Recap: Kansas 64 Oklahoma 47

posted by Hoopinion on 3/9/2007 - -
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Oklahoma points per possession for the game: 0.77.

Oklahoma points per possession in the second half: 0.65. (Field goals made: 4. Offensive rebounds: 1.)

Oklahoma points per possession in the second half minus Beau Gerber’s domination of Matt Kleinmann in garbage time: 0.54.

It was a mediocre offensive performance from Kansas, but mostly due to (gasp!) poor free throw shooting and impotent offensive rebounding. The Jayhawks shot 51 eFG% and only turned the ball over on 16% of their possessions (and two of their ten turnovers were committed by Case and Stewart in the final two minutes.

Recap: Kansas 67 Oklahoma 65

posted by Hoopinion on 2/27/2007 - -

I’m not sure there’s much to be drawn from the box score that wasn’t visible to the eye last night. It was, as they say, a game of two halves.

1st HALF

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU 48.4 23.5 12.2 6.3 100 1.00
OU 25.9 21.7 20.8 20.7 66.7 0.56

Unable to get the ball in the basket during the first half, Oklahoma made a concerted effort to attack the rim in the second half. This was a sound tactical decision (they can’t guard you if you’re shooting free throws and all) and happily (for Oklahoma, who tend to make free throws) coincided with the officials’ decision to call fouls on any and all contact. At least until the last two minutes when a couple of Jayhawks knocked a driving Nate Carter to the floor without repercussion and Sasha kaun got smacked across the face while laying the ball in the basket. No blood, no foul transmuted in the latter case into, Blood, no foul.

The officials turned a free-flowing if not especially well-played game into a free throw shooting contest and a free throw shooting contest chills the blood of any Kansas fan.

2nd HALF

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU 41.2 40.0 32.4 117.6 62.5 0.92
OU 50.0 40.9 18.7 61.3 78.9 1.23

Perhaps the officials were carrying out a subversive mission to undermine tempo-free stats. Each team had four more possessions in the stop-and-start second half but I don’t think anyone watching would be comfortable describing the second twenty minutes as the game’s “faster” half.

Kansas managed but five more field goal attempts than turnovers in the second half, and, aided by Oklahoma’s intentional fouling in the final minute, shot almost twice as many free throws as field goals in the second half.

GAME

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU 45.9 31.3 22.9 44.9 64.7 0.96
OU 38.3 31.1 19.7 31.7 76.0 0.92

That’s five games in a row that opponents have failed to shoot even 39 eFG% against Kansas. Preventing the other team from making shots covers up a lot of ills, especially when you rebound the vast majority of those missed shots. Oklahoma had a good night on the offensive glass relative to Kansas’s opponents, but were still 16% off their own offensive rebounding average in conference play.

On a night when Sherron Collins and Darrell Arthur post a double ziggy and Brandon Rush appeared not to want to have the basketball in his hands for any length of time, I’m not convinced that Jeff Capel found a formula for slowing down Kansas. Then again, it’ll only take one bad night against some team’s collection of junk defenses for us to ask ourselves all over again why Kansas can’t win in mid-March.

As unpleasant as it was to watch, either one or two more made shots in the first half, or a couple more made free throws or a couple fewer turnovers in the second half and the Jayhawks would have won by a similar margin as in Manhattan.

Recap: Kansas 71 Kansas State 62

posted by Hoopinion on 2/20/2007 - -

It was a sad night for Kansas State fans, all of whom suffered the 24th consecutive loss to the Jayhawks in Manhattan came at the end. For at least three of those fans, that sadness bracketed the emptiness that engulfed them during the player introductions at the instant necessity dicatated removing the live chicken from their pants and throwing it on the floor.

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU 56.1 40.7 24.3 32.7 59.3 1.08
KSU 38.7 32.6 13.7 22.6 70.0 0.94

I was right to predict that Kansas couldn’t shoot 60% from the field and grab 50% of their offensive rebound opportunities. Shooting 56% from the field and grabbing 40% of possible offensive rebounds is a lovely consolation prize. Shooting 56% from the field while missing more than three-quarters of their three-point attempts and scoring 1.08 points per possession while missing more than three-quarters of their three-point attempts and turning the ball over on almost a quarter of their possessions is the latest example that this may, in fact, be a pretty good offensive team.

The Jayhawks didn’t force many turnovers but unlike earlier in the year (@Iowa State, Missouri), they appeared content to let Kansas State dribble from sideline to sideline behind the three-point line before attempting a contested shot. They were few dumb fouls and very little dribble penetration allowed until the final minute when Clent Stewart’s running one-handers were considered a lesser evil than letting anyone throw up a three-pointer.

