Not so fast, Phony-Championship Breath.

If Alabama loses, it will likely be to Florida in the SEC championship game, and the Gators will simply swap places with the crimson Tide as the conference’s almost certain representative in the only bowl game that matters.

And if Tech loses (more likely to OU in Norman than Baylor in Lubbock), and OU proceeds to beat Okie St, the Sooners will, in all probability, move past UT in the BCS Standings on the basis of strength of schedule, which is the deciding factor in a three way with Tech and UT.

But what if OU beats Tech and loses to Okie St? That scenario creates but a two-way tie between UT and Tech, with Tech holding the head to head tie-breaker.

But wait: Suppose Tech plays in the Big 12 championship game and loses to Mizzou. Will Texas then sneak into the Big Game?

Not likely. A clear bias against teams that do not win their conference or division was expressed last year when Georgia and KU were one loss teams that failed to win or even participate in their respective conferences’ championship games. If Texas does not play in Arrowhead on December 5, expect Southern Cal to magically jump them in the human polls to a great enough extent to result in a USC/SEC Pretend Title Game.

That is, unless there are special rules for Texas that apply to no one else. . .

Early line: Texas +3.5 vs. Florida on January 8.

1. Texas -13 at KU

There is, of course, no way that KU can win this game. First, it is being played a year late. Last year the Jayhawks were clearly the superior team and were unlucky that UT was not on the schedule.

This year, not only is UT unarguably the better team, there is BCS money involved. Don’t think for a minute that the Big 12 won’t send an officiating crew that understands that if Texas Tech wins out, the conference’s only chance of securing two helpings of BCS cash is for UT to also win out. Don’t be surprised if the conference pulls out all stops to clear UT’s path to a BCS bowl, including—yes, the nuclear option–assigning Freeman Johns, III to the game.

Of course, the officials only matter if KU can manage to keep the game close—and the Jayhawks have done nothing all season to suggest that it will be. But, this is college football, so anything (almost) is possible. If Iowa can take out Penn St. . .

But assuming, for the sake of the following poll that the game is close, and assuming that KU makes a play that would appear to secure a Jayhawk victory. Which of the following will occur:

a. Offensive pass interference is called against Dez Briscoe, negating TD Todd’s quarterback sneak for a touchdown.

b. Defensive pass interference is called against KU on a desperation fourth down pass by Colt McCoy that is swatted into the stands by Russell Brorsen.

c. UT is awarded a first down on a fourth and one handoff that is fumbled and recovered by Mike Rivera three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

d. Trailing by two with three seconds remaining on the clock, UT’s desperation 58 yard field goal attempt is called good despite being blocked and coming to rest at the 20 yard line.

e. All of the above.

Or “f”: the game will not close enough to require creative officiating.

Unfortunately, the Jayhawks’ blocking and tackling and other fundamentals, coupled with lesser talent, makes “f” all too likely in the absence of a sudden and unlikely epiphany. Or a serious cold front accompanied by precipitation.

UT

2. Mizzou -28 at Iowa St

There is no doubt that Mizzou will cover this spread at some point during the game. The question is whether they will allow Iowa St back within the spread as they did last Saturday with k-state.

Just a hunch:

ISU

3. Texas A&M +8 at Baylor

Baylor is slowly learning how to win. The first step is becoming proficient at covering the spread.

BAYLOR

4. Nebraska -6.5 at k-state

Next to the definition of “mediocrity” in Webster’s Unabridged Dictionary is a photo of a Nebraska football helmet.

Next to “head case” is Willie the Wildcat.

NU

5. Okie St -17 at Colorado

At least there is one easy pick this week.

OKIE ST

6. Northwestern +3.5 at Michigan

Little by little, the Wolverines are making progress. Kind of like Baylor, only without the decades of futility.

MICHIGAN

7. Ohio St -9.5 at Illinois

Payback is a bitch.

OHIO ST

8. Notre Dame -3.5 at Navy

Charlie Weis: “Where are we going? Why is it so hot in November? And what’s with the handbasket?”

NAVY

9. Vanderbilt +4 at Kentucky

It wasn’t that long ago that Vanderbilt was looking like the heir apparent to KU’s rags to riches story in 2007.

Yet it seems like a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.

KENTUCKY

10. Mississippi St +21.5 at Alabama

Alabama is the most resourceful team in the country. They will find way to win—but not necessarily easily.

MISSISSIPPI ST

11. South Carolina +22 at Florida

South Carolina has the better coach by a little bit. Florida has the better players. By a lot. Maybe 21 points worth.

USC

12. Utah St +14 at La Tech

When in doubt, find a Utah St game to pick.

LA TECH

13. Utah -30 at San Diego St

San Diego St almost took out Notre Dame in South Bend.

UTAH

14. UCLA -7 at Washington

How bad is UCLA? Not bad enough to lose to Washington. Or win by fewer than 7 points. . .

UCLA

15. Southern Cal -23 at Stanford

The best game the BCS could put together is USC vs. Oklahoma. Reason 143 why the BCS SUCKS.

USC

–Mark

More specifically, the system proposed by PB is as follows:

1. Take the conference champion of each of the BCS conferences and two at-large teams—i.e., the two highest ranked remaining teams, or perhaps a mandatory slot for the highest ranked non-BCS team as one of the two teams. This Elite 8 would maintain the integrity and importance of the regular season, a concern often cited by the anti-playoff forces.

