Phog Blog » 2010

BracketBrains is pretty impressive

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 3/15/2010 -

Kansas Basketball

Checking out from our friends over at teamrankings. They’ve added a lot of functionality since a few years and I have to say they’ve done a good job. The matchup visualizer tool is particularly cool. I’ve included an image sample below:

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REAL Standings: The rest of the world edition

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 3/9/2010 -

Kansas Basketball

Jeremy here for a rare PB appearance. I wanted to share some numbers that a friend of mine - we’ll call him Doug - put together using a derivative of PB Mark’s Real Standings. We all - or at least I do - love the computer rankings, and a cursory review of Sagarin or Pomeroy or Greenfield shows KU to be very well represented. However, computers, like humans, can be fooled.

The computers love Duke, but is that because they’re a legitimately great team, or is it because they leave their starters in longer than they need to and run up the score against their opponents at home? Would a great team lose multiple games by double digits to ok teams? That’s what we’re trying to figure out here.

REALly great teams do more than beat up on patsies. REALly great teams win on the road. So let’s take a look at how teams did in tough games versus how they might be expected to do. The results are revealing.

So how we judged. An elite team should…

1) win all home games
2) win all non-top 25 neutral court games
3) win all non-top 50 road games
4) split top 25 neutral court games
5) split #26-50 road games
6) lose all top 25 road games

By applying those rules to each team in the top 25, we came up with an expected number of wins and losses. If a team would have been expected to have won 6 games and lost 4, but went 4-6, it’s an indication that they are not as good as a team which did the opposite. As Doug indicates:

Under that system, KU would have been expected to go 3-6 against the top 25 and 24.5-6.5 overall but was actually 8-1 for a +5 ’score’ against the top 25 and +4.5 for the season.

Syracuse would have been expected to have a 3-2 top 25 record, but was actually 4-1 for +1. For the season, they would have been expected to go 27-4, but were 28-3, so also +1.

Duke would have been expected to go 3-4 against the top 25, but was actually 4-3 for +1. For the season, they would have been expected to go 26.5-4.5, but were 26-5, so -0.5.

Kentucky would have been expected to go 1-1 against the top 25, which was their actual record for +0. For the season, they would have been expected to go 29-2, so were again +0.

The table below shows how each team in the top 25 compares in Actual versus Expected wins in “Losable” games.

Hosted by imgur.com

Tennessee, Mizzou, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin all stand out as maybe not so good as the computers think.

Thoughts?

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REAL Standings: Final 2010 Edition

posted by Mark on 3/5/2010 -

Only one game failed to go as projected in the final MTW slate of the season: Red Hot Colorado (2 straight W’s and 3 of 5) over Nebraska in Lincoln.

In other action, UT over OU in Austin—as projected. Mizzou over Iowa St in Ames—as projected.

The Jayhawks over K-State—as projected.

A&M over Okie St in College Station—as projected (and predicted—all A&M had to do was show up).

And Baylor over Tech in an at-risk game in Lubbock.

With but one game remaining in the season for each team, all eyes are on Baylor, A&M, Mizzou, and UT, as two of these teams will take next Wednesday off along with KU and K-State.

WEEKEND UPDATE

The Rules of Projection:

Projected W’s: Home games vs. Peer and lower level teams and
Road games vs. teams two or more Tiers lower;

Projected L’s: Road games vs. Peer and higher level teams and
Home games vs. teams two or more Tiers higher;

At-risk games: Home games vs. teams one tier higher and
Road games vs. teams one tier lower.

With 15 games down, 1 to go:

Tier 1: KU, K-State

Tier 2: Baylor, Mizzou, Okie St, Texas A&M, UT

Tier 3: Oklahoma, Texas Tech

Tier 4: Colorado, Iowa St, Nebraska

The Final 2010 REAL Standings Projection, as they merge with the newspaper standings at approximately 7:00 o’clock Saturday night:

1. 14.5-1.5

KU (14-1) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: at Mizzou
2. 12-4

K-State (11-4) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: N/A

3. 11-5

Baylor (10-5) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: N/A

4. 10.5-5.5

Texas A&M (10-5) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: at OU

Mizzou (10-5) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: vs. KU

6. 9-7

UT (9-6) Projected L’s: at Baylor
Losable games: N/A

Okie St (8-7) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: N/A

8. 5.5-10.5

Colorado (5-10) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: vs. Tech

9. 4.5-11.5

Texas Tech (4-11) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: at CU

Oklahoma (4-11) Projected L’s: N/A
Losable games: vs. A&M

11. 3-13

Iowa St (3-12) Projected L’s: at K-State,
Losable games: N/A

12. 2-14

Nebraska (2-13) Projected L’s: at OSU
Losable games: N/A

What to Watch

SATURDAY

1. A&M at Oklahoma (11:00a.m.)**1/2 (At-risk game)

A win by the Aggies against the free-falling Sooners wraps up a first round bye.

2. Nebraska at Okie St (12:30p.m.)* (Projected W: Okie St)

The one meaningless game of the weekend—unless you think dropping to 8-8 puts them at risk of missing out on the Big Dance. With W’s over both KU and K-State, that is unlikely.

3. KU at Mizzou (1:00p.m.)**** (at-risk game)

For the second time in four days, the Jayhawks take on a Top 5 team. However, unlike Wednesday night, when they handled the No. 5 team in the nation handily in picking up a projected victory, their game vs. the No. 5 team in the conference is an at-risk affair, being in Columbia before a rare full house.

4. Texas Tech at Colorado (2:00p.m.)*1/2 (At-risk game)

CU goes for its sixth win and sole possession of eighth place. Now that’s meaning.

5. Texas at Baylor (3:00p.m.)**** (Projected W: BU)

Baylor is on a roll and at Home. UT is desperate to get its act together in time to salvage its season in March. If the Longhorns have any character, this will be a barnburner.

6. Iowa St at K-State (5:00p.m.)** (Projected W: K-State)

The biggest shock of the weekend would be if this game were close.

–Mark

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BracketBrains is pretty impressive

REAL Standings: The rest of the world edition

REAL Standings: Final 2010 Edition

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