Cross-posted from HackTheBracket.

This should look a whole lot like the previous round games for these teams. UCLA is playing the best defense in the tourney, and will try to slow down Kansas, just like Southern Illinois did.

The efficiency predictions look quite sensible. UCLA has played slightly better in the three NCAA Tournament games but Kansas was playing slightly better at the end of the regular season/during the conference tournament.

If Kansas can return to their normal levels of turnovers committed and defensive rebounds garnered, they’ll be dangerous for UCLA. Despite an outstanding defensive performance overall from Southern Illinois, Kansas did shoot 60.7 eFG% and that was their worst shooting performance of the tournament so far. UCLA (70.4 DR% on the season) should, however, be able to keep Kansas off the offensive glass when the Jayhawks do miss a shot.

The biggest problem UCLA will pose for Kansas is deciding which of Arron Afflalo or Josh Shipp Brandon Rush will guard down the stretch. Shipp’s numbers are certainly helped by the attention Afflalo draws from opposing defenses, but they aren’t really that different.

If it comes down to free throw shooting, expect both fan bases to be covering their eyes. Kansas and UCLA both shoot 66.3% from the line on the year.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Kansas 65, UCLA 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Kansas 68, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Kansas 67, UCLA 66
• Trendline Prediction … Kansas 66, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 62, Kansas 60

UPDATED GRAPHS

Kansas team capsule
UCLA team capsule

According to Ken Pomeroy and Mr. Picklesimer (anybody else read “Picklemiester” every time?).  UNC is still slightly favored in a head-to-head matchup, but Kansas has an easier path.  Of course, I suspect this doesn’t include UCLA’s home state advantage should they meet the Jayhawks in the Elite 8.  I might be rooting for Pittsburgh next round.

Contrary to popular perception (or at least my perception of popular perception), Tubby Smith’s 2006-07 Kentucky team is an excellent shooting team that struggles to guard their opponents. Of course, Kentucky went out and beat Villanova in atypical fashion last night. A solid defensive performance made up for their field goal shooting being merely adequate rather than outstanding.

The 0.94 points per possession Kentucky allowed last night marked the first good defensive performance (less than one point allowed per possession) from the Wildcats since they held Florida to 0.95 points per possession in Rupp Arena ten games ago. Extending Kentucky’s defensive slump, in the two games preceding that Florida game, the Wildcats allowed 1.24 points per possession to South Carolina, and 1.09 points per possession @Arkansas. (It should also be noted that when Kentucky visited Florida, the Gators shot 73 eFG% and rebounded half of their misses en route to scoring 1.29 points per possession.)

KENTUCKY DEFENSE v. KANSAS OFFENSE

(at-risk games only)

Kentucky’s at-risk profile includes home wins over Miami, OH, Eastern Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee (without Chris Lofton), neutral court wins over DePaul, Chattanooga, Alabama, and Villanova, road wins over Louisville, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Arkansas, home losses to Vanderbilt and Florida, neutral court losses to UCLA, Memphis, and Mississippi State, and road losses to North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Florida.

With the exception of the game against Tennessee (again, without Lofton) at home, Kentucky’s outstanding defensive performances (less than 0.9 points per possession allowed) in at-risk games all occurred in mid-January or earlier: Miami, OH, vs. Chattanooga, Indiana, @Louisville, and @South Carolina.

Kentucky’s defensive numbers have been helped by their opponents’ poor free throw shooting. They allowed 1.04 points per possession in SEC play despite their conference opponents shooting just 62.7% from the free throw line. This is the rare instance where a typical performance at the free throw line from the Jayhawks could hurt their opponent.

It may not matter, though, as Kentucky’s performance in the other three factors are what have kept them slightly below average defensively. Kansas’s penchant for making a good percentage of their field goal attempts and rebounding a high percentage of their missed shots should trouble a Kentucky team who isn’t very good at forcing misses and just adequate at protecting their defensive glass. Against Kansas these tendencies may be magnified if Kentucky continues to struggle to force turnovers.