2. Use the four BCS Bowls for the Elite 8 games on or around January 1. Leave all other bowl games in place. They would be the nice rewards for the teams and alumni, with no effect on the big picture, just as they have always been. It also results in all four BCS bowl games being important instead of just one. Not to mention three more, for a total of seven games that matter—rather than the present singleton.

It would also result in a true champion being crowned for the first time in over 100 years of college football. The sport would join the civilized world in letting the best teams compete head to head with each other for the right to be called “champion,” rather than rely on the same method used to decide beauty pageants for ten year olds, diving, gymnastics, and ballroom dancing: i.e., opinions based on inherent biases. And, worse yet, unlike these other Opinion Driven events, Division 1 football does not even present the competitors to the scorers in an equal setting. Instead, teams play highly dissimilar schedules, with a major advantage enjoyed by teams in lesser conferences, because being undefeated in a weak conference with no playoff is given priority over being 12-1 in a meat grinder conference (such as the SEC) with an extra hurdle, sometimes a huge one, at the end of the regular season.

So what’s the problem? It isn’t money. The dollars to be made from a seven game championship series would dwarf what is now in play for the four meaningless BCS Bowls plus the Pretend National Championship Game.

Nor has any rational excuse been offered by the opponents of progress. The most common of the Bogus Arguments, as pointed out in our previous post in 2006, are:

Bogus Argument No. 1: Academics

Let’s see: We have two teams play one extra week and two additional teams teams play two. In January. Between semesters.

Why is it that academics is an important consideration in Division 1 football, but not in Division II or lower? Or in basketball, volleyball, soccer, golf, and all other sports that have multiple weeks of championship competition? Is it that Division 1 football players are not as smart as these other athletes?

If anything, Division 1 football players are better suited for coping academically with post-season games than their counterparts at other levels or in other sports. Unlike basketball, and virtually all other sports, the football playoff would be played when school is out. What Division 1 schools are in session January 1-20? If there are any, it is a marked exception, not the rule.

Bogus Argument No. 2: Too Many Games

This argument is not only bogus, it is hypocritical.

This pretend concern about the wear and tear on the athlete was used as a reason for not extending the season with a playoff when there was a nine game regular season. That didn’t stop the powers that be from adding a tenth game. Then an eleventh. And now a twelfth.
With exemptions for “charity” games prior to the normal start of the season, exemptions for games in Hawaii, conference championship games, and bowl games, there have already been teams that have played 14 games. In fact, in 2002, Nebraska went 7-7, including the Independence Bowl, and would have played a fifteenth game had the Huskers won the Big 12 North and qualified for the conference championship.

Further, if there is a concern about the number of football games, why does it apply only to Division 1?

Bogus Argument No. 3: It would diminish the importance of the regular season

This argument’s premise is that EVERY regular season game now is big, because one loss can, and often will, cost a team any chance of playing for the national championship. EVERY game, the argument goes, is a playoff game. For example, Penn State just lost to Iowa on a last second field goal, and is now no more than an afterthought in the pretend National Championship picture.

The primary problems with this assertion are:

The regular season “playoff” games are not against each other. Florida, for example, defeats LSU, Auburn, and Georgia, and is then kicked out of the national championship picture because it has a letdown against Ole Miss? Why should teams like Oregon St or Ole Miss determine the Pretend National Championship Game participants? Why should teams in the ACC or Big East benefit by the fact that USC failed to get up for Oregon St early in the season? What argument is there for not having best teams playing each other, with equal motivation, and an identical task?

This “every game is a playoff game” theory has created an atmosphere of timid scheduling that robs us of truly compelling intersectional games from September through November. It is responsible for uncompetitive games between powerhouse programs and second, third, or even fourth level programs like Louisiana-Lafayette, Rice, Maine, Central Michigan, Middle Tennessee St, Appalachian St, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Indiana St, Sam Houston St, etc.
Who in his right mind would not prefer a fall afternoon or evening watching games like Alabama/Texas, Michigan/Florida, Oklahoma/Ohio St–or even Michigan St/Texas Tech or Virginia Tech/Cal?

No, a playoff system that places an emphasis on winning your conference and playing a strong non-conference schedule (to qualify for one of only one or two at large slots) would create MORE important regular season games, within and without the conference schedule-and better games..

Bogus Argument No. 4: It would diminish the importance of the other bowl games

This is the most laughable argument of all. How do you diminish something that does not exist? Currently, there is one, and occasionally two-bowls that matter, and 30 or so that do not. With the playoff system proposed here, there will be more games that matter (seven). The others will remain as “important” and as relevant as they are under the present system: i.e., the football equivalent of the NIT.

Bogus Argument No. 5: A playoff would leave only one team with a successful season

This argument is that, with a playoff, rather than having 30 or so teams conclude their season with a win, there would be only one. Every other team would look back on their season with a bitter taste in their mouths.

Obviously, this assertion is nonsensical.

First, under the system proposed here, 30 or so teams (not one) would end their seasons with victories: the national champion and all of the other bowl winners.

Second, the additional three losers in the final two rounds would not likely consider themselves losers. Just making it to that point will be a badge of honor–as is making the Final Four in basketball. In fact, it would more likely be celebrated with new banners hanging in the stadium and contract extensions for the coaches.

Bogus Argument No. 6: The logistics would be too difficult

Yeah, right! We can run a three week 65 game neutral court tournament, with 14 sites, in basketball, but can’t figure out how to play three extra football games in two weeks.

My guess is that all the brains at all of the NCAA colleges, plus the television networks, with virtually unlimited resources, could figure it out.

Or I’ll do it. Play the extra three games at one of the four major bowl sites and rotate the honor. Or play the semi-final games at one site and the final game at another-and rotate these sites.

