It is that time of year when you can make a living outsmarting Vegas as the bookmakers feverishly attempt to adjust to the new season.

Or outsmart yourself.

One trend to watch is the success major conference teams had in Week 1 vs. teams from minor conferences. Case in Point: Major conference underdog (Alabama) routing minor conference opponent (Clemson). Or major conference team Kentucky taking out minor conference foe Louisville. Not to mention major conference team Mizzou covering against minor conference team Illinois. Or Colorado covering handily against in-state minor conference rival Colorado St. And, of course, Cal over Michigan St.

The only exception to this trend in Week 1’s Take it to the Bank picks was KU, which I don’t count, because the Hawks, 35 point favorites, would not have been involved in the week’s picks at all had they worn any other uniform.

The games of Week 2:

1. La Tech +21 at KU

This week’s KU opponent is a major step up from Fla International. La Tech has given major conference teams fit for years. Last week, they took out Mississippi St. Will the Jayhawks unleash the extent of their pent up fury after keeping a low profile in Week 1? Or will they continue to play it close to the vest in order to keep South Florida guessing? Tough call. But when in doubt, I take the team that was 12-1 against the spread last year:

KU

2. San Jose St +26 at Nebraska

Unlike the Monkees, I am not a believer in Nebraska in the second week of the BP era. However, I believe even less in San Jose St.

NU

3. Cincinnati +22 at Oklahoma

This would be a troublesome spread the Queen City. In Norman, what is Vegas thinking?

OU

4. Texas Tech -10 at Nevada

I have a good friend who is a Red Raider diehard. He is distressed already by their close call (49-24) against Eastern Washington. But, hey, EWU is a good FCS team (according to my Big Sky source). And you can’t put too

much stock in an opener against a no-name opponent.

TECH

5. Texas A&M -3 at New Mexico

A tough test for the major/minor conference theory. Especially considering that this is the first road game for A&M’s new coach. And having been in New Mexico earlier this week, I can attest to the fact that the Lobos are chomping at the bit to take down a flailing Big 12 team. Won’t surprise me if UNM wins this game outright. But what conference are they in this year?

A&M

6. Houston +16.5 at Okie St

Okie St even appears to be a good team from a major conference.

OKIE ST

7. Kent +7.5 at Iowa St

Iowa St might not yet be in the good category, but they are approaching respectability. As long as Baylor is in the Big 12, the Cyclones are not the worst team in the conference. In fact, they might even be better than a certain other Big 12 South team.

IOWA ST

8. Texas -26.5 at UTEP

Please, don’t throw me in that briar patch, Mr. Vegas man.

UT

9. Northwestern -6.5 at Duke

It IS at Duke. Unfortunately, in an outdoor stadium. Not Duke’s forte.

NORTHWESTERN

10. Miami (FL) +21 at Florida

Miami is trying to claw its way back into prominence. The operative word being “trying.”

FU

11. Oregon St +16.5 at Penn St

Gotta go with a major team in a minor conference in this case over the minor team in a major conference.

PENN ST

12. BYU -6.5 at Washington

Ditto Game No. 11.

BYU

13. Ole Miss +8 at Wake Forest

Another test of the conference theory. Don’t know that Ole Miss will take out Wake, but they should be able to cover this generous spread.

OLE MISS

14. South Florida -14 at Central Florida

Speaking of generous spreads–especially with USF looking ahead to the biggest game in its short history next Friday night..

UCF

15. Fla Int’l +27 at Iowa

If FIU can hang within 30 of a truly great team, why wouldn’t it stay within 20 of the Hawkeyes?

FIU

–Mark

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At last. Football. Point spreads. Who could ask for more?

My record last year against the spread was 115-92. I’ll try to do better this time around.***

The Games of Week 1:

SATURDAY:

1. Fla-Int’l +36 at KU

Usually, I don’t do games with spreads of 30+ points. One exception is when it the game involves KU. This one is money in the proverbial bank. Mangino is not going to let up in Week 1 until the spread is around 45. And TD Todd never lets up.

KU

2. Western Michigan +14 at Nebraska

Okay. I admit it. Sometimes I am as shallow as the pundits I rake over the coals on phogblog. The name Nebraska still means something. The name Western Michigan doesn’t. Especially in Bo Pellini’s inaugural game.

NEBRASKA

3. Okie St -7 at Washington St

Washington St must REALly suck to be an underdog at home to one of the lower division South teams we beat last year (you know—instead of the good South teams).

OKIE ST

4. Illinois +8.5 at Mizzou

The Illini should have won this game last year, but for a fumble that MU returned 99 yards for a TD. A team fresh from the Rose Bowl should at least keep Mizzou in sight—if not win outright.

ILLINOIS

5. Fla-Atl +24 at Texas

FAU has been talking big. They claim UT isn’t tough.
Know what? They are right. At home, UT will win. Not by 24.

FAU

6. No Texas +24.5 at k-state

k-state beat someone by 24.5?

Maybe this team.

k-state

7. Utah +3.5 at Michigan

Utah is getting a lot of play as a team that can take out Michigan in Ann Arbor. Like they are Appalachian St or something. Using the same “rationale” as in Game No. 2:

MICHIGAN

8. Washington +13.5 at Oregon

This is a lot of points to give to an ex-Golden Domer.

Washington

9. Va Tech -10 at East Carolina

Va Tech is awesome, Baby! How else could they have stayed within 3 of KU (10 had we not taken a knee at the goal line) in the Orange Bowl?

VA TECH

10. Michigan St +5 at California

Cal at Berkeley. Playing a Big 10 team—any Big 10—team. Yeah, I’ll give 5 and ½.

CAL

11. Alabama +5.5 at Clemson

Flipping a coin comes up Bam. Throwing a dart comes up Bama. Drawing for high card comes up Bama. I’ll go with:

CLEMSON

12. Idaho +27.5 at Arizona

One of the foremost authorities on the Big Sky assures me that if Utah St is not the worst team in the country, Idaho is.

AU

13. Kentucky +4 at Louisville

Louisville is simply the better program. And they have the revenge factor.

UL

SATURDAY:

14. Colorado -11 vs. Colo St

CU is on its way up. They are not to the point yet where they should be expected to rout its archrival on a neutral field. CSU always plays the Buffs tough.

CSU

SUNDAY:

15. Tennessee -7.5 at UCLA

The Bruins atone for their basketball counterparts’ loss to a team from Tennessee in SA. To the extent that covering the spread constitutes atonement.

UCLA

–Mark

***As in past years, these picks are for entertainment valus only. There are no guarantees. There are no refunds.

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Sadly, another college football season comes to an end. But as the Governator would say, “I’ll be bock” in January with the 2008 REAL Big 12 Basketball Standings.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Phoenix or Bust!

The games of Week 14:

1. Central Michigan -3.5 @ Miami (Ohio) MAC Championship)

KU’s Murderer’s Row of non-conference opponents strikes another blow for the Jayhawks.

CMU

2. Tulsa +7 at Central Florida (Conf. USA Championship)

Two 9-3 teams go at it in the land of Disney. UCF won 44-23 when these same two teams played in the same venue six weeks ago.

UCF

3. Army +14 vs. Navy (Baltimore)

Navy has scored 207 points in its last four games, including that 74-62 victory over North Texas. They have also given up 191. Army, meanwhile is 65-154 over the same span. Conclusion: Army at 3-8 is more bad than Navy (7-4) is good. The rivalry aspect might keep this game close for awhile, but in the end, Navy should cover handily.

NAVY

4. Va Tech -4.5 at Boston College (Jacksonville) (ACC Championship)

Remember the 14-10 game at Va. Tech on that Thursday night in October, when whatsis name was being touted for the Heisman, and BC was being slotted into the BCS title game? Rest assured the Hokies remember it. They will come to play 60 minutes this time.

VA TECH

5. Florida Atlantic +15.5 at Troy (Sun Belt Championship)

Another rematch. The Men of Troy won 34-16 at FAU on October 6. Familiarity is on FAU’s favor. The Home Field cuts the other way. On balance, I’ll go with a similar result.

TROY

6. La Tech +7.5 at Nevada

Two 5-6 teams looking to become bowl eligible. Had the Techsters scored two more points or Nevada three more against Hawaii, the Rainbows would be on the Road to Palookaville instead of New Orleans or Miami. The two teams are comparable statistically, with the team from the desert having a bit of an edge offensively. And the Home Field.