KENTUCKY OFFENSE v. KANSAS DEFENSE

(at-risk games only)

Kentucky’s offense performed quite similarly to Kansas’s in at-risk games. The Wildcats make a few more shots and rebound a lower percentage of their misses. The frequency with which they turn the ball over will necessitate that they make a typical percentage of their field goals. That’s extremely difficult to do against Kansas. Kentucky has a shot at doing so, though, as Sheray Thomas is the only player in the Wildcat rotation to shoot less than 50 eFG% or score less than 1.07 PPWS.

There’s littel doubt that NBA free agent Randolph Morris will test Sasha Kaun defensively. If Kaun continues to establish good defensive position and let the double-teamer harass the opposition’s best post scorer, Kansas can be expected to limit Morris’s effectiveness. Though he’s Kentucky’s best scorer (both in terms of volume and efficiency) Morris is not a particularly good passer (2.4 A/100 against 4.7 TO/100) so effective double-teams in the post could cause Kentucky’s offense to stagnate.

On the perimeter, Kansas’s guards will need to refrain from gambling for turnovers against Kentucky’s guards, instead forcing them into the heart of the KU defense for difficult field goal attempts. Ramel Bradley (5.0 TO/100) and Derrick Jasper (6.0 TO/100), especially, will probably turn the ball over often enough due to the basic ball pressure and swarming interior defense Kansas typically musters.

Bradley, Joe Crawford, and Jodie Meeks combine to take half their shots from beyond the three-point arc, making 37.2, 35.3, and 36.5% of those shots respectively. The guard trio troubles defenses because they are quite good at converting the two-point shots they attempt as well. Crawford shoots 52.6% inside the arc, Meeks makes 50.5% of his two-point shots, and Bradley converts on 49% of his attempts.

Kentucky’s balanced and efficient offense will test Kansas’s outstanding defense. The Wildcats are capable of getting hot enough that the opposing defense can effectively cease to be relevant for stretches of a game. What should encourage Kansas fans is that the Jayhawks have survived such performances from Texas each of the last two weekends. For all Kevin Durant did in the first halves of those games, Kansas held Texas 2% below their season average offensive efficiency in Lawrence, and 8% below their season average offensive efficiency in Oklahoma City.

Kentucky isn’t as good offensively as Texas (though they’re probably an equal amount better defensively than the Longhorns) so supressing their offense by 6-8% would put them far enough behind Kansas’s expected offensive efficiency against a mediocre defense to keep the game from coming down to the final possessions.

Prediction: Kansas 73 Kentucky 62

David’s excellent efficiency preview available here and at HackTheBracket (along with 31 other previews of equal quality).

Niagara is better than a typical 16-seed and their offensive efficiency is their clear strength. Unfortunately for the Purple Eagles, their offensive efficiency is a clear strength in part due to their defensive efficiency being a clear weakness.

Considering that Niagara’s three toughest games consisted of (with efficiency margins in the parentheses) hosting Akron (-25), hosting St. John’s (-33), and playing Holy Cross (+13) at neutral site, their performance in at-risk games (admittedly impacted by leading scorer Charron Fisher missing 7 of Niagara’s 25 at-risk games, including the losses to Akron and St. John’s) doesn’t suggest they can expect to compete with Kansas for 40 minutes.

NIAGARA OFFENSE v. KANSAS DEFENSE

(at-risk games only)

Niagara will likely shoot even worse than normal from the field against Kansas’s defense and it’s even more unlikely that Niagara will be able to match their usual offensive rebounding rate. Even with his outstanding shooting performance Tuesday night in Dayton, Clif Brown is just a 46.4 eFG% shooter on the season. Charron Fisher (50.9 eFG%), Tyrone Lewis (50.2 eFG%), and JR Duffey (51.4 eFG%) all shoot better than Brown, but none of them would rank higher than 7th in eFG% on Kansas’s stat sheet. If they’re struggling to create easy shots against the 288th rated defensive schedule in the country, then Kansas should cause them fits.

Let me make this clear: Kansas is an oustanding defensive team. There are other important factors for the team entering the NCAA Tournament: pace of play (Niagara should cooperate with that in the first round), field goal shooting (just 49.1 eFG% in the Big 12 Tournament), and health (I’d rather they not have to try and win six games in a row without one or more members of the eight-man rotation) but any prolonged success they have in this tournament will be due first and foremost to their defense.

In Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, Kansas is 2.8 points per 100 possessions better than the second-placed team. The difference between first and second is greater than the difference between the second- and twelfth-ranked teams.

Kansas emerged as a national title contender because their offense improved over the course of the season but the underlying, constant reason for Kansas’s recent success has been the team’s defensive play. (Again, David represents this excellently in graph form.)

(more…)

This post will be good for about 15 hours, so get while the getting is good. A quick and dirty projection of next week’s rankings.

1. Wisconsin - Lost…twice…and lost a player. Next week: 6th

2. Ohio State - Nearly peed the bed against Penn State…again…beat a Wisconsin team missing its leading rebounder by a point at home. Next week: moving to their rightful position as the greatest team in all of basketball.

3. Florida - Lost to LSU, sans Glen Big Baby Davis. What’s worse, they got only 23 rebounds. I guess they have an excuse because they have the SEC locked up and have for weeks now, it seems, but one must wonder whether the listless play will carry over into the tournament. If any future Florida foes are watching, here’s how you beat them: zone them, get Joachim frustrated and hope that Humpty isn’t hot. Next week: 4th

4. UCLA - Two solid wins this week, which is about all you can ask for. Next week: 2nd. The only true lock for a one seed, in my opinion, but this means very little. Next week: 2nd (but they’ll get some more first place votes)

5. UNC - A pull-away victory over NCSU and a give-away loss at Maryland. If Maryland were a better team and if they hadn’t had a 12 point lead with less than 10 to play, this wouldn’t have been a bad loss. Still, they’ll get a pass and probably stay a one seed without another slip-up. Next week: 6th

6. KU - A solid win at Huggyville in the biggest game in Manhattan in the last twenty years and another pasting of a conference foe in the Phog v. Iowa State. Next week: 3rd

7. Memphis - I don’t know where to put these guys. I’ve got to think that it says something that KU is pounding better opponents by more. Next week: 7th. I think they’ve hit their ceiling. I said that a few weeks ago.

8. A&M - The Aggies got the job done…it just wasn’t that tough of job. Next week: 8th.

So by the twisted crimson and blue reasoning above, KU should be in pretty good shape for a one seed. But in this coastally biased world in which we livin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stuck at 6th.

Here’s the Phog Blog projected top ten for next week.

1. An Ohio State University
2. UCLA
3. KU
4. Florida
5. UNC
6. Wisconsin
7. Memphis
8. A&M
9. Georgetown
10. Nevada (Idaho State Champions)

Placing 3, 4, 5 and 6 wasn’t easy, so this is my vote people.

This is my first post, so I’ll try not to embarass myself.

Last night David sent me a file that can be used to predict games using Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Using this Excel spreadsheet, you can predict the winner of each game, the score, and % of the time that either team will win. There are various uses for this, obviously. What I have done is take Joe Lunardi’s current projected bracket (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology) and figure out what percentage of the time each team will advance to each round. As this is fairly time consuming, I have only done the West region (where Kansas currently resides). Here’s what I came up with:

Advances to 2nd Rd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four

Wisconsin 98.7% 71.2% 51.6% 22.9%

Central Connecticut 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Jackson St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Kansas 98.9% 75.5% 52.0% 37.%

East Tennessee St. 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Georgetown 94.1% 79.6% 34.4% 21.0%

Pennsylvania 5.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Air Force 94.7% 56.3% 20.2% 5.3%

Vermont 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Virginia Tech 75.8% 37.2% 12.3% 2.9%

Santa Clara 24.2% 6.0% 1.1% 0.0%

Virginia 62.8% 13.4% 2.0% 0.5%

Winthrop 37.2% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Southern California 30.6% 4.7% 1.4% 0.5%

Michigan St. 69.4% 19.8% 9.5% 4.9%

Notre Dame 67.6% 22.3% 12.4% 3.5%

Tennessee 32.4% 6.3% 2.1% 0.3%

Obviously, a lot of this depends on the draw, but Kansas will be the favorite to advance in just about any draw they have, as they are #2 in Pomeroy’s ratings. What I found interesting was Wisconsin and Kansas reach the Elite 8 almost the exact same percentage of the time, although Kansas is clearly superior when they play head to head. This is a byproduct of Kansas having both Georgetown (Pomeroy #7) and Michigan St. (Pomeroy #11) in their half of the bracket. I would expect that in an average bracket, Kansas would have a greater chance of reaching the Elite 8, but if they were paired with a stronger #1 seed, their chances of winning their Regional Final game would decrease.

