bloods get the short end of the BCS stick, the more likely a REAL playoff system becomes.

As a certain playoff proponent would declare: “Yes, We Can!”

Addendum:

A friend of PB has noted that KU is UT’s only road win against a team with a winning record,
while OU beat a better OSU team and TT beat both KU and 7-5 Nevada. OU
also scheduled a non-conference road game against a BCS opponent
(Washington, which admittedly sucked this year), while UT didn’t even
leave their home state to play at UTEP. Further, OU beat two BCS top
15 schools in non-conference play (TCU and Cincinnati), while UT didn’t
play anyone in the top 25, so OU is 4-1 vs. the BCS top 15 (all wins by
at least 20 points), while UT is only 2-1 (neither win by more than 10
points.) Against the whole BCS top 25 UT is 3-1. OU can move to 5-1
by beating MU on Saturday.

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