NEVADA

7. Tennessee +7.5 vs. LSU (Atlanta)

A three overtime game certainly CAN be decided by more than 7 pints, but a more likely number is 2 or 6. And that’s not even taking into account the possibility of Tennessee winning.

TENNESSEE

8. Oregon St +4.5 at Oregon

I remember well what it was like after Nolan Cromwell went down in ’76. KU went from being able to compete with any team in the nation to being a patsy.

OREGON ST

9. UCLA +20 at USC

The Men of Troy are back to flexing their muscles both on the field and in eyes of the betting public. They win easily in the Coliseum, but 20 is a lot of points to give their arch rival.

UCLA

10. BYU -15 at San Diego St

Brigham Young should cover this spread before halftime.

BYU

11. California -13 at Stanford

Band or no band, Stanford is no match for Cal this year.

CAL

12. Pitt +28 at West Virginia

The Mountaineers will pull no punches in their quest to play Ohio St for the pretend National Championship.

13. Arizona +6.5 at Arizona St

Some interesting trends in this series: The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 meetings, and the visitors have covered 9 of the last 12. AU is both. They also need this game to become bowl eligible. ASU, on the other hand, needs a win to keep alive its chances of staying home for the holidays. Or at least in town. The Sun Devils have been flashy at times, but have not persuaded me that they have the internal toughness necessary to run away against a single-minded opponent.

AU

14. Oklahoma -3 vs. Mizzou (San Antonio)

If I had not seen the first game between these two teams with my own eyes on my own TV, I would be convinced by now that Mizzou won the game. Tiger backers keep pointing to that game with pride, that they proved they were better than OU, because they had the lead until they turned the ball over twice.

What that game showed is that Mizzou could not handle being out of its comfort zone. They will be in the same situation again this week in San Antonio. OU is used to playing games of this ilk. Mizzou isn’t. They were fortunate last week that KU, like Mizzou, started the game tight and spotted Mizzou a 21 point lead when the Tigers loosened up first. OU won’t wait around for them.

The Sooners won by 10 in Norman. The Alamodome will resemble Norman this weekend more than it will a neutral field, as Sooner fans snatched up as many tickets as they could after beating UT in Dallas in early October. Still, even if you call it a neutral site, OU should prevail by a TD.

OU

15. Washington +14 at Hawaii

Hawaii is fighting for its BCS life. Expect them to lei into Washington like the Huskies are poi at a luau. Aloha, Prime Time.

HAWAII

Let the final games begin.

–Mark

*For entertainment purposes only. No refunds. No exchanges.

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With a Thursday night game looming here is the earlier than usual slate for Week 13.*

TURKEY DAY:

1. USC -3.5 at Arizona St

No turkey of a game here. Could be the second wildest game of the weekend. I will take the Home Dog to at least stay within a field goal against one of the country’s premiere underachieving teams this year.

ASU

SHOPPING DAY:

2. Nebraska +5.5 at Colorado

Which NU team shows up: the one that allowed 76 points to KU, or the one that scored 73 against k-state? Wouldn’t the Huskers like to push a reset button and start the conference season over?

NU

3. UT -5.5 at A&M

This one’s easy: the Aggies played KU to within 8 points in College Station. And they don’t even hate the Jayhawks.

A&M

4. Arkansas +12.5 at LSU

LSU is a fine team, and if they make it to the BCS title game on a virtual Home field, they will be tough. But they get a little more respect than they have earned.

ARKANSAS

5. Boise St +3.5 at Hawaii

By the time this one is over, there will be but one FCS team remaining with a zero in the loss column. Say it loud. Say it proud., “Rock Chalk, Jay-Hawk. . .”

BSU

JUDGMENT DAY:

6. Duke +14 at UNC

The greatest rivalry in all of sports. Game Day. Fifty-two cable and satellite channels. 720 degree coverage. Hey–it makes as much sense now as it does in February or March.

Regardless, the Tar Heel pigskinners avenge Tyler Hansbrough’s broken nose.

UNC

7. Alabama +6 at Auburn

Historically, the most bitter rivalry in college football. For REAL. But a distant second this week.

Ya know something? It is hard to take a team that loses to La. Monroe seriously.

AUBURN

8. Tennessee +3 at Kentucky

The second best basketball school on the football field in the land states its case for the Cotton Bowl

KENTUCKY

9. Georgia -3.5 at Georgia Tech

Matthew Stafford is good. So good, he would be a nice back up QB at a number of Big 12 schools: KU, Mizzou, NU, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, Tech. . .

Should be good enough in this game.

GEORGIA

10. Okie St +12 at Oklahoma

Speaking of backups, Joey Halzle will get the job done after a week of taking first team reps. Barry Switzer, the Big M’s old boss, will have the Sooners ready to play. They will put the finishing touches on a 6-2 record and stamp their ticket for San Antone a week hence.

But by 12 points? Are you kidding me? Against a team that could stay within 15 of KU at Home?

Okie St

11. Notre Dame +3.5 at Stanford

Notre Dame has one last chance to avoid double digits in the L column. If this game were only in South Bend, where the Fighting Irish are riding their longest home field winning streak of the season. . .

STANFORD

12. Florida St +14 at Florida

You can throw the record book out the window in this rivalry game. Unfortunately, for FSU, Tim Tebow will be throwing the football into the end zone—and carrying it. . .

FU

13. k-state +1 at Fresno St

What could Vegas be thinking?

FRESNO

14. Oregon -2 at UCLA

Like the other OU, Oregon’s backup QB—in this case, Ryan Leaf’s little brother—will look a lot better after a week of preparation as The Man. Unlike the other OU, the Ducks’ starter is irreplaceable.

UCLA

15. KU -2 v. Mizzou (Kansas City)

Saving the best for last. Almost always a good practice.

Mizzou would have had the edge in this game in October, before the Jayhawks learned that they could not only compete with, but beat teams on the Road—teams that had counted the KU game as a W before the season started.

On the last Saturday of November, this game is rated as a virtual toss-up by Vegas and by anyone who has a clue.

But someone has to have the edge. Who is it?

Some say Mizzou. Some say KU has been the beneficiary of an easy schedule, that they have not played anyone currently in the Top 25 or anyone with more than six wins. As if that somehow means they are not a legitimate Top 5 team. Never mind winning at a venue where Oklahoma lost while at full strength. Never mind defeating k-state on the Road when they were playing well, one week after they pounded Texas by 20 points in Austin. Never mind taking out A&M on the Road when they were playing well and were desperate to win when it was still conceivable that their coach could keep his job.

Never mind scoring more points than any team in history against Nebraska. Never mind putting up 43 in Stillwater, and handily taking out a team by 15 that had beaten Tech and k-state and lost to Texas on the last plays of those games.

Forget the schedule. KU has taken care of business the way a strong team should take care of lesser teams.

Some still subscribe to the myth that Mizzou has the edge at QB. In REALity, Chase Daniel is very good. He has a strong arm, he is elusive, he makes good decisions. But he is no better in any of these respects than Todd Reesing. In fact, if anything, Touchdown Todd is more accurate than Daniel. But the difference in the two in quarterbacking skills is so slight as to be negligible.

If there is any meaningful edge at QB, it stems from the fact that Daniel has shown that he is susceptible to succumbing to big game pressure. Those championing Mizzou point to the fact that they played OU tough in Norman. They rarely mention that, although Mizzou was in position to win that game, Daniel dropped the ball. Literally, as well as figuratively. Meanwhile, Reesing has not shown that anything adversely affects him. He shrugged off two early INT’s in his first Road start and proceeded to rip k-state apart. And virtually every time the Hawks have fallen behind this season, he has responded immediately with a T.D. drive. No matter the situation, he just keeps playing his game.

Still, I doubt that QB will be the deciding factor in this game. As they say in those PGA commercials: These Guys Are Good.

Jason Whitlock has been singing the praises of Jeremy Maclin, Mizzou’s freshman speed demon, calling him the best player on either team, and suggesting that he will be the X-Factor that separates the teams.

Again, I have to give Mizzou its due. Maclin is a play-maker. And if the game were likely to be a low scoring, 14-10 affair, I might agree that he is the most likely player to break the big play that determines the Big 12 North’s representative next week in Alamo-town.

