REAL Standings: The “What the hell’s going on out there” edition

posted by Mark on 1/12/2013 - -

To paraphrase Vince Lombardi, “What the hell’s going on out there!”

We have a team that looked like a runaway winner of the Big 12 fluking out a W vs. Iowa St at Home, and struggling to put away a team on the Road that will finish better than 11th in the Big 12 only because the Big 12 has but 10 teams.

We have a putative Tier One Team, Okie St, dropping its first two Road games to Tier Two K-State and OU.

We have K-State and OU not only protecting their Home courts against Okie St, but taking West Virginia out on the Road.

We have West Virginia dropping those two Home games, but winning on the Road at Texas.

We have Texas, playing well in a loss at Baylor, losing at home to WVU, and then getting blown out by Iowa St in Ames.

Actually, TCU is the only team that has been, to quote Dennis Green, “who we thought they were.” We thought they were pathetic, and they are. So pathetic they lost to Tech at Home, as well as on the Road to Okie St and Baylor.

So do we drop Okie St to Tier Two? Not yet. Manhattan and Norman are not automatic W’s for even the best teams in the league—although the best teams should probably win one of those two games.

Should we move K-State or OU into Tier One? Not yet. Not until they take out someone better than West Virginia on the Road.

Should we move Iowa St into Tier One? Not yet. The REAL Standings does not put much stock in Home victories or Road losses (even close Road losses to the league’s top team).

Should we move UT and WVU down? To Tech and TCU level? They are not that bad.

Or should we add a Tier for them between K-State/OU/ISU and Tech/TCU. That sounds about right, but no need to rush into anything with 15-16 games remaining in the season.

At any rate, the league race suddenly looks like it could become interesting. It is at least possible to envision the Jayhawks dropping 3-5 games and opening up the race to all comers. Well, five comers, anyway.

Then, again, interesting is over-rated.

THE CURRENT 2013 SEASON REAL TIERS

1. Tier One: KU/Okie St/Baylor

2. Tier Two: Iowa St, K-State, Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia.

3. Tier Three: TCU, Tech.

THE CURRENT2013 REAL STANDINGS:

1. 13.5-4.5

Baylor (3-0) Projected L’s: at KU, at OSU
At-risk games: at ISU, at K-State, at OU, at WVU, at UT

KU (2-0) Projected L’s: at OSU, at BU
At-risk games: at UT, at K-State, at WVU, at OU, at ISU

3. 12.5-5.5

Okie St (1-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU
At-risk games: at UT, at WVU, at ISU

4. 10-8

Oklahoma (2-0) Projected L’s: at KSU, at KU, at BU, at ISU, at OSU, at UT
At-risk games: KU, Tech, BU, at TCU

K-State (2-0) Projected L’s: at ISU, at OU, at KU, at UT, at BU, at OSU
At-risk games: at TCU, KU, at Tech, BU

6. 8.5-9.5

Iowa State (1-1) Projected L’s: at OSU, at K-State, at UT, at BU, at OU, at WVU
At-risk games: at TCU, at Tech, BU, KU, OSU

7. 7.5-10.5

W. Virginia (1-2) Projected L’s: at ISU, at OSU, at BU, at K-State, at KU, at OU
At-risk games: KU, at Tech, at TCU, OSU, BU

Texas (0-3) Projected L’s: at OU, at K-State, at WVU, at KU, at OSU
At-risk games: KU, OSU, at TCU, BU, at Tech

9. 4.5-13.5

Texas Tech (1-2) Projected L’s: at OU, at OSU, at UT, at BU, OSU, at WVU, at ISU, at K-State, at KU
At-risk games: ISU, WVU, K-State, OU, UT

10. 2.5-15.5

TCU (0-3) Projected L’s: at WVU, BU, at UT, KU, at OU, at ISU, at KU, OSU, at Tech, at K-State
At-risk games: KSU, ISU, WVU, UT, OU

What to Watch

Monday:

1. Baylor at KU (8:00p.m.)**** (Projected W: KU)
Is this what the Jayhawks have been looking ahead to? A shot at the once lowly Central Texas team that took out Kentucky fairly easily in Lexington? Oh, wait. I’m thinking of Texas A&M.

Wednesday

2. Texas Tech at Oklahoma (7:00p.m.) * (Projected W: OU)

One of 18 games this season having no apparent redeeming social value: Tech’s nine Road games, and TCU’s.

3. West Virginia vs. Iowa St (8:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: ISU)

Iowa St gets another chance to show off. If they are, indeed, a high Tier Two team with designs on movin’ on up, this is a “take care of business” game.

4. K-State at TCU (8:00p.m.)*1/2 (At-risk game)

K-State has not looked so overwhelming as to appear unbeatable in any Road game. They should win, but they can’t afford to put their game on auto-pilot, a la KU in Lubbock, and feel confident of taking the W out of Fort Orth.

–Mark

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