Having spent the morning enlightening strangers about the glories of Sherron Collins (I contend he resembles no recent Kansas player more than Paul Pierce shrunk down to a square, 5′ 9″ frame.), I’ll allow myself one final marvel: Last night was Sherron Collins having a good half.

Recap: Kansas 75 Colorado 46

posted by Hoopinion on 2/15/2007 - -

I haven’t watched the game yet, so I’ll just provide the numbers and a hearty congratulations to Chalmersfan for correctly predicting that Rodrick Stewart would score in a game for the third time this year.

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU 52.4 42.1 19.1 14.3 50.0 1.10
CU 30.0 34.7 27.2 23.6 56.5 0.70

Recap: Kansas 97 Kansas St 70

posted by Hoopinion on 2/8/2007 - -
Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KSU 43.5 19.4 19.7 65.2 73.2 0.99
KU 59.6 50.0 15.2 23.5 66.7 1.34

Some superlatives…

Most efficient offensive game of the year? Check. 1.34 points per possession. Kansas State couldn’t match the defensive performance delivered by Winston-Salem State, Dartmouth, or Tennessee State in Allen Fieldhouse.

Best rebounding performance? Check, though it takes a bit of argument. Last night Kansas got half (50%!) of the possible offensive rebounds and 80.6% of the possible defensive rebounds. The Jayhawks had a higher percentage of defensive rebounds two games ago in Lincoln but, unlike the Cornhuskers, Kansas State was attempting to get offensive rebounds. (Though, in Young Mr. Bennett’s case, any basketball-related effort appears to be nothing more than a petulance delivery system.)

Fewest turnovers? Close enough for me. The Jayhawks turned it over on just 15.2% of their possessions. Again, this performance puts Kansas State in amusing company: Winston-Salem State (Kansas TO% against: 13.8) and Rhode Island (Kansas TO% against: 14.9).

I don’t think there’s anything not to like about last night’s performance. True, Kansas State shot and made a bunch of free throws, but that had quite a bit to do with Jermaine Maybank and Cartier Martin realizing that Kansas State’s only hope to score against the KU defense was to draw contact and get to the free throw line. My well of pessimism has, for now, run dry.

Let’s hope to witness something similar in Columbia.

Recap: Kansas 76 Nebraska 56

posted by Hoopinion on 1/30/2007 - -

Due to some poor planning, I didn’t get to watch last night’s game live. Due to an unexpectedly great concert (and, perhaps, a bit too much pre- and post-show conviviality), I haven’t watched the tape yet, either. Thus, no analysis from me. It’s probably for the best. As I mentioned yesterday, it was less than a month ago that I predicted Nebraska would finish 9-7 in conference play and make the NCAA Tournament. I guess that’s still mathematically possible.

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU 50.8 44.4 19.9 23.0 82.4 1.16
NU 51.1 3.1 21.5 19.6 64.3 0.86

Recap: Kansas 82 Baylor 56

posted by Hoopinion on 1/25/2007 - -

Sometimes witnessing the simple act of putting away an inferior opponent can bring a smile to a fan’s face.

Now to the number’s that weren’t printed in the box score:

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU 56.9 38.2 23.6 27.6 69.6 1.14
BU 33.3 40.4 25.1 30.3 60.0 0.78

The game was played at 72 possessions. Per the discussion yesterday: pace up, shooting up, turnovers up, scoring and offensive efficiency both up, thumbs up.

I hesitate to place too much predictive value on the offensive performance last night as it looks so much like what every other conference team has accomplished against Baylor.

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
BU def v. KU 56.9 40.4 25.1 39.7 69.6 1.14
BU def v. Big 12 50.3 41.2 16.9 39.5 74.3 1.16

The second column, Baylor’s numbers against Big 12 opposition, do not include the Kansas game, naturally.

It was a rather thorough domination last night. Kansas wouldn’t want to give up 40% of their possible defensive rebounds every game…actually, I’m sure they would want to if doing so came accompanied by field goal shooting as inept as Baylor managed last night. The Jayhawk defense held Baylor, at home, almost 20% below their conference average offensive efficiency.

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
BU off v. Big 12 44.3 36.5 21.4 22.0 66.7 0.96
BU off v. KU 33.3 40.4 25.1 18.2 60.0 0.78

It’s Colorado in the Fieldhouse on Saturday. The Buffalos may be the worst team in any of the six major conferences. That may be the basis of my game preview as I’d be at a loss as to how Colorado might trouble Kansas in a basketball game.