Oh, the detractors say, but the fans! How could they possibly afford the time and expense required to make all these games?
Maybe they could–as many now do for three consecutive weekends of basketball in March and April, or maybe they couldn’t. If they can’t make it, they can watch it on T.V. I would take my chances on filling the stands with locals and a goodly showing by the participating schools. Especially if you make the tickets affordable-and why shouldn’t they be with all the TV money this spectacle would garner.

Bogus Argument No. 7: But the No. 9 team. . .

This argument is one I have never followed. If the controversy moves from whether an undefeated Auburn team is left out of a one game playoff to whether Oregon or West Virginia is left out of an eight game field, that’s a good thing.

The first team out in a two team field can make a strong argument that it was the best team in all the land and was unfairly prevented from proving it.

The argument for the No. 9 team is much less compelling. You have only yourself to blame by not winning your conference.

In other words, a controversy at the top of the food chain is important. The further down the food chain this controversy is moved the better. If 116 teams were allowed in, there would still be a controversy between the last team chosen and the 117th team. But who would care-other than the 117th team?

If you are left out of a two team playoff, it might be the system’s fault. If you are left out of an eight team playoff, with six automatic qualifiers, it is your own fault.

In conclusion, as long as only two teams are chosen to participate in one game to be declared the national champions, that title continues to be mythical. It is, in reality, nothing more than a game for the championship of two conferences: or even less if, somehow, both teams are from the same conference, or from no conference at all, a la Notre Dame.

Even the 2006 game between Texas and Southern Cal, where the BCS purportedly “got it right,” was not for the National Championship. It decided nothing more than championship of the Big 12/PAC-10. Who is to say that one or more teams from the SEC or elsewhere was not better than both? If Penn St, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Florida St, and West Virginia or Oregon had been invited to the party, the winner would have been both REAL (as opposed to a myth) and to have gained its title the old-fashioned way-by earrrrrrrning it.

If the United States of America can elect a black President named Barack Hussein Obama, maybe even the presidents of the Division 1 universities can wise up and initiate an eight team playoff because it is the smart thing to do. And college presidents are supposed to be smart—notwithstanding Mizzou.

–Mark

Or, in some cases, from the corn.

The games of Week 11:

1. KU + 1 at Nebraska

Piece of cake. Easy as pie. No problemo. Can of cornhusker. The Hawks win again in Lincoln, as they are wont to do in years ending in 8 whose first three digits add up to 2 or some higher power of 2.

KU

2. Baylor +28 at Texas

As if Mack Brown is not going to take out last week’s frustrations on the Bears.

3. Iowa St +9 at Colorado

First team to 9 wins.

CU

4. Oklahoma -27 at Texas A&M

OU. The gift that keeps on giving. . .

OKLAHOMA

5. k-state +26.5 at Mizzou

There is a reason k-state is looking for a new coach.

Mizzou

6. Okie St +3 at Texas Tech

Paging Dr. Phil.

Is Tech riding a high for another 60 minutes, or suffering a letdown? Okie St is the better team. But, then, so was Texas. And, as with Texas, Tech is at Home. I’ll take the Raiders by a two point conversion in the fourth OT. Which means, for point spread purposes:

Okie St

7. Ohio St -11.5 at Northwestern

About 3 points too many for my blood. The team with the big Z at midfield covers.

Zorthwestern.

8. Penn St -7.5 at Iowa

Which is more likely to leave money under your pillow: Joe Pa or the Tooth Fairy? This year, anyway, it is:

Penn St

9. Notre Dame +3 at Boston College

Notre Dame is making a habit of losing to those darn Catholics.

BC

10. Georgia -10.5 at Kentucky

Kentucky plays well when I expect them to suck, and vice-versa. I expect them to play Georgia tough this week at Home: ergo, it is now officially basketball season in the Bluegrass State.

GEORGIA

11. Alabama -3.5 at LSU

Jambalaya, Crimson Tide, and filet gumbo. Son of a gun, they’re gonna have big fun on the bayou.

LSU

12. Florida -24 at Vanderbilt

Florida: Southern for Oklahoma.

FU

13. Oregon St -8 at UCLA

If USC can’t stop the Beavers, what chance does UCLA have? Even at Home:

OREGON ST

14. Arizona St -14.5 at Washington

Here’s a hypothetical play-off scenario: Washington vs. Washington St for the right to play Idaho (loser against Utah St) for the BCS Chumpionship.

Arizona St

15. Cal +20.5 at USC

No way Cal wins this game. The Trojans won’t lose again unless they sneak back into the Pretend National Championship picture. But 20+ points?

CAL

–Mark

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To this point, the Hawks are 5-0 vs. the teams they were expected to beat. Unfortunately, they are 0-3 vs. the good teams, having lost to South Florida on the game’s final play, to OU in Norman (which was no surprise), and to a Tech team that proved to be vastly improved over last year—while KU appears to be substantially inferior to the Orange Bowl championship squad.

The question is, exactly how far have the Jayhawks fallen?

We may find out this week.

1. k-state +11 at KU

Until last Saturday, I had considered this game as safe. All of a sudden, it has become an at-risk game. KU has been no more impressive vs. common opponents Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech than k-state has been. Yes, KU has beaten Colorado, while k-state lost to the Buffaloes by 1, but the Hawks played CU at Home, whereas k-state played the Buffs in Boulder.