I’ll probably do another one of these with a future Lunardi bracket, and compare the two.

You know what that means…nothing, except maybe another contest of some sort. Well perhaps for another day.

Anyway, a few of them talk about KU in their pollxplanations, so I’ll pass those comments on to save you some time:

Jay Bilas:

Kansas is starting to come on, as is Georgetown. The Jayhawks remind me of the way we thought of Florida at this time last season.

Doug “Shorts on Backwards” Gottleib:

Kansas might seem a bit high to some, but look closer at what the Jayhawks have done and you can see my logic. Yes, they lost to A&M at home, but if we think back to that game, we remember that the Jayhawks dominated for 36 minutes before Acie Law put them to sleep. A&M has been incredibly impressive for the most part, but KU has won its five games since that loss by an average of 27.2 ppg and KU’s out-of-conference performances are far superior to that of A&M’s

lank

KU is 8th in one poll and 9th in another. Since A&M, Pitt and UNC in front of KU have all lost, it’s only natural that KU move up. But how much is the question? Why do I care? It’s getting down to crunch time now and I really want to see KU with a 1 seed and / or trips to Chicago and St. Louis, and I think we’ve got a good shot at both.

Here are the rankings:

1. FU - No change anticipated
2. OSU - No change anticipated
3. UW - No Change anticipated
4. UNC - Will drop to at least 5th, more if they lose at BC on Saturday.
5. UCLA - at ASU and at Arizona this week. The game at Arizona is HUGE for Zona given their recent skid. Up to 4 if they win.
6. A&M - Will drop a couple spots for a home loss.
7. Pitt - Will drop to at least 10 for getting drubbed at home by a suspect Louisville team
8.5 KU - Will move up at least two - three spots if we can win both at CU and against NU at home.
8.5 Memphis - I think they’ve hit their ceiling in terms of ranking this year. Everybody knows they play in a crappy conference and wouldn’t have one 13 in a row. They might move up to 7/8, but I doubt we see them much higher.

At present, I think KU will skip both A&M and Pitt, and perhaps UNC. If UCLA loses, KU *might be able to hop up to 4th, but it’s unlikely. In any case, I like where things are going. OSU and UW play each other and one of them has to lose. The winner of that game gets a one seed in my opinion, but I don’t think they’ll both get ones…the big 10 just isn’t that great this year.

Here’s how I see the one seeds:

1-1 - Florida
1-2 - OSU / UW winner assuming no other losses
1-3 - ??
1-4 - ??

I think those other two slots are up in the air. UCLA is in a prime spot for one of them and UNC will probably grab the other, but I really don’t think it’s as locked up as the punditry seems to have assumed.

More likely than not, we’re either 1-0 or 2-0 headed into our last ten games.

Pomeroy has us favored in the rest of our games, but, at least according to his rankings, OU will be a nailbiter. It may very well be, but I think OU is way over-rated by Pomeroy.

I’ve had our game at Bramlage circled as a toughy since day one, and I still think the game will be tough. This team seems to have responded to a pee-away loss this year as they did last year, with steely resolve. You might call this team a spark plug with a bonfire’s mentality. Or I might.

Duke lost again. I believe that’s four in a row and they’ve got Boston College on the horizon. When ESPN is speculating that you mightn’t make the tournament, they’re trying to increase ratings for your upcoming games.

Anyone else notice that we’re scoring more points / game in conference than in non-conference games? That can’t be that common in major conferences. Might want to call that a Sherroncidence, since boyo’s averaging about 13 points a game in conference games and is clearly a fire hydrant with a bull dog’s mentality.