But KU has playmakers, too. The same day Maclin took a short pass and turned it into an 82 yard TD to help Mizzou down A&M, Marcus Henry took a short pass from Reesing between two Okie St defenders and turned it into an 82 yard TD. Maclin had more separation from the defense as he crossed the goal line, but whether you beat your pursuers to the end zone by two yards or five, you get six points. No extra credit for style points. And don’t forget Dexton Fields, Dez Briscoe, and Brandon McAnderson, all of whom have recorded big plays this season—not to mention Reesing’s 53 yard scramble at Colorado.

In a game in which both teams could score in the 30’s, or even the 40’s, there will be big plays. Whether either team scores on one big play or a number of shorter plays is not going to decide the outcome. The key will be not settling for field goals.

In their last three games, KU has rolled to 164 points (54.7 ppg), while Mizzou has scored 144 (48 ppg). Neither team has a meaningful edge offensively.

So which team is better equipped to make the other settle for field goals? KU has the better defense. That much is certain. But does it REALly make a difference? It doesn’t unless the better D can actually stop or slow down the opponent’s offense.

This game is reminiscent of two games in recent years. The first, in this very stadium, being the Chiefs vs. the Colts in the 2004 playoffs. Zero punts the entire game by either team. But the Colts had the better D, relatively speaking, and held the Chiefs to a field goal on one possession. That was the game.

The other is USC vs. Texas. UT had a marginally better defense, but it was not good enough to stop the Trojans’ offense. There were some punts, however. Two by each team. But the team with the better D made one play, stopping USC on a fourth and 2, to take possession with two minutes remaining, down 38-34.

If it comes down to one defensive play, the Jayhawks are more likely to make it. But not by much.

In fact, it is likely that neither team makes a play that wins the game. Rather, one team will fail to make a play. As USC did when an easy INT was dropped for no apparent reason on what turned into the game winning drive. Missed chances to secure turnovers will be huge. Dropped passes in the end zone will be huge. Bad spots or bogus penalties called by a ref or line judge that coincidentally help Texas whine its way into a BCS bowl will be huge.

But how do you assess the probability of these things. You don’t. You can’t.

What you can do is ask which team has the better Offense overall. Answer: It’s a push.

Receivers? Mizzou.

Running backs? KU

Overall D? KU.

Defensive line? Linebackers.? Defensive backs? KU. KU. KU.

Special teams? Big edge to KU in punting. Maclin and Hereford are a push in kick returns. Place kicking is a push.

Coaching? KU. (See 3 of the last 4 year, with Mizzou favored every game.)

And, in my mind, most importantly (again saving the best for last), offensive line. It is this group, more than any other, which determines who controls a close game. KU has the edge.

Makes you wonder why KU is only a two point favorite.

Beats me. Probably because in none of the areas in which KU has the edge is it a big edge, with the exception of punting.

In sum, if the game is efficiently played, without cheap points off turnovers playing a major factor, KU has enough advantages to justify giving 2 points.

And besides, KU is 10-0 against the spread. Why in the world would you bet against that?

Lose, Tigers, lose to the Big Blue.
You’re in the big time when you play KU.
Throw the ball away and have no fear.
Tonight the Hawks will grab your tail and kick your rear.
So lose, Tigers, lose to the Big Blue.
We’ll score many points and you’ll score few,
We will stomp you ‘til you moan and groan
And you’ll wish you’d stayed at home.

–Mark

*For entertainment purposes only. No guarantees. No refunds.

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With Thanksgiving on the horizon, KU fans everywhere need to take this Saturday to thank our seniors. And juniors, sophomores, and freshmen. And coaching staff. And the players who laid the groundwork for KU’s respectability, like Nick Reid, Bill Whittemore, even Brian Luke, et al. And Al Bohl. That’s right, I said Al Bohl. He might have limped away from Lawrence a crushed dove, but he had the guts to stand up to his ultimate crusher and insist on taking the first steps to make KU more than a one sport school. And he played a key role in the selection of the Man who might well be KU’s best coach ever.

After KU was manhandled by UT in 2001, I recall Bohl saying that the next time KU came to Austin, we would bring a team KU fans could be proud of. This was after ruffling the feathers of UNC’s current basketball coach by removing Terry Allen before the end of the season and before The Big M was hired. And, yes, although the score in Austin in ’05 was not an improvement over ’01, that team had beaten UT on the playing field the year before, and did us proud for the season, ending the preposterous losing streak to NU that was approaching four decades, and culminating in an OT victory to secure a Fort Worth Bowl bid (where we put the hurt on someone else for a change).

And although I have been as proud of every KU team that has clawed and scratched and scraped in losing efforts against better teams—often much better—as I am of this team, I must admit that this is nicer.

The games of Week 12:

1. Iowa St +26 at KU

The Clash of the Vegas Titans.

KU is 9-0 against the spread this season. Iowa St is on a 4 game streak of its own. And Vegas, for the fourth consecutive week, has shocked me with the respect it affords the Jayhawks. 26 is a lot of points, even at Home, against a team that has spent the last month winning some games, hanging tough in others.

The question is: How badly do the Hawks want to win by 26+? Are they distracted by BCS talk? Are they looking ahead to Arrowhead next week?

Through ten games, KU has not been distracted by anything. This is due in part, in my opinion, to my Eric Bana theory. (No, not a reference to The Incredible Hulk—and no Mangino jokes, please. Or the little seen “Lucky You”—that ending sucked.) You will recall, of curse, the film in which Bana portrayed an Angel of Retribution, single-mindedly seeking out and causing the demise of one Munich terrorist after another. Distracted by nothing—well, except for the gratuitous cold-blooded murder of an operative who had exercised bad form by taking out one of his personal friends on his death squad.

The Jayhawks have, likewise, engaged in a single-minded week by week quest to this point. No looking ahead, no pondering the consequences of winning a particular game on polls, on the BCS rankings, or on whether they will silence the East Coast doubters. And thinking about consequences is what gets players and teams out of their comfort zone, leading to failure to accomplish the very thing they want so dearly.

To this point, the Jayhawks have been able to hold thoughts of season-long goals and consequences at bay, because each opponent has presented a short term goal of its own. Each week has brought the opportunity to exorcise ghosts of seasons past.

It started with the mid and no-majors, who have frequently derailed the Jayhawks in the past before they could even start dreaming of accomplishing something noteworthy. Most notably, the inexplicable loss to Toledo last year cost the Hawks a chance to go bowling to even the minorest of minor bowls.

This year: check, check, check, and check.

k-state? KU hadn’t beaten them in Manhattan in 18 years. Check.

Baylor? Biggest giveaway of 2006. Check.

Colorado? Last win in Boulder: 1995. Check.

A&M? Another fourth quarter folly of 2006. No wins ever in College Station. 1-7 all time. Check.

Nebraska? Yet another fourth quarter collapse last year in Lincoln. OT debacle. Not to mention 1-37. Check.

Okie St? 42 second half points in 2006, erasing—no, obliterating—KU’s 17 point lead at the half. 300+ yards receiving by one player. Check.

But Iowa St? What Cyclone demon is there to exorcise? We beat them like a drum last year. Secured our Fort Worth Bowl invitation against them in OT in ’05—in the process, keeping them out of the Big 12 Championship game. The last REAL gripe I have against ISU is their barrage of 40 foot shots falling like layups in 2001, depriving us of a share of yet another basketball championship. Like this year’s football team carries a grudge about that. . .

I’ve got nothin’. It’s Iowa St that should be out to prove something. And often the toughest opponent for a team on the rise, like KU, to beat, is one of your former peers, that will (a) not believe you are that good, and (b) do everything in its power to avoid being left behind to rot in shanty-ville while watching you enjoy a new life, a better life. Of course, we had the same scenario with Baylor and did all right. But ISU is a little better than Baylor. Of course, who isn’t?

I will not be shocked if ISU plays us tough. Too tough, even, for comfort.

But I also will not be surprised if this version of the Hawks just takes care of business, even without any opponent-specific motivation, because that is who they are.

Gotta keep taking the team that has covered every week until they don’t.

KU

2. Okie St -14.5 at Baylor

Who isn’t 15 points better than Baylor?