The Jayhawks have the Home field in this contest, which, along with their quest for redemption, should be enough to carry the day for a W. But by more than eleven points? K-state’s offense will keep the game within a TD and a field goal.

k-state

2. Texas -6 at Texas Tech

Texas proved it was vulnerable vs. Okie St., doing everything but losing at Home to the Cowboys. In fact, the key play of the game was an interception thrown by Colt McCoy that appeared to end a UT drive inside the 10. But noooooooo. An Okie St defender was a bit rough with McCoy, and the INT was nullified. Instead of taking possession, Okie St watched as the officials moved the ball closer to the OSU goal line, from where UT scored a TD post haste. Turned out to be a seven point gift by Okie St. They ultimately lost by four.

Unless you count UTEP, this is UT’s first REAL Road challenge of the year. Tech will score against the Longhorns’ suspect pass defense. Whether Tech can slow down McCoy and Co. is another matter.

The REAL key? How Tech handles the pressure of playing in a game of this magnitude. This is the first time in its history that it has had to prepare for a game between two undefeated teams ten weeks into the season, vs. the No. 1 ranked team in all the land, with College Game Day in town, and a slot in the Pretend National Championship game potentially at stake.

I have a REAL tough time envisioning Tech winning this game under these circumstances—unless it gets off to a REAL fast start, such as a long TD pass on its second offensive play of the game.

I also have a tough time seeing UT running away and hiding from a Home team that will put 35 or more points on the board.

TECH

3. Mizzou -20 at Baylor

Baylor has shown it can score. So can Mizzou, of course. But they will need to score 49 to cover this spread. Is that REALly a problem?

MIZZOU

4. Colorado +3 at Texas A&M

A&M is starting to come alive—at least against mediocre teams. Colorado is a mediocre team without even a mediocre offense.

A&M

5. Nebraska +21.5 at Oklahoma

I remember the day when College Game Day—had it existed—would have been in Norman for this game, the biggest game of the year nationally, and it would have been played on Thanksgiving Day or that weekend. No longer.

OKLAHOMA

6. Northwestern + 6 at Minnesota

A big time game looking at the records. Northwestern at 6-2 vs. Minnesota at 7-1. Minnesota at Home and Northwestern without the services of its best running back, as well as a questionable QB is a prescription for an easy cover by:

MINNESOTA

7. Wisconsin +5 at Michigan St

Wisconsin has not been too kind to me this season. They cover when I pick against them. They fail to cover when I take them. Meaning they will cover this week, because my pick is:

Michigan St

8. Duke +7.5 at Wake Forest

Duke is fading weakly as the season progresses. What the heck: it’s basketball season.

WAKE

9. Pitt +5.5 at Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish will be in the hunt for all the Pretend Marbles next year.

NOTRE DAME

10. Tulsa -7 at Arkansas

There was a time when a Tulsa victory over Arkansas would have constituted an upset of major proportions. This year, not so much.

TULSA

11. Tennessee +6 at South Carolina

The Gamecocks don’t beat anyone by much. The Vols don’t beat anyone. . .

SOUTH CAROLINA

12. Florida -5.5 at Georgia

The one team no one wants to play for the PNC.

FLORIDA

13. Oregon +3 at Cal

Cal at Home is a Bear.

CALIFORNIA

14. Arizona St +14 at Oregon St

Two teams headed in the opposite direction. Like ships passing in the night. To the extent there are ships in the desert. And except for the Beaver Ship ramming the Sun Devil Ship, sending it to its watery or sandy grave.

OREGON ST

15. Utah -7.5 at New Mexico

Last week’s Gimme of the Week didn’t go so well. Utah St gave Fresno everything it wanted, beating a 16.5 point spread by 14.5 points. Nor would it have been better to have played the other Usual Suspect, as Idaho not only came within the 14 points they were allotted vs. New Mexico St, they actually won the game outright, 20-14. So what is there to believe in anymore? Washington St? Maybe. But can Stanford beat ANYONE by thirty points—even what might be the worst team in the FBS?
Let’s try the other route; i.e., playing a mismatch because one of the teams is a juggernaut rather than a patsy. I’ll take the juggernaut.

UTAH

–Mark

The ultimate achievement, of course, would be a second consecutive trip to a BCS bowl—which is in the proverbial bag if the Hawks win out, including the Big 12 championship game.

Not likely? Not the way the defense has looked this season. But there are other bowl games worthy of attaining. Especially if the Big 12 sends two teams to the BCS, which is a distinct possibility. Making this week’s game vs. Texas Tech, a peer Bowl competitor, huge.

The games of Week 9:

1. Texas Tech +1.5 at KU

Two fantastic offenses. Two less than fantastic defenses. Two unspecial special teams. KU’s D appears to have a slight edge, but the REAL edge is the Home field, where the Hawks have won their last 13 games. Tech would have the edge in Lubbock. But they will have to wait a year for it.

KU

2. Oklahoma -19 at k-state

What goofball set this line? OU should cover this spread by halftime.

OU

3. Baylor +11 at Nebraska

This is a tough one. So that I must resort to Rule No. 23 of college football prognosticating: When in doubt, doubt Baylor.

NU

4. Okie St +13 at Texas

Texas might be the most improved team in the country. And they are on a roll.

TEXAS

5. Colorado +22 at Mizzou

If I were not committed to picking all big 12 games, I wouldn’t touch this one. Mizzou has been exposed and is in free fall. A loss here sets the program back 20 years. Fortunately for them, they get to regain their swagger at Home. Might be a slow first quarter. But once they taste a little success, don’t expect Pinkel to call off the dogs before the separation is well past the point spread.

