Updated Probabilities

posted by Jeremy Chrysler on 3/21/2011 - -

Ken Pomeroy’s updated his log5 analysis for the Sweet 16. Despite ESPN’s cake walk suggestions, it’s still very possible that KU not make the final four. All other things being equal, if you’d have told us back in October that we’d be talking about the feasibility of not making the final four, I think we’d all have cut fat checks for it. But still, we can lose, and the teams we’ll play have beaten good teams to get where they are.

By all statistical measures, KU’s chances for earning another Final Four jumped markedly over the weekend, due in part to meeting or exceeding statistical expectations and to upsets. Nate Silver’s projections at the New York Times, which he updates multiple times daily while games are being played, were less sensitive than expected to the upsets, mostly because his model rewards margin of victory and recent play, and VCU and FSU in particular had big wins over solid teams.

Nate suggests that KU will be playing FSU if we can get by Richmond, and that overall, we have a 69.5% probability of making the Final Four.

Ken’s analysis suggests that KU has a

Team Rankings’ updated bracket odds end up in roughly the same place, although they think our Richmond game is tougher and our potential championship matchup is more winnable.

According to our computer overlords, KU has a little better than a one in five shot of cutting down the nets in Houston. I’ll take it.

And, even more than when the tournament began, the computers believe this is a three horse race. Four if you count “every one else” as another horse.

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