OKIE ST

3. Oklahoma -8.5 at Texas Tech

Mike Leach doesn’t know if the Big 12 refs are biased FOR UT or AGAINST Tech. Come on, Mike. You’re a smart guy, having a law degree and all. Here’s betting you get a fair shake this week in spite of annoying the powers that be by being crazy enough to speak the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

TECH

4. Mizzou -7 at k-state

How can Mizzou not be looking ahead? Well, for one thing, a loss here likely ends its dream of winning the North. k-state, though, will be on the same mission Nebraska was on last week to rid itself of the bad taste of being hit in the mouth with a 70 spot. Giving up 73 to Joe Ganz in his second start ever, however, makes it tough to think k-state can hang around against Chase Daniel and Co. This spread is enough to give one pause and wonder what Vegas knows that no one else does. . .

MIZZOU

5. Penn St -3 at Michigan St

In these days of global warming, it is important to go green. And Home.

MICHIGAN ST

6. Ohio St -4 at Michigan

Quick: When was the last time these teams both came into this game off losses? Roughly about the same time KU was last 10-0? Michigan is the more suspect team, having been taken to the cleaners three times this year. I mean, can you REALly see a team in the Rose Bowl that lost to Appalachian St?

OHIP ST

7. Wisconsin -14 at Minnesota

Well, okay. Maybe there is a team that isn’t 15 points better than Baylor. But who, other than Baylor, isn’t 15 points better than the Golden Gophers?

8. Northwestern +13.5 at Illinois

The Illini are so young and erratic, I would like this line in Evanston. I almost like it in Champagne. But not quite.

Illinois

9. Duke +6 at Notre Dame

So this is what it has come down to: Notre Dame favored by a mere TD sans PAT at Home against a basketball school. Would be 2-3 points on a neutral field. Would be a pick in Durham. Has the world turned upside down? Are the toilets in the northern hemisphere flushing clockwise? What next? A basketball school vying for a BCS berth?

If the Fighting Irish have ANY pride, they cover this spread. If not, it’s paper bag time for Touchdown Jesus.

Notre Dame

10. Louisville +7 at South Florida

Brian Brohm vs. Matt Grothe. A lot of points, not much separation.

LOUISVILLE

11. Vanderbilt +11.5 at Tennessee

The Vols are still in the running for the SEC’s automatic BCS bowl bid. Vandy? They are in the running for bowl eligibility. Expect the Commodores to hang around for a quarter or two.

TENNESSEE

12. LSU -19.5 at Ole Miss.

LSU tries to hold off Oregon and KU in the human polls. Ole Miss has stayed within two scores of Mizzou, and one score of Florida and Alabama, all at Home. Also lost by 36 to Arkansas. They will play tough on Senior Day.

OLE MISS

13. Kentucky +8 at Georgia

UK has fallen on hard times recently after appearing earlier in the season as if they might be the top basketball school in football. I would like their chances in this game in Lexington. Between the hedges, not so much.

GEORGIA

14. Cal -7 at Washington

In the Emerald City, there is, indeed, no place like Home.

WASHINGTON

15. Oregon St +2 at Washington St

The same seems to be true throughout the Evergreen State.

WASHINGTON ST

When the time comes for the story of the 2007 Jayhawks to be made into a feature film ( I like the title “Glory Road,” because the Road is where this team has earned its glory—and because it is worthy of the title, unlike some fluke basketball team), I know who I want in the role of KU QB.

Let the games begin.

–Mark

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First, a correction. Last week I stated that I had gone 60-0 with my picks while PhogBlog was down due to technical problems. During that time, I had shared my picks with Jeremy, and his recollection was not entirely consistent with mine. So he asked me to re-check my figures. I did, and, after further review, it turns out that I was mistaken. My record for the four weeks was actually 33-26-1.

My apologies for this inadvertent miscalculation.

My record last week was 10-4-1. You could look it up.

My record for the season is 82-55-3.

REALly.

The games of Week 11*:

1. KU -5.5 at Okie St

This is the third straight week that I have wondered about the respect KU is receiving from Vegas. However, I have profited the previous two times by taking the Hawks anyway.

This week, though, the boys in Nevada are REALly stretching the limit. They are making the Jayhawks give almost a TD on the Road to a team that, for thirty minutes last year, made KU 76, NU 39 seem like a photo finish between two evenly matched competitors.

And that game was in Lawrence. Why would this year’s game be any different in Stillwater.

For one, Okie St does not appear to have improved over the course of the time. At least not to the same extent KU has.

The Cowboys have been dominated by Troy. Not Sparta, mind you. Troy.

They have blown a 17 point half-time lead in a loss to A&M and its lame duck coach.

But those two games were on the Road. Strange things happen on the Road.

At Home, Okis St survived a shoot-out with Tech only because the Red Raiders dropped a certain game winning TD pass on the game’s final play.

They survived a shoot-out with k-state by kicking a field goal on the game’s final play.

And they blew a 21 point fourth quarter lead while going scoreless themselves to lose what should have been a blow-out (not a shoot-out) to Texas.

So Okie St and their adult coach are vulnerable even in Slim Pickin’s Stadium.

And any team that can score TD’s on 10 consecutive tries is well-equipped to win a shoot-out.

In addition, KU’s defense is better equipped, both talent and preparation-wise, to at least make OSU work for their scores this year. There might even be an occasional three and out, as opposed to three and PAT’s.

With all this said, does KU have enough manpower and moxie to win this game?

Before the season, I conceded this game as a certain L. A few weeks ago, I assessed our chances of winning to be 42%.

Because of the problems Okie St has had putting anyone other than the dregs of the conference away, because Touchdown Todd has truly become a TD machine, and because KU is one hard-nosed group of competitors with high football IQ’s, I now rate the Hawks chances in this game at 51.3%.

So, yes, I think KU stays undefeated.

But by 5.5?

OSU has had their three conference Home games decided on the final play of the game against three pretty good teams. KU’s Road wins have been by 6, 5, and 8 points.

Kudos to Vegas. They did a nice job on this game.

My gut says KU by a field goal. But since the Hawks have beaten the spread every week thus far this season, I will ride this bird until the sun sets.

KU

2. A&M +18.5 at Mizzou

How many points would Vegas need to dangle from its odds board to entice me into thinking of taking the dysfunctional entity that is the Texas Asinine Masochistic football team on the Road? Mizzou gets to pad its numbers against an uninspired opponent as it continues on a collision course with KU in Kansas City.

MIZZOU

3. k-state -7.5 at Nebraska

How many points would Vegas need to dangle from its odds board to entice me into thinking of taking the dysfunctional entity that is “N is for Nowledge” U at Home. What I would REALly like to see is a game between NU and TAM: Winner keeps its coach. Or would that be loser?

k-state

4. Texas Tech +6.5 at Texas

Even Mack Brown is smart enough to stay out of a shoot-out with Graham Harrell and Co. UT methodically wears Tech down at Home.

UT

5. Colorado -5 at Iowa St

I would buy this line in Boulder. But the Cyclones have played solid three weeks running. At best, this game is a toss-up. Five points makes it easy money.

IOWA ST

6. Michigan St +4 at Purdue

Two fairly equal teams. If you give Purdue 3-4 points for the Home field, it’s a dead even game. If you value the Boilers’ home field as worth 5 points, you take:

PURDUE

7. Michigan -2.5 at Wisconsin

Michigan’s march to the Top 10 comes to a screeching halt.

WISCONSIN

8. Illinois +15 at Ohio St

Like it or not, Ohio St, our second undefeated team of the week, just seems to keep improving—like KU. They might get their come-uppance before the regular season ends, but it won’t be in Columbus.

Ohio St

9. Air Force -2.5 at Notre Dame

Notre Dame a Home Dog to Air Force? Because the Fly Boys don’t have a 44 year drought and to end:

NOTRE DAME

10. Florida St +6.5 at Virginia Tech

Florida St is another improving team, albeit more slowly than Ohio St and KU. Last week they beat BC on the Road. They are likely to at least stay close to the Hokies.

FSU

11. Arkansas at Tennessee (Pick)

Darren McFadden, the best RB this side of Adrian Peterson, is hitting his stride.

ARKANSAS

12. Kentucky -3 at Vanderbilt

Kentucky? That’s a basketball school.

VANDERBILT

13. Florida -6.5 at South Carolina

Gotta like Steve Spurrier getting a TD and half a PAT at Home vs. the team of his youth. And middle-age.