If you haven’t read this diary of a mock selection meeting, you need to.

Looking for tickets to the NCAA Tournament Games?

Scroll down for the schedule.

2007: 69th ANNUAL DIVISION I MENS BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Selection Information
Sunday, March 11, 6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Opening Round: Tuesday, March 13, 2007
UD Arena
Dayton, Ohio
Host: University of Dayton
Ticket Info: $10 *
Phone: 937/229-4433
Web site: www.daytonflyers.com
First and Second Rounds: Thursday and Saturday, March 15 and 17, 2007
HSBC Arena
Buffalo, New York
Hosts: Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, Canisius College and Niagara University
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Web site: www.hsbcarena.com
Rupp Arena
Lexington, Kentucky
Host: University of Kentucky
Ticket Info: $150 *
Phone: 800/928-2287
Web site: www.ukathletics.com
ARCO Arena
Sacramento, California
Host: University of the Pacific
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT *
Phone: 916/928-5193
Web site: www.pacifictigers.com
Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Host: Wake Forest University
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Web site: www.ljvm.com
First and Second Rounds: Friday and Sunday, March 16 and 18, 2007
United Center
Chicago, Illinois
Host: Big Ten Conference
Ticket Info: $225 *
Phone: 312/455-4667
Web site: www.unitedcenter.com
Nationwide Arena
Columbus, Ohio
Host: The Ohio State University
Ticket info: SOLD OUT
Web site: www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com
New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, Louisiana
Host: Tulane University
Ticket Info: $145 *
Phone: 504/525-5678
Web site: www.gnosports.com/ncaa
Spokane Memorial Arena
Spokane, Washington
Host: Washington State University
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
Web site: www.spokanearena.com
Regionals: Thursday and Saturday, March 22 and 24, 2007
South Regional
Alamodome
San Antonio, Texas
Host: University of Texas-San Antonio
Ticket info: $130 *
Phone: 800/884-3663
Web site: www.alamodome.com
West Regional
HP Pavilion
San Jose, California
Host: San Jose State University
Ticket info: SOLD OUT
Web site: www.sjsuspartans.com
Regionals: Friday and Sunday, March 23 and 25, 2007
East Regional
Continental Airlines Arena
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Host: Rutgers University
Ticket info: SOLD OUT *
Web site: www.meadowlands.com
Midwest Regional
Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri
Host: Missouri Valley Conference
Ticket info: $130/$120/$110 *
Phone: 314/621-2307
Web site: www.mvc.org
Final Four: March 31 and April 2, 2007
Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
Host: Georgia Tech
Ticket Info: SOLD OUT
*All ticket prices are subject to a service charge and a Good of the Game Fund fee.

CNNSI’s Luke Winn has us at number 2.

And ESPN has us as its first number 2 seed.

I agree w/ Hoopinion that we’re probably in the 5-8 range at present overall, and this week didn’t do too much to fill me with glee. Julian was sick though and I’ll wait to fill myself with glee or something else until after this Saturday, which was circled as a potential L since day one.

Ken Pomeroy predicts just one actual loss for the Hawks between now and the Big 12 Tournament - at Nebraska. That projection will surely change over time. Overall, he projects that KU will be 27-3 (due to risk adusting an additional loss in there non-specificallly) going into the post-season.

I don’t think we’ll lose at Nebraska, for what it’s worth, and I don’t think we’ll lose to A&M at home. I do think, however that we’ll lose one or two more weirdo games that I’m not seeing so clearly yet.

Speaking of record projections, I never made one.

Here it is, Jeremy’s official Phog Blog Prediction: 36-3

Doing that would break the record for all time wins in a season by KU and we’d have to get to the championship game to get there. Whether we will win or not…too hazy.

Speaking of projections, drop your projection in the comments and the person who ends up closest wins a Phog Blog t shirt. In the case of a tie, we’ll rig up some elaborate scheme by which the shirt can be transferred daily between the respective winners. Actually, I have more than one t shirt to give .

NOTE: I always pick optimistically. Since KU basketball doesn’t really matter, there’s no harm in it. Pick away.