MIZZOU

6. Texas A&M +3 at Iowa St

A&M is bad, but they are a little less bad each week. Iowa St, on the other hand, appears to have peaked three weeks ago—when it led KU by 20 at the half. It hasn’t had much go right since then.

A&M

7. Penn St -2.5 at Ohio St

Same song, umpteenth verse: I will ride Penn St until they give me a reason not to. Ohio St in Columbus is tempting, but they aren’t going to get in the way of JoePa’s last stand.

PENN ST

8. Illinois -2.5 at Wisconsin

Wisconsin can’t sink any lower, can they? Or will they?

ILLINOIS

9. Notre Dame -11 at Washington

How bad is Washington? We might not REALly know until they play their truly dreadful in-state rival for the Apple Cup.

NOTRE DAME

10. Kentucky +24.5 at Florida

Florida is a far superior team, and the game is in The Swamp. But Kentucky can put points on the board. If they score 24, the Gators have to score 49 to cover.

UK

11. Georgia +2 at LSU

Georgia is the better team, but LSU in Baton Rouge is a tall order. If this game were one of those crazy magical night parties in the bayou, I would have to go with the Bengals. With a mid-afternoon start, the air will hold just a little less magic.

GEORGIA

12. Alabama -6.5 at Tennessee

The Crimson Tide has the best win of the college football season in its romp at Georgia. Its season opener at Clemson wasn’t too shabby, either, notwithstanding the fact that Clemson was vastly overrated. Still, Bama, has been anything but a juggernaut against lesser teams—like Tennessee.

TENNESSEE

13. Virginia Tech +5 at Florida St

Speaking of teams that are not juggernauts: I give you Florida St.

VT

14. Southern Cal -16 at Arizona

USC is the best team in the country when they pay attention. Which they have since the Oregon St debacle.

USC

15. Fresno St -16.5 at Utah St

Couldn’t decide whether to pick against Utah St in this game or against Idaho (+14 vs. New Mexico St) as the freebie of the week. Both teams are at Home. Idaho gives fewer points. But Fresno is the better opponent. Idaho might actually compete into the fourth quarter. Utah St might compete into the second.

FRESNO ST

Hey, Wreck, Texas Tech!

–Mark

The early line on this game was 14. That was a tough line, what with OU looking for redemption AND playing at Home. OU has lost but two Home games during Stoops’ tenure. This Saturday is not likely to be No. 3. However, at 20 points, this should be an easy cover for a team with the Big 12’s best QB and a running game and D that are both improving weekly. The Hawks can score 28 on the Sooners’ D—meaning OU will need 49 to beat the spread.

KU

2. k-state +3 at Colorado

Will Colorado allow k-state to stretch the Buffs’ losing streak to four? In Boulder? With all the talk about the QB rich Big 12, CU is not sharing the wealth. Cody Hawkins is a Big Sky QB in Big 12 clothing. With the points, I will take:

k-state

3. Mizzou +6 at Texas

Texas has two advantages in this game: Superior athletes and the Home Field. Mizzou has the edge in motivation, being a desperate team after losing for the first time in two years to a team not named the Sooners. With the inevitable let down by UT after its epic struggle with Oklahoma last weekend, Mizzou will not go down quietly. To win, Daniel will have to perform well in the clutch. Not likely. However, staying close does not require poise under pressure.

MIZZOU

4. Texas Tech -21 at Texas A&M

How dismal is A&M?

TEXAS TECH

5. Baylor +17 at Okie St

Okay, so Baylor isn’t the worst team in the Big 12. And Okie St will have a let down. Could be a close game into the third quarter. However, until Baylor shows it can take its newfound prowess on the road:

OKIE ST

6. Nebraska -7 at Iowa St

Nebraska has finally reached the status of a truly mediocre program: i.e., one that can play over its head for sixty minutes one week and ALMOST beat a better team, then fold against a bad team the next. Long-time KU fans are familiar with this syndrome. ISU wins this game outright.

IOWA ST

7. Wisconsin +3.5 at Iowa

Wisconsin is shell shocked after two flukey losses and a royal butt-kicking by Penn St. If the Badgers have any character at all, the bleeding will stop in Iowa City.

WISCONSIN

8. Ohio St -3.5 at Michigan St

The Buckeyes are not a great team. They are, however, a resourceful one. Perhaps the most resourceful college football team of the modern era. If this game is close in the final minutes, they will find a way to win. Whether by 3 or 4 is the question.

OHIO ST

9. Michigan +23 at Penn St

Penn St is on a roll that could lead to Miami in January. Michigan seems to get worse every week. The game is in State College. What’s not to like?

PENN ST

10. Arkansas +10 at Kentucky

Pay no attention to that win over Auburn. That game revealed more about Auburn than Arkansas.

KENTUCKY

11. Ole Miss +13 at Alabama

The Tide is a legitimate threat to play for the pretend national championship. But they are not a juggernaut.

OLE MISS

12. Idaho +20 at La-Tech

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Picking against Idaho has been a reliable way of scoring against Vegas thus far this season. The Vandals have shown no measure of improvement with the passing weeks. I’ll go to this well one more time.

IDAHO

13. Utah St +21 at Nevada

Speaking of reliability, I offer Exhibit 2: Utah St.

NEVADA

14. Oregon St -14 at Washington

Washington is the Michigan of the PAC-10. Oregon St is not the West Coast’s version of Penn St, but they don’t have to be to cover 14 points.

OREGON ST

15. Colorado St +21 at Utah

Utah is taking no prisoners. If they score to go up 35 in the final minute, don’t be surprised to see an on-side kick.