SOUTH CAROLINA

14. Southern Cal -4 at Cal

This once looked like the National Game of the Year. Instead, that title is more and more looking applicable to the Border War (that’s right, Lew, I said “WAR”—put that in your wimpified pipe and smoke it) in the Home of the Cheeeeefs. As for the defrocked contest in Berkeley, what has USC done to make anyone think they can go on the Road and beat a good (if not as good as anticipated) team of Cal Bears?

CAL

15. Fresno St +17 at Hawaii

The third and last of the nation’s undefeated teams. Frsno has a history of playing top teams tough. Hawaii has a history of blowing by anyone who ventures into their island lair.

HAWAII

–Mark

*For entertainment purposes only. You get what you pay for. There are no refunds.

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At last. Phog Blog is back on line. And, as luck would have it, during the four weeks of technical difficulties, I enjoyed an unprecedented unblemished 60-0 run vs. the spread. Were this venture not for entertainment purposes only, you could have literally taken my picks to a Vegas bank and quit your day job. Unfotunately, the way things usually work in this world, now that my picks are back on line, I will probably miss a game or two this week. But as they say at Notre Dame, “C’est la vie.”

The Games of week 10*:

1. Nebraska +17 at KU

This line has got to be a mistake. KU has lost 37 of the last 38 to Nebraska, dontcha know? KU has beaten the three teams it has played with Big 12 talent by 6 (and survived a last possession scare), 5 (and survived a last possession scare, and 8 (and survived a last possession scare). Plus, the last two weeks, they have allowed points late while allowing a multiple possession game to tighten up—a tendency not conducive to covering a three score line. Not to mention that NU resembled a talented football team for three quarters last week in Austin. And not to mention that new blood at QB could provide them with an unexpected spark. Or that they are a desperate team, frantic for anything to redeem their season and their self-respect.

I stated in August that I expected the Hawks to win this game, by which I meant their chances of prevailing were in the 55-60% range. I upped my assessment two weeks ago to 80%. But in neither case did I say anything about 17 points. In fact, Saturday night, while the A&M game was in progress, I figured that the line for Nebraska would be around 10.5. Of course, that was before becoming aware that Keller was out. Not that it would have made any difference. How could NU do worse with his replacement—who might be a Nolan Cromwell or Vince Young in waiting? i.e., a difference maker destined to save NU’s season and/or program to the Jayhawks’ chagrin.

Seventeen points. The odds-makers have not only finally caught up to the Jayhawks, they have exaggerated the remedy in search of pinpointing the happy medium. At any rate, no more flying below Vegas’s radar.

Still, NU has not yet shown that it can run the ball or stop the run. And a lesser KU team two years ago beat a better NU team by more than 17.

Most importantly, the Hawks are 8-0 not only outright, but ATS. Gotta let it ride until they get a 1 on the right (wrong?) side of the Vegas ledger.

KU

2. k-state -14 at Iowa St

Iowa St has covered easily two straight weeks—at Home vs. the league’s second best team and on the Road vs. the third. Look for another cover at Home against the fourth.

ISU

3. A&M +20.5 at Oklahoma

Even the league’s best team never led the Aggies by more than 19.

A&M

4. Texas Tech -21 at Baylor

Tech has been outed two straight weeks. By better teams than Baylor. The Red Raiders enjoy a week unfettered by pesky little things like legitimate Big 12 defenders.

5. Texas -3 at Okie St

Texas has failed to cover two straight weeks, first against Baylor (see above), then free-falling Nebraska. Why they are favored on the Road against the league’s fifth best team is a puzzler.

OKIE ST

6. Mizzou -4.5 at Colorado

Mizzou will have to beat Colorado by as many points as KU to cover this spread. They will score more than KU, bit also give up more. Let’s say 29-24.

Mizzou

7. Navy + 3.5 at Notre Dame

For years I prayed to the football gods that Notre Dame would win this game, so KU would not have the longest losing streak in the nation against one team. Now that NU’s dominance is not only over, but about to be turned on its head (i.e., 33 1/3% since 2004), GO NAVY! If you can’t take down the Mildly Combative Irish this year, your streak is likely to reach triple digits, unless the series is called off first under the mercy rule.

NAVY

8. Purdue +7.5 at Penn St

After Saturday’s thrashing at the hands of the second best team in the country, Joe Pa needs this one to avoid the age old question about his old age.

PSU

9. Wisconsin +16 at Ohio St

Will the country’s second best team be the first of the remaining undefeated to go fall? Nah. But covering 16 points against Wisconsin is less likely than KU by 17 over Nebraska.

WISCONSIN

10. Michigan -4.5 at Michigan St

Rivalry games are always tough. Especially on the Road. The Wolverines score late, stretching a 3-4 point lead to 6-10.

MICHIGAN

11. Maryland -1 at UNC

Isn’t it nice to be the best football school among the traditional basketball powers? Although I had been hoping for a KU-UK Sugar Bowl until the team from Lexington failed to uphold its end of the bargain. What does this have to do with UNC and Maryland? Nothing. But what is there to say about these two in football?

UNC

12. Florida St +7.5 at BC

Let me get this straight: Matt Ryan is now the favorite (or co-) for the Heisman because Virginia Tech failed to field an onside kick cleanly? And this is also enough to make BC the nation’s third best team? I am not buying it. I am tempted to buy the Home Field advantage. If only it weren’t for that .5 thing after the 7.

FSU

13. LSU -7.5 at Alabama

Sorry, Bayou Bengals. You might be the REAL second or third best team in the nation, but Alabama invented the Home Field Advantage.

ALABAMA

14. UCLA -3.5 at Arizona

Home Cooking all the way.

AU

15. Arizona St +7.5 at Oregon

The most likely of the remaining undefeated to go down this weekend.

OREGON

Q. How many Cornhuskers does it take to change a light bulb?

Oops. Sorry. Still in Aggie-mode.

–Mark

*For entertainment purposes only. You get what you pay for. There are no refunds.

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The Games of Week 3*:

1. Toledo +21.5 at KU

Payback. This time it’s for REAL!

Actually, this isn’t REALly a revenge game. It is not as if Toledo last September took something that belonged to the Jayhawks. They accepted a gift. What did the Hawks expect them to do? Politely decline? “Thank you, kindly, for the offer of the free W, Mr. Mangino, but we must respectfully insist that it is rightfully yours. We are not worthy.”

Fat chance.

In truth, had the Fighting Manginos asserted themselves, they would have won by 3 TD’s last year. They have only themselves to blame for losing that game and staying home during bowl season. This year, the Hawks are not fooling around. They win by 40. Or more.

I love it when Vegas doesn’t have a clue. Or their hands are tied, because the average bettor doesn’t have a clue.

This is Easy Money:

KU

2. Southern Cal -10 at Nebraska

Nebraska confirmed at Wake Forest that they are over-rated. They can’t run. They occasionally execute big pass play as required by the law of averages. Their defense is good, but not the black-shirt D of old: More of a light-grey shirt Defense.

What is not over-rated is NU’s home field. Even though USC might be the best team in the country- at least, west of Norman-they will have trouble putting the Huskers away. A couple of turnovers at the wrong spot on the field, and an outright W for the Big Red is not out of the question. Not likely, but not out of the question. They will, at least, stay within a TD and FG.

NEBRASKA

3. Iowa -17.5 at iowa St

Welcome to the REAL World, Mr. Chizik. The world where you don’t have Vince Young. Where your available scholarships are not all snapped up by 5 Star recruits 6-12 months before national signing day. The world where the officials don’t serve as your team’s personal bodyguards, with their primary duty being to protecting your BCS dreams and the conference BCS money. The world where whining isn’t the currency that buys your way into a BCS Bowl Game. The world where, if you want to dream of victory, you have to improve your players’ skills, prepare for the upcoming opponent because you don’t out-talent them by a margin as big as Palo Duro Canyon, and make insightful in-game adjustments-rather than merely wearing your opponent down with superior players and superior numbers.

In other words: Welcome to Iowa St.

IOWA

4. Texas Tech -28.5 at Rice

Rice REALly misses Major Applewhite.

