Friend of Phog Blog Ken Pomeroy breaks down the Bracket today, using his efficiency numbers, and I think Jayhawks will be pleased:
(more…)

Once again, I repeat:

You could go on gut instinct, and lose, or spend hours and hours poring over endless statistics.

Or if you’re smart, you could spend a few bucks to have access to the same proprietary tools that Vegas uses to pick games. I know I’ll be using the BracketBrains tool this year, and I recommend you do the same. Click on the banner below to check it out, but I’m pretty sure you’ll be as impressed as I am, and if you end up signing up, a little bit of dough will go to keeping the Phog Blog’s server’s running.

Luke Winn explores the importance of individuals to teams in a column today. I was surprised to find Brandon Rush in his list at #6.

I think the miserable performance at UT probably hurts him the most, but it’s still an interesting exercise.

Check it out.

All-Bellwether Team
Which players’ scoring averages differed the most between wins and losses?
Rk. Player Team Conf. Rec. Avg. in wins Avg in Ls Diff.
1 Richard Roby Colorado (9-7) 23.7 13.1 10.6
2 Steve Novak Marquette (10-6) 23.9 14.5 9.4
3 Paul Davis Michigan State (7-8) 20.4 11.6 8.8
4 Devan Downey Cincy (8-8) 13.5 5.3 8.2
5 Chris Lofton Tennessee (12-4) 19.9 12.8 7.1
6 Patrick O’Bryant Bradley (13-8) 15.6 8.6 7.0
7 Brandon Rush Kansas (13-3) 16.4 9.7 6.7
8 Dee Brown Illinois (11-5) 17.2 10.8 6.4
9 Adam Haluska Iowa (11-5) 15.8 10.2 5.6
10 Cameron Bennerman N.C. State (10-5) 17.6 12.0 5.6

You could go on gut instinct, and lose, or spend hours and hours poring over endless statistics.

Or if you’re smart, you could spend a few bucks to have access to the same proprietary tools that Vegas uses to pick games. I know I’ll be using the BracketBrains tool this year, and I recommend you do the same. Click on the banner below to check it out, but I’m pretty sure you’ll be as impressed as I am.

Most of the bracket predictions out there are pretty lame. Most have Boston College and KU as 6-7 seeds, which, in my opinion, is bad, bad math. The tournament is less than a month away now, and I think it’s time to start making actual predictions about what seed teams will end up with. This seems to me to be a better use of time than “if the season ended today” predictions. The season doesn’t end today. This is a predictive bracket. I encourage your feedback. I admit I’m mailing it in for the 13-16 seeds.

The First Phog Blog Bracket (2/20/06):

1 Seeds:
Duke, UConn, Villanova, Memphis

2 Seeds:
Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas (-), Ohio State

3 Seeds:
Boston College, Florida, Tennessee, Iowa

4 Seeds:
Kansas, Illinois, West Virginia, GW

5 Seeds
UCLA, North Carolina State, Michigan State, Georgetown

6 Seeds
LSU, Oklahoma, UNC, George Mason

7 Seeds
Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Bucknell, Washington

8 Seeds
Cal, Nevada, Marquette, Alabama

9 Seeds
Creighton, So. Illinois, Seton Hall, Wichita St

10 Seeds
Arizona, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri State

11 Seeds
UAB, Air Force, Syracuse, Colorado

12 Seeds
W. Kentucky, San Diego State, UW-Milwaukee, NC-Wilmington

13 Seeds
Northwestern State, Montana, Akron, Iona

14 Seeds
Winthrop, Murray State, Penn, Pacific

15 Seeds
FDU, Belmont, IUPUI, Northern Arizona

16 Seeds
Georgia Southern, Albany, Delaware State, Play-in

I’ve got a feeling this thing has more holes in it than a horse-trader’s mule, or will have come Selection Sunday, but hey, there’s only so much you can do.

UT is a good team, but as Mark pointed out, they are a vulnerable team. This strikes me as an important point and one that I should have considered more.

Last year, we were a good team, but we were an extremely vulnerable team, particularly once JR started going cold. Indeed, a lot of Roy’s teams were vulnerable - to athleticism, to cold shooting, to slobberknocking fisticuffs. I hadn’t considered it before, but Self seems to want to build teams that don’t have these vulnerabilities.

Using one primary ballhandler leaves you up a creek if he gets injured or foul prone. Self’s solution: have two to three guys who can handle and dish the rock. Not only does this work as a sort of insurance policy, but it also makes it harder for opposing coaches to prepare for you.

Having guards that can penetrate and create offense leaves you much less reliant on warm shooting. Heck, on Monday we shot 1/7 from behind the arc and still won by 15 on the road in Stillwater to a team that owned UT (and by the way, OSU may have played better on offense against UT, but I think you have to give credit to KU’s defense for that).

