Efficiency Preview: Big 12 Tournament

posted by DavidH on 3/6/2007 - -

The Big 12 tourney starts in a couple days. Here’s the schedule if you haven’t already seen it. Now let’s get right to the numbers. First, here’s how all the teams have been playing over the last 10 games:

Last 10 Games Adjusted Efficiency Averages
Team Seed Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Pythag Rnk
Kansas 1 69.8 3 126.6 3 80.7 1 0.9944 1
TexasA&M 2 65.1 7 126.8 2 90.3 2 0.9803 2
Texas 3 67.1 5 128.9 1 94 5 0.9742 3
KansasSt 4 64.6 8 119.1 4 97.8 7 0.9059 4
TexasTech 5 64.3 9 113.5 7 99.7 9 0.8163 8
Missouri 6 69.8 2 117.4 6 98.6 8 0.8811 6
OklahomaSt 7 65.8 6 108.9 9 101.9 10 0.6834 10
IowaSt 8 62.7 10 97.8 12 93 4 0.642 11
Oklahoma 9 61.4 11 109.5 8 90.9 3 0.8947 5
Nebraska 10 61 12 104.4 11 94.6 6 0.7552 9
Baylor 11 67.2 4 118.6 5 103.4 12 0.8291 7
Colorado 12 71.1 1 107.1 10 102.7 11 0.6195 12

stats glossary

Hey, Colorado’s 1st in something? What the… oh, tempo. OK. Looking at the Pythagorean rating, the top 3 teams here are no surprise. What might surprise you is that if I made this same chart for ALL of Division I NCAA basketball, those three would be ranked 1st, 5th, and 8th. Texas has officially joined the party. Even more surprising is that all three are top 5 in offense. I haven’t actually run the numbers on ALL teams, so the ranks in this next table are where they rate among the 78 that I have looked at. Any team with an outside shot at a 12-seed or better in the big dance was included, along with all Big 12 teams.

Last 10 Games Rank Among All Teams Within Shouting Distance of Getting an At-Large Bid to the NCAA Tournament
Team Tempo Offense Defense Pythag
Kansas 7 5 2 1
TexasAM 36 3 20 5
Texas 18 1 41 8

I’d be shocked if somebody outside that group cuts down the nets in Oklahoma City. That said, if it happens, it’s bound to be a team out of the KU side of the bracket. Any dark horse from the other side will have to take down KU, A&M, and Texas. Sorry, but nobody’s winning a tournament by beating all three top-10 rated Big 12 powers in consecutive games. That’s impossible.

I’m talking a lot about the top seeds here because I’m not going to have time to do individual game previews of the later rounds. Don’t worry, we’ll get to everyone else right after this page break. (more…)

Efficiency Preview: Texas at Kansas

posted by DavidH on 3/2/2007 - -

Click here for the preview that actually gives you some ideas about how this game’s going to be played. Read on for the one with pretty graphs and hand waving. Format is the same as last time, so you can skip the next paragraph unless you need a refresher. (And for reference, here is the original post that kind of explains what I’m doing).

After the break, for both teams I’ve included a graph that charts the offensive and defensive ratings for each game of the season. Keep in mind that for the defensive rating, lower is better. For both offense and defense, I’ve included a trendline showing roughly how each unit has progressed over the year. The dotted line shows the national average efficiency. I’ve also included the average ratings for their last ten games, to give a snapshot of how the team is playing right now. To give these numbers some context, I show where this would rank in the full-season stats, and what team’s full-season rating is the closest. (more…)

Efficiency Preview: Kansas at Oklahoma

posted by DavidH on 2/26/2007 - -

Welcome visitors from Sports Illustrated. If you like what you see, please add Phog Blog to your favorites and tell your friends.

I posted an efficiency laden preview of the Ohio St vs. Wisconsin game over at yocohoops. I’m going to do the same thing here for the KU-OU game, but with less explanation of the numbers, since you PB readers have had a couple posts to get used to them. For reference, here is the original post that explains what I’m doing. There’s not going to be a lot of analysis, just numbers and graphs. Sorry about that, but I feel Hoopinion and Chalmersfan do a much better job of that than I do.

After the break, for both teams I’ve included a graph that charts the offensive and defensive ratings for each game of the season. Keep in mind that for the defensive rating, lower is better. For both offense and defense, I’ve included a trendline showing roughly how each unit has progressed over the year. Also, the dotted line shows the national average efficiency.

I’ve also included the average ratings for their last ten games, to give a snapshot of how the team is playing right now. To give these numbers some context, I show where this would rank in the full-season stats, and what team’s full-season rating is the closest. (more…)

Efficiency Snapshots

posted by DavidH on 2/22/2007 - -

Recently I posted some game-by-game adjusted efficiency ratings for Kansas, derived from Ken Pomeroy’s Game Plan and season efficiency ratings. The Hawks’ numbers looked good, but Jeremy asked for some context on how the numbers were changing as the season progressed, and how this compared to other top teams. So I ran the game-by-game numbers for Pomeroy’s top 11 teams. (Why top 11? I’ll explain Michigan State’s case later on.) Just showing you a mess o’ single game numbers doesn’t do a whole lot of good - there’s a lot of game to game variation. To smooth that noise out and get a better idea of a team’s general trend, we can look at a moving 10-game snapshot.

Graphs after the jump… (more…)