TEXAS TECH

5. Texas -19 at Central Florida

UT will have trouble covering this spread on the Road against a fired up team in its brand-spanking new on campus stadium, now that they have abandoned the old Citrus Bowl (cite of the post-season game formerly called the Tangerine Bowl). Not to mention UCF’s first ever sellout. But their depth will wear UCF down as surely as nearby Splash Mountain cools its passengers down. The final score will make it look deceivingly easy. And it will be easy enough that the refs won’t have to put the Longhorns on their backs and carry them to the finish line this week.

UT

6. Florida St -4 at Colorado

Florida St can likely cover this spread with a field goal and a safety. But they won’t stop there. Fortunately, for the Buffs, their offense will score again this season with ISU on their schedule.

FSU

7. Central Michigan +19.5 at Purdue

KU downed CMU by 45, which accurately reflected the discrepancy between the two teams. Purdue, approximately half as good as the Hewks, should be able to cover 20.

PURDUE

8. Mississippi St +12.5 at Auburn

Is there team so feeble that it cannot cover at Auburn?

MISSISSIPPI ST

9. Tennessee +8 at Florida

Oh, for the days of Steve Spurrier and Peyton Manning, when this game was easy to call.

FLORIDA

10. Notre Dame +7.5 at Michigan

What is the Over/Under on how many times ABC will show the graphic that Notre Dame and Michigan have never before both lost their first two games of the season? One of these teams will still be winless Sunday morning. Because the Wolverines are at Home and might have a clue against Notre Dame’s non-spread offense:

MICHIGAN

11. Ohio St -4 at Washington

At this point, there is no reason to be impressed by any Big 11 team. At least not on the Road against a PAC-10 team that has already taken down the defending WAC and Fiesta Bowl Champion.

12. Arkansas +3.5 at Alabama

It is always risky to take the visiting team in a close SEC matchup. Alabama is on the Road back from Perdition, but is still at least a year away.

ALABAMA

13. Wyoming +12.5 at Boise St

The Broncos will be hopping-or bucking-mad after having the nation’s longest winning streak snapped last week.

BSU

14. Fresno St +16 at Oregon

Oregon beat Michigan by 32 in the Big House last week. Surely, they can take out Fresno St by 17 in Eugene. Of course, as mentioned last week, Fresno St says it will play anyone, anywhere, anytime. And by “play,” they mean “tough.”

FRESNO ST

15. Louisville -6.5 at Kentucky

Easy Money is hard to beat.

LOUISVILLE

–Mark

*For entertainment purposes only. There are no refunds.

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After a fine effort by both the Jayhawks and your humble Take It to the Bank purveyor in Week 1 (at 9-6 vs. the spread), we take divergent paths in Week 2. KU has the easy task playing Southeastern La. St., which in no way, shape or form resembles Appalachian St. (Plus, the Hawks appear to be better than the team Appalachian St beat last week.) Not to mention that the Juggerhawks have the correct mindset-i.e., expect them to continue rolling over outmanned opponents without mercy. Between the Hawk running game, a nice group of receivers, and the execution of two capable QB’s, neither of whom intends to give any ground to the other, KU will again score at will against a team that lost its season opener to New Mexico St by a 35-14 count. The REAL question is whether KU will eclipse the 62-0 thrashing Texas Tech laid on the Lions during last year’s lost season, in which Southeastern recorded but two victories in eleven tries.

The only line I have seen on this game is 40 points. The outcome vs. that spread will rely solely on how soon the Big M imitates his basketball counterpart and sends in the walk-ons. Let’s pass on this one. (For the record, if I were to pick this game, I would take the Hawks to cover.)

Besides, there are a number of interesting, challenging games into which our teeth can sink this week:

1. Nebraska -8 at Wake Forest

Nebraska is over-rated. They are probably better than Wake, but the Demon Deacons have played everyone tough for more than a year. They won’t go down easy. They wilted late to a strong Boston College team on the Road last weekend, but this game is at Home. To me, that makes it a toss-up. Win or lose, Wake should at least cover this charitable spread.

WAKE

2. Miami (FL) +10.5 at Oklahoma

Despite its meltdown last season, the Hurricanes have high quality athletes galore. Their D will be sticky. And they are on a mission for redemption. OU is a legitimate BCS contender, but this is a lot of points to give to a team with this much talent.

MIAMI

3. TCU +9.5 at Texas

UT will likely be more interested in this game than they were in Arkansas St. They are vulnerable, but they are at Home. Until TCU proves it can go into a big time atmosphere and hold its own, I will take the points and fill out my deposit slip for my Monday Morning trip to the bank.

UT

4. San Jose St +17.5 at k-state

There are a number of questions in this game. Can k-state maintain the intensity it took to Auburn? Can Freeman avoid giving two or three cheap scores to SJSU? My guess is that k-state will have a bit of a letdown, and San Jose will knows the way to stay within two TD’s and a FG.

SAN JOSE ST

5. Rice +6.5 at Baylor

Baylor sucks.

RICE

6. Mizzou -6 at Ole Miss

I heard someone state that Mizzou was the most UN-impressive team in the Big 12 North last week. I wouldn’t go that far-not with Iowa St’s loss to Kent St. But they do have serious question marks on D-and it is tough to live on the Road by offense alone.

OLE MISS

7. Fresno St +17.5 at A&M

Fresno St claims it will play anyone, anytime, anywhere. They are used to games like this. A&M is solid, but not quite an Aggernaut. Were I in charge of the Vegas line, the spread on this game would be 10.5.

FRESNO ST

8. Colorado +14.5 at Arizona St

The Buffs showed last week that they are improved offensively. But they have a long way to go-especially with a new QB-to compete on the Road in the Phoenix heat against a good PAC-10 squad.

ASU

9. Fla Atlantic +23.5 at Okie St

Just what the Cowboys needed to rid themselves of the sour taste of Georgia peaches.

OKIE ST

10. Toledo + 3 at Central Michigan

The difference between KU’s athletes and Central Michigan’s was more noticeable Saturday night than the difference with Toledo’s last September. The question is whether this is because (a) KU’s athleticism is greatly improved, (b) CMU’s athletes this year are inferior to Toledo’s last year, or (c) a combination of the two. I hope the answer is (a), because CMU looked awfully slow and small Saturday night. If they actually have decent speed and size, and just look mediocre by comparison to KU’s athletes, the Hawks will be tough, indeed, in conference play. My suspicion is that CMU is a team with average MAC speed and strength. But until I know for sure about the Hawks-and that is still a few weeks away-I will go with (c).

TOLEDO

11. Oregon +8 at Michigan

A psychiatrist’s afternoon delight. Will Michigan respond to the biggest embarrassment in college athletics this side of Oral Roberts by asserting themselves and playing a physical, flawless game. Or will they fall apart if Oregon hits them in the mouth early and refuses to cooperate in the “Victors’” quest for therapy. This is what makes college football the greatest game in the world (if you overlook the fact that it never has had and will not this year have a national champion). But Michigan has done a good imitation of Baylor since letting its shot at a pretend national championship slip away in the Horseshoe last November. No reason to think Lloyd Carr will turn that around this week.

OREGON

12. Boise St -3 at Washington

Washington a Home Dog to a WAC team? What next? Appalachian St beating Michigan?

BOISE ST

13. South Florida +7 at Auburn

South Florida. KU’s once and future (though not this year) opponent. Getting more respect than k-state. And with good reason. They are a legit contender for the Big East’s automatic BCS slot.

SOUTH FLORIDA

14. Va. Tech +12.5 at LSU

Va Tech tries to become the feel-good story of 2007-notwithstanding being Michael Vick’s alma mater. Unfortunately, LSU has the big dogs, and they will be turned loose in Baton Rouge Saturday Night.

LSU

15. Notre Dame +17 at Penn St

Is Notre Dame REALly that bad? Getting stomped at Home bad? Forget what I said about Michigan. The Irish last Saturday was the true Baylor comparison. One thing they have in common with Michigan is Redemption Fever. The question is: are they good enough to redeem themselves? Or are the condemned to football purgatory (or worse) for the entire season? Is even there 230 game winning streak vs. Navy in play? They can’t be as bad as they looked last week. But there are better places than Happy Valley for Redemption. Like, maybe, Waco, for instance.

But 2 TD’s, and a FG? They CAN’T be THAT bad. Notre Dame IS college football. I’m still a sucker for the myth:

NOTRE DAME

–Mark

Remember: These picks are for entertainment purposes only-and I hope they are. There are no refunds.