Boom the Sooners!

–Mark

I readily took ISU +13 points last week. And ISU is probably a step below Colorado in the Big 12 hierarchy.

However, KU played Iowa St on the Road. It was the Cyclones’ conference opener. CU has neither of those edges. Oh, you might consider being on a humbling two game losing skid a motivational edge, that it might lead to the Buffs being focused on redemption.

However, CU is not known as a great Road team. And the Jayhawks may have had their Davidson moment in Ames. If they are not ready to play 60 minutes this week and hit their stride in their conference Home opener, this is not a Mangino team. From henceforth refer to the Hawks by the initials PBA, because, behind the Big 12’s best QB, they are starting to roll.

KU

2. Texas +7 at Oklahoma

This could be a butt whipping of Biblical proportions. UT will only go so far without a running attack and a porous pass defense. Not to mention the Stoops vs. Brown thing. Where is Vince Young when you need him?

OU

3. Iowa St +4.5 at Baylor

The Home team wins this game. ISU would win if it were in Ames. The question is whether Baylor wins by a field goal or a TD. Although I have a good friend who says he never takes Baylor—ever–I say they win this game by a field goal and a safety.

BAYLOR

4. k-state -3.5 at Texas A&M

Imagine losing at Home 58-28, then being favored the following week in Texas. You would assume you were playing in Denton, right? Wrong. You are in College Station playing what is historically the Lone Star State’s No. 2 team. This year, perhaps, its No. 7 team. Still, a W on the Road for this k-state team led by Prince and Freeman? By more than a FG? As bad as A&M is, it could happen. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

A&M

5. Okie St +14 at Mizzou

Okie St could catch Mizzou looking ahead to next week when the Tigers get their first chance of 2008 to make a statement—a statement that they can play with the big boys away from Home. This week, they have to settle for playing a team of smaller boys coached by a man. I might like Okie St and its high powered offense to win this game outright in Stillwater. But when has Gundy-man ever have his boys ready to play a big Road game? Fourteen is a lot of points, but The cowBOYS will make just enough big game and Road-induced mistakes to avoid staying in that range.

MIZZOU

6. Nebraska +21 at Texas Tech

Bo knows blow-outs. If the Huskers can’t slow down Mizzou at Home, what are they going to do against Harrell, Crabtree and Co. on the Road?

TEXAS TECH

7. Minnesota +12 at Illinois

Why would Minnesota have more success vs. Illinois in Champagne than Michigan had in Ann Arbor?

ILLINOIS

8. South Carolina at Kentucky (Pick)

Who woulda thunk that the two best Big Blues in college football would be the two pre-eminent basketball programs of all time?

UK

9. Vanderbilt -2.5 at Miss St

Vandy is dandy. And quicker.

VANDERBILT

10. Arizona St +27.5 at Southern Cal

USC has had its last hiccup before January—barring re-entry into the pretend national championship race.

USC

11. Notre Dame +7 at UNC

Yet another blue clad member of the basketball elite leap-frogging over a traditional football power. Heck, THE traditional football power.

UNC

12. New Mexico +23.5 at BYU

I am trying to make a case for New Mexico St to cover this Vegas spread. I’m having no more success than O.J.’s attorneys had with a Vegas jury. . .

BYU

13. Penn St -5 at Wisconsin

Wisconsin will defend its turf like a pack of rabid Badgers to keep from losing its third straight game and facing the prospect of being relegated to a third tier bowl game. Still, I will remain on Mr. Joe’s Wild Ride until given a reason to get off.

PENN ST

14. LSU +6 at Florida

If Ole Miss can win in the Swamp, should be easy for the defending pretending national champions. Right?

Uh, no. The two time losers from last year take it on the chin for the first time this year—and it will not even require overtime.

LSU

15. Tulsa -25 at SMU

Twenty five points on the Road is almost unheard of. Unheard FROM is SMU’s Defense.

TULSA

–Mark

Home dogs, that is.

The only Home favorite in the six Big 12 games this first week of conference play is Okie St, giving 24 ½ points to Texas A&M. In four other games, the Home team is a double digit underdog.

Evidently, Vegas has noted that taking the favored tem has been a winning proposition thus far this year, both in the Big 12 and elsewhere, and has adjusted accordingly. The big question, time and again this week, is whether it has over adjusted in the opposite direction.

The games of Week 6:

1. Kansas –13 at Iowa St

A major obstacle in making the transformation from being a traditionally mediocre or bad program to becoming a strong program in any sport is separating from your peers. Whereas your historical mediocrities like Iowa St, k-state, Colorado, Mizzou, and Baylor readily accept their inherent inferiority to the Oklahomas, Texases and Nebraskas of the world , they will clutch and scratch and claw and scrape to their final breath to avoid being left behind by a member of their peer group—as KU is threatening to do.

This game opened at KU -14. Thirteen is better. Still, this is a Road game vs. a team that is becoming more cohesive on a weekly basis. In its last outing, the Cyclones roared back from a 21 point deficit on the Road to send its game at UNLV into overtime, capped by a clutch 90+ yard drive in the final two minutes.

The Jayhawks are better than UNLV, no doubt. Good enough that they should beat Iowa St in Ames. But by 14 points?

Not likely, as sky-high as ISU will be, playing a Top 20 team at Home in its conference opener. Not unless the Hawks have greatly improved their pass rush and running game, probably not. It is certainly possible, what with two weeks to prepare for this game. But that is not the way to bet. I mean, as great as last year’s team was, who did they beat on the Road by 14? Well, there was Okie St 43-28. That’s it.

