Efficiency Preview: Big 12 Tournament

posted by DavidH on 3/6/2007 - -

The Big 12 tourney starts in a couple days. Here’s the schedule if you haven’t already seen it. Now let’s get right to the numbers. First, here’s how all the teams have been playing over the last 10 games:

Last 10 Games Adjusted Efficiency Averages
Team Seed Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Pythag Rnk
Kansas 1 69.8 3 126.6 3 80.7 1 0.9944 1
TexasA&M 2 65.1 7 126.8 2 90.3 2 0.9803 2
Texas 3 67.1 5 128.9 1 94 5 0.9742 3
KansasSt 4 64.6 8 119.1 4 97.8 7 0.9059 4
TexasTech 5 64.3 9 113.5 7 99.7 9 0.8163 8
Missouri 6 69.8 2 117.4 6 98.6 8 0.8811 6
OklahomaSt 7 65.8 6 108.9 9 101.9 10 0.6834 10
IowaSt 8 62.7 10 97.8 12 93 4 0.642 11
Oklahoma 9 61.4 11 109.5 8 90.9 3 0.8947 5
Nebraska 10 61 12 104.4 11 94.6 6 0.7552 9
Baylor 11 67.2 4 118.6 5 103.4 12 0.8291 7
Colorado 12 71.1 1 107.1 10 102.7 11 0.6195 12

stats glossary

Hey, Colorado’s 1st in something? What the… oh, tempo. OK. Looking at the Pythagorean rating, the top 3 teams here are no surprise. What might surprise you is that if I made this same chart for ALL of Division I NCAA basketball, those three would be ranked 1st, 5th, and 8th. Texas has officially joined the party. Even more surprising is that all three are top 5 in offense. I haven’t actually run the numbers on ALL teams, so the ranks in this next table are where they rate among the 78 that I have looked at. Any team with an outside shot at a 12-seed or better in the big dance was included, along with all Big 12 teams.

Last 10 Games Rank Among All Teams Within Shouting Distance of Getting an At-Large Bid to the NCAA Tournament
Team Tempo Offense Defense Pythag
Kansas 7 5 2 1
TexasAM 36 3 20 5
Texas 18 1 41 8

I’d be shocked if somebody outside that group cuts down the nets in Oklahoma City. That said, if it happens, it’s bound to be a team out of the KU side of the bracket. Any dark horse from the other side will have to take down KU, A&M, and Texas. Sorry, but nobody’s winning a tournament by beating all three top-10 rated Big 12 powers in consecutive games. That’s impossible.

I’m talking a lot about the top seeds here because I’m not going to have time to do individual game previews of the later rounds. Don’t worry, we’ll get to everyone else right after this page break. (more…)

Pomeroy Big 12 Tournament Percentages

posted by Jacob on 3/4/2007 - -
  2nd Round Semis    Finals    Champs  
Kansas 100.0% 86.1% 77.8% 50.5%
Texas A&M 100.0% 89.6% 68.1% 35.3%
Texas 100.0% 75.7% 24.8% 8.0%
Oklahoma 87.4% 13.5% 8.6% 2.4%
Kansas St. 100.0% 58.8% 8.5% 1.7%
Texas Tech 89.7% 40.3% 5.0% 0.9%
Missouri 74.6% 21.3% 3.8% 0.7%
Oklahoma St. 69.5% 8.6% 2.8% 0.5%
Iowa St 12.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado 10.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 30.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Baylor 25.4% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0%

 

These were done, as always, with data from www.kenpom.com.  Each column is the team’s chance of advancing to that round.  They take into account the fact that these games are being played at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City- all Ok. St.’s games are considered “semi-home”.

A couple specifics of interest- Kansas beats Texas A&M 57.5% of the time, and beats Texas 77.9% of the time.  They beat Colorado 98.9% of the time by an average of 29.2 points (although that may or may not be of interest).