Recap: Kansas 80 Missouri 77

posted by Hoopinion on 1/16/2007 - -

Real life got in the way of posting a preview of the game yesterday so you’ll have to take my word that it would have focused on whether or not Missouri was the worst rebounding team in a major conference (it’s early, but yes) and whether they could maintain their level of rebounding futility (apparently not).

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
MU 44.5 27.1 15.1 23.3 70.6 0.97
KU 56.1 18.9 21.9 28.1 66.7 1.03

Much of the credit for Missouri’s atypically effective work on the glass must go to Kalen Grimes. Grimes has always been an effective rebounder when on the court and he got to play a lot more than he had in Missouri’s three previous conference games. He’s not much of an offensive or defensive player, but the guy can rebound (16.4 OR%, 24.6 DR% on the year playing about 43% of Missouri’s minutes.)

Still, on the heels of Saturday’s game in Ames–where Kansas joined UC-Riverside, Norfolk State, Savannah State, and SE Missouri State as the only teams who have turned the ball over on at least 20% of their possessions against Iowa State–watching Kansas join Mississppi State, Evansville, and Stephen F. Austin as the only teams to fail to get even 29% of their possible offensive rebounds against Missouri troubles me.

That’s two games in three days wherein Kansas has completely failed to take advantage of significant weaknesses exhibited by an inferior opponent. With the Jayhawk offense performing inefficiently over the last 85 minutes (0.995 points per 100 possessions) and the defense all of a sudden unable to force turnovers (14.6% of Iowa State’s possessions and 15.1% of Missouri’s ended in a turnover. Entering the Iowa State game, Kansas was forcing turnovers on 27% of opponents’ possessions.), Kansas’s margin of error has almost disappeared.

Neither Iowa State (45.2 eFG%) nor Missouri (44.5 eFG%) shot the ball well. Neither Iowa State (26.1 OR%) nor Missouri (27.1 OR%) got many offensive rebounds. Neither Iowa State (8-19) nor Missouri (12-17) did much damage at the free throw line. And yet, both Iowa State and Missouri had chances to beat Kansas.

In the end, Iowa State and Missouri didn’t have Brandon Rush or Sherron Collins or Julian Wright or Mario Chalmers or Darrell Arthur, each of whom made big plays down the stretch of one game or the other or both. Kansas is 3-0 in conference play and has won 10 games in a row. These are unquestionably good things and there is no question that should this Kansss team ever get the quality of its execution to match the level of its effort they would become a formidable group.

But as I wait for that time and I watch the team play, I wonder if (realisitic) thoughts of a trip to the Final Four should be put off until next year.

Recap: Kansas 87 Oklahoma State 57

posted by Hoopinion on 1/11/2007 - -

I knew that Oklahoma State weren’t good enough to continue to win 15 of every 16 games they’d play, that Mario Boggan would continue his struggles against Kansas’s interior defenders, and that Byron Eaton would encourage further speculation about how he ever got picked for the McDonald’s All-American Game. I did not, however, foresee everything that occurred Wednesday night in Lawrence. For one thing, I seriously underestimated Oklahoma State’s ability to give up.

I found South Carolina’s unwillingness to attempt a desperate comeback in the final minutes Sunday in Columbia curious but the Gamecocks’ efforts were positively gladitorial compared to the embarrassing display of willing subjugation the Oklahoma State Cowboys delivered last night.

To wit:

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
OSU 37.7 26.8 27.6 32.1 70.8 0.79
KU 61.9 25.0 17.5 35.6 66.7 1.17

I hesitate to get too excited about Kansas’s offensive performance last night. 1.17 points per possession is quite good, but it’s not that much better than the 1.11 points per possession Baylor managed in Stillwater over the weekend. Perhaps the national broadcast last night will finally start to disabuse folks of the notion that Oklahoma State is still a good defensive basketball team.

I certainly don’t mean to imply that just because it didn’t take much effort to break down Oklahoma State’s defense the Jayhawks should still be considered the bumbling, wasteful offensive unit they were early in the year (the Florida game excepted). I am excited and cautiously optimistic that the offensive improvement Kansas has shown against Boston College (1.12 PPP), @South Carolina (1.16 PPP), and against Oklahoma State is real and sustainable.

Though I don’t (and didn’t) think Oklahoma State will win more than 9 or 10 games in conference, beating them by a greater margin than the Jayhawks beat Towson or Detroit in Lawrence is certainly a good sign. For example, I can’t remember the last time a Kansas team exhibited consistent effort and execution at a high enough level to make the other team quit. I’m assuming the Jayhawks liked that feeling and will endeavor to experience it again…and soon.