ISU

2. Texas Tech -7.5 at k-state

At first blush, this game looks like easy money. Tech is 14-17 points better than Prince’s Purple people on a neutral field. Right?

Right. Still, the Red Raiders had a tough time with Eastern Washington in Lubbock. Not to mention their propensity for pulling a cropper on the road. Or that k-state has handled a bigger name from the Lone Star State two years running.

Vegas is about two points off with this line. Should be Tech -9.5. Meaning that giving only 7.5 is value.

TEXAS TECH

3. Mizzou -11 at Nebraska

Ganz put up 70 last year vs. k-state. He could lead the Huskers to 40+ against Mizzou’s defense. And, playing a Top 5 team coming off a loss to Virginia Tech, the Huskers will be focused. Plus, if there is one thing tougher than separating from a peer, it is separating from a better, which is Mizzou’s task Still, Mizzou has the upper hand this year and two weeks to prepare. This will be a single digit game late in the fourth quarter. Last team to score covers the spread.

NEBRASKA

4. Oklahoma -27.5 at Baylor

Until the Sooners give me a reason to doubt them, I won’t.

OU

5. Texas A&M +24.5 at Okie St

A is for Atrocious. M for Miserable.

OKIE ST

6. Texas -14 at Colorado

Another Home team on a mission, following the Buffs’ loss in Tallahassee last Saturday. Not to mention playing a Top 5 team. You can ask OU about being a Top 5 team playing in Boulder.

COLORADO

7. Penn St-13 at Purdue

See Oklahoma at Baylor.

PENN ST

8. UConn +7 at UNC

A Tar Heel let down, perhaps, after their big win in Miami? Or are they on a roll?

UNC

9. Stanford +7.5 at Notre Dame

Would you believe these two teams used to be good? Great even?

The Fighting Irish are closer to being there again. And at Home.

NOTRE DAME

10. Illinois +2.5 at Michigan

Despite their fluke win last week vs. Wisconsin, Michigan has a long way to go to stop sucking.

ILLINOIS

11. Florida -24.5 at Arkansas

Not that Michigan sucks as much as Arkansas.

FLORIDA

12. Washington St +17 at UCLA

Why would I expect UCLA to beat anyone by more than 17 points anywhere?

13. Ohio St -2.5 at Wisconsin

Two straight losses for Wisconsin? This one in Madison? In another day, when Ohio St was good.

WISCONSIN

14. Oregon +16.5 at USC

Hell hath no fury like a Trojan scorned.

USC

15. Hawaii +22.5 at Fresno St

There is trouble in paradise.

–Mark

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At this moment, after 60 games–discarding the three games that have been pushes and the Texas/Arkansas game that was postponed due to Hurricane Ike—and taking into account the House’s 5% commission on each bet, the USA would have a 36-20 record and be up 660 billion dollars. That’s almost enough to bail out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman, Merrill, and AIG, without risking the taxpayer’s hard earned dollars.

But nooooooooo. . .

Let’s risk the taxpayers’ money on risky ventures like investments banks, financial firms, and insurance companies.

Let’s see if either presidential candidate is insightful enough to propose this solution to the current financial crisis. Whoever does is truly thinking outside the traditional Washington/Wall Street box—a maverick, if you will—and is worthy of your vote.

Please, no comments that this theory is flawed, because Vegas would not be able to withstand almost seven hundred billion dollars in losses in four weeks. No worries. The government simply buys every casino in Vegas with the money it wins in the succeeding four weeks. And with the government running all the casinos, we might even be looking at middle class tax breaks. A win-win if ever there was one.

How unfortunate that these picks are for entertainment purposes only.

The Games of week 5:

1. TCU +17.5 at Oklahoma

I’m riding the Sooner Schooner until OU gives me a reason to do otherwise.

OU

2. Colorado +5.5 at Florida St

The Seminoles have given me no reason to suspect that they are a good team. I took Wake Forest +4 last week, and the Deamon Deacons won convincingly in Tallahassee. Meanwhile, Colorado was taking down West Virginia in Boulder. This week, CU gets 5.5 points. Easy pick, right?

Right. FSU ridin’ the Redemption Train.

FLORIDA ST

3. Troy +17 at Okie St

Troy lost on the Road last Saturday by 18 to Ohio St. This OSU is better.

OKIE ST

4. La-Lafayette +21 at k-state

k-state has been exposed. They are probably good enough to win this game at Home. But by 3 TD’s? Not bloody likely.

ULL

5. Arkansas +27.5 at Texas

Texas is on a mission. Lesser teams beware. I took UT -24 two weeks ago, when this game was postponed. The extra 3 ½ points are not a deal breaker.

6. Army +28.5 at Texas A&M

It is not as if A&M is good. But, good grief, is Army ever bad. . .

TEXAS A&M

7. Pitt -15 at Syracuse

There are two teams I like every week: Oklahoma and whoever is playing Syracuse.

PITT

8. UNC +7.5 at Miami

Slowly, but surely, UNC is improving. Miami is improving faster.

MIAMI

9. Ole Miss +23.5 at Florida

What part of Tim Tebow and The Swamp don’t you understand?

FLORIDA

10. Minnesota +18 at Ohio St

Ohio St: the most overrated team in the nation three years running.

MINNESOTA

11. Alabama +7 at Georgia

The Crimson Tide would win this game outright at Home. They won’t go down easy between the hedges.

ALABAMA

12. Wisconsin -6 at Michigan

Michigan will be good again in time. The key phrase being “in time.”