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And Now for Some REALly Good News

The lesson for today is taken from the Gospel According to Mark, Chapter 9, Verse 1:

For God so loved the world that he gave us Football. That whoesoever followeth it shall not be bored stiff on fall afternoons (and evenings) but, after having wandering aimlessly for five months through the sporting wilderness, shall reside three months in the Promised Land, feasting on the greatest sport in the history of human-kind; nay, the greatest human endeavor of all time. Screw Neil Armstrong.

Or, to paraphrase Ben Franklin: “Football is God’s way of saying that He loves us and wants us to be happy.” Well, at least a few weeks a year.

Franklin, of course, was referring to beer, but his was a time when Notre Dame had more to do with hunchbacks than running backs. Still, he was prescient, as a Founding Father should be, because what goes better with football than a pre-game brew or two? True, he could have added “brats,” but he was writing as a Massachusettsian-Wisconsin not being even a territory at the time.

But enough scripture, history, culinary, and other academic talk. As Bocephus is wont to say:

“ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL”?

Actually, it’s a rhetorical question, so feel free to mentally envision the question mark as an exclamation point.

And if it is football season, it is, not coincidentally, time for the Phog Blog take it to the Bank Picks.

The picks will include virtually all Big 12 contests, games involving KU’s non-conference opponents (well, maybe not so much this year considering the motley assortment of KU’s non-con foes), and other national games of interest, which will generally include games from each of the five major conferences (Big 12, Big 11, PAC-10, ACC whatever number of teams they have this week, and the Supreme Conference in all the land down in Redneck Country). Not to mention the Notre Dame Fighting Hunchbacks–errrr, Irish.

Games that will generally not be included are those played before Saturday, unless the game is too huge to pass on, or it is Thanksgiving weekend. Also, games with point spreads of 30+ will generally not be included, because whether the point spread is covered by such a prohibitive favorite is a matter of choice rather than ability; but an occasional exception will be made-e.g., if KU is involved or there is some other good reason to do so.

If a game is not finished-as happened a few years back-it will count only if recognized by Vegas as a completed game for point spread purposes.

Week 1’s games:

1. Central Michigan +7.5 @ KU

No, this is not a gimme, either against the spread or straight up. After losing four games last year that were in the Hawks’ grasp with the execution of one routine play or one sound piece of game management, KU needs to demonstrate that it can close out opponents before any game can be considered won or any spread considered covered before it is played. And, although the Jayhawks generally play well against good teams at home, they were within one play of losing to both Louisiana-Monroe and Southern Florida in Lawrence last season.

The key to this game will be first time QB starter Touchdown Todd Reesing. He is a talent. Forget his height, which is just shy of 6′0″. He has the instincts of a play-maker and a coach’s understanding of offensive football. Not to mention an arm that can hit his receiver in the hands 40 yards down field while buying time with his feet when his protection breaks down. His talent level is at least comparable to that of the Big 12’s two most talked about QB’s.

But Colt McCoy and Chase Daniel have, as the Wizard of Oz would say, one thing that Reesing does not have: game experience. A lot of game experience. The kind of game experience that teaches you when to accept the fact that a play is not going to work and take your lumps. The type of game experience that teaches you, as Clint Eastwood would say, to “know your limitations.” Reesing is sharp enough to learn these things. He will have them down pat by this time next year and, if he stays healthy and holds of Kerry Meier’s challenge for playing time, will give Jayhawk fans two years better than those of the man he is most likened to, Bill Whittemore. He may even invite a legitimate comparison or two to the man for whom Flutie Flakes were christened.

But T.D. Todd has not yet had a chance to show he is either Bill or Doug. Here is hoping that he can do a reasonable imitation of one or the other Saturday night. If he does, the Hawks will cover this spread handily. If not, especially if he turns it over a couple of times in a way that creates quick TD’s for Central Michigan, it could be a nail biter both as to the point spread and the outcome.

And need I add that this might be the most important opening game in KU football history? A loss here, and the Hawks have a huge hurdle to climb to get back in the bowl picture. And the Big M can start shopping his resume. It is that sense of urgency-that understanding that this first game of the season is a “must win” game, that will ensure a relatively comfortable KU victory.

KU

2. Colorado St +2.5 @ CU

I always miss this game. You would be well-advised to place your money on the team I don’t pick. CU is bound to be better than last year, when they lost their season opener to Montana State before succumbing to CSU. My guess is that they are improved enough to take care of the Rams by 7-10 points. Therefore, my pick is:

CSU

3. k-state +13.5 @ Auburn

I would give this number some thought if the game were in Manhattan. Since it is not, I expect a royal purple manhandling.

AUBURN

4, Nevada +21 @ Nebraska

I am not sold on all the Nebraska hype. This is not the Big Red of old, even if it has had a couple of nice recruiting classes. For one thing, Callahan is neither Devaney nor Osborne. The Huskers will be a good team, though. Maybe even a Top 20 team. But good enough to take down Nevada by more than 3 TD’s?

The game is in Lincoln, so a mild thumbs up for the Huskers.

NU

5. Mizzou -5 @ Illinois

This is a telling year for Mizzou. Will they get over the hump and attain permanent lower second-tier status (not a slam-that is exactly the star that KU is reaching for), or will Gary Pinkel prove that he is permanently stuck in mid-major mode? Their offense, led by the resourceful Chase Daniel will be very good. The question is whether their defense rise above last year’s mediocre edition.

Regardless, they would cover this spread handily at home. But Ron Zook has had some recruiting success since arriving in Champagne, and he is out to prove that he is a cut above his Mizzou counterpart.

ILLINOIS

6. Baylor +21 @ TCU

You know who REALly sucks on the road?

Baylor. Even when they are not faced with the task of replacing half their starters.

TCU

7. Okie St +6.5 @ Georgia

Okie St will be dynamite offensively this year. They should not be strong enough to win between the hedges, but they will score enough points to keep it interesting.

8. Montana St +27.5 @ A&M

Can Montana St take out a Big 12 team two years in a row? Not a chance according to my Big Sky source: See Kellis Robinett’s Blog for the Idaho State Journal More importantly, can they stay within 27 and ½ points? They have some talent, and A&M scores methodically, not quickly. The deciding factor in this pick is that MSU has a new coach, which is never a good sign, especially on the road.

A&M

9. Washington St +14 @ Wisconsin

As a general rule, I like PAC-10 teams plus the points against the invariably overrated Big 10 “powers.” WSU has an experienced, savvy QB. A W would be a major upset. Staying within 2 TD’s would not.

WSU

10. GT +2.5 @ N.D.

How can you go against Notre Dame early in the season? At home? Touchdown Jesus says you can’t

NOTRE DAME

11. UCLA -17 @ Stanford

UCLA is a dark horse for a BCS Bowl. Stanford is portraying the wrong part of the horse.

UCLA

12. Tennessee +5.5 at Cal

Make no mistake about it: Tennessee will be one of many tough SEC teams this year. Cal is out to avenge last season’s season opening loss in Knoxville-and the Bears are explosive at home.

CAL

13. Purdue -7 @ Toledo

Purdue is not likely to emulate KU’s generosity at Toledo last year. Sorry, Rockets.

PURDUE

9/3/07

14. Texas Tech -9 @ SMU

Tech is not likely to emulate KU’s performance at SMU in Terry Allen’s final season. Sorry, Mustangs.

TECH

15. Florida St -3 @ Clemson

Bowden vs. Bowden. National TV. Monday Night Football. Labor Day. It will be a wild night in Death Valley. And because the game is in Death Valley, I am taking:

CLEMSON

Did I mention this is a big game for the Jayhawks?

–Mark

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It is December. And that can mean only one thing: Final Exam time.

The ridiculously difficult Games of Week 14:

1. Nebraska +4 vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Championship Game)

Should be the best crowd in Big 12 Championship Game history. I will take the team with the better D and better coach.

OU

2. Arkansas +2.5 vs. Florida (SEC Championship Game)

By the time this game is played, Florida’s chances of playing opposite Ohio St on January 8 for the imaginary national championship might already be history; i.e., if USC is stomping UCLA 2 1/2 hours into that game. Could be Letdown Town. . .

Or maybe UCLA is doing the stomping, and an impressive FU showing could move them past Michigan. Could be Choke City. . .