What We Mean When We Talk About “Fast”

posted by Hoopinion on 12/20/2006 - -

Tom Keegan’s lede from today’s Lawrence Journal-World:

Faster, faster, faster. Play faster. Will you please play faster?

Too often this season, it has been difficult to sit in Allen Fieldhouse and not repeat that thought.

As the table below shows, except for showing some mercy to an undermanned Dartmouth squad, Kansas has played at a faster pace than they did last night against an undermanned Winston-Salem State squad. The difference last night was that the Jayhawks just scored more efficiently than they have in any other games in the Fieldhouse so far this year.

Opp Pace KU PPP
N Arizona 75.1 1.21
Oral Roberts 75.3 0.92
Towson 75.5 1.15
Dartmouth 64.4 1.27
USC 71.9 1.00
Winston-Salem St 71.2 1.30

Unless I missed an outbreak of people using the phrase “at least they played fast” following the Oral Roberts loss, or, “It’s a nice win, but I wish they’d played faster” following the Florida game (62.5 possessions per 40 minutes), I think it’s safe to say that when it comes as part of a complaint, faster = score more.

Name That Recap

posted by Hoopinion on 12/2/2006 - -

I can recap that game in five lines:

1) Bradley, points per 100 possessions vs. DePaul: 121
2) Northwestern, points per 100 possessions vs. DePaul: 109
3) Kentucky, points per 100 possessions vs. DePaul: 127
4) Purdue, points per 100 possessions vs. DePaul: 106
5) Kansas, points per 100 possessions vs. DePaul: 90

Mea Culpa

posted by Hoopinion on 11/27/2006 - -

So pretty much everything I predicted on Friday turned out to be wrong. Kansas won, for one thing. The game was a shootout, albeit a slow paced one. Julian Wright was the best big man on the court by a significant margin. Darrell Arthur, in the few minutes he was allowed to play, was more effective than either Noah or Horford. Robinson and Chalmers had decent games but were outshined by Taurean Green. Sherron Collins looked very much like a freshman and Sasha Kaun looked very much like someone still getting over a knee injury.

And every Jayhawk not named Jon Cornish laid an egg in Columbia.

The good news is that Kansas beat the best college basketball team in the country (and one that posed several difficult matchups for them) without fully correcting many of their obvious and ongoing weaknesses. The bad news is that Kansas still has several obvious and ongoing weaknesses. Chief among them is the complete inability to handle end-of-game situations with much composure. Brandon Rush’s maddening passivity, the team’s penchant for committing unforced turnovers and guards providing needless help defense and leaving shooters open beyond the three-point line all deserve mention as well.

This team is obviously pretty good when they play hard. I still don’t think they’re close to tapping fully into their potential.

stats glossary

For comparison’s sake: 2006 and 2005 individual and team stats from kenpom.com.

TEAM OFFENSE

Opp Poss eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate PPP
NAU 75.0 58.7 39.4 18.7 27.0 1.21
ORU 77.2 44.8 41.9 24.6 16.4 0.92
Towson 75.7 61.4 31.0 23.8 29.8 1.15
Tenn St 72.0 60.2 41.9 20.8 30.5 1.24
Ball St 63.2 46.4 48.6 26.9 23.6 1.01
Florida 61.2 57.1 37.9 17.4 32.1 1.19
Season 70.5 54.6 40.6 22.0 26.3 1.12

There weren’t many turnovers committed against Florida, they just tended to be unneccessary ones (Chalmers and Robinson committing carrying violations twenty-five feet from the basket or Julian Wright attempting to dribble through the Florida zone along the baseline). Overall, though, it was an outstanding (and coming on the heels of Friday’s putrid offensive displaye against Ball State a thoroughly unexpected) offensive performance.

TEAM DEFENSE

Opp Poss eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate PPP
NAU 75.2 38.3 29.3 27.9 23.3 0.76
ORU 73.4 56.0 26.5 21.8 32.8 1.06
Towson 75.2 44.6 31.4 31.9 25.0 0.81
Tenn St 70.7 35.3 29.8 24.1 37.9 0.76
Ball St 60.9 36.2 36.1 31.2 38.3 0.76
Florida 63.7 51.5 38.6 19.5 33.8 1.12
Season 69.7 44.0 32.1 26.0 31.7 0.88

Keep in mind that opponents’ FT Rate counts the number of attempts the opposition gets per 100 field goals. Still, there’s been a lot of fouling in the last three games. Tangentially, I’m still waiting for ESPN to show a replay of Sasha Kaun’s foul on Al Horford in the final minute of regulation so I can determine whether that was the early leader for worst play of the year or worst call of the year.

Updated individual stats after the jump.

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