And in slobberknocking fisticuffs we’ve shown ourselves more than capable of knocking more slobber and cuffing more fists. Want to slow up the game and keep it ugly? Fine. You’ll be tired at about the 8 minute mark and we’ll run you silly from then on out.

I’ve been a big Self supporter, but I think that was more a result of my dovish personality towards KU hoops than any keen understanding of exactly what he was doing. But now his vision for the program is coming into focus for me, and I really like what I’m seeing. This Self team is tough, athletic and enthusiastic, and I love it.

And this team is not very vulnerable, at least not in the Williamsian sense. Our key vulnerabilities are probabably intense ball pressure at the guard spots and really hot three point shooting (but for whom is this not true?). I would add cold free throw shooting as well, but we’ve really excelled at that over the last 8 weeks, so I don’t think I can.

I just love where this team is going. I got to watch a lot of college basketball this weekend and I must echo the comments from Jayhawk fans everywhere - when national media folks ignore or denigrate Kansas, they shine a harsh light on their overpaid ignorance. The Seth Davis OU thing was perfect. We’ll probably beat OU in the league by 2-3 games and a tiebreaker, and they’re the threat?

That’s rich. This is the same guy who ELEVEN DAYS AGO called KSU - with UT, CU, OU, TT and KU still left on their schedule - a possible NCAA tournament team.

Seth, bubby! Tell me you don’t believe the things you say on TV!

KU is up to 18 in the ESPN/USA Today poll as well.

If you’re looking for the schedule of the Big Dance, this link is a good place to start. If KU were to make it to Dallas, the closest place they could be, they’d play on Friday/Sunday. Tickets aren’t sold out at this point, so you might want to gobble them up if you’re into that sort of speculation.

Does KU have a chance to win it all?

It’s better than you think. If you’re looking for a sleeper pick, go with KU to go deep and upset some people. Vegas hasn’t caught on yet.

LOCATION LIST FOR 2006 NCAA BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT

2006: 68th ANNUAL DIVISION I BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP

Opening Round Tuesday, March 14, 2006
University of Dayton Arena
Dayton, Ohio
Host: University of Dayton
Tickets: $10
Phone: 937/229-4433
Web site: www.daytonflyers.com
E-mail: flyertickets@notes.udayton.edu

First/Second Rounds Thursday and Saturday, March 16 and 18, 2006
Greensboro Coliseum
Greensboro, NC
Host: Atlantic Coast Conference
Ticket Info: $165
Phone: 336/412-6222
Web site: www.greensborocoliseum.com
E-mail: ncaa2006@greensboro-nc.gov

Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena
Jacksonville, Fla.
Host: Jacksonville University
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Phone: 904/630-3900
Web site: www.judolphins.com
E-mail: spintern@coj.net

Jon M. Huntsman Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
Host: University of Utah
Ticket Info: $135
Phone: 801/581-8849
Web site: www.utahtickets.com
E-mail: mail@utahtickets.com

Cox Arena
San Diego, Calif.
Host: San Diego State University
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Phone: 619/283-7378
Web site: http://goaztecs.collegesports.com
E-mail: aztix@mail.sdsu.edu

Friday and Sunday, March 17 and 19, 2006
University of Dayton Arena
Dayton, Ohio
Host: University of Dayton
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Phone: 937/229-4433
Web site: www.daytonflyers.com
E-mail: flyertickets@notes.udayton.edu

Wachovia Center
Philadelphia, Penn.
Host: Atlantic 10 Conference
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Phone: 215/336-3600
Web site: www.atlantic10.org

American Airlines Center
Dallas, Texas
Host: Big 12 Conference
Ticket Info: $150
Phone: 214/665-4797
Web site: www.big12sports.com

Palace of Auburn Hills
Auburn Hills, Mich.
Host: Oakland University
Ticket Info: $180
Phone: 248/377-0100
Web site: www.ougrizzlies.com
E-mail: tix2006@oakland.edu

Regionals Thursday and Saturday, March 23 and 25, 2006
Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
Host: Georgia Institute of Technology
Ticket Info: $130
Phone: 404/222-6222
Web site: www.gadome.com
E-mail: NCAAbasketball@gadome.com

Oakland Arena
Oakland, Calif.
Host: University of San Francisco
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Phone: 415/422-6666
Web site: www.usfdons.com
E-mail: 2006westregional@usfca.edu

Friday and Sunday, March 24 and 26, 2006
MCI Center
Washington, D.C.
Host: Georgetown University
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Phone: 202/784-6222
Web site: www.guhoyas.com
E-mail: ncaatix@georgetown.edu

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Host: University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Ticket Info; $130
Phone: 800/846-7437
Web site: www.gophersports.com
E-mail: go4tickets@umn.edu

Final Four Saturday and Monday, April 1 and 3, 2006
RCA Dome
Indianapolis, Ind.
Hosts: Butler University and Horizon League