Either way, this game belongs to:

ARKANSAS

3. Wake Forest +2.5 vs. Ga. Tech (ACC Championship Game)

Can you use the words “Wake Forest” and “Orange Bowl” in the same sentence? I didn’t think so. I’d wager that George Bernard Shaw, himself, would find that a daunting task.

GA TECH

4. Southern Cal -13 vs. UCLA

Pete Carroll will find a way to keep the Trojans loose. This game will be over with the spread covered by halftime.

5. Rutgers +9.5 at West Virginia

The Mountaineers were not loose last week against a South Florida team that fell in Lawrence. They have no reason to be tight this week. Just mad.

WVU

6. Army +20 at Navy

“Uncle! Uncle,” I say, Vegas. I didn’t think there was a line you could throw out that would cause me to take Army. But 20 points? In the ultimate rivalry game? On a neutral field? To Navy?

ARMY

7. Air Force +17 at TCU

Another service academy as a big underdog. It’s tempting. But TCU is better than Navy and is at home.

TCU

8. Connecticut +27 at Louisville

Louisville tunes up for its appearance in a BCS Bowl.

UL

9. Colorado St -3 at San Diego St

CSU has lost 6 in a row. SDSU only 2. But the Aztecs have lost 9 of their 11 games on the season. Isn’t there some way two teams this bad can both get points? If not, I have to go with the home dog. Bad Dog!

SDSU

10. La-Monroe +3 at La-Lafayette

ULM, to its credit, has been competitive vs. what, in basketball, would be referred to as mid-majors. And KU. La-Lafayette is bowl eligible at 6-5, including a W over Conference USA finalist Houston, is riding a two game winning streak, and is at home.

ULL

11. Troy -11.5 at Florida International

FIU just hasn’t been the same since their infamous fight with Miami.

Check that. They have been the same. They were winless then. They are winless now.

TROY

12. La-Tech +10 at New Mexico St

No, this is not the WAC Championship Game. Both teams are 1-6 in conference and have 3 wins overall. But Aggie memorial Stadium will be rocking. Or am I thinking of nearby El Paso and the Rolling Stones recent concert in the Sun Bowl?

NMSU

13. Fresno St +4.5 at San Jose St

Fresno St will play anyone, anywhere. Which is why they are 4-7. However, 3 of their 4 W’s have come in their last three games. Call them leftover turkey, because they are on a roll.

FRESNO ST

14. Stanford +28.5 at Cal

This is a lot of points in a rivalry game. Even for a one win team. But Cal has to let out its frustration on someone–and it can’t wait until after Christmas to exorcise its demons.

CAL

15. Oregon St +7.5 at Hawaii

Hawaii’s annual late season assault on the mainland.

HAWAII

–Mark
_______________________________________________________________Remember, as always:
1. These picks are for entertainment purposes only.
2. You get what you pay for.
3. There are no refunds.

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Thursday’s To Do List:

1. Stuff face.

2. Watch Pro football.

3. Watch college football (on split screen or second TV as required).

4. Prepare for Friday and Saturday football.

The games of Week 13***:

FRIDAY:

1. Texas A&M +13 at Texas

UT wants a big victory to ease the sting of their loss to k-state. Good thing for the Longhorns that KU, the team that routed UT’s conquerors by 19 points (should have been 41), is not on their schedule this year. As for this game, UT is at home-and that makes all the difference. That and the Big 12 refs they carry in their pockets like so many nickels and dimes. . .

TEXAS

2. LSU at Arkansas (Pick)

LSU has nothing to lose, which makes them dangerous: i.e., Les Miles can’t choke. Arkansas is at least in the BCS Imaginary Championship discussion, which gives it something to lose. I’ll take the loose talented team over the tight home team.

LSU

3. Colorado +14 at Nebraska

On the first day after Thanksgiving , Las Vegas gave to me. . .

NEBRASKA

4. Oregon +3 at Oregon St

The Beavers are tough at home. Ask USC.

OREGON ST

SATURDAY:

5. KU +7 at Mizzou

I spent a number of paragraphs last week explaining why k-state’s victory over UT and four bucks would get them a cup of coffee at Starbucks. This week, the shoe is on the other foot. KU takes to the road to play a hated rival seven days after a glorious victory that has raised everyone’s hopes and expectations.

The differences?

First, KU’s opponent is not on a roll-or even semi-roll-itself. It is in the midst of a downward spiral in a bottomless pit.

Second, they are coached by Gary Pinkel. There is no reason to believe that he has the leadership traits necessary to right the ship and get the Tigers back on the winning track.

Third, if Mark Mangino has demonstrated nothing else in his tenure at KU, it is that he can prepare for a big game better than Pinkel. And that he can get his team to play hard every game without regard to what happened the week before. They never give up. They never let up.

Well, with the exception of the UT game last year.

This will not be anything like the UT game. It won’t be a rout unless KU is doing the routing.

Can Mizzou win? They have the motivational edge. In addition to being a desperate team trying to salvage its season, they must beat KU Saturday or they will have lost five straight games to the Jayhawks-because if the streak reaches 4 Saturday, they are not going to break KU’s hold on them next fall in Lawrence.

Not that KU has no motivation. The Hawks have the opportunity to nail down a bowl bid-and, perhaps, a decent one. Lose this game, and the giveaways to Toledo, Baylor, and A&M will come home to roost. Emphasis on HOME-as in For the Holidays.

On balance, this game should be a pick–although Mizzou -2 would be understandable because of the venue.

KU +7 is better than any bargain Best Buy or Circuit City is offering this weekend, no matter how early you get out Friday morning.

KU

6. Oklahoma -6 at Okie St

The Bedlam series is in Stillwater this year. OU wins, but the homestanding Bedlammers hang around to the end:

OKLAHOMA

7. South Florida +20.5 at West Virginia

I have made some hay this fall with USF. They are a respectable and under-rated team. They are so good, they almost beat KU. WVU”s offense, however, is rolling like a bowling ball down a luge track. Get out of their way or get bowled over. I’m thinking 45-17.

WVU

8. Syracuse +14.5 at Rutgers

Rutgers obviously was not worthy of playing in the imaginary national championship game. Just thinking about what Ohio St would do to them brings to mind the Texas Chainsaw Massacre. Fortunately, the Scarlet Knights are playing Syracuse, a team not worthy of being in any game, imaginary or REAL.

RUTGERS

9. Louisville -11.5 at Pitt

Call Pitt butter, because the Panthers are on a roll.

NOT! NOT Even at home.

That joke kills in Kazakhstan.

LOUISVILLE

10. North Carolina -7 at Duke

Like MOST basketball schools, these two teams are anxiously awaiting the end of football season. Wouldn’t you just hate to be a fan of a one dimensional sports program like these? As for this pathetic excuse for a football game, Duke better win, because they have nothing but a long, cold winter in front of them in Cameron Indoor Stadium-especially vis a vis UNC.

UNC

11. South Carolina +5.5 at Clemson

Hoping that Steve Spurrier wants this one half as much as he wanted Florida.

SOUTH CAROLINA

12. Florida -9.5 at Florida St

How far has Florida St fallen? The head coach’s son can’t even keep his job.

FLORIDA

13. Georgia Tech +2 at Georgia

The Ramblin’ Wreck might be a heck of a bunch of engineers, but they are a hcek of an inconsistent football team. Unfortunately, I have had little success with their games this year, expecting them to be good the weeks they stink, and expecting them to stink the weeks they look like world-beaters. There isn’t a more inconsistent, maddening team in the land.

Unless it’s Georgia.

Since this game is being played between the hedges, I will go with:

GEORGIA

14. Arizona St +3.5 at Arizona

AU is the PAC 10’s version of KU: Bringin’ it strong late in the season.

ARIZONA

15. Notre Dame +7 at Southern Cal

Southern Cal makes its claim to the other spot in the Imaginary Championship Game.

USC

Lose Tigers, lose to the Big Blue

You’re in the big time when you play KU

Throw the ball away and have no fear

Today the Hawks will grab your tail and kick your rear

So lose Tigers, lose to the Big Blue

We’ll score many points and you’ll score few

We will stomp you �til you moan and groan

And you’ll wish we’d stayed at home.

–Mark

_______________________________________________________________***As always:
1. These picks are for entertainment purposes only.
2. You get what you pay for.
3. There are no refunds.

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