WISCONSIN

13. Fresno St -7 at UCLA

Fret not, UCLA fans. October 15 is just around the corner.

FRESNO ST

14. Illinois +14 at Penn St

Vegas still hasn’t caught on to Penn St—they are this year’s KU.

PENN ST

15. Idaho +11 at San Diego St

Did I say OU and whoever’s playing Syracuse? Make that Syracuse OR Idaho.

SAN DIEGO ST

–Mark

Still, the PhogBlog Handicapping Service stands unfazed by this challenge. In fact, we welcome it. We scoff at Vegas as if it were the illegitimate child of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and had brothers named Lehman, Merrill and Iggy.

You might notice that the KU scrimmage vs. Sam Houston State is not included in this week’s picks. In the past, when there has been no official line on a KU game, I have devised a reasonable one to ensure having the KU game in the mix. This week, though, there is no reasonable line. This is truly a name the score game. What kind of line would make sense: 35? 42? 50? 60? Whatever the Big M wants, he will get. And I don’t claim to be a mind reader. Ergo,

The Jayhawk-less Games of Week 4:

1. Miami (Fl) -4 at Texas A&M

The team that cost Franchione his job takes on A&M again—this time in College Station. When I mentioned that there were a number of legitimate lines this week, I didn’t mean they all were. . .

2. Rice +30.5 at Texas

The thing is, we don’t usually do 30+ point games. But here’s what happened: This spread is so seductive, I made an exception. You’ll thank me later.

UT

3. Iowa St +3 at UNLV

Iowa St is on the way to being a respectable team. Do away with a few correctable mistakes, and they are in last Saturday’s game at Iowa to the bitter end. Unfortunately, the end was still bitter. I might be a wee bit apprehensive about them when the Hawks visit Ames two weeks hence. But I don’t see them as ready to win on the Road yet.

UNLV

4. Temple +28.5 at Penn St

Like I said, not ALL of the lines are legit. Vegas has yet to wise up to the rising juggernaut in State College.

PENN ST

5. Ohio +11 at Northwestern

Don’t be fooled by Ohio playing their in-state rivals tough in Columbus. If the Buckeyes have not been exposed by now, what will it take? They were last year, and still are, KU-lite.

NORTHWESTERN

6. LSU -3 at Auburn

Ouch, Vegas. I REALly prefer easy lines. I am reluctant to go against Auburn as a Home dog, but until they can pull a Mizzou and Show Me they can win a game of this magnitude, what choice do I have?

LSU

7. Alabama -9 at Arkansas

Maybe Vegas just has an SEC thing. The Crimson Tide should roll over the dismal Hogs. But Arkansas, even when bad, has a penchant for not rolling over at Home.

ALABAMA

8. Va Tech +1.5 at UNC

Is UNC developing into a team that Psycho T can be proud of? Or is Rutgers just that bad? I will go with the Home team in the shadow of the Roy Dome.

UNC

9. Wake Forest +4 at Florida St

Three years into the Demon Deacons’ resurgence (or insurgence as the case may be), Vegas has still yet to Wake up. You might say, they can’t see the Forest for the trees. W.F. might not beat FSU, but they are hard-nosed competitors. This game will not get out of hand.

WAKE

10. Notre Dame +8.5 at Michigan St

The Fighting Irish are taking baby steps toward becoming the Fighting Irish again. Staying within a TD in East Lansing is the next step.

NOTRE DAME

11. Wyoming +29 at BYU

I had to pass on Boise St +11.5 at Oregon and AU +2 t UCLA to make room for this game. But there are enough difficult lines this week. So let’s do the game that makes you scratch your head and say, “Helloooooooooo! Earth to Vegas: Anybody home? You do realize that this game is in Provo, not Laramie, don’t you? You’re aware that last weekend, BYU hung 59 on the team that took out Tennessee in Week 1? That they don’t stop scoring just because they get ahead by four TD’s or so? You have been paying attention. Or have you?

BYU

12. Utah -7 at Air Force

Oops. Don’t tell anyone, but this is another Vegas faux pas. (That rhymes with Joe Pa for you k-staters).

UTAH

13. Idaho +4.5 at Utah St

This is what ABC wanted USC/Ohio St to be. The top two teams in the country going at each other.

Bizarro ABC that is.

That said, why would one expect one of the two worst teams in Division 1 to stay within 5 points of anyone on the Road? Even the other?

If it were but on a neutral field—say a blue field in Boise—this would be a classic.

UTAH ST

14. Florida -7.5 at Tennessee

Somebody check Vegas’s meds. Its bipolar pills are not working. It vacillates between happy-go-lucky, devil may care, what-me-worry spreads to ones—like this—that are absolutely diabolical. If my only concern were finding the easiest games to pick, this one would find its way to the cutting room floor. But without a few challenges, it would be no fun, right? Gotta believe that the Vols can stay within a TD of almost anyone at Home. That extra ½ point is the difference-maker.

TENNESSEE

15. Georgia -6.5 at Arizona St

Another sick line. Wouldn’t be if Georgia had thus far resembled the Pretend National Championship contender it was reputed to be ever since dispensing of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl. But the Bulldogs have not yet looked like a team that can go on the Road and take out a competitive BCS conference team by a full TD. Or is ASU a competitive BCS team? Sure didn’t look like one last Saturday vs. UNLV. Or were the Sun Devils caught looking ahead? A lot of unanswered questions make this a tough game to figure. I will take UGA to wear ASU down and pull out to a two score lead in the waning moments.

GEORGIA

–Mark